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Will Anthony Valencia win 165?

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17 minutes ago, nom said:

@BigTimeFan -He had a hot day perhaps?  Lady Luck had some percentages fall his way?  I’m making stuff up.  But we see flashes from some folks that don’t sustain.  Doesn’t mean they are at that higher level.  Just had a great day.

Yeah. I agree. He had a few good performances and it didn’t stick. 

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1 hour ago, ionel said:

Shouldn't we all want to see the national champ wrestle the second best guy out there?

Also, can we all just agree that Alex is gonna get a bad draw?  Unless he does a bbq (see other thread) he will have to wrestle two or three studs.  :0    ;_; 

I hear ya.  I mean the regular setup is such a watered down version when you think about it.  We should have all 33 guys wrestle the other 32 guys in the bracket.  Guy with the best record wins.  If there are ties after 32 matches, they should wrestle each other again to determine the winner......................

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7 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

The way you know if Marinelli had a bad draw is whether or not he loses. If he loses, then he had a bad draw. 

Quick question. If you could go back in time and switch Marinelli and Cenzo in that bracket, would you?

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3 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

The way you know if Marinelli had a bad draw is whether or not he loses. If he loses, then he had a bad draw. 

It's funny, considering I don't think a single soul said he had a "bad draw" his 1st NCAA's.  So, 1 bracket allows you sycophants to scream a trend? Brilliant Logic.

The best part is the draw ONLY comes up when knuckleheads(I call my daughter one all the time, so it honestly really isn't meant as a mean insult) like you act like Marinelli is some giant choker.  I mean the guy has AA'd both times.  We can make a GIANT list of top 5 seeds that didn't AA.  So, let's GET OFF the "massively underperforms" narrative and then I would agree that the draw is WAY less relevant.

I mean, he lost to 2 of the top 3 guys last season.  By proxy, he wasn't as good as they were.  Draw or not, I never disputed that part.  Simply put, the draw is ONLY relevant, at least to me, when arguing against a major underperformance or if you called him 7th best in that bracket.  And I say that saying ANYONE who loses to the 1st and 3rd place finishers and took 7th would have the EXACT same argument, regardless of the entire draw they had!

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This weight is going to be a nightmare to seed.  Assuming Marinelli wins Big 10's and Wittlake wins Big 12's, I would imagine that they put those 2 on opposite sides.  Valencia beating Griffith to win Pac 12's gives him a strong argument for the 2 or 3 seed.  Does Mekhi end up being seeded somewhere between 6-8 because he injury defaulted to Wentzel in the dual and injury defaulted again at ACC's?

I could definitely see Marinelli getting another tough draw as the #1 seed again.  He could get someone like Monday in the second round, O'Toole in the quarters, and the winner of Wentzel and Griffith in the semis.  Or even worse, what if they seed Marinelli #1 and Mekhi #8 again? 

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4 hours ago, uncle bernard said:

I included Valencia in my short list of guys who could beat Marinelli back in that thread for the exact reason we saw this weekend. He's always one move away (are you buying that a little more now TBar?).

I don't think he can put together an entire tournament, but on the other hand, 165 is pretty weak after Marinelli and Mekhi (who might not be himself anyway), so maybe he'll only need 1 big upset and he's just better than the rest.

Actually, yes. Never let it be said that I can't be moved from any position I hold if the evidence is persuasive enough. 

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20 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

Quick question. If you could go back in time and switch Marinelli and Cenzo in that bracket, would you?

I deal in reality, not fantasy. They both ended up losing to Lewis anyway, so what's the difference. Second place is still losing. 

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19 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

It's funny, considering I don't think a single soul said he had a "bad draw" his 1st NCAA's.  So, 1 bracket allows you sycophants to scream a trend? Brilliant Logic.

The best part is the draw ONLY comes up when knuckleheads(I call my daughter one all the time, so it honestly really isn't meant as a mean insult) like you act like Marinelli is some giant choker.  I mean the guy has AA'd both times.  We can make a GIANT list of top 5 seeds that didn't AA.  So, let's GET OFF the "massively underperforms" narrative and then I would agree that the draw is WAY less relevant.

I mean, he lost to 2 of the top 3 guys last season.  By proxy, he wasn't as good as they were.  Draw or not, I never disputed that part.  Simply put, the draw is ONLY relevant, at least to me, when arguing against a major underperformance or if you called him 7th best in that bracket.  And I say that saying ANYONE who loses to the 1st and 3rd place finishers and took 7th would have the EXACT same argument, regardless of the entire draw they had!

I bet if he loses people will claim he had a bad draw. 

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7 minutes ago, ShakaAloha said:

This weight is going to be a nightmare to seed.  Assuming Marinelli wins Big 10's and Wittlake wins Big 12's, I would imagine that they put those 2 on opposite sides.  Valencia beating Griffith to win Pac 12's gives him a strong argument for the 2 or 3 seed.  Does Mekhi end up being seeded somewhere between 6-8 because he injury defaulted to Wentzel in the dual and injury defaulted again at ACC's?

I could definitely see Marinelli getting another tough draw as the #1 seed again.  He could get someone like Monday in the second round, O'Toole in the quarters, and the winner of Wentzel and Griffith in the semis.  Or even worse, what if they seed Marinelli #1 and Mekhi #8 again? 

not allowed to say that anymore!  ;)

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4 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

I bet if he loses people will claim he had a bad draw. 

It comes down to when and to who.  I don't believe it will be said one bit if he loses in the Semis or especially the Finals.  It would also depend on what the guy he loses to does.  If the 8th seed goes on to win it all and he loses to him as the 1 seed, it LEGITIMATELY leans towards a strong argument.  And I would also say that about any 1 seed that lost(loses) to an 8 seed that wins it all.  Especially one that did it in as dominating a fashion as Lewis did last season.

 

Can't you guys at least see that part?  Forget the other matches.  But, if the 1 seed loses a close match(the 8 seeds closest match of the tournament) to the 8 seed and that 8 seed goes on to win it all rather convincingly, is that a "normal" draw for the 1 seed?

Edited by MSU158

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16 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

I deal in reality, not fantasy. They both ended up losing to Lewis anyway, so what's the difference. Second place is still losing. 

If Marinelli and Joseph were switched in that bracket and Joseph lost to Mekhi in the quarters, Joseph would have come back and won 3rd.  Joseph was a gamer and the more consistent of the two when it mattered.

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2 minutes ago, ShakaAloha said:

If Marinelli and Joseph were switched in that bracket and Joseph lost to Mekhi in the quarters, Joseph would have come back and won 3rd.  Joseph was a gamer and the more consistent of the two when it mattered.

Based on what data?  Because you can't really make that correlation based on how that bracket ACTUALLY went.  On top of that, you only have the year prior where Marinelli made it to the semis as the 5 seed.  Also, it's not like Joseph worked Chance over the 1st time they wrestled.  

On top of all that, you NEVER had to see Joseph wrestle in the loser's bracket.  How do you KNOW he wouldn't have the "backside slide" that happens to a lot of really good wrestlers?

Simply put, saying someone is a gamer would better fit the argument that Joseph would have beat Lewis at that juncture of the tournament than saying he would have taken 3rd when he NEVER wrestled an NCAA consolation match.......

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Was it a typo or was Sunday's loss by Griffith to Valencia his first ever collegiate loss?  I think Valencia is the guy no one wants to wrestle due to the fact he is such a wild card - maybe that is what makes him fun to watch?  

Unless you are Zeke Jones, that is.  .  .  

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2 minutes ago, JerryCallo said:

Was it a typo or was Sunday's loss by Griffith to Valencia his first ever collegiate loss?  I think Valencia is the guy no one wants to wrestle due to the fact he is such a wild card - maybe that is what makes him fun to watch?  

Unless you are Zeke Jones, that is.  .  .  

He lost twice when he was redshirting, but this was his 1st "official" loss.  Although, with this being a "free" season, I am not sure how everything will be counted down the road......

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1 hour ago, MSU158 said:

Based on what data?  Because you can't really make that correlation based on how that bracket ACTUALLY went.  On top of that, you only have the year prior where Marinelli made it to the semis as the 5 seed.  Also, it's not like Joseph worked Chance over the 1st time they wrestled.  

On top of all that, you NEVER had to see Joseph wrestle in the loser's bracket.  How do you KNOW he wouldn't have the "backside slide" that happens to a lot of really good wrestlers?

Simply put, saying someone is a gamer would better fit the argument that Joseph would have beat Lewis at that juncture of the tournament than saying he would have taken 3rd when he NEVER wrestled an NCAA consolation match.......

Yeah, I guess you're right.  If Joseph and Marinelli switched spots in the bracket and Joseph was upset by Mekhi in the quarters, he would have taken 7th just like Marinelli.  Forget that he was the 2x defending national champ and had beaten Marstellar earlier that year in the Southern Scuffle finals.  The reason we never saw Joseph on the backside at NCAA's was because he was always in the finals.  Which is unlike Marinelli who has proven time and time again that he is a regular season guy that under-performs at NCAA's. 

I really hope that this is the year that Marinelli puts it all together.  I think it's his best opportunity with no IMar, Joseph, or Wick, an injured Mekhi, and Massa up at 174.   

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1 minute ago, ShakaAloha said:

Yeah, I guess you're right.  If Joseph and Marinelli switched spots in the bracket and Joseph was upset by Mekhi in the quarters, he would have taken 7th just like Marinelli.  Forget that he was the 2x defending national champ and had beaten Marstellar earlier that year in the Southern Scuffle finals.  The reason we never saw Joseph on the backside at NCAA's was because he was always in the finals.  Which is unlike Marinelli who has proven time and time again that he is a regular season guy that under-performs at NCAA's. 

I really hope that this is the year that Marinelli puts it all together.  I think it's his best opportunity with no IMar, Joseph, or Wick, an injured Mekhi, and Massa up at 174.   

"Time and again."  He's been to two NCAA championships.  He placed 6th as the 5 seed as a freshman after meaking the semis, which is not an underperformance.  He placed 7th as the 1 seed, which is..  The creative attempts to attack Marinelli are endless.  Yes, Marinelli's 3-1 record against Joseph tells us how lucky he is that Joseph isn't around.

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2 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

"Time and again."  He's been to two NCAA championships.  He placed 6th as the 5 seed as a freshman after meaking the semis, which is not an underperformance.  He placed 7th as the 1 seed, which is..  The creative attempts to attack Marinelli are endless.  Yes, Marinelli's 3-1 record against Joseph tells us how lucky he is that Joseph isn't around.

I think Marinelli is a great wrestler and yes he beat Joseph 3x.  But two of those wins were in duals.   In a single match, I would take Marinelli against Joseph last year, or any 165 this year.  However, based on his style and injury history, I don't think he has what it takes to win 4 matches in a row against the 32 or 33 best guys in the country. 

I'd be willing to do a sig bet with you on whether Marinelli wins NCAA's this year.  

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1 minute ago, ShakaAloha said:

I think Marinelli is a great wrestler and yes he beat Joseph 3x.  But two of those wins were in duals.   In a single match, I would take Marinelli against Joseph last year, or any 165 this year.  However, based on his style and injury history, I don't think he has what it takes to win 4 matches in a row against the 32 or 33 best guys in the country. 

I'd be willing to do a sig bet with you on whether Marinelli wins NCAA's this year.  

A sig bet?  What is this, 2009?  What's the benefit to me here, I get one guy against a field?

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1 hour ago, MSU158 said:

Based on what data?  Because you can't really make that correlation based on how that bracket ACTUALLY went.  On top of that, you only have the year prior where Marinelli made it to the semis as the 5 seed.  Also, it's not like Joseph worked Chance over the 1st time they wrestled.  

On top of all that, you NEVER had to see Joseph wrestle in the loser's bracket.  How do you KNOW he wouldn't have the "backside slide" that happens to a lot of really good wrestlers?

Simply put, saying someone is a gamer would better fit the argument that Joseph would have beat Lewis at that juncture of the tournament than saying he would have taken 3rd when he NEVER wrestled an NCAA consolation match.......

Cenzo takes losses, but he shows up at NCAAs. Marinelli a the opposite. 

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22 minutes ago, ShakaAloha said:

Yeah, I guess you're right.  If Joseph and Marinelli switched spots in the bracket and Joseph was upset by Mekhi in the quarters, he would have taken 7th just like Marinelli.  Forget that he was the 2x defending national champ and had beaten Marstellar earlier that year in the Southern Scuffle finals.  The reason we never saw Joseph on the backside at NCAA's was because he was always in the finals.  Which is unlike Marinelli who has proven time and time again that he is a regular season guy that under-performs at NCAA's. 

I really hope that this is the year that Marinelli puts it all together.  I think it's his best opportunity with no IMar, Joseph, or Wick, an injured Mekhi, and Massa up at 174.   

But Joseph beat Marstellar during the regular season, so that win doesn't count, right?

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6 minutes ago, ShakaAloha said:

This

So what place do you have to finish to "show up" at NCAA's?  Since taking 6th and 7th, respectively in the ONLY 2 tournaments he has wrestled is not "showing up"  what would not placing at all be?

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