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jross

2021 NCAA Championship - 197lbs Predictions - WrestleStat

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Fatigue makes cowards of us all.

 

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Thursday Morning Results

 

Championship Pigtail

  • (33) Billy Janzer (RUT) 3-5 Over (32) Logan Andrew (CHAT) 10-6 By Score 8 - 3 Upset Alert

 

Championship Round 1

  • (1) Myles Amine (MICH) 6-0 Over (33) Billy Janzer (RUT) 3-5 By Score 8 - 3
  • (16) Jake Jakobsen (LEH) 7-3 Over (17) Jack Brown (ARMY) 7-2 By Score 6 - 4
  • (9) Noah Adams (WVU) 13-3 Over (24) Ben Smith (CSU) 5-4 By Score 9 - 6
  • (8) Stephen Buchanan (WYO) 11-3 Over (25) JJ Dixon (ORST) 7-4 By Score 13 - 5 MD
  • (5) Jacob Warner (IOWA) 8-2 Over (28) Nick Reenan (NCST) 7-3 By Score 7 - 4
  • (21) Marcus Coleman (ISU) 7-4 Over (12) Lucas Davison (NW) 7-3 By Score 11 - 6 Upset Alert
  • (13) Tanner Sloan (SDSU) 14-2 Over (20) Max Shaw (UNC) 8-4 By Score 8 - 4
  • (4) AJ Ferrari (OKST) 15-1 Over (29) Colin McCracken (KENT) 8-5 By Score 14 - 7
  • (3) Kordell Norfleet (ASU) 9-0 Over (30) Trey Rogers (HOF) 6-3 By Score 11 - 4
  • (14) Greg Bulsak (CLAR) 11-1 Over (19) Thomas Penola (PUR) 10-4 By Score 10 - 6
  • (11) Jay Aiello (UVA) 9-2 Over (22) Chris Kober (CAMP) 6-0 By Score 7 - 5
  • (6) Nino Bonaccorsi (PITT) 9-1 Over (27) Nick Stemmet (STAN) 7-2 By Score 9 - 4
  • (26) Jake Woodley (OU) 9-7 Over (7) Rocky Elam (MIZZ) 11-0 By Score 6 - 5 Upset Alert
  • (10) Cameron Caffey (MSU) 8-4 Over (23) Bryan McLaughlin (DREX) 6-2 By Score 15 - 4 MD
  • (15) Michael Beard (PSU) 6-4 Over (18) Jake Koser (NAVY) 7-3 By Score 8 - 7
  • (2) Eric Schultz (NEB) 10-1 Over (31) Owen Pentz (NDSU) 7-4 By Score 8 - 5


 

Thursday Evening Results

Wrestleback Pigtail

  • (30) Trey Rogers (HOF) 6-3 Over (32) Logan Andrew (CHAT) 10-6 By Score 9 - 8

 

Wrestleback Round 1

  • (33) Billy Janzer (RUT) 3-5 Over (17) Jack Brown (ARMY) 7-2 By Score 5 - 4 Upset Alert
  • (24) Ben Smith (CSU) 5-4 Over (25) JJ Dixon (ORST) 7-4 By Score 8 - 6
  • (12) Lucas Davison (NW) 7-3 Over (28) Nick Reenan (NCST) 7-3 By Score 7 - 6
  • (20) Max Shaw (UNC) 8-4 Over (29) Colin McCracken (KENT) 8-5 By Score 7 - 4
  • (19) Thomas Penola (PUR) 10-4 Over (30) Trey Rogers (HOF) 6-3 By Score 9 - 4
  • (27) Nick Stemmet (STAN) 7-2 Over (22) Chris Kober (CAMP) 6-0 By Score 10 - 5 Upset Alert
  • (7) Rocky Elam (MIZZ) 11-0 Over (23) Bryan McLaughlin (DREX) 6-2 By Score 13 - 3 MD
  • (18) Jake Koser (NAVY) 7-3 Over (31) Owen Pentz (NDSU) 7-4 By Score 8 - 5

 

Thursday Night Results

Championship Round 2

  • (1) Myles Amine (MICH) 6-0 Over (16) Jake Jakobsen (LEH) 7-3 By Score 8 - 3
  • (9) Noah Adams (WVU) 13-3 Over (8) Stephen Buchanan (WYO) 11-3 By Score 10 - 6 Upset Alert
  • (5) Jacob Warner (IOWA) 8-2 Over (21) Marcus Coleman (ISU) 7-4 By Score 11 - 3 MD
  • (4) AJ Ferrari (OKST) 15-1 Over (13) Tanner Sloan (SDSU) 14-2 By Score 11 - 3 MD
  • (14) Greg Bulsak (CLAR) 11-1 Over (3) Kordell Norfleet (ASU) 9-0 By Score 12 - 3 MD Upset Alert
  • (6) Nino Bonaccorsi (PITT) 9-1 Over (11) Jay Aiello (UVA) 9-2 By Score 8 - 6
  • (10) Cameron Caffey (MSU) 8-4 Over (26) Jake Woodley (OU) 9-7 By Score 7 - 5
  • (2) Eric Schultz (NEB) 10-1 Over (15) Michael Beard (PSU) 6-4 By Score 8 - 5

 

Friday Morning Results

 

Wrestlebacks Round 2

  • (15) Michael Beard (PSU) 6-4 Over (33) Billy Janzer (RUT) 3-5 By Score 6 - 4
  • (26) Jake Woodley (OU) 9-7 Over (24) Ben Smith (CSU) 5-4 By Score 7 - 4 Upset Alert
  • (11) Jay Aiello (UVA) 9-2 Over (12) Lucas Davison (NW) 7-3 By Score 8 - 5
  • (3) Kordell Norfleet (ASU) 9-0 Over (20) Max Shaw (UNC) 8-4 By Score 11 - 5
  • (13) Tanner Sloan (SDSU) 14-2 Over (19) Thomas Penola (PUR) 10-4 By Score 7 - 5
  • (21) Marcus Coleman (ISU) 7-4 Over (27) Nick Stemmet (STAN) 7-2 By Score 12 - 6
  • (7) Rocky Elam (MIZZ) 11-0 Over (8) Stephen Buchanan (WYO) 11-3 By Score 8 - 5
  • (16) Jake Jakobsen (LEH) 7-3 Over (18) Jake Koser (NAVY) 7-3 By Score 7 - 6

 

Wrestlebacks Round 3

  • (26) Jake Woodley (OU) 9-7 Over (15) Michael Beard (PSU) 6-4 By Score 6 - 5 Upset Alert
  • (3) Kordell Norfleet (ASU) 9-0 Over (11) Jay Aiello (UVA) 9-2 By Score 10 - 8
  • (21) Marcus Coleman (ISU) 7-4 Over (13) Tanner Sloan (SDSU) 14-2 By Score 12 - 5 Upset Alert
  • (7) Rocky Elam (MIZZ) 11-0 Over (16) Jake Jakobsen (LEH) 7-3 By Score 6 - 5

 

Championship Round 3

  • (1) Myles Amine (MICH) 6-0 Over (9) Noah Adams (WVU) 13-3 By Score 7 - 5
  • (5) Jacob Warner (IOWA) 8-2 Over (4) AJ Ferrari (OKST) 15-1 By Score 5 - 4 Upset Alert
  • (14) Greg Bulsak (CLAR) 11-1 Over (6) Nino Bonaccorsi (PITT) 9-1 By Score 7 - 4 Upset Alert
  • (10) Cameron Caffey (MSU) 8-4 Over (2) Eric Schultz (NEB) 10-1 By Score 6 - 5 Upset Alert

 

 

Friday Evening Results

 

Wrestlebacks Round 4 - Blood Round

  • (4) AJ Ferrari (OKST) 15-1 Over (26) Jake Woodley (OU) 9-7 By Score 7 - 3
  • (9) Noah Adams (WVU) 13-3 Over (3) Kordell Norfleet (ASU) 9-0 By Score 8 - 5 Upset Alert
  • (2) Eric Schultz (NEB) 10-1 Over (21) Marcus Coleman (ISU) 7-4 By Score 8 - 4
  • (6) Nino Bonaccorsi (PITT) 9-1 Over (7) Rocky Elam (MIZZ) 11-0 By Score 8 - 6

 

Wrestlebacks Round 5 - Quarters

  • (4) AJ Ferrari (OKST) 15-1 Over (9) Noah Adams (WVU) 13-3 By Score 7 - 4
  • (6) Nino Bonaccorsi (PITT) 9-1 Over (2) Eric Schultz (NEB) 10-1 By Score 6 - 5 Upset Alert

 

 

Friday Night Results

Championship Rd 4 - Semifinals

  • (1) Myles Amine (MICH) 6-0 Over (5) Jacob Warner (IOWA) 8-2 By Score 6 - 5
  • (14) Greg Bulsak (CLAR) 11-1 Over (10) Cameron Caffey (MSU) 8-4 By Score 9 - 4 Upset Alert

 

 

 

Saturday Morning Results

Wrestleback Rd 6 - Semifinals

  • (4) AJ Ferrari (OKST) 15-1 Over (10) Cameron Caffey (MSU) 8-4 By Score 8 - 4
  • (5) Jacob Warner (IOWA) 8-2 Over (6) Nino Bonaccorsi (PITT) 9-1 By Score 6 - 4

 

AA 7th

  • (9) Noah Adams (WVU) 13-3 Over (2) Eric Schultz (NEB) 10-1 By Score 5 - 4 Upset Alert

 

AA 5th

  • (6) Nino Bonaccorsi (PITT) 9-1 Over (10) Cameron Caffey (MSU) 8-4 By Score 7 - 6

 

AA 3d

  • (5) Jacob Warner (IOWA) 8-2 Over (4) AJ Ferrari (OKST) 15-1 By Score 5 - 4 Upset Alert
Edited by jross
updated weight links

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21 minutes ago, ionel said:

Ok, now we know the algorithm is flawed, Warner isn't beating Focus by exactly the same score twice.

....and Eric Shultz isn't finishing 8th 

Edited by Coachp

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1 hour ago, ionel said:

If he's gonna beat him twice it'll be a bigger score 2nd time.

btw: your cap lock is stuck

More than likely a Freshman will gain a little ground every time (assuming he's competently coached and not already plateau'd). So if Warner beats Ferrari the first time, don't be surprised if Warner loses the next match to Ferrari by a by a little.  A lot depends on coaching, of course, and whether Ferrari's coaches work with him to counter Warner's strengths.

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31 minutes ago, ShakaAloha said:

I was thinking the same thing

 

2 hours ago, ionel said:

Ok, now we know the algorithm is flawed, Warner isn't beating Focus by exactly the same score twice.


*Disclaimer* All tourney results are determined based on pre-tourney results.  If I had a way to update the raw data... or to access to the wrestlestat algorithms... I could make this dynamic based on the live tourney results.  I really think what I'm doing here would be a nice wrestlestat.com built-in capability... maybe it exists... i looked around on the surface... am not a member... 

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4 hours ago, jross said:

 


*Disclaimer* All tourney results are determined based on pre-tourney results.  If I had a way to update the raw data... or to access to the wrestlestat algorithms... I could make this dynamic based on the live tourney results.  I really think what I'm doing here would be a nice wrestlestat.com built-in capability... maybe it exists... i looked around on the surface... am not a member... 

I could actually do this, wouldn't be very hard. It'd be a special circumstance though for these simulations, which I think are awesome!

I'll add it to my list for this offseason. Appreciate the feedback!

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@andegre The website UI uplift is nice!  I do not want to imagine how much work goes into the data collection... it is impressive... a labor of love.  Thank you for making this information available.  A question about the algorithms... what is the thinking behind the decision not to predict pins?  Is it a technical consideration or more functional?

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Updated Championship Predictions...

Quarters

  • (1) Myles Amine (MICH) 8-0 Over (8) Stephen Buchanan (WYO) 13-3 By Score 8 - 4
  • (5) Jacob Warner (IOWA) 10-2 Over (4) AJ Ferrari (OKST) 17-1 By Score 5 - 4 Upset Alert
  • (6) Nino Bonaccorsi (PITT) 11-1 Over (3) Kordell Norfleet (ASU) 11-0 By Score 7 - 6 Upset Alert
  • (15) Michael Beard (PSU) 8-4 Over (26) Jake Woodley (OU) 11-7 By Score 7 - 6

Semis

  • (1) Myles Amine (MICH) 8-0 Over (5) Jacob Warner (IOWA) 10-2 By Score 6 - 5
  • (6) Nino Bonaccorsi (PITT) 11-1 Over (15) Michael Beard (PSU) 8-4 By Score 10 - 4

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