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Season rankings are not the same as career rankings. If you want to say Rivera has had a more impressive career than Lee, that's a good argument. For ranking a single weight in 2021, beating a guy two years ago and two weights down should not have much pull. To me, the most heavily considered results should be those that are at the weight and those that are the most recent.

With Eierman, there isn't much recent, so you have to make a call. I can understand why someone would not want to use a freestyle result as definitive, but Lee beating Eierman four takedowns to zero could at least be a tiebreaker if needed.

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3 hours ago, Sstern said:

This point makes zero sense.  It is not uncommon for great wrestlers to naturally move up a weight and achieve a top ranking.  Dake probably did it three times.  Same for Taylor, though probably only once or twice.  Cael from 84 to 97?  

This isn’t rocket science and projecting — which is all it is — a highly successful wrestler up one weight class as the top guy is not as preposterous as you make it seem.

you have no idea what you're talking about. first things first, rankings are not projections. 

the discussion here is regarding a rankings process.

when you evaluate the field you don't put a guy #1 who has literally never wrestled at the weight (or anyone in the weight (unless there are exceedingly unusual circumstances)).

Eierman was 3rd twice at the weight. Sebass' highest NCAA place was 3rd at 125 and a #1 seed at 133.

You can say you think Sebass 1) will win the title this year 2) has better career wins 3) has had a better overall career

but you cannot rank them that way preseason. 

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Well if we're going off of actual results, Lee should undoubtedly be ranked ahead still.

They have one common opponent.  Drew Marten of Central Michigan.  They wrestled him within a month of one another.  Obviously Lee got him before Marten made the drop to 133lbs.

Lee 18-0 techfalled him in 3:32(11/17/19) whereas Rivera won via Major 13-2(12/29/2019).

That there should be enough to use common sense.

Now to Eierman-Rivera.  Same guy.  Eierman won via pinfall in 5:36(1/19/19).

I believe Rivera will be good, great even.  He doesn't have the results to warrant a ranking ahead of Lee or Eierman, let alone a #1 ranking at 141lbs.

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42 minutes ago, Husker_Du said:

you have no idea what you're talking about. first things first, rankings are not projections. 

the discussion here is regarding a rankings process.

when you evaluate the field you don't put a guy #1 who has literally never wrestled at the weight (or anyone in the weight (unless there are exceedingly unusual circumstances)).

Eierman was 3rd twice at the weight. Sebass' highest NCAA place was 3rd at 125 and a #1 seed at 133.

You can say you think Sebass 1) will win the title this year 2) has better career wins 3) has had a better overall career

but you cannot rank them that way preseason. 

Eierman has placed 3/4/& 5 at the weight to be precise.  I would rank them Lee Eirman, Rivera but that is because I would give Lee credit for the tournament that didn't happen.  I believe he very likely would have been a finalist and had a good chance of winning the title.  

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14 minutes ago, Husker_Du said:

I'm cool with Eierman or Lee at 1. i get the case for both (though i'd got Eierman 1 b/c last folk head-to-head). i just can't see the rationale for Sebass.

I agree with that outlook

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13 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Ranking Rivera #1 at 141 exposes the lie that Flo rankings are only about results and are not predictions. You yourself are extrapolating wins at other weight classes in your justification above. Said another way, you are making a prediction. As a matter of fact, placing Rivera anywhere in the 141 rankings before he wrested a single match at 141 required a prediction of some sort. It's OK. We all know rankings have an element of predictions to them. Go ahead. You can say it. The Rankers Guild is really a cover for the Rankers Guilt.

there's never been a prohibition to not ranking guys in new weights when they bump up. that goes for NCAA, high school and international rankings.

of course there is some art to the science of rankings. thank you for acknowledging the supremacy of the rankers guild but you should at least start attending some meetings before you try and speak on the guild's behalf. 

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33 minutes ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

there's never been a prohibition to not ranking guys in new weights when they bump up. that goes for NCAA, high school and international rankings.

of course there is some art to the science of rankings. thank you for acknowledging the supremacy of the rankers guild but you should at least start attending some meetings before you try and speak on the guild's behalf. 

Ha ha. We need to work on your critical reading skills if you saw anything in my argument to suggest the supremacy of the Rankers Guild. 

When is the next meeting? Is there a Festivus section of the meeting? What time does the airing of grievances begin?

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2 hours ago, Husker_Du said:

you have no idea what you're talking about. first things first, rankings are not projections. 

the discussion here is regarding a rankings process.

when you evaluate the field you don't put a guy #1 who has literally never wrestled at the weight (or anyone in the weight (unless there are exceedingly unusual circumstances)).

Eierman was 3rd twice at the weight. Sebass' highest NCAA place was 3rd at 125 and a #1 seed at 133.

You can say you think Sebass 1) will win the title this year 2) has better career wins 3) has had a better overall career

but you cannot rank them that way preseason. 

That’s your “rule.” As long as someone is at the weight, able to wrestle this year, and has a track record, he can be ranked.  There is nothing special, or in my opinion thoughtful, about your rule.  In fact, just the opposite.  One would think an “expert” would be able to extrapolate such a ranking given these particular set of facts.

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I don't get the justification for Rivera at #1 at all. Has to be Eierman or Lee. I think there is justification for both. Eierman owns the only folkstyle win and it was dominant, but Lee owns the more recent match up even though it's in a different style. The safer pick is Eierman, but either is fine imo. Rivera is unjustifiable, especially under Flo's self-proclaimed results-based rankings. Rivera #1 is a projection, not a ranking.

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16 hours ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

There are many ways to look at it but a big part of the reason why Flo came to the conclusion that Rivera should start at #1 and Eierman #2 is that Rivera has wins over Gross and RBY from Big Tens of 2020. Eierman didn't wrestle folkstyle in 2019-20 but beat Mitch McKee and Dom Demas. Eierman has a win over Yianni in the 2017-18 season. Rivera has two wins over Spencer Lee in the 2018-19 season. 

Yeah I disagree but I think I figured it out:

Eierman lost to Josh Alber in 2019

Josh Alber lost to Micic in 2017

Micic lost to Gross in 2018

Rivera beat Gross last year

Therefore, Rivera over Eierman!!

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guys changing weights presents a conundrum for results-based rankings. You're basically left with two less than ideal options. Either take nothing but results at the weight class into account, or make assumptions based on results in other other weight classes. i feel that the first option is worse than the second, as it would mean a guy like Rivera would start the year outside the top 25, despite having multiple wins over the current P4P #1 wrestler. 

so we have rivera ranked #1 despite having not wrestled at 141 in his career, but still based on results in other weights. This happens all the time, with guys moving up or down and results in other weights are used to determine rank in their new weight, it just doesn't get a lot of attention because its not a high profile case.

and i can see where people would want to say that makes it a projection but really its an interpretation of the results. and its in that interpretation where rankers, and everyone else, come to different conclusions. which i'm happy to see. its a marketplace of ideas and people are free to decide for themselves. 

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11 minutes ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

guys changing weights presents a conundrum for results-based rankings. You're basically left with two less than ideal options. Either take nothing but results at the weight class into account, or make assumptions based on results in other other weight classes. i feel that the first option is worse than the second, as it would mean a guy like Rivera would start the year outside the top 25, despite having multiple wins over the current P4P #1 wrestler. 

so we have rivera ranked #1 despite having not wrestled at 141 in his career, but still based on results in other weights. This happens all the time, with guys moving up or down and results in other weights are used to determine rank in their new weight, it just doesn't get a lot of attention because its not a high profile case.

and i can see where people would want to say that makes it a projection but really its an interpretation of the results. and its in that interpretation where rankers, and everyone else, come to different conclusions. which i'm happy to see. its a marketplace of ideas and people are free to decide for themselves. 

Boy, you really have to torture the thesaurus to get it to say interpretation of results for projection. Well done. Now let that thesaurus go free.

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17 minutes ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

guys changing weights presents a conundrum for results-based rankings. You're basically left with two less than ideal options. Either take nothing but results at the weight class into account, or make assumptions based on results in other other weight classes. i feel that the first option is worse than the second, as it would mean a guy like Rivera would start the year outside the top 25, despite having multiple wins over the current P4P #1 wrestler. 

so we have rivera ranked #1 despite having not wrestled at 141 in his career, but still based on results in other weights. This happens all the time, with guys moving up or down and results in other weights are used to determine rank in their new weight, it just doesn't get a lot of attention because its not a high profile case.

and i can see where people would want to say that makes it a projection but really its an interpretation of the results. and its in that interpretation where rankers, and everyone else, come to different conclusions. which i'm happy to see. its a marketplace of ideas and people are free to decide for themselves. 

I would disagree with those who say that you cannot rank a guy in a new weight without results there.  Reasonable projections can be made as guys move up in weight.  Is there anyone who would try to make the argument that Cael or Bo should not have been ranked their senior years when they moved up to 197? or Logan S as a junior moving up to 141?  That being said it is not unreasonable to give the benefit of the doubt to the wrestler who has competed at the higher weight if records and accomplishments are comparable.  For that reason I think Rivera should be behind Lee and Eierman right now.  3rd is the right place for Sebass at the moment.

Edited by lu1979

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16 minutes ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

guys changing weights presents a conundrum for results-based rankings. You're basically left with two less than ideal options. Either take nothing but results at the weight class into account, or make assumptions based on results in other other weight classes. i feel that the first option is worse than the second, as it would mean a guy like Rivera would start the year outside the top 25, despite having multiple wins over the current P4P #1 wrestler. 

so we have rivera ranked #1 despite having not wrestled at 141 in his career, but still based on results in other weights. This happens all the time, with guys moving up or down and results in other weights are used to determine rank in their new weight, it just doesn't get a lot of attention because its not a high profile case.

and i can see where people would want to say that makes it a projection but really its an interpretation of the results. and its in that interpretation where rankers, and everyone else, come to different conclusions. which i'm happy to see. its a marketplace of ideas and people are free to decide for themselves. 

FLO didn't like the result of RBY vs Desanto, so they ignored it.  So, all this talk about results doesn't hold as much weight as you are making it out to be.

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5 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

I would disagree with those who say that you cannot rank a guy in a new weight without results there.  Reasonable projections can be made as guys move up in weight.  Is there anyone who would try to make the argument that Cael or Bo should not have been ranked their senior years when they moved up to 197? or Logan S as a junior moving up to 141?  That being said it is not unreasonable to give the benefit of the doubt to the wrestler who has competed at the higher weight if records and accomplishments are comparable.  For that reason I think Rivera should be behind Lee and Eierman right now.  3rd is the right place for Sebass at the moment.

those guys you listed were all national champs at lower weights and then moved up.  Last time we saw Rivera at NCAA's he was wearing a saddle.  Even last year without NCAA's he caught a break without Micic, Suriano and Fix in the weight class.  I don't see any justification to rank him #1 over 2 guys that have proven themselves legit title threats at 141 over the last 3 years.

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9 minutes ago, jchapman said:

FLO didn't like the result of RBY vs Desanto, so they ignored it.  So, all this talk about results doesn't hold as much weight as you are making it out to be.

Flo also denies using freestyle results in their rankings ........... until it suits them. Witness their rationale earlier this year for Carson Kharchla. 

Edited by TBar1977

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1 minute ago, Bozak2018 said:

those guys you listed were all national champs at lower weights and then moved up.  Last time we saw Rivera at NCAA's he was wearing a saddle.  Even last year without NCAA's he caught a break without Micic, Suriano and Fix in the weight class.  I don't see any justification to rank him #1 over 2 guys that have proven themselves legit title threats at 141 over the last 3 years.

I didn't say Rivera should be ranked ahead of Lee and Eierman.  In fact I said the exact opposite quite clearly.  The last time we saw Rivera he was upsetting a past National Champion to make the finals and win Big 10s at 133.  That is why I think he should be ranked 3rd at 141 at this time.   My general point was that you can rank guys moving up in weight.   

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15 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

I didn't say Rivera should be ranked ahead of Lee and Eierman.  In fact I said the exact opposite quite clearly.  The last time we saw Rivera he was upsetting a past National Champion to make the finals and win Big 10s at 133.  That is why I think he should be ranked 3rd at 141 at this time.   My general point was that you can rank guys moving up in weight.   

I don't think Spey is saying you can't rank Rivera third.  I think you and he are agreeing that Rivera on his prior results at lower weight classes, you're just differing on how those results should be valued.  Out of the three guys, Rivera has three of the four best wins, beating Spencer Lee twice and Seth Gross.  Eierman has the other, beating Yianni.

Personally, though, I would rank Rivera third, behind Lee and Eierman.  But I can see the logic for all three.

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39 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

I would disagree with those who say that you cannot rank a guy in a new weight without results there.  Reasonable projections can be made as guys move up in weight.  Is there anyone who would try to make the argument that Cael or Bo should not have been ranked their senior years when they moved up to 197? or Logan S as a junior moving up to 141?  That being said it is not unreasonable to give the benefit of the doubt to the wrestler who has competed at the higher weight if records and accomplishments are comparable.  For that reason I think Rivera should be behind Lee and Eierman right now.  3rd is the right place for Sebass at the moment.

Of course you can.  The point is that Flo likes to point out that they base their rankings off of results.   However there isn't a real basis in results to put Rivera at #1.

 

13 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

I don't think Spey is saying you can't rank Rivera third.  I think you and he are agreeing that Rivera on his prior results at lower weight classes, you're just differing on how those results should be valued.  Out of the three guys, Rivera has three of the four best wins, beating Spencer Lee twice and Seth Gross.  Eierman has the other, beating Yianni.

Personally, though, I would rank Rivera third, behind Lee and Eierman.  But I can see the logic for all three.

A win over Spencer Lee at 125 2 years ago shouldn't mean anything for 141 rankings IMO.    Gross yes.

 

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11 minutes ago, IronChef said:

Spencer Lee's name should not come up in this discussion. Wins from two seasons ago should have limited value to begin with. Wins from two seasons ago and two weight classes down should have even less.

Doesn't that also describe Eireman's win over Yianni? 

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4 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Doesn't that also describe Eireman's win over Yianni? 

It's at least at the weight.

The other thing to consider, although it's hard to do if you want to strictly limit yourself to "results," is that all 3 of Rivera's big wins were over dominant guys during the their worst season (not counting Gross's year at 141). Spencer was struggling big time by his standards and Gross was much better during his previous 2 years at 133.

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20 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

It's at least at the weight.

The other thing to consider, although it's hard to do if you want to strictly limit yourself to "results," is that all 3 of Rivera's big wins were over dominant guys during the their worst season (not counting Gross's year at 141). Spencer was struggling big time by his standards and Gross was much better during his previous 2 years at 133.

The Eirman win is from Dec. 2017, and he then lost 3x to Yianni. And if anyone is going to mention Yianni then they should also mention he decided to not wrestle Lee for 3rd at the US Open after Lee drummed Eirman.  

Edited by TBar1977

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