If the Olympic Trials were held today, there's a good chance...

[NJDan 573]

If the Olympic Trials were held today, there's a good chance that three current collegians would make the team: Spencer Lee, Gabe Steveson and Yianni D.

First of all, is this correct. And if it is correct (or close to correct) is it unusual?

Is it good or bad?

[ionel 1,245]

18 minutes ago, NJDan said:

If the Olympic Trials were held today, there's a good chance that three current collegians would make the team: Spencer Lee, Gabe Steveson and Yianni D.

First of all, is this correct. And if it is correct (or close to correct) is it unusual?

Is it good or bad?

You failed to mention that Dake would not make it nor JB, prob not Taylor.  So maybe there's a reason its not held today?  

[NJDan 573]

32 minutes ago, ionel said:

You failed to mention that Dake would not make it nor JB, prob not Taylor.  So maybe there's a reason its not held today?  

Why wouldn't those guys make it?

 

[ionel 1,245]

22 minutes ago, NJDan said:

Why wouldn't those guys make it?

 

Dake is obviously out sick, covid or other.  JB obviously can't make weight today.  And Taylor's mom forgot to wake him up this morning.  

Edited December 5, 2020 by ionel

[NJDan 573]

I don't know if either is true, let alone obvious. "Today" is an expression in this context. Dake may have been exposed, as opposed to testing positive-- or neither. Is it known that JB can't make weight if given enough time?

[1032004 812]

I think Lee and Gable would probably the favorites at this point.  I’m not sure Yianni would be.

[NJDan 573]

1 minute ago, 1032004 said:

I think Lee and Gable would probably the favorites at this point.  I’m not sure Yianni would be.

Who would you put ahead of Yianni as the favorite.

BTW, I could not find the senior rankings. The ones on Themat.com are from 2018.

 

[nhs67 901]

In the context that all wrestlers are healthy and can make weight today, then yes.  It is in the realm of possible that all three make the team.  I think 125 plays out with the young guns on bottom, and I don't see how Steveson doesn't come out on top there. 

Lee is Lee and likely doesn't see any real competition until he sees Gilman(Gilman is #1 seed btw).  Assuming Fix is in as well, and you have a collegian meeting Gillman in the finals between the two of them at 57.  Not sure how they seed 57 right now (off the top of my head). 

Johnny D seems to have as high of a ceiling as Lee, but a very low ceiling too.  his scrambling keeps him in and can absolutely blow matches open, but his scrambling can also keep other wrestlers in matches too (see Eirmann, McKenna).

I believe your statement is fair, although I give Lee and Steveson less than 50% chance of winning, and Johnny D even less.

[nhs67 901]

Just now, NJDan said:

Who would you put ahead of Yianni as the favorite.

BTW, I could not find the senior rankings. The ones on Themat.com are from 2018.

 

I think even when considering seeding McKenna is ahead of Johnny D at this point.

[1032004 812]

7 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I think even when considering seeding McKenna is ahead of Johnny D at this point.

I was going to say Oliver actually.  Some may even say Zain should be favored over him due to being the returning rep (note these are not predictions)

Edited December 5, 2020 by 1032004

[nhs67 901]

1 minute ago, 1032004 said:

I was going to say Oliver actually.  Some may even say Zain should be favored over him due to being the returning rep (note these are not predictions)

Zain has #1 Seed Criteria now.  No losses to domestic aside for Johnny D, who has lost to McKenna who has lost to Oliver.

I think it goes Zain-Oliver-McKenna-Johnny D-Lee right now.

[NJDan 573]

3 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Zain has #1 Seed Criteria now.  No losses to domestic aside for Johnny D, who has lost to McKenna who has lost to Oliver.

I think it goes Zain-Oliver-McKenna-Johnny D-Lee right now.

Fair point. Yianni is not the favorite. I would say that Zain is. But it's close. 

[lu1979 307]

10 hours ago, NJDan said:

If the Olympic Trials were held today, there's a good chance that three current collegians would make the team: Spencer Lee, Gabe Steveson and Yianni D.

First of all, is this correct. And if it is correct (or close to correct) is it unusual?

Is it good or bad?

For 57 kg you have a top 3 favored to make the team and 2 of the 3 are collegians.  After the way Vito wrestles this weekend we might have a top 4 with 3 of 4 in college.  

At 125 kg Gable is the favorite right now but Parris is awfully close and after beating Gwiz he has to be a contender too.  It is hard to know where Kerk fits in as he hasn't hit any of the top guys.  

Yianni is my favorite at 65 kg but like 57 we have 3 guys who are very even at to top of that weight.

I think it is a bit unusual when compared to what we have seen over the last 20 years.  I do remember when the ill fated 1980 team started out the 1st 4 weights (of 10) with college guys. 

I think it is great that the US team is developing guys that can compete on the highest level in FS at a young age. I don't really see a downside to that.

[Crotalus 392]

I don't think it's a bad thing, at all. We've had quite a bit of success recently with college guys (Snyder, Cox). And all three of those guys have worked class ability. The problem is, no matter who wins the spot at those weights, we will need a good draw to medal right now. Lee and Gable could change that in the future. If Lee keeps progressing he could be dominant on the world level and Gable is coming up at the right time with Akgul and Petriashvili getting long in the tooth. Gable's toughest competition in the next 5 years or so may be domestic. I'm a fan of Yianni, and I think he has great freestyle instincts, but I don't ever see us having consistent success at 65. In my opinion it is the deepest and toughest weight in the world and I fear our success there will always be draw dependent.

Johnny D seems to have as high of a ceiling as Lee, but a very low ceiling too.

You mean low floor. No matter who we send at 65, 1 and done is always a realistic outcome. The fact we can't even win Pan Ams at this weight shows we should prepare for, or maybe even expect disappointment.

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[bnwtwg 428]

3 minutes ago, Crotalus said:

You mean low floor. No matter who we send at 65, 1 and done is always a realistic outcome.

 

It depends on who wins OTT. Don’t forget Dogu results when a certain 65 ladder rep displayed domestic vs. international results. It’s quite a quandary.

[Plasmodium 1,576]

I figured Steveson would catch Gwiz.  He should be considered the favorite at this point.. Mason Parris is looking good though, so throw his hat in this ring as well. He looks much improved and I think he has a good shot at Tokyo.

[lu1979 307]

3 hours ago, Crotalus said:

I don't think it's a bad thing, at all. We've had quite a bit of success recently with college guys (Snyder, Cox). And all three of those guys have worked class ability. The problem is, no matter who wins the spot at those weights, we will need a good draw to medal right now. Lee and Gable could change that in the future. If Lee keeps progressing he could be dominant on the world level and Gable is coming up at the right time with Akgul and Petriashvili getting long in the tooth. Gable's toughest competition in the next 5 years or so may be domestic. I'm a fan of Yianni, and I think he has great freestyle instincts, but I don't ever see us having consistent success at 65. In my opinion it is the deepest and toughest weight in the world and I fear our success there will always be draw dependent.
 

 

You mean low floor. No matter who we send at 65, 1 and done is always a realistic outcome. The fact we can't even win Pan Ams at this weight shows we should prepare for, or maybe even expect disappointment.

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Like you I have great hopes for Gable on the world stage and I think both Parris and Kerk also have great potential.  I do have to correct you about Petriashvili getting "long in the tooth" - the guy is only 26 years old and heavyweights tend to compete much longer than the lighter guys.  Big Bruce was 36 when he won his last Bronze at the 96 Olympics and 35 when he won his last World Gold in Atlanta.   T Akgul is only 30 and if he stays healthy could be around for a while at close to the top of his game.  Still with that being said I do think our excellant crop of young heavies can challenge those guys for World/Olympic medals starting this year.

[Crotalus 392]

1 hour ago, lu1979 said:

Like you I have great hopes for Gable on the world stage and I think both Parris and Kerk also have great potential.  I do have to correct you about Petriashvili getting "long in the tooth" - the guy is only 26 years old and heavyweights tend to compete much longer than the lighter guys.  Big Bruce was 36 when he won his last Bronze at the 96 Olympics and 35 when he won his last World Gold in Atlanta.   T Akgul is only 30 and if he stays healthy could be around for a while at close to the top of his game.  Still with that being said I do think our excellant crop of young heavies can challenge those guys for World/Olympic medals starting this year.

Ah, good points. Seems like Petriashvili has been around so long that I thought he was older. Bruce was an abnormality regarding his longevity, but these guys are good enough to keep going. I do feel like the Akgul of the last couple of years dropped off from his peak of around 2015/2016 when he was so dominant. He keeps himself in great shape so should be competitive for years, but if his athleticism slips, I could see our guys giving him a lot of trouble. They are not there yet, though, and need to keep developing.

[lu1979 307]

33 minutes ago, Crotalus said:

Ah, good points. Seems like Petriashvili has been around so long that I thought he was older. Bruce was an abnormality regarding his longevity, but these guys are good enough to keep going. I do feel like the Akgul of the last couple of years dropped off from his peak of around 2015/2016 when he was so dominant. He keeps himself in great shape so should be competitive for years, but if his athleticism slips, I could see our guys giving him a lot of trouble. They are not there yet, though, and need to keep developing.

One thing on Akgul he had a major shoulder injury this past January that required surgery - that is tough at any age but after 30 it gets harder - I do hope he recovers well as he is a great wrestler.