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NJDan

From Junior World to Senior World

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37 minutes ago, Husker_Du said:

I'm going over the last quad and putting together an article.

the research is almost done, but i wanna put some additional color to it.

but my initial reaction to this thread is that y'all's threshold for relevance seems pretty high.

it's looking to me like somewhere around 55-65% of SR medalists medaled at JR's. I think that's incredibly high (and relevant).

what would you consider high? 

Of course, you would have to consider how many of the senior medalists competed at junior worlds (or tried to). JB, Dake and Taylor, to name a few, did not even compete, I believe.

 

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JB and Taylor made JR Teams. Dake made a JR Team in GR. Numbers get a little down with no Cadet Worlds from 2000 to 2011 though.

63% of Medalists from 2016-2019 Worlds had made a CD/JR World Team.

43% of Medalists from 2016-2019 Worlds had wrestled for a medal (Top 5) at CD or JR Worlds (also to include YOG).

Edited by Husker_Du

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On 12/12/2020 at 8:39 AM, Husker_Du said:

JB and Taylor made JR Teams. Dake made a JR Team in GR. Numbers get a little down with no Cadet Worlds from 2000 to 2011 though.

63% of Medalists from 2016-2019 Worlds had made a CD/JR World Team.

43% of Medalists from 2016-2019 Worlds had wrestled for a medal (Top 5) at CD or JR Worlds (also to include YOG).

I like it, so if you made the medal round at the age-group events, you're less than 50% to have senior success... :) Sorry I've been offline a bit, but glad  somebody looked up the numbers. 
Medaling in Cadets or Juniors is a great achievement, I was just saying it was unlikely to predict future successes. 
Here's hoping we qualify and medal at every Olympic weight! 
#Cheers! 

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17 minutes ago, spladle08 said:

I like it, so if you made the medal round at the age-group events, you're less than 50% to have senior success... :) Sorry I've been offline a bit, but glad  somebody looked up the numbers. 
Medaling in Cadets or Juniors is a great achievement, I was just saying it was unlikely to predict future successes. 
Here's hoping we qualify and medal at every Olympic weight! 
#Cheers! 

I think that these stats say something different. There maybe ten times as many former junior medalists still in their athletic primes (say ages 19-32) as there are senior medalists in any given year so of course most junior medalist don't win a senior medal.  But the numbers do indicate that most of the Americans who win senior medals emerge from the ranks of junior medalists, which I guess is not surprising.

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1 minute ago, NJDan said:

I think that these stats say something different. There maybe ten times as many former junior medalists still in their athletic primes (say ages 19-32) as there are senior medalists in any given year so of course most junior medalist don't win a senior medal.  But the numbers do indicate that most of the Americans who win senior medals emerge from the ranks of junior medalists, which I guess is not surprising.

yeah for sure, but I think that's strongly based in the fact that not all of our athletes freestyle/greco.
So the there is a smaller pool of athletes pursuing "Next level" dreams.... 
But yeah, I dunno. Seems iffy, but if you can correlate, correlate away my friend. 
#Cheers. I hope to see some high level competitions soon! 
 

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not really sure what you are saying, spladle.

i think the numbers are rather staggering. 46% of those who wrestled for a SR World medal during the last quad also wrestled for medal at the CD/JR level.

that's an incredible indicator. 

compare that to the success rates of, say, NFL 1st Round Draft Picks who go on to make All Pro. 

full article here if interested. (h/t to the board for prompting it) https://rokfin.com/article/2522/World-JuniortoSenior-Correlation

Edited by Husker_Du

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On 12/14/2020 at 10:08 AM, Husker_Du said:

not really sure what you are saying, spladle.

i think the numbers are rather staggering. 46% of those who wrestled for a SR World medal during the last quad also wrestled for medal at the CD/JR level.

that's an incredible indicator. 

compare that to the success rates of, say, NFL 1st Round Draft Picks who go on to make All Pro. 

full article here if interested. (h/t to the board for prompting it) https://rokfin.com/article/2522/World-JuniortoSenior-Correlation

Oh interesting, I'll read it. 
But before.
As I said initially when we were talking JR/Cadet World Champs.... it doesn't guarantee or even "more often than not", predict a senior world medal..... 
That said. OF COURSE when you're a Cadet/Junior World Medalist, you're likely at the top of your country's pecking order, therefore when you reach your prime-age you have a decent chance of being your country's rep and hopefully competing for medals. 
In the grand scheme though, whether you're a youth world medalist who stayed on top or somebody that's worked their way into top dawg consideration, how you preformed at 17 years old, doesn't have a lot of bearing on the huge division that is "Seniors". I would like to see how many world medalists competed at all on their age level teams. 
I bet that would more support the significance of Age-Level events. The top dawgs for a lot of countries, probably stay the top dawgs, regardless of youth medal results....   
The initial post was:
"The three collegians who have a good chance to make our Olympic team-- Spencer, Yianni and Gable-- are all multiple-time junior and cadet world champions. Raises the quesion: How right readily to junior world titles translate to senior world or Olympic titles?"
To which I basically replied, "There are a lot of JR World Champs (And placers) competing for (The bigger division) Senior Level men's gold... Winning a JR world title, doesn't predict a thing, even though these people should certainly be considered in the mix to rep their respective countries" 
 

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