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Housebuye

Will Anthony Valencia win 165?

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1 minute ago, MSU158 said:

So what place do you have to finish to "show up" at NCAA's?  Since taking 6th and 7th, respectively in the ONLY 2 tournaments he has wrestled is not "showing up"  what would not placing at all be?

As the #1 seed in 2019, he should have taken 3rd at worst.  What is the excuse going to be if he is seeded #1 for the third year in a row and fails to make the finals again?

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2 minutes ago, ShakaAloha said:

As the #1 seed in 2019, he should have taken 3rd at worst.  What is the excuse going to be if he is seeded #1 for the third year in a row and fails to make the finals again?

3rd year in a row?  So, now it is his fault that last season didn't get wrestled?  Disingenuous at best.  Still, I will say this, if Lewis isn't healthy, I don't think there is anyone in that field he isn't a solid favorite over.  I really don't like the Wentzel matchup, but yes I think he should win it.  So, to me, anything less than 3rd would be a serious underperformance.  But, I don't want to go higher than that, because even guys like Myles Martin can lose at NCAA's and he was more dominant that season than Marinelli has ever been.

 

Is that at least fair?

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5 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

3rd year in a row?  So, now it is his fault that last season didn't get wrestled?  Disingenuous at best.  Still, I will say this, if Lewis isn't healthy, I don't think there is anyone in that field he isn't a solid favorite over.  I really don't like the Wentzel matchup, but yes I think he should win it.  So, to me, anything less than 3rd would be a serious underperformance.  But, I don't want to go higher than that, because even guys like Myles Martin can lose at NCAA's and he was more dominant that season than Marinelli has ever been.

 

Is that at least fair?

I tried to tell this to Vak earlier.  I think that Marinelli is a great wrestler and I would favor him over anyone in college a single match setting, but his style and bad knee are not conducive to making a championship run through the NCAA tournament with the best 33 guys at 165.  

 

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1 minute ago, ShakaAloha said:

I tried to tell this to Vak earlier.  I think that Marinelli is a great wrestler and I would favor him over anyone in college a single match setting, but his style and bad knee are not conducive to making a championship run through the NCAA tournament with the best 33 guys at 165.  

 

His style is fine and I really don't think his knee has been an issue other than maybe a bit as a freshman.  It  just is REALLY hard to win NCAA's.  Ask Dan Gable, Greg Jones or pretty much anyone not name Sanderson, Smith, Dake or Stieber.  Still, I am confident Alex wins it before his career is over!

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Just now, MSU158 said:

His style is fine and I really don't think his knee has been an issue other than maybe a bit as a freshman.  It  just is REALLY hard to win NCAA's.  Ask Dan Gable, Greg Jones or pretty much anyone not name Sanderson, Smith, Dake or Stieber.  Still, I am confident Alex wins it before his career is over!

I get your point (and agree with you) about NCAA's being hard to win.  

Dan Gable (2x champ) and Greg Jones (3x champ) got over the hump several times each.  Not seeing how they correlate to Marinelli who has never made a final, let alone won a championship.  

I don't think Marinelli wins a title before his career is over.  I guess we will have to respectfully disagree, and see who ends up being right over the next 2 years.

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Many posters, not just Iowa fans, stated as soon as the brackets came out, that Marinelli's draw was incredibly tough for a 1 seed. It is not revisionists claiming that is was tough after he lost. Comparing his draw to Joseph's, The Bull's draw was objectively tougher and it is not really close. That said, Marinelli seems to struggle stylistically with some guys and he is bound to run in to one or two of them blocking his path to the finals no matter the draw.

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1 minute ago, ShakaAloha said:

I get your point (and agree with you) about NCAA's being hard to win.  

Dan Gable (2x champ) and Greg Jones (3x champ) got over the hump several times each.  Not seeing how they correlate to Marinelli who has never made a final, let alone won a championship.  

I don't think Marinelli wins a title before his career is over.  I guess we will have to respectfully disagree, and see who ends up being right over the next 2 years.

I was just pointing out that even guys like Gable and Jones can lose at NCAA's and Alex has yet to do anything, regular season included, to compare him to those guys.

I am fine with waiting to see where he finishes and revisiting this after the end of next season.  Have a good one!

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37 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

3rd year in a row?  So, now it is his fault that last season didn't get wrestled?  Disingenuous at best.  Still, I will say this, if Lewis isn't healthy, I don't think there is anyone in that field he isn't a solid favorite over.  I really don't like the Wentzel matchup, but yes I think he should win it.  So, to me, anything less than 3rd would be a serious underperformance.  But, I don't want to go higher than that, because even guys like Myles Martin can lose at NCAA's and he was more dominant that season than Marinelli has ever been.

 

Is that at least fair?

 Marinelli is absolutely a favorite in every individual matchup by a fair margin, besides a healthy Mekhi 

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If he solved his gas tank issue then he has a punchers chance but he needs a break or two. I took Lewis to win it all but if Lewis can't go I am taking the Bull. If the Bull gets upset, then Valencia could pull it off.

Edited by Welcome1

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I think Marinelli is a great wrestler and yes he beat Joseph 3x.  But two of those wins were in duals.   In a single match, I would take Marinelli against Joseph last year, or any 165 this year.  However, based on his style and injury history, I don't think he has what it takes to win 4 matches in a row against the 32 or 33 best guys in the country. 
I'd be willing to do a sig bet with you on whether Marinelli wins NCAA's this year.  
Marinelli beat Joseph in the finals of the Big 10 tournament two years in a row.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

I love when my argument is based on basic factual errors.

Well some folks base their arguments on basic factless errors ... so you've got a leg up on them folks.  :)

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54 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

Marinelli beat Joseph in the finals of the Big 10 tournament two years in a row.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

Don't try to destroy the narrative with facts!

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4 hours ago, ShakaAloha said:

As the #1 seed in 2019, he should have taken 3rd at worst.  What is the excuse going to be if he is seeded #1 for the third year in a row and fails to make the finals again?

So, you think that these athletes losing a 2020 national tournament, and 500,000 Americans losing their lives,  is good fodder for your message board humor?  Sick.

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4 hours ago, Crotalus said:

Many posters, not just Iowa fans, stated as soon as the brackets came out, that Marinelli's draw was incredibly tough for a 1 seed. It is not revisionists claiming that is was tough after he lost. Comparing his draw to Joseph's, The Bull's draw was objectively tougher and it is not really close. That said, Marinelli seems to struggle stylistically with some guys and he is bound to run in to one or two of them blocking his path to the finals no matter the draw.

This. I said before the tournament that Lewis, Marsteller, and Wick were the 3 worst style match ups for him in the bracket and all 3 were on his side. Lewis and Wick had already beaten him before and Marsteller's underhooks and stature make Marinelli's post-based offense very difficult.

There are 3 guys in the bracket this year that I would not like to see him near: Wentzel, O'Toole, and Valencia. Each presents specific style problems for him.

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22 hours ago, BigTimeFan said:

Yeah. I agree. He had a few good performances and it didn’t stick. 

His style is tailored made for freestyle but not so much folk where mat wrestling and stamina are more important than explosiveness.  See Echemendia

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12 minutes ago, Cradle1 said:

His style is tailored made for freestyle but not so much folk where mat wrestling and stamina are more important than explosiveness.  See Echemendia

He is so terrible on bottom. That is the primary reason imo. I never got good enough to understand this, but doesn’t it seem like bottom issues make no sense? I get it for Echemedia, but how is Anthony still so bad? Same logic applies to Micah Jordan. Makes no sense. It isn’t the most technical position, right? There are a handful of basics and a lot of timing, but you know Anthony gets timing. 

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7 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

He is so terrible on bottom. That is the primary reason imo. I never got good enough to understand this, but doesn’t it seem like bottom issues make no sense? I get it for Echemedia, but how is Anthony still so bad? Same logic applies to Micah Jordan. Makes no sense. It isn’t the most technical position, right? There are a handful of basics and a lot of timing, but you know Anthony gets timing. 

Toughness. I don’t care how technical you are on bottom, most DI wrestlers are even more technical on top. Sort of Like Daniel using the crane technique only to have Chozen stop it with ease. Hell, even Tsirtsis’s sit out series is probably the best bottom technique I have seen. But, you see so very few be able to duplicate it with the same level of success. You simply have to have the toughness to go with it. 
 

The best recent example I can come up with was from the Kolat documentary. The use of the cattle prod definitely got to many, but it created a mental and physical toughness in Kolat that nothing else could. It was a very extreme example, but the main part of it was very telling. 
 

At the DI level the “fight” on bottom is just as important on bottom, often more so, than the technique. Watch most guys on bottom that have trouble and you just don’t see the “fish out of water” desperation that most successful bottom wrestlers nearly always show. 

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On 3/2/2021 at 5:37 AM, Housebuye said:

Ok hear me out. I know he consistently underperforms, especially at NCAAs. 
  

He soundly beat formerly #3 this weekend in what I saw as a fairly big upset. 
 

I would have to disagree that he beat Griffith soundly.  He scored six (of his 7) points solely because Griffith foolishly attempted to step over Valencia when Valencia had a whizzer in.   That is why Valencia got the six points that led to Griffith's loss.   I seriously doubt Griffith will ever make that foolish mistake again.  Did Valencia win that match?  Absolutely.  Did Valencia win it because of something he did...........kind of to some extent.........but mostly because Griffith made a bone-headed move.

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25 minutes ago, Bronco said:

I would have to disagree that he beat Griffith soundly.  He scored six (of his 7) points solely because Griffith foolishly attempted to step over Valencia when Valencia had a whizzer in.   That is why Valencia got the six points that led to Griffith's loss.   I seriously doubt Griffith will ever make that foolish mistake again.  Did Valencia win that match?  Absolutely.  Did Valencia win it because of something he did...........kind of to some extent.........but mostly because Griffith made a bone-headed move.

All of that is true.  BUT, Griffith scored 1 point that entire match.  So, even with the immediate urgency to come back he didn't score an offensive point.  To me, that is quite telling about where they are both at level wise.  Take, for instance, the Andonian/O'Connor match.  Andonian hit a big 6 point move and O'Connor still came back and won 10-8.  Now, I am not saying Griffith should have been able to do the same.  But, I would have a ton more confidence in Griffith winning the rematch if the score ended up 10-5ish instead of 7-1!

Edited by MSU158

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2 hours ago, Bronco said:

I would have to disagree that he beat Griffith soundly.  He scored six (of his 7) points solely because Griffith foolishly attempted to step over Valencia when Valencia had a whizzer in.   That is why Valencia got the six points that led to Griffith's loss.   I seriously doubt Griffith will ever make that foolish mistake again.  Did Valencia win that match?  Absolutely.  Did Valencia win it because of something he did...........kind of to some extent.........but mostly because Griffith made a bone-headed move.

For a 3 V 4 in the country match, that was a sound beating. That’s the worst loss of his career in terms of point spread I’m pretty sure, plus he didn’t score a single offensive point. 
  
Would you pick Griffith in a rematch? Anthony would be a 4:1 favorite if they hit at NCAAs, IMO

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2 hours ago, MSU158 said:

Toughness. I don’t care how technical you are on bottom, most DI wrestlers are even more technical on top. Sort of Like Daniel using the crane technique only to have Chozen stop it with ease. Hell, even Tsirtsis’s sit out series is probably the best bottom technique I have seen. But, you see so very few be able to duplicate it with the same level of success. You simply have to have the toughness to go with it. 
 

The best recent example I can come up with was from the Kolat documentary. The use of the cattle prod definitely got to many, but it created a mental and physical toughness in Kolat that nothing else could. It was a very extreme example, but the main part of it was very telling. 
 

At the DI level the “fight” on bottom is just as important on bottom, often more so, than the technique. Watch most guys on bottom that have trouble and you just don’t see the “fish out of water” desperation that most successful bottom wrestlers nearly always show. 

I keep hearing coaches say this too. 
  
I don’t totally understand it though. How could Micah Jordan be tough enough to go through insanely grueling tOSU workouts and then get turned by a random guy. 

Anthony trained with the best in the country a the OTC. If he wasn’t insanely tough, they wouldn’t allow him in that room, let alone invite him back. 
  
these guys are ridiculously tough, even compared to most wrestlers. They have the discipline, strength, work ethic and drive to win, plus obviously the genetics too. Them just not being tough doesn’t make sense to me

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56 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

I keep hearing coaches say this too. 
  
I don’t totally understand it though. How could Micah Jordan be tough enough to go through insanely grueling tOSU workouts and then get turned by a random guy. 

Anthony trained with the best in the country a the OTC. If he wasn’t insanely tough, they wouldn’t allow him in that room, let alone invite him back. 
  
these guys are ridiculously tough, even compared to most wrestlers. They have the discipline, strength, work ethic and drive to win, plus obviously the genetics too. Them just not being tough doesn’t make sense to me

That is because there is a WAY different level of toughness at the DI level.  That is why state champs usually get DESTROYED  by "room guys" when they first walk into DI rooms.  Some guys adapt to it.  Some guys don't.  Others are talented enough where they can adapt most of their wrestling to still work, but BOTTOM leaves you no wiggle room.  

Elite bottom wrestling either requires a very unique body type(Keddy's insanely large lower body or David Taylor's ridiculous hips) or a kill or be killed mentality.  Often, it requires both. That is why I keep going back to the Kolat cattle prod example.  I mean he was as tough as it comes going into DI.  Still, he was having a very hard time on bottom.  As such, it took him realizing that he has to treat bottom like he was damn near in mortal danger if he didn't get free to get over the DI hump.  

The above is why nearly everyone questions how a freshman is going to respond on bottom.  That is why elite high school wrestlers are getting into those RTC's to practice with DI guys as much as possible now.  You really can't duplicate that feel any other way, except maybe getting some private lessons on the side.

Finally, Micah really wasn't a bad bottom wrestler.  He simply wasn't great.  But, because his neutral wrestling was much closer to elite, his bottom wrestling stood out by comparison.  On top of that, once he wrestled guys that were elite on top(Retherford) or really good guys on top, he looked average to below average.  Thing is those guys made damn near EVERYONE in DI look average or less on bottom!

 

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