Jump to content
Housebuye

Will Anthony Valencia win 165?

Recommended Posts

Ok hear me out. I know he consistently underperforms, especially at NCAAs. 
  

He soundly beat formerly #3 this weekend in what I saw as a fairly big upset. 
  
Mekhi is injured. I’m not even sure if he will show up to NCAAs, let alone be competitive. Sucks, but at least this year doesn’t count. 
 
Wittlake is solid. That is likely the biggest threat outside of Marinelli and a rematch vs Griffith. 
  
Marinelli is clearly the biggest threat. They will likely be on opposite sides if Marinelli wins Big10s (which he tends to do). This is a tough matchup for Anthony, but I think it is fairly likely somebody picks on Marinelli on his run to the finals. 
  
Excited for all the nay sayers to shut their mouths about Anthony (myself included). If he wins a title, there isn’t much we can say

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do think 165 is shaping up to be an interesting race.  I am picking Wittlake to be at the top of the podium this year but Marrinelli has to be considered the favorite going in.  I think Valencia, Wentzel and Griffith all have a shot too.  It will be interesting to see how seeding goes.  I hope Lewis is healed up and ready to go.  If he is healthy he will be in contention too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we need to stop saying that A Valencia under performs.  After several years, we know the rough level he performs at.  He was a super star in HS.  Great.  It’s another jump level in college.  His level didn’t keep going up, enough to stay a super star.  It happens. I’d say, if he wins it, he will have over performed.

Edited by nom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Mphillips said:

"Soundly beat" and FLO says, "looked outstanding..."

I saw a 5pt move and some solid defensive wrestling.  I better go back and re-watch. 

No 5-point moves in collegiate wrestling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Valancia is a home run hitter.

When it comes to a tournament, the first time he gets punches in the mouth he has shown to crumble, save for the 2019 US Open in which he came back and beat Massa for 3rd.

It would be nice to say he his constitution has improved.  It is difficult to commit to that, though.

At NCAAs he's going to get punches in the mouth not once, not twice, but thrice or more.  So if he doesn't crumble, yes he can win it.  He has the talent to beat anyone and everyone who will enter the field at NCAAs.  Does he have the fortitude?  I am saying no until shown otherwise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He probably would of had 2 losses at the Iowa State/UNI/ASU dual.

Got a 6 point move against Judge of Iowa State with about 5 seconds left to come back and win.

Got a 6 point move to pin UNI kid in the 2nd period and was down in that match

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He has consistently been a top 7-15ish type guy.  Normally, that is VERY good.  He just had SOOO much hype coming into College that less than top 4 finishes out of the gate were considered failures to many.  Still, he was poised to AA last season and I think he would have.  In fact, he "technically" is an AA now.  Remember, he was also in some brutally deep weight classes.    

In 2017, he actually had a very strong Freshman campaign.  He was the 7 seed going into NCAA's  with a 32-5 record.  He actually dominated his 1st 2 rounds to make the quarterfinals.  He then got beat pretty bad by another freshman who was actually on fire(Logan Massa).  Massa was the 2 seed and finished 32-3 taking 3rd place, losing 5-4 in the semis to the eventual Champ(Joseph). After that, he did have a serious last second meltdown to lose 8-7 to Womack in the R12.

Still, the 2017 weight class had:

1.)Joseph

2.)IMAR

3.)Massa

4.)Z. Jordan

5.)Rogers

6.)D. Lewis

7.)Walsh

8.)Womack

2018:  The weight got even deeper and he would fall to the 15 seed, finishing 27-10.  He would go 2-2, losing to McFadden and Rogers, both of whom AA'd.

1.)Joseph

2.)IMar

3.)Wick

4.)Marsteller

5.)McFadden

6.)Marinelli

7.)Chavez

8.)Rogers

Guys like Walsh, Richie Lewis and Isaiah White also didn't AA.  

2019: redshirt

2020:  He went up to 174 was 22-6 and seeded 8th.  All 6 of his losses were to guys seeded ahead of him.  Looking at that bracket he should have cruised to the quarters, got lit up by Hall and then would have had a very winnable match over either Lautt(UNC), whom he smoked 10-2 a couple of weeks earlier or Richards(VMI).

On top of all that, I think being out of his brother's shadow may have helped his confidence a bit.  I would expect him to AA.  I don't expect him to win it all, but 5th or so seems very possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, buf87 said:

He probably would of had 2 losses at the Iowa State/UNI/ASU dual.

Got a 6 point move against Judge of Iowa State with about 5 seconds left to come back and win.

Got a 6 point move to pin UNI kid in the 2nd period and was down in that match

In all fairness, he won the Judge match 8-4.  He didn't NEED the 6 pts to win.  Still, the guy IS a 6 pointer waiting to happen.  He has ALWAYS been that guy.  His best offense from neutral are mainly feet to back attacks.

Also, there was still 3 minutes left when he pinned Schoenfelder.  Saying that would have been a probable loss is beyond disingenuous.............

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I included Valencia in my short list of guys who could beat Marinelli back in that thread for the exact reason we saw this weekend. He's always one move away (are you buying that a little more now TBar?).

I don't think he can put together an entire tournament, but on the other hand, 165 is pretty weak after Marinelli and Mekhi (who might not be himself anyway), so maybe he'll only need 1 big upset and he's just better than the rest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, buf87 said:

You need to watch the matches.   If he didn't have the big throw, he probably was going to lose the Judge match and wasn't showing much in the UNI match either

Just saying, when the score is ONLY 4-2 and a guy gets thrown, I have a REALLY hard time saying he was probably going to win.  Now, if it were 7-2 or better, I would agree with you. 

Also, when you get pinned 4 minutes into the match, saying you were probably going to win if you didn't get pinned, is sort of laughable.  Especially when you are 3-6 for the season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, uncle bernard said:

I included Valencia in my short list of guys who could beat Marinelli back in that thread for the exact reason we saw this weekend. He's always one move away (are you buying that a little more now TBar?).

I don't think he can put together an entire tournament, but on the other hand, 165 is pretty weak after Marinelli and Mekhi (who might not be himself anyway), so maybe he'll only need 1 big upset and he's just better than the rest.

Weak?  It definitely isn't what it was with Joseph and Wick.  But, Wittlake, Griffith, Wentzel and O'Toole are LEGIT.   On top of that, Braunagel and Smith are VERY physical.  I would agree that Marinelli and Lewis are clearly the cream of the crop.  But, 3-9ish are not all that far behind.  Hell, even then, you have to watch out for Amine and Lee.  165 is still a VERY strong weight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, buf87 said:

You need to watch the matches.   If he didn't have the big throw, he probably was going to lose the Judge match and wasn't showing much in the UNI match either

I just watched this and don't think this is right. He gave up an early takedown (tried to step in and lateral when the uni kid when for a knee pick) and then got ridden out, but a huge portion of that time he was stuck in a bottom leg turk. Then he chose neutral, hit a blast double for 2, gave up an escape, and threw the kid to his back and pinned hiim (one of the prettiest lat drops I've seen). It definitely didn't give me the impression that he got a lucky lat drop to win. He looked to be back in control.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

Weak?  It definitely isn't what it was with Joseph and Wick.  But, Wittlake, Griffith, Wentzel and O'Toole are LEGIT.   On top of that, Braunagel and Smith are VERY physical.  I would agree that Marinelli and Lewis are clearly the cream of the crop.  But, 3-9ish are not all that far behind.  Hell, even then, you have to watch out for Amine and Lee.  165 is still a VERY strong weight.

I said that because he just beat Griffith, who before that, I would have said was the best of that list. O'Toole is a wildcard. Point being that he may only have to beat 1 guy who I would confidently say is a better wrestler than him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

I just watched this and don't think this is right. He gave up an early takedown (tried to step in and lateral when the uni kid when for a knee pick) and then got ridden out, but a huge portion of that time he was stuck in a bottom leg turk. Then he chose neutral, hit a blast double for 2, gave up an escape, and threw the kid to his back and pinned hiim (one of the prettiest lat drops I've seen). It definitely didn't give me the impression that he got a lucky lat drop to win. He looked to be back in control.

You may be right on the UNI match.  I remember UNI had a strong 1st period and rode him hard and knew the pin was in the 2nd period.   Neither of these guys were ranked very high and Valencia didn't look top 5 that day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, uncle bernard said:

I said that because he just beat Griffith, who before that, I would have said was the best of that list. O'Toole is a wildcard. Point being that he may only have to beat 1 guy who I would confidently say is a better wrestler than him.

I get where you were going. Just “weak” is a bit of a trigger word description.  I took the word literally. But, we do agree there is a drop off after Marinelli and Lewis and Lewis’s health could drop him down to that level or lower. 
 

But, Wentzel looks like a matchup nightmare for Valencia and I would rather not see Alex draw him either. He looks to be every bit as strong as the Bull and his mat wrestling is nasty!

Edited by MSU158

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

I get where you were going. Just “weak” is a bit of a trigger word description.  I took the word literally. But, we do agree there is a drop off after Marinelli and Lewis and Lewis’s health could drop him down to that level or lower. 
 

But, Wentzel looks like a matchup nightmare for Valencia and I would rather not see Alex draw him either. He looks to be every bit as strong as the Bull and his mat wrestling is nasty!

Shouldn't we all want to see the national champ wrestle the second best guy out there?

Also, can we all just agree that Alex is gonna get a bad draw?  Unless he does a bbq (see other thread) he will have to wrestle two or three studs.  :0    ;_; 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MSU158 said:

I get where you were going. Just “weak” is a bit of a trigger word description.  I took the word literally. But, we do agree there is a drop off after Marinelli and Lewis and Lewis’s health could drop him down to that level or lower. 
 

But, Wentzel looks like a matchup nightmare for Valencia and I would rather not see Alex draw him either. He looks to be every bit as strong as the Bull and his mat wrestling is nasty!

I agree on the match up issue. Not worried on their feet, but Marinelli struggles with leg riders, partially because his giant brace makes it difficult to clear legs once they're in. I hope he's on the other side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, nom said:

I think we need to stop saying that A Valencia under performs.  After several years, we know the rough level he performs at.  He was a super star in HS.  Great.  It’s another jump level in college.  His level didn’t keep going up, enough to stay a super star.  It happens. I’d say, if he wins it, he will have over performed.

I think that’s all fair but for his Senior US Open performance early on where he did really well. What happened to that AV?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, ionel said:

Shouldn't we all want to see the national champ wrestle the second best guy out there?

Also, can we all just agree that Alex is gonna get a bad draw?  Unless he does a bbq (see other thread) he will have to wrestle two or three studs.  :0    ;_; 

Jesus Christ, man, let it go.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@BigTimeFan -He had a hot day perhaps?  Lady Luck had some percentages fall his way?  I’m making stuff up.  But we see flashes from some folks that don’t sustain.  Doesn’t mean they are at that higher level.  Just had a great day.

Edited by nom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...