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141 Rankings

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Apologies if this was covered elsewhere, but what's the rationale for the top 3 at 141, especially on Flo?

Flo: Rivera, Eierman, Lee
Intermat: Eierman, Lee, Woods, Rivera
Track: Eierman, Lee, Rivera
TOM: Eierman, Lee, Rivera

I cannot think of a reason to have Rivera above Lee, and it stinks that their potential matchup was canceled. I get Eierman a bit more, if you want to go back to a head to head match nearly 3 years ago and actually placing at 141. Of course, some of that requires assuming that nothing has changed in the past year where Lee was pretty clearly a step above his performance in prior years and Eierman sat out except to show up at the US Open where he lost to Lee and Molinaro (who Lee beat at that event).

So, convince me that Eierman, Rivera, or both should be above Lee. At some point, you have to just make a decision without having great data, but how did all four rankers come to the same conclusion that Eierman should be above Lee?

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2 minutes ago, tigerfan said:

How is Lee still ranked at all? Has he completed at all this year? Doesn’t Flo have a policy about removing guys from rankings if they miss a certain amount of time?

Most teams have what, 2 or 3 duals to this point?  Little early to be pulling somebody from the rankings.

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14 minutes ago, tigerfan said:

How is Lee still ranked at all? Has he completed at all this year? Doesn’t Flo have a policy about removing guys from rankings if they miss a certain amount of time?

This year is weird. Not ranking any PSU guys for example would be dumb. 

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22 minutes ago, IronChef said:

Apologies if this was covered elsewhere, but what's the rationale for the top 3 at 141, especially on Flo?

Flo: Rivera, Eierman, Lee
Intermat: Eierman, Lee, Woods, Rivera
Track: Eierman, Lee, Rivera
TOM: Eierman, Lee, Rivera

I cannot think of a reason to have Rivera above Lee, and it stinks that their potential matchup was canceled. I get Eierman a bit more, if you want to go back to a head to head match nearly 3 years ago and actually placing at 141. Of course, some of that requires assuming that nothing has changed in the past year where Lee was pretty clearly a step above his performance in prior years and Eierman sat out except to show up at the US Open where he lost to Lee and Molinaro (who Lee beat at that event).

So, convince me that Eierman, Rivera, or both should be above Lee. At some point, you have to just make a decision without having great data, but how did all four rankers come to the same conclusion that Eierman should be above Lee?

Let's see the top 5 and current records for all 5, that might tells us something.

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unless you start taking freestyle results into account for NCAA ranking, which even with covid I don't think makes sense, I don't see the justification for Lee above Eierman. I do see putting Eierman ahead of Rivera tho. Rivera is up at a weight class where he's never wrestled before this year and Eierman has a proven track record at 141.

There are many ways to look at it but a big part of the reason why Flo came to the conclusion that Rivera should start at #1 and Eierman #2 is that Rivera has wins over Gross and RBY from Big Tens of 2020. Eierman didn't wrestle folkstyle in 2019-20 but beat Mitch McKee and Dom Demas. Eierman has a win over Yianni in the 2017-18 season. Rivera has two wins over Spencer Lee in the 2018-19 season. 

You can read all that and come to different conclusions. I'm open to arguments from both sides and would be happy to here from all sides.

Also should make note that the rankings Flo for NCAA wrestling are not predictions. Nick Lee might be favored to win against both Eierman and Rivera but would still be ranked below. Not saying he is favored either, just wanted to point that out to avoid that part of the conversation. 

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7 minutes ago, hammerlockthree said:

is this the best weight? Its a crime Yianni in there.

I'll take Rivera. He's as tough as Lee, doesn't get tired, significant offence, wins close matches. 

You believe that Yianni would be 41?

Rivera is as tough as Lee, agreed.

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1 hour ago, Mphillips said:

You believe that Yianni would be 41?

Rivera is as tough as Lee, agreed.

Idk about yianni's weight, but you're probably right unless he is just a weirdo who hates lifting (some assume all these guys lift but they are wrong).

Glad someone agreed with the toughness comment, Lee is a good soldier, but Rivera has that plus the "crazy eyes" edge. I consider him underrated. 

Edited by hammerlockthree

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Definitely tough to rank these three.   Each guy has wrestled three varsity seasons.  Each guy has been pretty amazing.

Looking at their career losses:  Rivera's has only 11 career losses and 10 of them have been to NCAA Champions or finalists (throwing out one injury default).  The lone outlier being a loss to Taylor LaMont during his freshman season.   Eierman has 14 career losses and a whopping 12 of them have been to NCAA Champions or finalists.  The lone outliers being Colby Smith and Josh Alber.  Nick Lee has 12 career losses but only 4 have been to NCAA Champions or finalists.  I would rank their losses 1 Rivera, 2 Eierman, 3 Lee.

Looking at their best career wins:  Rivera has 5 career wins over NCAA Champions or finalists and has twice defeated Spencer Lee .  Eierman has 4 career wins over NCAA Champions or finalists and has a win over Yianni D.  Nick Lee just one career win over an NCAA Champion or finalist.  I would rank their signature wins 1 Rivera, 2 Eierman, 3 Lee in terms of signature wins.

So if you consider their entire careers, I think Flo has the correct order.  If you consider who most recently had a dominant NCAA season at 141 pounds, then you could probably make an argument for Nick Lee.   I guess we'll find out soon enough.  It's going to be a pretty decent Big 10 tournament.

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1 hour ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

unless you start taking freestyle results into account for NCAA ranking, which even with covid I don't think makes sense, I don't see the justification for Lee above Eierman. I do see putting Eierman ahead of Rivera tho. Rivera is up at a weight class where he's never wrestled before this year and Eierman has a proven track record at 141.

There are many ways to look at it but a big part of the reason why Flo came to the conclusion that Rivera should start at #1 and Eierman #2 is that Rivera has wins over Gross and RBY from Big Tens of 2020. Eierman didn't wrestle folkstyle in 2019-20 but beat Mitch McKee and Dom Demas. Eierman has a win over Yianni in the 2017-18 season. Rivera has two wins over Spencer Lee in the 2018-19 season. 

You can read all that and come to different conclusions. I'm open to arguments from both sides and would be happy to here from all sides.

Also should make note that the rankings Flo for NCAA wrestling are not predictions. Nick Lee might be favored to win against both Eierman and Rivera but would still be ranked below. Not saying he is favored either, just wanted to point that out to avoid that part of the conversation. 

Ranking Rivera #1 at 141 exposes the lie that Flo rankings are only about results and are not predictions. You yourself are extrapolating wins at other weight classes in your justification above. Said another way, you are making a prediction. As a matter of fact, placing Rivera anywhere in the 141 rankings before he wrested a single match at 141 required a prediction of some sort. It's OK. We all know rankings have an element of predictions to them. Go ahead. You can say it. The Rankers Guild is really a cover for the Rankers Guilt.

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2 hours ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

unless you start taking freestyle results into account for NCAA ranking, which even with covid I don't think makes sense, I don't see the justification for Lee above Eierman. I do see putting Eierman ahead of Rivera tho. Rivera is up at a weight class where he's never wrestled before this year and Eierman has a proven track record at 141.

There are many ways to look at it but a big part of the reason why Flo came to the conclusion that Rivera should start at #1 and Eierman #2 is that Rivera has wins over Gross and RBY from Big Tens of 2020. Eierman didn't wrestle folkstyle in 2019-20 but beat Mitch McKee and Dom Demas. Eierman has a win over Yianni in the 2017-18 season. Rivera has two wins over Spencer Lee in the 2018-19 season. 

You can read all that and come to different conclusions. I'm open to arguments from both sides and would be happy to here from all sides.

Also should make note that the rankings Flo for NCAA wrestling are not predictions. Nick Lee might be favored to win against both Eierman and Rivera but would still be ranked below. Not saying he is favored either, just wanted to point that out to avoid that part of the conversation. 

You have to disbelieve your own eyes to be a flo ranker, which renders the rankings silly in some regards. 

Obligatory "rankings are not predictions" reference.

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1 hour ago, sludgeworth said:

Definitely tough to rank these three.   Each guy has wrestled three varsity seasons.  Each guy has been pretty amazing.

Looking at their career losses:  Rivera's has only 11 career losses and 10 of them have been to NCAA Champions or finalists (throwing out one injury default).  The lone outlier being a loss to Taylor LaMont during his freshman season.   Eierman has 14 career losses and a whopping 12 of them have been to NCAA Champions or finalists.  The lone outliers being Colby Smith and Josh Alber.  Nick Lee has 12 career losses but only 4 have been to NCAA Champions or finalists.  I would rank their losses 1 Rivera, 2 Eierman, 3 Lee.

Looking at their best career wins:  Rivera has 5 career wins over NCAA Champions or finalists and has twice defeated Spencer Lee .  Eierman has 4 career wins over NCAA Champions or finalists and has a win over Yianni D.  Nick Lee just one career win over an NCAA Champion or finalist.  I would rank their signature wins 1 Rivera, 2 Eierman, 3 Lee in terms of signature wins.

So if you consider their entire careers, I think Flo has the correct order.  If you consider who most recently had a dominant NCAA season at 141 pounds, then you could probably make an argument for Nick Lee.   I guess we'll find out soon enough.  It's going to be a pretty decent Big 10 tournament.

And didn't Lee get pinned by a non starting true freshman who didn't wrestle last year and can't make the starting lineup this year?

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3 hours ago, Mphillips said:

I'm not sure how you rank 141, but this doesn't look right and I'm not sure how to fix it?

That's easy - You put them all in one big tournament and let them wrestle!!!  :) Hopefully that happens this year

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9 minutes ago, ionel said:

And didn't Lee get pinned by a non starting true freshman who didn't wrestle last year and can't make the starting lineup this year?

What is that referring to?  I follow wrestling pretty closely and don't know what you are talking about.  Last year in college Lee split with Pletcher and ended the season with one loss.  Please explain.  Thanks.

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no way Sebass over Lee/Eierman.

Sebass literally never wrestled the weight.

I get the high quality wins. But none of them occurred at the weight!

Sebass over Lee/Eierman only if you're talking P4P process. 

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58 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

What is that referring to?  I follow wrestling pretty closely and don't know what you are talking about.  Last year in college Lee split with Pletcher and ended the season with one loss.  Please explain.  Thanks.

He is talking of gfeller from ok st.

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49 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

What is that referring to?  I follow wrestling pretty closely and don't know what you are talking about.  Last year in college Lee split with Pletcher and ended the season with one loss.  Please explain.  Thanks.

He's talking about Kaden Gfeller who pinned Nick Lee in the final of the Southern Scuffle in 2018 when he was a true freshman prior to having his redshirt pulled. Wrestlestat had Gellar ranked 10 at the time even though he was also redshirting.

Needless to say, he is playing a little fast and loose with the facts. Because, you know, how pertinent freshman results are to a wrestlers senior year.

By the way, Chad Red also beat Nick Lee in high school. About as applicable.

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4 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

He's talking about Kaden Gfeller who pinned Nick Lee in the final of the Southern Scuffle in 2018 when he was a true freshman prior to having his redshirt pulled. Wrestlestat had Gellar ranked 10 at the time even though he was also redshirting.

Needless to say, he is playing a little fast and loose with the facts. Because, you know, how pertinent freshman results are to a wrestlers senior year.

By the way, Chad Red also beat Nick Lee in high school. About as applicable.

Got it - thanks - you are right it's not to relevant to Nick Lee now.  I would say last years results where he would have been a very good bet to be a NCAA finalist is a better indicator of how good he is.

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7 hours ago, Husker_Du said:

no way Sebass over Lee/Eierman.

Sebass literally never wrestled the weight.

I get the high quality wins. But none of them occurred at the weight!

Sebass over Lee/Eierman only if you're talking P4P process. 

This point makes zero sense.  It is not uncommon for great wrestlers to naturally move up a weight and achieve a top ranking.  Dake probably did it three times.  Same for Taylor, though probably only once or twice.  Cael from 84 to 97?  

This isn’t rocket science and projecting — which is all it is — a highly successful wrestler up one weight class as the top guy is not as preposterous as you make it seem.

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24 minutes ago, Sstern said:

This point makes zero sense.  It is not uncommon for great wrestlers to naturally move up a weight and achieve a top ranking.  Dake probably did it three times.  Same for Taylor, though probably only once or twice.  Cael from 84 to 97?  

This isn’t rocket science and projecting — which is all it is — a highly successful wrestler up one weight class as the top guy is not as preposterous as you make it seem.

Rankings are done based on your results at a given weight and Rivera has no quality wins yet.I think he can win the weight but no way he can be ranked #1 yet

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