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NJDan

From Junior World to Senior World

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The three collegians who have a good chance to make our Olympic team-- Spencer, Yianni and Gable-- are all multiple-time junior and cadet world champions. Raises the quesion: How right readily to junior world titles translate to senior world or Olympic titles?

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44 minutes ago, LJB said:

just because...

yianni is not a junior world champ...

lee's junior world championships came at a child's weight that does not even exist anymore and was not super indicative of future results historically...

 

 

Oh, right you are about Yianni. He does have two cadet titles. Did he lose domestically as a junior. He also seems to be undefeated in international competition, even at the senior level.

 

 

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Just now, NJDan said:

Oh, right you are about Yianni. He does have two cadet titles. Did he lose domestically as a junior. He also seems to be undefeated in international competition, even at the senior level.

eirman beat him at trials several years ago and then he was injured the next two junior years...

and yes, he has some senior results...

and yes, he has as good of chance as any to medal at 65kg in the us...

but, his continued reliance on scrambling to score points makes me nervous at the highest levels... and he is a scrambling wizard, but...

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from 2019 WC's

55 Zavur Uguev   was Cadet WC 2011 and 2012

61  Lomtadze, Lasha  Nothing

65  Rashidov, Gadshimurad  was Junior bronze in 2014 and 2015

70 Baev, David  World champ at Cadet and Junior

74  Sidakov, Zaurbek  3rd at Juniors in 2015

79  Dake   14 in GR WCs in 2008

86  Yazdani Charati, Hassan  2014 Jr WC

92  Cox   No Jr competition

97  Sadulaev, Abdulrashid    Cadet WC 2012 and 2013  No Jr competition

120  Petriashvili, Geno    2012 3rd, 2013 1st as jr.

So it does have some correlation.  Not a whole lot but there seems to be a connection to doing well in Jrs indicating some success in Srs.

mspart

 

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1 hour ago, NJDan said:

Oh, right you are about Yianni. He does have two cadet titles. Did he lose domestically as a junior. He also seems to be undefeated in international competition, even at the senior level.

 

 

I don't believe he competed as a Junior due to injuries.

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3 hours ago, nhs67 said:

I don't believe he competed as a Junior due to injuries.

He was coming back from a long layoff due to injury and wasn’t 100%. He lost 6-4 to a relatively unknown Deakin in the semis, who went on to win a junior world silver out of nowhere 

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8 hours ago, Housebuye said:

He was coming back from a long layoff due to injury and wasn’t 100%. He lost 6-4 to a relatively unknown Deakin in the semis, who went on to win a junior world silver out of nowhere 

Ah yeah!  I believe he beat my boy Storr in the finals?  I remember watchung the match and thinking 'No fckn way these two are near the same weight.' and checked wrestlestat.  Sure as hell he had a quiet, solid redshirt seasom at 149.

Then his RS-FR season he damn near dwarfed Sorenson, which baffled me.  Just a massive dude.  I still think he needs to go 165 this season.

There is zero reason for him or Hidlay or Carr not to if they intend to go 74 kilo for trials, aside for an easier path to trials.

Edited by nhs67

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This whole thing is weird. It could be Fargo titles to US Open titles it just doesn't matter. 
There is no great indicator. 
Yes, you're good if you win a Junior World title in your 2-3 year eligibility window. 
No that doesn't mean anything in regards to the larger eligibility window that is, "Seniors" people progress, regress, there could be a roadblock for you domestically, that prevents you from ever making the team, so on and so forth. 
Junior Worlds is a great indicator as to where you are for that age range, but in no way is a reflection of future successes.
Yes a Junior World champion should be talked about as a threat to make the team domestically. 
No It means nothing in terms of Senior World Medals 

Edited by spladle08

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9 minutes ago, spladle08 said:

ie Mehki Lewis 

ie Bubba Jenkins
ie  Verkleereen
ie Kamal Bey
ie most of em. 
Yes some lower level killers become senior level killers..... 
No, not many lower level killers will become senior level killers. 

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2 hours ago, LJB said:

"18" was definitely a russian age...

Saduleev is undoubtedly an all-time great at the senior level, despite the fact that he may have been a bit "seasoned" when he won cadets.  I just feel as if someone had some pretty good info (perhaps it was Mr. Holt?) that he was was a bit too old to be a cadet at the time.

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1 minute ago, AHamilton said:

Saduleev is undoubtedly an all-time great at the senior level, despite the fact that he may have been a bit "seasoned" when he won cadets.  I just feel as if someone had some pretty good info (perhaps it was Mr. Holt?) that he was was a bit too old to be a cadet at the time.

there was pic posted a couple of years ago with him and his birth certificate that showed his age at being 3 years older than previously registered as a cadet...

 

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23 hours ago, spladle08 said:

This whole thing is weird. It could be Fargo titles to US Open titles it just doesn't matter. 
There is no great indicator. 
Yes, you're good if you win a Junior World title in your 2-3 year eligibility window. 
No that doesn't mean anything in regards to the larger eligibility window that is, "Seniors" people progress, regress, there could be a roadblock for you domestically, that prevents you from ever making the team, so on and so forth. 
Junior Worlds is a great indicator as to where you are for that age range, but in no way is a reflection of future successes.
Yes a Junior World champion should be talked about as a threat to make the team domestically. 
No It means nothing in terms of Senior World Medals 

You would need some sophisticated statistical analysis to make a real conclusion, but to say that junior success means "nothing" is nonsense. There are certainly wrestlers who win juniors who have limited success as seniors. But many others have had great success. If all you know about a guy is that he won juniors, it would be a good bet that he would do well as a senior, which is not to say that he would be a world champ or medalist. If all you know about another guy is that he failed to place nationally as s junior, you would make a different prediction. Junior success is a highly relevant data point even if it is not dispositive.

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9 minutes ago, NJDan said:

You would need some sophisticated statistical analysis to make a real conclusion, but to say that junior success means "nothing" is nonsense. There are certainly wrestlers who win juniors who have limited success as seniors. But many others have had great success. If all you know about a guy is that he won juniors, it would be a good bet that he would do well as a senior, which is not to say that he would be a world champ or medalist. If all you know about another guy is that he failed to place nationally as s junior, you would make a different prediction. Junior success is a highly relevant data point even if it is not dispositive.

Yeah again, you know at 18 years old the guy was on top of the world. 
Again Yes a Junior world champion should always be considered a threat to do things at the senior level. 
Again NO a there is no transitive property. Somebody lined it out above right. 
yeah @mspart laid it out above. 50% of the World Champs from last year had previous Cadet/JR titles.... David Taylor wrestles it drops to 40%.... 
Great.... Some of the kids were on top of the world at 18 and now are on top of the world as adults, but that's 5 wrestlers, out of 200 with Cadet/Junior titles  (I just assumed 10 weights Cadets/Juniors so 20 titles per year up for grabs.....10 years.. 200 wrestlers worth of titles, if they only have 9 weights or something it's not a "gotcha" moment, I just don't feel like googling) that won and 5 who had no titles. I guess the correlation would be if you have a Cadet/JR world title you could or could not be successful and if you don't have a cadet/JR world title, you could or could not be successful. I hadn't seen that way until just now... my bad.  

 

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2 minutes ago, spladle08 said:

love you @NJDan but it's like 2 State Championships having some predictive property towards NCAA Champion. 
Yes, Most NCAA Champions will have won 2 
But in no way does 2 State titles translate to NCAA success 

That's not a very good analogy.  A junior world champ is competing against the best in the world in their age group, just as a senior world champ is. A HS state champ is competing against the best in one of fifty states (and in most cases not even the whole state, but the best in that particular subdivision of their state), then moving up to competition against the entire country.  

I don't think anyone is saying a junior world gold automatically guarantees senior world/olympic gold.  But to deny a junior world gold is a very good indicator of senior level potential seems pretty silly.  

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5 hours ago, spladle08 said:

love you @NJDan but it's like 2 State Championships having some predictive property towards NCAA Champion. 
Yes, Most NCAA Champions will have won 2 
But in no way does 2 State titles translate to NCAA success 

State championships are not comparable for the simple reason that there are 50 states. A junior folkstyle national championship would be comparable-- if there is one that draws all the best kids.

 

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On another level, it would seem to be the case that at any given time there are up to 12 former junior champs alive and between age 20 and 32. Yet at the same time there can be just one senior champ. Thus it would be very unlikely for any one former junior champ to be a senior champ at any given time. But it would be pretty likely for any given senior champ to be a former junior champ. 

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I'm going over the last quad and putting together an article.

the research is almost done, but i wanna put some additional color to it.

but my initial reaction to this thread is that y'all's threshold for relevance seems pretty high.

it's looking to me like somewhere around 55-65% of SR medalists medaled at JR's. I think that's incredibly high (and relevant).

what would you consider high? 

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