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NCAA championship confidence

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7 hours ago, 1032004 said:

You can't require what won't be allowed until later. @RichB was just saying it's not likely young healthy athletes will be in line for vaccinations during the early spring.

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11 hours ago, gimpeltf said:

You can't require what won't be allowed until later. @RichB was just saying it's not likely young healthy athletes will be in line for vaccinations during the early spring.

Exactly. Spencer lee may get it before 20,000 other Hawkeye undergrads, But I doubt will he get it before the workers at their famous children's hospital. (and the patients themselves once vaccines are cleared for them.)

Do any colleges require Flu Shots for wrestlers? Lehigh's experience in 1978 should have been educational 

 

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6 minutes ago, RichB said:

Exactly. Spencer lee may get it before 20,000 other Hawkeye undergrads, But I doubt will he get it before the workers at their famous children's hospital. (and the patients themselves once vaccines are cleared for them.)

Do any colleges require Flu Shots for wrestlers? Lehigh's experience in 1978 should have been educational 

 

There was no requirement when I wrestled.  I think flu shots will soon become a requirement at most universities following this pandemic though because the same technology that delivered the covid vaccine is going to greatly increase the efficacy of the flu shot. 
 

The estimates are that most healthcare workers will be vaccinated soon due to the mass pre production of doses, so by March it’s entirely feasible that the vaccine is available to college students and student athletes. 

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4 hours ago, Billyhoyle said:

There was no requirement when I wrestled.  I think flu shots will soon become a requirement at most universities following this pandemic though because the same technology that delivered the covid vaccine is going to greatly increase the efficacy of the flu shot. 
 

The estimates are that most healthcare workers will be vaccinated soon due to the mass pre production of doses, so by March it’s entirely feasible that the vaccine is available to college students and student athletes. 

The news tonight indicates, As I Interpret it, suggest April will be the month when we go from high priority recipients to low, with every one who wants by the end of July. I suppose ath, 5th 6th flavor of vaccine could speed up the process

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I'm 80% confident that the NCAA tournament will occur. I think each team is doing everything they possibly can to minimize exposure to the virus and in the event of a case being found, is taking all the right steps to minimize its effect on other individuals. Because of that, I can see 34 participants per weight class come late March.

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20 minutes ago, RealAmericanHero said:

I'm 80% confident that the NCAA tournament will occur. I think each team is doing everything they possibly can to minimize exposure to the virus and in the event of a case being found, is taking all the right steps to minimize its effect on other individuals. Because of that, I can see 34 participants per weight class come late March.

Yeah I think I'd be somewhere in the 70-80% range now too

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It will come down to whether or not any of the virus variants take hold here. Right now the prevalence of the UK variant is low but growing and the Brazil and South Africa variants have now been detected. These variants are reputed to be much more transmissible but not more deadly (though recently the UK cast some doubt on that). 

The good news today is cases are going down. The bad news is that if the UK and other variants are here and spread like they did in other countries the case rate reductions may slow down or possibly reverse. There are two big unknowns:

1. Will the US have the same experience as the UK and other countries with the new variant. The experience they had was rapid increases in new cases and the new variant becoming the dominant strain. 

2. If the new variants “take over” what will federal, state and local governments do about it and when will they do it. 
 

I think even if the new strains rapidly progress it will take till mid March for them to be dominant. In the meantime, if the pace of vaccinations coil up due to two new vaccines coming to market and increase production, then this should help. Also, no one knows for sure how rapidly the UK variance is spreading in the US because we don’t sequence very many of the samples we get when someone tests positive.

A grim take on what things might look like can be found in Denmark where they are sequencing every sample. Right now case rates are dropping there too but what they are finding is that cases of the new variant are rapidly increasing, but since they currently  represent a small fraction of all cases, the overall effect swamped by the reducing number of cases of “old school Corona” (Corona classic?). But the UK variant is growing so rapidly that they predict this whole situation will reverse by mid February.

Meanwhile in the US the CDC forecasts the UK variant will take till March to become dominant but their models are necessarily going to have bigger variance simply because they have less hard data to go one. And our vaccination is going to slowly now though we can hope that things may speed up it would be wise to take a “believe it when we see it” stance.

 

 

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4 hours ago, BigTimeFan said:

It will come down to whether or not any of the virus variants take hold here. Right now the prevalence of the UK variant is low but growing and the Brazil and South Africa variants have now been detected. These variants are reputed to be much more transmissible but not more deadly (though recently the UK cast some doubt on that). 

The good news today is cases are going down. The bad news is that if the UK and other variants are here and spread like they did in other countries the case rate reductions may slow down or possibly reverse. There are two big unknowns:

1. Will the US have the same experience as the UK and other countries with the new variant. The experience they had was rapid increases in new cases and the new variant becoming the dominant strain. 

2. If the new variants “take over” what will federal, state and local governments do about it and when will they do it. 
 

I think even if the new strains rapidly progress it will take till mid March for them to be dominant. In the meantime, if the pace of vaccinations coil up due to two new vaccines coming to market and increase production, then this should help. Also, no one knows for sure how rapidly the UK variance is spreading in the US because we don’t sequence very many of the samples we get when someone tests positive.

A grim take on what things might look like can be found in Denmark where they are sequencing every sample. Right now case rates are dropping there too but what they are finding is that cases of the new variant are rapidly increasing, but since they currently  represent a small fraction of all cases, the overall effect swamped by the reducing number of cases of “old school Corona” (Corona classic?). But the UK variant is growing so rapidly that they predict this whole situation will reverse by mid February.

Meanwhile in the US the CDC forecasts the UK variant will take till March to become dominant but their models are necessarily going to have bigger variance simply because they have less hard data to go one. And our vaccination is going to slowly now though we can hope that things may speed up it would be wise to take a “believe it when we see it” stance.

 

 

By March, a significant portion of the country will be vaccinated or previously infected. Numbers are now dropping, and this time they are dropping for good. The virus will still be here in March, but the situation will be much better than it is today.  I think there will be an NCAA tournament, although I would still like to see it delayed. 

Edited by Billyhoyle

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NYtimes ran an article today saying the CDC is urging a return to schools. The quote below from the article isn’t a good look for wrestling however.  Hard to comprehend how schools are closed and when they are open masks are required yet we are having wrestling. I love the sport, but not sure it’s worth it this year. 
 

“The C.D.C. also published two related studies on Tuesday. One was an investigation of a high school wrestling tournament in Florida in December that became a super-spreader event, leading to at least 79 infections and one death.

The tournament brought together 10 schools and 130 athletes and coaches, and 30 percent of participants were infected with the coronavirus. Thirty-eight individuals went on to transmit the virus to at least 41 others, including family members. (The full number is not yet known, because fewer than half the participants were tested.)”

Edited by AnklePicker

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5 hours ago, Mphillips said:

70%-80%??? Wow that's pretty damn confidant. 

That’s only a B or C at best.

I don’t know the exact stats, but I would think less than 50% of duals have been postponed, so I’m pretty comfortable saying 70-80% for NCAA’s.  And as mentioned hopefully we’ve passed the peak which should help (along with the vaccine)

Edited by 1032004

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1 hour ago, Billyhoyle said:

By March, a significant portion of the country will be vaccinated or previously infected. Numbers are now dropping, and this time they are dropping for good. The virus will still be here in March, but the situation will be much better than it is today.  I think there will be an NCAA tournament, although I would still like to see it delayed. 

I think there will be too. Let’s hope your right about everything else. Cases are dropping now but there is that new variant. 

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