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Where will S Lee fit in the pantheon of four timers?

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14 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

Can't be a 5 timer. At most he can win this year and next, assuming he chooses to keep wrestling college beyond this year despite it no longer being challenging. 

He said in the Big Ten piece that one of his goals is to lead Iowa to at least two championships. Could this motivate him to come back ?

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I agree but Logan lost to a true freshman as a senior and Spencer is most likely going to bonus everyone he faces his last 2 years in college so I felt that dominance would give him a bump over Logan...looking at results of pat smith I’d probably put him 5th not Stieber 
The true freshman decided that it was in his best interest to redshirt and avoid Stieber.

Let that sink in.

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I love Dake but putting him over Sanderson is just silly.  Dake lost to guys Sanderson would have majored or teched. Sorry but a 4 loss guy isn’t better than 159-0.
No redshirt though.

Remember Paul Jenn?

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18 hours ago, cjc007 said:

Maybe he has higher goals in wrestling like being a multiple world and olympic champion. Just guessing though.


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According to a doc show, his Dad says when he hung the phone committing to Iowa, he looked at him and said I'm going to do three things: win four NCAA titles, at least 2 team titles, and an Olympic Gold Medal.... I want to leave Iowa back where it's supposed to be.

Edited by Lurker

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7 minutes ago, cjc007 said:

No redshirt though.

Remember Paul Jenn?

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Okay 4 losses in 4 years vs 1 loss in 5 years.  Same opinion.  

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Let's keep in mind that for official record purposes redhirt year matches don't count. Who knows what wrestlers are working on technique wise in those redshirt years, or what instructions their coaches gave them. Just not the same thing. 

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10 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

Agree. Lee lost to the wrestler from Oregon, to SeaBass 2x, got pinned vs Okie St., and lost to Nato. Even if we hand him the NCAA for this year, it is watered down and the weight has basically cleared out so thinly that people thought Ragusin could make this year's final. 

He still can, as can pretty much anyone ranked about 2-18.

I don’t think 125 or NCAA’s for that matter are “watered down” in general, but I guess you can’t really argue that it’s not the “most” watered down since I don’t think entire conferences have pulled out before.

But as for 125, I think the parity after Lee is more just evidence that it’s deep, not that it’s weak.   Schroder was seeded 5th at NCAA’s last year but was seeded 7th this year in the B10.  I think Foley was the only actual returning AA not counting last year, and he was seeded 5th.  You also have Camacho who beat Mueller last year (who dominated Flo’s #1 157 lber Rivera), and Latona who beat Camacho.

I think this year’s 125 bracket will be looked at a lot more favorably in a couple years, with guys like Latona, Camacho, Ragusin, Howard, McKee, DeAugustino, Barnett, etc still having 3+ more years of eligibiliy (not that they’d stay at 125 for all of those years).  But depending on who all stays at 125, if Glory and Vito wrestle 125 next year it could be one of the toughest brackets in awhile.

I mean I’d say 125 is better than 133 right now.   After the top 5 or so it’s a bit of a dropoff especially without Alvarez.   Not to mention the prohibitive favorite lost to the guy Lee beat.  

 

Edited by 1032004

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There are some scenarios where Lee pushes to number of three or even shares number two with Dake. It would require him coming back next year and a few other things which I see as more than possible  

1. No one goes the distance with him this year and he wins the Hodge. He wins the 

2.  No one or almost no one goes the distance with him next year and he wins the Hodge again. 

OR

3. Fix or Suriano goes down and challenges, Lee wins, wins the Hodge and almost no one goes the distance. 

If this kind of things happen, Lee’s career would look like: 

1. Three time Hodge winner, Cael being the only other. 


2. Three undefeated seasons. This one is a little unfair because he would have wrestled five seasons but give me some slack here. 

3. Two seasons with no one going the distance (number 2) OR almost that and defeating a past national champ to win. This one is a little flimsy too because he at best he be 11-0 this year and was 18-0 last year with no NCAA tournament. 


4. Defeated at least two NCAA champs (Suriano and Tomo). 

Let’s compare Dake and Lee  

1. Dake ended his career with 77 consecutive wins, Lee went 18-0 and this year let’s guess 11-0 and if he returns next year at most 35-0. That’s 63 consecutive.

2. Dake was a one time Hodge winner but won it by moving up a weight and taking out the returning Hodge winner. That kind of thing has happened only a few times ever. Schultz taking out Banach. Who else? Meanwhile Lee’s Hodge is weaker because he didn’t get to actually win nationals. If he wins it again this year it would be at best a quantity over quality thing.

3. Dake beat a future NCAA champ in the finals in his sophomore (Molinari) and junior year (St John) and then Taylor his senior year. 

4. Dake won four in four different weights and in his final three NCAAs only six points were scored on him in matches that went the distance and four of those were Taylor’s.

Tough to put Lee ahead of Dake and not easy to even put him alongside him.


 

 

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1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

He still can, as can pretty much anyone ranked about 2-18.

I don’t think 125 or NCAA’s for that matter are “watered down” in general, but I guess you can’t really argue that it’s not the “most” watered down since I don’t think entire conferences have pulled out before.

But as for 125, I think the parity after Lee is more just evidence that it’s deep, not that it’s weak.   Schroder was seeded 5th at NCAA’s last year but was seeded 7th this year in the B10.  I think Foley was the only actual returning AA not counting last year, and he was seeded 5th.  You also have Camacho who beat Mueller last year (who dominated Flo’s #1 157 lber Rivera), and Latona who beat Camacho.

I think this year’s 125 bracket will be looked at a lot more favorably in a couple years, with guys like Latona, Camacho, Ragusin, Howard, McKee, DeAugustino, Barnett, etc still having 3+ more years of eligibiliy (not that they’d stay at 125 for all of those years).  But depending on who all stays at 125, if Glory and Vito wrestle 125 next year it could be one of the toughest brackets in awhile.

I mean I’d say 125 is better than 133 right now.   After the top 5 or so it’s a bit of a dropoff especially without Alvarez.   Not to mention the prohibitive favorite lost to the guy Lee beat.  

 

 

It is hard for me to get past the idea that guys like Glory, Suriano and Arujau are all wrestling at 125 right now but none of them are doing so at this upcoming NCAA tourney, and that Daton Fix will wrestle at 125 Trials and he too is not wrestling 125 at the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Right now you can make a case that at least 3 of those 4 guys are basically world class wrestlers with NCAA eligibility and Spencer doesn't have to face a one of them.

Now, Spencer maybe beats them all, but they are good enough to take away the virtual certainty of him winning it. If they all wrestled this year at 125, he'd have at least one Big10 match he could possibly lose, then he'd have at least two matches at NCAAs he could potentially lose. Not that he would, but he could. 

Edited by TBar1977

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6 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

 

It is hard for me top get past the idea that guys like Glory, Suriano and Arujau are all wrestling at b125 right now but none of them are doing so at this upcoming NCAA tourney, and that Daton Fix will wrestle at 125 Trials and he too is not wrestling 125 at the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Right now you can make a case that at least 3 of those 4 guys are basically world class wrestlers with NCAA eligibility and Spencer doesn't have to face a one of them.

Now, Spencer maybe beats them all, but they are good enough to take away the virtual certainty of him winning it. If they all wrestled this year at 125, he'd have at least one Big10 match he could possibly lose, then he'd have at least two matches at NCAAs he could potentially lose. Not that he would, but he could. 

Yeah 125 would definitely be better with any of those guys.  I just don’t think it’s “bad” as it is.

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1 hour ago, BigTimeFan said:

Let’s compare Dake and Lee  

1. Dake ended his career with 77 consecutive wins, Lee went 18-0 and this year let’s guess 11-0 and if he returns next year at most 35-0. That’s 63 consecutive.

2. Dake was a one time Hodge winner but won it by moving up a weight and taking out the returning Hodge winner. That kind of thing has happened only a few times ever. Schultz taking out Banach. Who else? Meanwhile Lee’s Hodge is weaker because he didn’t get to actually win nationals. If he wins it again this year it would be at best a quantity over quality thing.

3. Dake beat a future NCAA champ in the finals in his sophomore (Molinari) and junior year (St John) and then Taylor his senior year. 

4. Dake won four in four different weights and in his final three NCAAs only six points were scored on him in matches that went the distance and four of those were Taylor’s.

Tough to put Lee ahead of Dake and not easy to even put him alongside him.

This is probably the best assessment of Lee v. Dake in this entire thread. 

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1 hour ago, cjc007 said:

The true freshman decided that it was in his best interest to redshirt and avoid Stieber.

Let that sink in.

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I’m pretty sure that was a team decision that had nothing to do with Stieber.  Other studs Megaludis, Nolf, Nickal and Nevills all redshirted that season as well.

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1 hour ago, BigTimeFan said:


Let’s compare Dake and Lee  

1. Dake ended his career with 77 consecutive wins, Lee went 18-0 and this year let’s guess 11-0 and if he returns next year at most 35-0. That’s 63 consecutive.

2. Dake was a one time Hodge winner but won it by moving up a weight and taking out the returning Hodge winner. That kind of thing has happened only a few times ever. Schultz taking out Banach. Who else? Meanwhile Lee’s Hodge is weaker because he didn’t get to actually win nationals. If he wins it again this year it would be at best a quantity over quality thing.

3. Dake beat a future NCAA champ in the finals in his sophomore (Molinari) and junior year (St John) and then Taylor his senior year. 

4. Dake won four in four different weights and in his final three NCAAs only six points were scored on him in matches that went the distance and four of those were Taylor’s.

Tough to put Lee ahead of Dake and not easy to even put him alongside him.

High quality content here folks!

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Could he succeed where Ed Peery failed?

 Ed was going into the Piaa finals about to complete 3 undefeated seasons (in 9th grade he was in a school without wrestling). lost.

Going into the EIWA finals his senior year, he lost, to not get his 3rd title (was he college undefeated at that point?)

Then going into NCAA finals at Pitt, he needed a refs decision to win his 3rd NCAA title 

Edited by RichB

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23 hours ago, NJDan said:

Interesting. I doubt Dake ever gave up back points. I wonder if Stieber ever did.

 

I know he gave up two back points to this guy in a 12-2 win.  I know someone on that team who was at the match at the time and he told me at the time

https://buhuskies.com/sports/wrestling/roster/bryan-smith/1129

 

Dake got thrown to his back by Humphrey - I assume no backs.  

dake-being-thrown-by-humphrey.jpg
 

 

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12 hours ago, BigTimeFan said:

Dake beat a future NCAA champ in the finals in his sophomore (Molinari) and junior year (St John) and then Taylor his senior year. 

Lee pinned a natty champ and beat a future champ up a weight in his freshman year. Dake has a bit of an advantage in optics because he wrestled different weight classes beating guys who would win it once he left the weight class. Unfortunately for Lee thats not really an option as he will likely be a 25 lber the entire time and not give guys he has beaten a chance to win it. 

Its interesting we view the weight classes like this. We would view Zain Retherfords wins over Sorenson of higher quality if Zain bumped to 57, allowing Sorenson to get a title, even tho it didnt actually mean Sorenson was better. 

According to the metrics being used, had Suriano stayed at 125 every year and not won a title because of Spencer, that would have actually hurt Spencer's resume. It doesn't really make sense to me.

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1 hour ago, ScarletKnight said:

 

I know he gave up two back points to this guy in a 12-2 win.  I know someone on that team who was at the match at the time and he told me at the time

https://buhuskies.com/sports/wrestling/roster/bryan-smith/1129

 

Dake got thrown to his back by Humphrey - I assume no backs.  

dake-being-thrown-by-humphrey.jpg
 

 

What? In what event?

Edited by NJDan

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