You think our chances of qualifying 65kg FS

[Lurker 1,503]

Are above or below 50%?  I personally feel below, in fact way below.  I'd be surprised if we qualify no matter who wins the weight.

[AHamilton 672]

39 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Are above or below 50%?  I personally feel below, in fact way below.  I'd be surprised if we qualify no matter who wins the weight.

100% agree.  Odds definitely stacked against us. It would, however, be interesting to see what other nations have not qualified.  Will this last chance tourney be a wringer or relatively soft.  Argentina has already qualified, so we do not have to worry about that hammer.

[Lurker 1,503]

 

13 minutes ago, AHamilton said:

100% agree.  Odds definitely stacked against us. It would, however, be interesting to see what other nations have not qualified.  Will this last chance tourney be a wringer or relatively soft.  Argentina has already qualified, so we do not have to worry about that hammer.

Kinch, Aliyev, and the Turk have all yet to qualify....then factor in the tournament is in Europe, where we are not going to catch an breaks, to put it lightly.

[AHamilton 672]

10 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Kinch, Aliyev, and the Turk have all yet to qualify....then factor in the tournament is in Europe, where we are not going to catch an breaks, to put it lightly.

That's a real problem.  

[whaletail 204]

Just now, AHamilton said:

That's a real problem.  

Aliyev hasn't qualified?

And only a single spot to fill?

If so, yeah, it's going to be an uphill battle.

[spladle08 753]

Yucky. Yeah there are a couple of hammers that haven't qualified. But to be the best you gotta hope for a positive PED test or whatever that saying is.

[spladle08 753]

Just to be on the same page

[bnwtwg 622]

Last chance will be a meat grinder and odds are ~30% the US comes out with a spot. I assume whoever wins OTT will be the rep sent over.

[wrestlingphish 702]

Wow. We blew it at Pan Am's big time. 

[OBXWrestler 98]

1 hour ago, wrestlingphish said:

Wow. We blew it at Pan Am's big time. 

200%

[lu1979 393]

4 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

Kinch, Aliyev, and the Turk have all yet to qualify....then factor in the tournament is in Europe, where we are not going to catch an breaks, to put it lightly.

That is true right now but things may be different by the time our guy tries to qualify in the last chance qualifier.  The European and Asian qualifiers will take 4 more good countries out of the mix prior to the last chance World qualifier.  It will still be tough but I like our chances of making the finals of the World qualifier and getting a guy through.  I'll guess 70% chance.

[TripNSweep 509]

Argentina wanted it more.

[spladle08 753]

That is true right now but things may be different by the time our guy tries to qualify in the last chance qualifier.  The European and Asian qualifiers will take 4 more good countries out of the mix prior to the last chance World qualifier.  It will still be tough but I like our chances of making the finals of the World qualifier and getting a guy through.  I'll guess 70% chance.

Just looking at the # of guys in the euros that haven't qualified I think there is a good chance we have at least 2 guys that are better than us on most days, in the bracket. I haven't looked at the Asian qualifier... and who is still out...I think 70 is ambitious, 40 feels reasonable, we aren't head and shoulders over most of the world and I think we will need to win one we shouldn't win consistently over.... a Kilicsallayan or Skriaban or something. It's not impossible, I'd just say we don't make the finals more than we do   

 

 

 

[Lurker 1,503]

1 hour ago, lu1979 said:

That is true right now but things may be different by the time our guy tries to qualify in the last chance qualifier.  The European and Asian qualifiers will take 4 more good countries out of the mix prior to the last chance World qualifier.  It will still be tough but I like our chances of making the finals of the World qualifier and getting a guy through.  I'll guess 70% chance.

Agreed. But those are just three guys off the top of my head in possibly the deepest talent pool weight in the world. I hope your right and my 25-30% thinking is wrong. 

Edited December 4, 2020 by Lurker

[AHamilton 672]

2 hours ago, TripNSweep said:

Argentina wanted it more.

He had more fun too.

[Crash 169]

Zain completely blew it at Pan Ams.

Not surprising.


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[hammerlockthree 2,084]

I have PTSD from that match.....

[lu1979 393]

5 hours ago, spladle08 said:

Just looking at the # of guys in the euros that haven't qualified I think there is a good chance we have at least 2 guys that are better than us on most days, in the bracket. I haven't looked at the Asian qualifier... and who is still out...I think 70 is ambitious, 40 feels reasonable, we aren't head and shoulders over most of the world and I think we will need to win one we shouldn't win consistently over.... a Kilicsallayan or Skriaban or something. It's not impossible, I'd just say we don't make the finals more than we do   

 

 

 

You are right that Europe has only qualified 2 countries (Rus & Hung) and 2 more will be out of the pool after the Euro Qualifiers.  Still just some of the strong teams left include powerhouses like Georgia, Azerbaijanian, Turkey, Armenia, Belarus, Ukraine, and a slew of other countries that regularly produce tough wrestlers.  Asia won't be quite as bad as they have qualified four tough countries already (Japan, Mongolia, India, & Kazakhstan) They will also send 2 more after the Asian Qualifiers.  The stronger countries left in Asia include Iran, both Koreas, China, and the remaining 4 Stans.  I am still optimistic about the chances of one of our top 3 guys but I do agree that this tournament will be a hell of a lot tougher and deeper than the Pan Ams were.  

[cjc007 703]

Wow. We blew it at Pan Am's big time. 

No we didn't blow it, Retherford blew it.

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[nhs67 1,227]

3 hours ago, cjc007 said:

No we didn't blow it, Retherford blew it.

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Technically the ref blew it when he blew his whistle.

[wrestlingnerd 2,778]

On 12/3/2020 at 8:40 PM, AHamilton said:

He had more fun too.

[cjc007 703]

Technically the ref blew it when he blew his whistle.

The refs blew it at Rutgers imo. What a fiasco.

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[nom 984]

Watching the RTC Cup .... I’d feel better about our chances if we had one guy (maybe 2) that was clearly a notch above domestic competition.  I don’t see that though.  Zain, Oliver, Yianni .. name more ... all very close. It seems like when we have someone that is much better, we do much better on world stage.  Not always ... but ...

Burroughs, Dake, Taylor, Cox, Snyder and for a while Gwiz ... are all examples.  
 

Again, there are exceptions.  But this is something I noticed.

[GoNotQuietly 1,010]

1) Gawd I love this weight-class!  Consistently ludicrous competition level internationally.  I could watch even just last year Worlds matches all day for a week and not get bored.

2) I will go to my deathbed arguing that Metcalf got a stupid amount of hate here for not placing at this weight when Olympic medalists pretty routinely get eliminated first round of Worlds.

3)There seems to me like only a chance in the context of "so you're saying there is a chance..." of the U.S. qualifying this weight at this point.

[JHRoseWrestling 183]

It is mind boggling that the last chance will qualify top two via a randomly paired bracket without a full back-draw to include a true second bout.

I understand that this is by design to engineer diverse representation at the Olympics, but this game of chance is just a bridge too far with regard to "fair play".

Fortunately these circumstances will possibly benefit the USA at 65 kg.  In a bracket designed to accurately place the athletes, I imagine the USA would be worse than a coin-flip to finish top two.  As it stands a fortunate draw could provide a cake walk to the finals and Olympic qualification.  Of course the reality also exists where a poor draw could have us out of the running before lunch.

Edited December 7, 2020 by JHRoseWrestling
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