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southend

Boilermakers

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PU enters this week with a chance to solidify their claim for upper level big ten ranking. The first match Friday they entertain the fighting illini . Then going to Whisky for a Sunday match. This year Illinois jumps out as a solid contender for second place in the conference.  So Purdue can make a statement with a good showing Friday. Sunday’s match could be a dog fight, Badgers seem on the downward curve but can still hold their own in the  conference.  Purdue seems to be healthy and steadily climbing in the ranks of the Big Ten. People forgot where the Boilermaker program was 5 years ago. 

Edited by southend

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1 hour ago, RoosterAttack said:

Illinois 2nd place or 2nd tier?! Ik there good this year but 2nd place seems like a leap with Mich, Neb, and Psu all solid trophy contenders this year nationally.

Yeah the guy is off his marbles.  Held a whole conversation with himself in another thread.  Impressive, really.

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4 hours ago, RoosterAttack said:

Illinois 2nd place or 2nd tier?! Ik there good this year but 2nd place seems like a leap with Mich, Neb, and Psu all solid trophy contenders this year nationally.

You may be right, they’re up there this year. I’m not not debating Illinois but looking more at the boilermakers move in talent and conference standing from 5 years ago. They continue to climb. This will be a good test for them this weekend. 

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I've got Iowa, Michigan, Penn State, and at least Nebraska comfortably favored against Illinois in a dual format.

Minnesota is favored three matches to one with six (6!) toss-ups.

Ohio State, Michigan State, and Rutgers would all have competitive duals with them that would come down to the swing matches, as well.  Saying they're #2 is pure bias.

As far as Purdue?  With the team they put on the mat last weekend, I favor Illinois in 7 of 10 matches.  Purdue taking 125, 157, and 197, respectively.  Purdue has their proper starting lineup, they could win as many as six matches, however I'm only counting on who has shown thus far.  Really the same can be said for Northwestern, if they field their 'A' team.

For reference purposes, if you look to Wrestlestat(which is not a rankings system, but a ratings system), they have them going 5 wins, 8 losses if it were a round robin style formatting.  They're using optimal lineups, so no factor for covid, injuries, or otherwise.

I, personally, have Illinois as #6 behind Minnesota.  They did beat Ohio State.  I would take Ohio State 4 out of 5 times if they rematch, though.  There is no denying everything went wrong for them and everything went right for Illinois in that dual.  Fortunately for Illinois, they won't see eachother again, save for individual tournaments.  Illinois is much better suited for dual meets than tournaments, though.  They could conceivably finish in 12th place at B1Gs and still finish with a winning dual record.

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33 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I've got Iowa, Michigan, Penn State, and at least Nebraska comfortably favored against Illinois in a dual format.

Minnesota is favored three matches to one with six (6!) toss-ups.

Ohio State, Michigan State, and Rutgers would all have competitive duals with them that would come down to the swing matches, as well.  Saying they're #2 is pure bias.

As far as Purdue?  With the team they put on the mat last weekend, I favor Illinois in 7 of 10 matches.  Purdue taking 125, 157, and 197, respectively.  Purdue has their proper starting lineup, they could win as many as six matches, however I'm only counting on who has shown thus far.  Really the same can be said for Northwestern, if they field their 'A' team.

For reference purposes, if you look to Wrestlestat(which is not a rankings system, but a ratings system), they have them going 5 wins, 8 losses if it were a round robin style formatting.  They're using optimal lineups, so no factor for covid, injuries, or otherwise.

I, personally, have Illinois as #6 behind Minnesota.  They did beat Ohio State.  I would take Ohio State 4 out of 5 times if they rematch, though.  There is no denying everything went wrong for them and everything went right for Illinois in that dual.  Fortunately for Illinois, they won't see eachother again, save for individual tournaments.  Illinois is much better suited for dual meets than tournaments, though.  They could conceivably finish in 12th place at B1Gs and still finish with a winning dual record.

You can’t say everything went right for Illinois in that dual when Cardani lost to Heinselman who he has beaten before and possibly their best guy gave up 6 which is not going to happen in a rematch.  Could easily have been 21-9 Illini.

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1 minute ago, George_W_Lush said:

You can’t say everything went right for Illinois in that dual when Cardani lost to Heinselman who he has beaten before and possibly their best guy gave up 6 which is not going to happen in a rematch.  Could easily have been 21-9 Illini.

I would agree with that.But also in a rematch not sure 141 165 197 HWT go the same way if wrestled again either.The dual could be wrestled 10 times with each team winning 5 is my opinion.Theyre very evenly matched 

 

 

 

 

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This a a thread about Purdue so back to Purdue.Ersland and staff have done a great job he's made them respectable fast in the best conference in the country.Thats very hard to do not sure he gets as much credit as he should.It obvious the guys a great coach

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I looked up their wrestlestat profile (https://www.wrestlestat.com/team/64/purdue/profile). With respect to duals, those numbers show very marginal improvement or stuck in the same spot.  Some improvement in tournament placing, but their position there would be low enough their score is  dominated by one, at most two, wrestlers.  Looks like last year would have been a decent tournament for them.

Also, boilermakers are awesome.

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32 minutes ago, southend said:

The squad has improved enough that anyone outside of the top 2 teams ,in the league,better bring their A team in a match with the Boilers. 

If you said top 3, I wouldn't argue with you.  However, they would get steamrolled by Iowa, Michigan and PSU.  Nebby probably still puts it to them, but I could see Purdue being competitive with them.

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1 hour ago, southend said:

The squad has improved enough that anyone outside of the top 2 teams ,in the league,better bring their A team in a match with the Boilers. 

PSU is currently ranked 3rd. Are you suggesting that Purdon't has a chance to beat PSU? Even with Kerkvliet out and Nevills filling HWT, that's kind of a strange statement to make. 

Looking at Wrestlestat comparisons, the best options Purdon't has for a win are Devin Schroder and Kendall Coleman. And both of those are far from a sure thing. Full strength Berge is going to beat Coleman, and if Howard is going well he's right there with Shroder. If Beau Bartlett wrestles at 149, he's beating Trey Kruse. 

If Kerkvliet wrestles, and all of the other starters are in the lineup and healthy, you could be looking at Purdon't getting blown out. 

Similarly, if PSU and Michigan swap places, and Michigan is 3rd, do you really think Michigan is losing to Purdon't?

Edited by Le duke

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9 minutes ago, Le duke said:

PSU is currently ranked 3rd. Are you suggesting that Purdon't has a chance to beat PSU? Even with Kerkvliet out and Nevills filling HWT, that's kind of a strange statement to make. 

Looking at Wrestlestat comparisons, the best options Purdon't has for a win are Devin Schroder and Kendall Coleman. And both of those are far from a sure thing. Full strength Berge is going to beat Coleman, and if Howard is going well he's right there with Shroder. If Beau Bartlett wrestles at 149, he's beating Trey Kruse. 

If Kerkvliet wrestles, and all of the other starters are in the lineup and healthy, you could be looking at Purdon't getting blown out. 

Similarly, if PSU and Michigan swap places, and Michigan is 3rd, do you really think Michigan is losing to Purdon't?

Penn Stop and Michigone have no chance against Purdon't!

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Here is the breakdown for each top 3 team against Purdue:

Iowa over Purdue 43-0  Coleman is probably the only guy with any chance to win

https://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/34/iowa/64/purdue

Michigan over Purdue 30-9  It has Schroeder beating Ragusin, which I am not so sure of.  Mattin over Filius, which could flip. Coleman over Lewan, again not so sure of.   Finally, Penola winning at 197 over Davison, who may not even be their starter and still could win.  So, best case scenario would probably be losing 27-12 and they could just as easily lose by a shutout.

https://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/40/michigan/64/purdue

PSU over Purdue 27-11

Schroeder is the only best bet win for Purdue.  They have Kruse beating Bartlett, which isn't happening and Coleman over Berge, which depends on if Berge can truly be healthy.  Other than Schroeder they could easily get blanked the rest of the way.  

https://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/60/penn-state/64/purdue

Edited by MSU158

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1 hour ago, MSU158 said:

Here is the breakdown for each top 3 team against Purdue:

Iowa over Purdue 43-0  Coleman is probably the only guy with any chance to win

https://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/34/iowa/64/purdue

Michigan over Purdue 30-9  It has Schroeder beating Ragusin, which I am not so sure of.  Mattin over Filius, which could flip. Coleman over Lewan, again not so sure of.   Finally, Penola winning at 197 over Davison, who may not even be their starter and still could win.  So, best case scenario would probably be losing 27-12 and they could just as easily lose by a shutout.

https://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/40/michigan/64/purdue

PSU over Purdue 27-11

Schroeder is the only best bet win for Purdue.  They have Kruse beating Bartlett, which isn't happening and Coleman over Berge, which depends on if Berge can truly be healthy.  Other than Schroeder they could easily get blanked the rest of the way.  

It was a FS match, but Berge held Hidlay to a 5-0 loss a month ago. That's a pretty good result (Hidlay looks to be a solid favorite at 157), and I'd say bodes well for the next couple of years. He could be an AA for the next 3 years (counting this season), if his Medical RS from last year goes through. 

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12 minutes ago, Le duke said:

It was a FS match, but Berge held Hidlay to a 5-0 loss a month ago. That's a pretty good result (Hidlay looks to be a solid favorite at 157), and I'd say bodes well for the next couple of years. He could be an AA for the next 3 years (counting this season), if his Medical RS from last year goes through. 

Hard to glean much positive from a 5-0 match in freestyle.  It showed that he couldn't get a takedown in 6 minutes.  HIdlay is only the favorite at 157 if Deakin is at 165.

Now, I do say a healthy Berge is a solid, lower end AA candidate, but so is Coleman.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if those 2 were wresting in the R12 match to see who AA's.

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1 hour ago, MSU158 said:

Here is the breakdown for ...

Michigan over Purdue 30-9 

PSU over Purdue 27-11

 

 

11 minutes ago, PSUSMC said:

It quite often seems:

Purdue might, can, will!

In the end it's usually Purdon't

Probably comparing the wrong lineups, if comparing to Purdon't then ya gotta see how they match up against the Penn Stop lineup from last weekend and the Michigone lineup we expect to see in a couple weeks.  ;)

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1 hour ago, MSU158 said:

Hard to glean much positive from a 5-0 match in freestyle.  It showed that he couldn't get a takedown in 6 minutes.  HIdlay is only the favorite at 157 if Deakin is at 165.

Now, I do say a healthy Berge is a solid, lower end AA candidate, but so is Coleman.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if those 2 were wresting in the R12 match to see who AA's.

Well, it showed he had enough high level defense to survive a Hidlay onslaught for 6 minutes. Plenty of others would have been teched in the first period. Hidlay took 3rd at senior nationals at 74kg not too long ago, beating Wick 11-8. Wick teched Deakin, blah blah blah, transitive property, or not, blah blah. Point being, Hidlay and Deakin are top 2 at 157, and Berge held him to one takedown. 

In terms of offense, a lot of that is timing, and that only comes with live wrestling. Given that he was more or less not wrestling for a good while after his abbreviated season, if he stays healthy, his timing and offensive output will likely improve. 

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18 minutes ago, Le duke said:

Well, it showed he had enough high level defense to survive a Hidlay onslaught for 6 minutes. Plenty of others would have been teched in the first period. Hidlay took 3rd at senior nationals at 74kg not too long ago, beating Wick 11-8. Wick teched Deakin, blah blah blah, transitive property, or not, blah blah. Point being, Hidlay and Deakin are top 2 at 157, and Berge held him to one takedown. 

In terms of offense, a lot of that is timing, and that only comes with live wrestling. Given that he was more or less not wrestling for a good while after his abbreviated season, if he stays healthy, his timing and offensive output will likely improve. 

In terms of the last time they wrestled folkstyle against eachother, Deakin controlled every aspect of that match.

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8 minutes ago, Le duke said:

Well, it showed he had enough high level defense to survive a Hidlay onslaught for 6 minutes. Plenty of others would have been teched in the first period. Hidlay took 3rd at senior nationals at 74kg not too long ago, beating Wick 11-8. Wick teched Deakin, blah blah blah, transitive property, or not, blah blah. Point being, Hidlay and Deakin are top 2 at 157, and Berge held him to one takedown. 

In terms of offense, a lot of that is timing, and that only comes with live wrestling. Given that he was more or less not wrestling for a good while after his abbreviated season, if he stays healthy, his timing and offensive output will likely improve. 

Freestyle is a different beast and Berge has always been able to slow down a match and hold position.  A 9-4 loss would give me more optimism than 5-0.

As far as transitive properties go, I prefer to use real data in the same style.  We finally saw Deakin go a healthy, full season last year.  He went 21-0 and beat Hidlay decisively 6-2.   Not to say Hidlay couldn't beat him.  I would just favor Deakin, if healthy.

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