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MSU158

All Inclusive "Bad Draw" Thread

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Since we have several threads going referencing the above, I though it best to have it's OWN thread.

As such, I went back the last 30 NCAA's to show how rare it is that an 8 seed(or higher) makes the Finals, let alone wins it.

Here you go:

1990: Steffensmeier 9 seed-took 2nd

1991: None

1992: None

1993: Whipp 11 seed-took 2nd  Special shout out to a fellow MSU Alum!

1994:  Branch 1st and Molnar 2nd.  Both were unseeded and wrestled each other in the Finals!

1995:  None

1996:  None

1997:  None

1998:  Hynek 11 seed-took 2nd

1999:  None

2000: Garland 8 seed-took 2nd  Carl Perry 8-took 1st  Made a hell of a run on par with Lewis and probably better.  Beat Schwab, Angle and Lightner to win it all.  That is the 1,4 and 3 seeds and they finished 2,3,4.

2001:  None

2002:  Rohn 8 seed took 1st Unlike Perry his bracket got blown up and he didn't wrestle a seeded guy until the semis.  He would beat the 4 and 6 seeds to win it all.

2003:  Tirapelle 9 seed took 2nd.  Fronhofer unseeded took 2nd. Rosholt 10 seed took 1st  

2004:  Fulsaas 10 seed took 2nd.

2005:  Johnston 8th seed took 2nd.

2006:  Stith 10 seed took 2nd.

2007:  Backes 9 seed took 2nd.

2008:  Leen 8 seed took 1st.  A lot of his bracket got blown up, but he beat the best 2 on that bracket in Gillespie and Poeta!

2009:  Williams(ODU) 8 seed took 2nd.  Jarrod King 12 seed took 1st  This was the year than an undefeated Lewnes(1seed) went 0-2.  Still, King beat Fay, Reader and Howe to win it all!

2010:  None

2011: Wright 8 seed took 1st.  Wright worked HARD here.  He beat Steinhaus, Honeycutt, Gambrall and Hamlin to win it all.  Honeycutt(1 seed) had a similar "Marinelli bad draw" taking 5th place losing to Bosak on the back side as well.

2012:  Megaludis 10 seed took 2nd.  Hatchett 11 seed took 2nd

2013:  None

2014:  Kindig 11 seed took 2nd.  Dylan Ness 9 seed took 2nd.

2015:  Moisey unseeded took 2nd.  Brewer 13 seed took 1st. Quite possibly the worst seeding job in HISTORY!  Wilps 8 seed took 2nd

2016:  Meredith 14 seed took 2nd  Martin 11 seed took 2nd.

2017:  None

2018:  Ronald Perry 15 seed took 2nd

2019:  Lewis 8 seed took 1st

 

So, out of the 300 brackets in the last 20 wrestled seasons, there were 8 champs seeded 8th or lower!

Edited by MSU158

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19 minutes ago, TobusRex said:

Brewer not only won as a #13 seed he pretty much crushed everybody. Even made Clark look like a bit of a stiff in the finals. He pinned some kid from OSU that had a hex on him up to that point. 

His was a weird case because his seed was so low because he barely wrestled that year. He was a returning AA and only had 1 loss (I think he got mixed and pinned by Earl Hall). He destroyed that bracket.

Which OSU are thinking of, Ohio State or Okie State? He majored Dijulius in his title run, who had pinned him before, but the year before he pulled a huge upset over Jon Morrison who he had never beaten (also out of the 13 seed). He finished 8th that year.

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11 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

His was a weird case because his seed was so low because he barely wrestled that year. He was a returning AA and only had 1 loss (I think he got mixed and pinned by Earl Hall). He destroyed that bracket.

Which OSU are thinking of, Ohio State or Okie State? He majored Dijulius in his title run, who had pinned him before, but the year before he pulled a huge upset over Jon Morrison who he had never beaten (also out of the 13 seed). He finished 8th that year.

Think maybe it was Kaid Brock who pinned Brewer. Then promptly blew his knee out. :-(

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47 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

Since we have several threads going referencing the above, I though it best to have it's OWN thread.

As such, I went back the last 30 NCAA's to show how rare it is that an 8 seed(or higher) makes the Finals, let alone wins it.

Here you go:

1990: Steffensmeier 9 seed-took 2nd

1991: None

1992: None

1993: Whipp 11 seed-took 2nd  Special shout out to a fellow MSU Alum!

1994:  Branch 1st and Molnar 2nd.  Both were unseeded and wrestled each other in the Finals!

1995:  None

1996:  None

1997:  None

1998:  Hynek 11 seed-took 2nd

1999:  None

2000: Garland 8 seed-took 2nd  Carl Perry 8-took 1st  Made a hell of a run on par with Lewis and probably better.  Beat Schwab, Angle and Lightner to win it all.  That is the 1,4 and 3 seeds and they finished 2,3,4.

2001:  None

2002:  Rohn 8 seed took 1st Unlike Perry his bracket got blown up and he didn't wrestle a seeded guy until the semis.  He would beat the 4 and 6 seeds to win it all.

2003:  Tirapelle 9 seed took 2nd.   Rosholt 10 seed took 1st

2004:  Fulsaas 10 seed took 2nd.

2005:  Johnston 8th seed took 2nd.

2006:  Stith 10 seed took 2nd.

2007:  Backes 9 seed took 2nd.

2008:  Leen 8 seed took 1st.  A lot of his bracket got blown up, but he beat the best 2 on that bracket in Gillespie and Poeta!

2009:  Williams(ODU) 8 seed took 2nd.  Jarrod King 12 seed took 1st  This was the year than an undefeated Lewnes(1seed) went 0-2.  Still, King beat Fay, Reader and Howe to win it all!

2010:  None

2011: Wright 8 seed took 1st.  Wright worked HARD here.  He beat Steinhaus, Honeycutt, Gambrall and Hamlin to win it all.  Honeycutt(1 seed) had a similar "Marinelli bad draw" taking 5th place losing to Bosak on the back side as well.

2012:  Megaludis 10 seed took 2nd.  Hatchett 11 seed took 2nd

2013:  None

2014:  Kindig 11 seed took 2nd.  Dylan Ness 9 seed took 2nd.

2015:  Moisey unseeded took 2nd.  Brewer 13 seed took 1st. Quite possibly the worst seeding job in HISTORY!  Wilps 8 seed took 2nd

2016:  Meredith 14 seed took 2nd

2017:  None

2018:  Ronald Perry 15 seed took 2nd

2019:  Lewis 8 seed took 1st

 

So, out of the 300 brackets in the last 20 wrestled seasons, there were 8 champs seeded 8th or lower!

Not near as bad a draw as Andy Daniels ( unseeded) pinning soon to be Olympian and top seed John Azevedo.

Or Mark DiGirolamo (unseeded) winning it in 1976 over 3rd sees Johnnie Jones by MAJOR.

Pat Neu and Dennis Brighton were both US and met in the finals in 1977!

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3 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

So Marinelli’s loss to the 8 seed is even worse than we thought? 
  
This is great data to support Marinelli is in safe company for underperformance at NCAAs. 

Worse than you?  Probably.  Worse than myself?  Nope.  Right where I thought it was from the beginning.  Just felt like actually doing it based on data vs. a like/dislike for a certain wrestler that wrestles for a certain team........

 

Edited to add: After reading what you typed that can be taken 2 different ways.  Are you saying the draw was actually worse than you thought?  Or are you being "dickish" and twisting the data to say since so many 8 seeds don't make the finals losing to 1 isn't a bad draw, but quite the opposite?

Edited by MSU158

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1 minute ago, MSU158 said:

Worse than you?  Probably.  Worse than myself?  Nope.  Right where I thought it was from the beginning.  Just felt like actually doing it based on data vs. a like/dislike for a certain wrestler that wrestles for a certain team........

I’m a Marinelli fan! He seems like an all around great guy and I root for him. I also think he underperforms around NCAAs. I think making it about his draw, especially considering he lost multiple times (not just to the 8 seed), plus his freshman performance, supports my view. 

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3 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

I’m a Marinelli fan! He seems like an all around great guy and I root for him. I also think he underperforms around NCAAs. I think making it about his draw, especially considering he lost multiple times (not just to the 8 seed), plus his freshman performance, supports my view. 

But, how was his performance as a Freshman indicative of underperformance?  He made the semis as a 5 seed and took 6th, losing to the 2 seed.

Also, I don't say he wasn't the best because of his draw.  I simply say he took 7th because he lost to the guys that took 1st and 3rd.  Now, if I tried to say he was top 3 and only didn't place top 3 because of his draw, you would OWN that argument.  But, that isn't what any of us are doing!

Edited by MSU158

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2 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

But, how was his performance as a Freshman indicative of underperformance?  He made the semis as a 5 seed and took 6th, losing to the 2 seed.

Making the semis isn’t relevant. 
  
He beat the champion 5 weeks before NCAAs. 
  
He was 19-6 in 2018. 3 of those losses were at NCAAs. 
  
He got bonused twice in 2018. They were in back to back matches at the NCAAs, getting pinned by McFadden and majored by Wick. 
  
McFadden had 3 pins all season. One was a rando and one was Wick. 
  
McFadden has I believe 4 pins over ncaa qualifiers over his entire career. Great wrestler, but not a pinner.

 Marinelli underperformed in 2018 too. Just because he underformed even more substantially in 2019, doesn’t negate his poor 2018 performance, relative to his abilities. 

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Just now, Housebuye said:

Making the semis isn’t relevant. 
  
He beat the champion 5 weeks before NCAAs. 
  
He was 19-6 in 2018. 3 of those losses were at NCAAs. 
  
He got bonused twice in 2018. They were in back to back matches at the NCAAs, getting pinned by McFadden and majored by Wick. 
  
McFadden had 3 pins all season. One was a rando and one was Wick. 
  
McFadden has I believe 4 pins over ncaa qualifiers over his entire career. Great wrestler, but not a pinner.

 Marinelli underperformed in 2018 too. Just because he underformed even more substantially in 2019, doesn’t negate his poor 2018 performance, relative to his abilities. 

How isn't making the semis as a 5th seed relevant?  By definition, a 5th seed has to OVERPERFORM to make the semis.  He lost to 2 guys he had never wrestled on the backside.  Wick was a TERRIBLE matchup and they had to come up with a very specific gameplan to BARELY beat him multiple times since.  McFadden was simply a better wrestler that season and was VERY hungry that match.  Now, if you want to say Marinelli has shown to not be so fired up on the backside of the bracket, that I would agree with.  Still, I was NOT picking Alex over McFadden when that match was about to happen.  I just don't see taking 6th as a freshman when you are seed 5th as a remotely strong argument for underperformance.  

 

I still can't stop laughing at your last sentence.  Relative to his abilities?  Could you be more subjective?  That essentially negates everything else you have said.  At that point the only person with less PROVEN abilities was Wick and Wick was absolutely on fire that tournament.  

 

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6 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

Making the semis isn’t relevant. 
  
He beat the champion 5 weeks before NCAAs. 
  
He was 19-6 in 2018. 3 of those losses were at NCAAs. 
  
He got bonused twice in 2018. They were in back to back matches at the NCAAs, getting pinned by McFadden and majored by Wick. 
  
McFadden had 3 pins all season. One was a rando and one was Wick. 
  
McFadden has I believe 4 pins over ncaa qualifiers over his entire career. Great wrestler, but not a pinner.

 Marinelli underperformed in 2018 too. Just because he underformed even more substantially in 2019, doesn’t negate his poor 2018 performance, relative to his abilities. 

Do you remember the McFadden pin? It was a flash pin in a spladle in a tight match. Not exactly a dominant performance.

I can't believe it's so difficult to accept he had a tough draw. As @TBar1977 put it very nicely before the tournament, "His draw is as tough as possible."

Why is this such an issue for you? I don't see anybody saying he should have won that weekend. Just that he got a tough break and wasn't good enough to overcome it.

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2 hours ago, MSU158 said:

 

2000:   Carl Perry 8-took 1st  Made a hell of a run on par with Lewis and probably better.  Beat Schwab, Angle and Lightner to win it all.  That is the 1,4 and 3 seeds and they finished 2,3,4.

 

Can we all just agree that Carl got a bad draw?

Would it be too much to say he got a badder draw than Alex?

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

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1 hour ago, uncle bernard said:

Do you remember the McFadden pin? It was a flash pin in a spladle in a tight match. Not exactly a dominant performance.

I can't believe it's so difficult to accept he had a tough draw. As @TBar1977 put it very nicely before the tournament, "His draw is as tough as possible."

Why is this such an issue for you? I don't see anybody saying he should have won that weekend. Just that he got a tough break and wasn't good enough to overcome it.

It ain't the bad draw that's bad, its the whinin that's bad. 

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The frequency is definitely on the upswing.

For the first 10 years of your data there are 4 making the final with 0 winning. 

In the next 10 it is 13 finalists with 5 of them winning.

In the last 10 years it is 11 and 3.

So while it is 8 out of 300, it is also 8 out of 200.

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17 hours ago, BadgerMon said:

Not near as bad a draw as Andy Daniels ( unseeded) pinning soon to be Olympian and top seed John Azevedo.

Or Mark DiGirolamo (unseeded) winning it in 1976 over 3rd sees Johnnie Jones by MAJOR.

Pat Neu and Dennis Brighton were both US and met in the finals in 1977!

Don't forget one of my favorites - Ken Mallory a D3 Champ  winning 134#s from a #8 seed in 1978. 

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On 3/2/2021 at 8:54 PM, uncle bernard said:

His was a weird case because his seed was so low because he barely wrestled that year. He was a returning AA and only had 1 loss (I think he got mixed and pinned by Earl Hall). He destroyed that bracket.

Which OSU are thinking of, Ohio State or Okie State? He majored Dijulius in his title run, who had pinned him before, but the year before he pulled a huge upset over Jon Morrison who he had never beaten (also out of the 13 seed). He finished 8th that year.

You mentioned the kid, Jon Morrison. He was the one that had the long hex on Brewer, until Brewer pinned him at NCAAs his Jr year.  I was unaware the Brewer had a win over Morrison until the fall at NCAAs. 

Edited by TobusRex

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On 3/2/2021 at 9:07 PM, BadgerMon said:

Think maybe it was Kaid Brock who pinned Brewer. Then promptly blew his knee out. :-(

Naw, when Kaid pinned Brewer it was after Brewer had won an NCAA title, so that would've been Brewer's Sr year. Too bad Kaid never panned out to be as good as hoped. 

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