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RoosterAttack

Michigan Natty Chances

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I mean they have 4 legit NC contenders and almost everyone else has a outside chance to place so figured they might be only ones that can push Iowa and you never know with covid! I thought someone said Micic would be back soon just a little banged up but that might have been Amine idk?

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6 minutes ago, RoosterAttack said:

I mean they have 4 legit NC contenders and almost everyone else has a outside chance to place so figured they might be only ones that can push Iowa and you never know with covid! I thought someone said Micic would be back soon just a little banged up but that might have been Amine idk?

I  don't remember the day Michigan kicked a door down and put the world on notice. That has to happen a few years before you take the title. Though not in tOSUs case, but i think its generally true.

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39 minutes ago, hammerlockthree said:

I  don't remember the day Michigan kicked a door down and put the world on notice. That has to happen a few years before you take the title. Though not in tOSUs case, but i think its generally true.

True I actually think there chances are better next year if the seniors stick around another year. Plus nationals is in their own backyard

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1 hour ago, RoosterAttack said:

I think michigan might have just taken a huge blow as the current European qualifier for Tokyo is now slated as the same weekend as ncaa championships. I wonder if this will effect micic and amines attendance at nationals than?!

Aren't Micic and Myles Amine already qualified for the Olympics?  

Those who are already qualified for the Olympics due to placing top-5 at Worlds can't enter the qualifier.  So Micic and Myles Amine would be free to enter NCAA's.

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7 hours ago, RoosterAttack said:

I mean they have 4 legit NC contenders and almost everyone else has a outside chance to place so figured they might be only ones that can push Iowa and you never know with covid! I thought someone said Micic would be back soon just a little banged up but that might have been Amine idk?

"And you never know with covid" is the only part of this that really adds up.

Flo rankings have those 4 guys getting three seconds and a first and the team still trailing by 54 points.

I would bet on Iowa's top 4 finishers outscoring Michigan's. At worst they'd be a few points behind.  Then the other 6 weights are a total and complete mismatch. It would take a rash of illness or injury to make a difference.  In any other year that would be unfathomable. 

Agree that Michigan has loaded up and has a legit shot at second. But the numbers aren't there.  And the point above about the program not pounding on the door has some merit. Their guys have not really seized the day to date in March.

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1 hour ago, drag it said:

"And you never know with covid" is the only part of this that really adds up.

Flo rankings have those 4 guys getting three seconds and a first and the team still trailing by 54 points.

I would bet on Iowa's top 4 finishers outscoring Michigan's. At worst they'd be a few points behind.  Then the other 6 weights are a total and complete mismatch. It would take a rash of illness or injury to make a difference.  In any other year that would be unfathomable. 

Agree that Michigan has loaded up and has a legit shot at second. But the numbers aren't there.  And the point above about the program not pounding on the door has some merit. Their guys have not really seized the day to date in March.

Flo has Ragusin at 15, he has a good chance to AA and could be a finalist.  That obviously doesn’t make up the difference but if they get 3 champs or something and 7-8 total AA’s combined with an Iowa underperformance it seems feasible.

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Michigan has some huge upside, but also some pretty low point possibilities.

125-Ragusin could take 2nd and he could also fo 2 and out.  We just haven't seen enough of him, but I will caution Michigan folks to think of both Coon and Parris in their true frosh seasons.  Both fizzled.

133-Micic could win it or he could not even wrestle.  We haven't even seen him yet.  If he competes I see Top 5 at the worst.

141-Mattin will depend on the draw.  He is steady enough that he could low AA with the right draw or also 2 and out.

149-Storr is so frustrating.  I cite following him growing up as reasoning for being a fsn, but he tends to wrestle to his opponent's ability.  So he could get Top 4/5 depending on the draw, or also only win 1 or 2 matches.

157-Lewan seems to have improved a good amount (he did beat Young in Freestyle at U23s) so I could see a Top 4 finish, but there are a lot of 157lbers right there in that tier.  A low AA is more realistic and no medal also possible.

165-I think low AA is the ceiling here, but again... no points is possible.  Amine still is quite small for the weight compared to some ither more seasoned gents.

174-Massa could win it or he, hate to say it, could not.  If healthy he should AA, but he is a smaller 174lber and if he tries to go beastmode with gents like Labs or Romero he's going to get dropped on his head and horsed around.

184-Depends on if Amine or if someone else.  Amine can win 184 or 197.  He can also 'only' AA.  His style in folkstyle doesn't bode well against the strong guys, I think.  Guys like Hidlay, Bolen will give him fits at 184.  If anyone else the peak is AA, with tremendous luck, and floor is not even qualifying the weight.

197-Same thing as far as Amine goes.  The bigger 197lbers may just be too big for him for folkstyle.  We'll see.  Anyone other than Amine here and AA is the peak, with tremendous luck, and not even qualifying is the floor.

285-Parris can win it.  Or he can have a bad match pre-finals against Cassman or Stencel or someone and take 3rd.  His floor is 4th depending on draws and if/where Kerkvliet is present in the bracket.

Those are huge swings.  Peak is likely still 2nd, though, as not only would the stars need to align and Michigan gents win a tonne of matches they shouldn't,  but the Iowa gents would need to lose a bunch they shouldn't too.

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4 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Flo has Ragusin at 15, he has a good chance to AA and could be a finalist.  That obviously doesn’t make up the difference but if they get 3 champs or something and 7-8 total AA’s combined with an Iowa underperformance it seems feasible.

To have a chance at being a finalist he needs to stay where he is at 15 and not slide down a spot.  Or down two spots. Or gain 6, 7, 10, or 11 spots.  :) 

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11 minutes ago, drag it said:

To have a chance at being a finalist he needs to stay where he is at 15 and not slide down a spot.  Or down two spots. Or gain 6, 7, 10, or 11 spots.  :) 

Because Ranked 15 on Flo means 15 seed?

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11 minutes ago, drag it said:

Yeah - that assumed hypothetical fact was my jumping off point for my bad joke.  

I'm just being a real mcdouche.  I got it. :P

If he contends for 2nd at NCAAs he'll likely contend for 2nd at B1Gs as well.  That means he'll be considerably higher than 15th seed.

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54 minutes ago, Sstern said:

I think if Amines at 84 he wins it.

That is going to be a very competitive weight - Hidley is my pick to win but I could see any of the top 4 - Amine, Bolen, Hidley, or Brooks taking it.  It is hard to judge with this reduced schedule where these guys aren't seeing each other. 

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Michigan does have a shot at winning it all but it will take Iowa not performing up to what they seem to be capable of right now.  Right now Iowa looks like they could produce 10 AAs with 1/2 of them in the top 3.  If they do that no one else has the depth to catch them.  Michigan has their 4 studs that could all make the finals.  Of those 4 I think Micic and Amine have the best shot at finishing on top of the podium.   Beyond that I think they have 4 other guys that could AA in Ragusin, Storr, Lewan, and the unproven (to date) Cam Amine (I just have a feeling he is going to be in the mix w/ the Valencia Skidgel, Joe Lee group).  If Michigan can perform to their peak and Iowa blows it they could do it this year.  I don't think next year is any better for them even if their seniors reup.  Iowa will probably bring everyone back, PSU will be back much stronger and Cornell will also be in the mix.

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37 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

Michigan does have a shot at winning it all but it will take Iowa not performing up to what they seem to be capable of right now.  Right now Iowa looks like they could produce 10 AAs with 1/2 of them in the top 3.  If they do that no one else has the depth to catch them.  Michigan has their 4 studs that could all make the finals.  Of those 4 I think Micic and Amine have the best shot at finishing on top of the podium.   Beyond that I think they have 4 other guys that could AA in Ragusin, Storr, Lewan, and the unproven (to date) Cam Amine (I just have a feeling he is going to be in the mix w/ the Valencia Skidgel, Joe Lee group).  If Michigan can perform to their peak and Iowa blows it they could do it this year.  I don't think next year is any better for them even if their seniors reup.  Iowa will probably bring everyone back, PSU will be back much stronger and Cornell will also be in the mix.

I think Michigan will be stronger next year forsure with the younger guys maturing a little plus they get Brucki in the lineup who's a instant top 4 contender. Also theres been a faint rumor a Stanford kid or two might be on the way which cant hurt. Also PSU and Cornell in the mix hurt Iowa just as much as Michigan

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2 hours ago, RoosterAttack said:

I think Michigan will be stronger next year forsure with the younger guys maturing a little plus they get Brucki in the lineup who's a instant top 4 contender. Also theres been a faint rumor a Stanford kid or two might be on the way which cant hurt. Also PSU and Cornell in the mix hurt Iowa just as much as Michigan

That is a good point on Brucki - I had forgot about him spending his last year in Michigan.  The key for Michigan and a lot of the other programs will be whether or not they can convince their "seniors" to extend their academic/athletic careers by one more year.  The 4 studs in the Michigan lineup that will be making that decision could account for over 70 points at Nationals. For Iowa the # is 6.  For Michigan they may have a problem with Ragusin holding 125 for another year.  Could they switch him & Micic?

Edited by lu1979

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2 hours ago, lu1979 said:

That is a good point on Brucki - I had forgot about him spending his last year in Michigan.  The key for Michigan and a lot of the other programs will be whether or not they can convince their "seniors" to extend their academic/athletic careers by one more year.  The 4 studs in the Michigan lineup that will be making that decision could account for over 70 points at Nationals. For Iowa the # is 6.  For Michigan they may have a problem with Ragusin holding 125 for another year.  Could they switch him & Micic?

True but brucki gives them 5 and if they land shane Griffith that's 6 each just something to think about but who knows. Yeah idk it ragusin can hold it he looks taller for 25 could see him redshirting and them sending out Medley who's no joke has a win over current #2 Camacho and kept #1 Lee to a decision once lol (just a joke ik what he did the next time they wrestled). Idk will be another fun year to watch B1G wrestling that's forsure

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38 minutes ago, RoosterAttack said:

True but brucki gives them 5 and if they land shane Griffith that's 6 each just something to think about but who knows. Yeah idk it ragusin can hold it he looks taller for 25 could see him redshirting and them sending out Medley who's no joke has a win over current #2 Camacho and kept #1 Lee to a decision once lol (just a joke ik what he did the next time they wrestled). Idk will be another fun year to watch B1G wrestling that's forsure

When.  When they land Griffith...

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