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VakAttack

So that team score going to be interesting

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Just now, VakAttack said:

 

With Beard's quarter falling apart around him, that's huge.

 

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

And you accuse others of making up their own narratives. Have you no shame, Dr. counselor? Lol.

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Iowa will clinch by tomorrow night.  They've avoided all the big potential upsets (Murin, Warner) and bonused heavily. Penn State had Lee go 0-2 BBQ and while the rest have won, bonus is way below Iowa.  Kerk is going to lose next round to Steveson.  Good chance Berge loses next round too.

Penn State's max score is already 55 below Iowa's.

Missouri is the only real threat to Iowa at this point.

Edited by Jimmy Cinnabon

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12 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Iowa will clinch by tomorrow night.  They've avoided all the big potential upsets (Murin, Warner) and bonused heavily. Penn State had Lee go 0-2 BBQ and while the rest have won, bonus is way below Iowa.  Kerk is going to lose next round to Steveson.  Good chance Berge loses next round too.

Penn State's max score is already 55 below Iowa's.

Missouri is the only real threat to Iowa at this point.

All true, Iowa will win. However, PSU is putting in a pretty good effort here which is something to build on. Love Berge's win over Brands son-in-law, the Punxatawney Kid.

Btw ... PAY YOUR BETS!.

Edited by TBar1977

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26 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Iowa will clinch by tomorrow night.  They've avoided all the big potential upsets (Murin, Warner) and bonused heavily. Penn State had Lee go 0-2 BBQ and while the rest have won, bonus is way below Iowa.  Kerk is going to lose next round to Steveson.  Good chance Berge loses next round too.

Penn State's max score is already 55 below Iowa's.

Missouri is the only real threat to Iowa at this point.

Missouri only has 4 guys left on the top side and 3 of them are 6s facing the 3 seed lol this is even a stretch for your standards 

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15 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

All true, Iowa will win. However, PSU is putting in a pretty good effort here which is something to build on. Love Berge's win over Brands son-in-law, the Punxatawney Kid.

Btw ... PAY YOUR BETS!.

 

28 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Iowa will clinch by tomorrow night.  They've avoided all the big potential upsets (Murin, Warner) and bonused heavily. Penn State had Lee go 0-2 BBQ and while the rest have won, bonus is way below Iowa.  Kerk is going to lose next round to Steveson.  Good chance Berge loses next round too.

Penn State's max score is already 55 below Iowa's.

Missouri is the only real threat to Iowa at this point.

You do realize penn state has more guys seeded to reach the semis (5) then Iowa does (4) and Penn state has 11 bonus wins,  Iowa has 10 

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I think PSU would have liked to have a few more points from Joe Lee, but that's pretty much their only disappointment so I wouldn't write them off yet.   Of course Iowa is lucky Warner & Murin survived those first round matches, and so far it's only been Young that has taken an unexpected loss (by seed, I know everyone could have seen Young/Berge being 3-2 one way or the other a mile away).

But the quarters are huge.  Iowa could certainly lose all of Desanto/Phillippi, Murin/Lewallen, Marinelli/Griffith, Warner/Ferrari and Cassioppi/Schultz, potentially leaving only Lee, Eierman and Kemerer in the winner's bracket.

While PSU very realistically could win 6 of their 7 quarters (RBY, Lee, Berge, Starocci, Brooks, Beard, with Kerk to Gable the only likely loss).   RBY, Lee, Starocci, Brooks and Beard are all somewhat heavy favorites IMO, while Berge/Dellavechia is probably a tossup.   

Could also potentially see a Howard/Teske bloodround match which would be interesting...

Edited by 1032004

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42 minutes ago, Antitroll2828 said:

 

You do realize penn state has more guys seeded to reach the semis (5) then Iowa does (4) and Penn state has 11 bonus wins,  Iowa has 10 

I think there are five Iowa guys, including four number one seeds who had seven bonus wins today, seeded to make the semis.  And Iowa has ten guys going tomorrow, PSU eight.  And it's hard for me to see Iowa falling apart -- even if a couple of the one seeds get upset, I see them battling back hard on the backside; they want this team championship badly. 

But I agree with your point that Penn State is alive and well -- with the bonus points a key indicator.  In addition to Berge rounding into form at just the right time with a gutsy head to head win, I thought that Kerk's performance as well as the good fortune with the 197 draw (did anyone else think that Schultz's efforts to fight off his back were weak?) opened the door at the conclusion of today's competition more than one would have expected.  They gotta run the table and have some kind of injury, Covid positive, or something else really bad happen to Iowa, though.

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8 minutes ago, drag it said:

I think there are five Iowa guys, including four number one seeds who had seven bonus wins today, seeded to make the semis.  And Iowa has ten guys going tomorrow, PSU eight.  And it's hard for me to see Iowa falling apart -- even if a couple of the one seeds get upset, I see them battling back hard on the backside; they want this team championship badly. 

But I agree with your point that Penn State is alive and well -- with the bonus points a key indicator.  In addition to Berge rounding into form at just the right time with a gutsy head to head win, I thought that Kerk's performance as well as the good fortune with the 197 draw (did anyone else think that Schultz's efforts to fight off his back were weak?) opened the door at the conclusion of today's competition more than one would have expected.  They gotta run the table and have some kind of injury, Covid positive, or something else really bad happen to Iowa, though.

No it's just Lee, Desanto, Eierman, and Marinelli seeded to make the semis for Iowa.

The interesting thing is that if PSU "runs the table" much of that could come at the expense of Iowa.  If RBY, Lee, Starocci, Brooks and Beard win it (not likely but certainly within the realm of possibility), that means Desanto, Eierman, Kemerer and Warner didn't and gives them 5 champs to Iowa's 1 or 2.    I think that probably wins it for PSU regardless of what Iowa does on the backside.

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18 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

No it's just Lee, Desanto, Eierman, and Marinelli seeded to make the semis for Iowa.

The interesting thing is that if PSU "runs the table" much of that could come at the expense of Iowa.  If RBY, Lee, Starocci, Brooks and Beard win it (not likely but certainly within the realm of possibility), that means Desanto, Eierman, Kemerer and Warner didn't and gives them 5 champs to Iowa's 1 or 2.    I think that probably wins it for PSU regardless of what Iowa does on the backside.

Kemerer, being the 1 seed, is also seeded to make the semis.

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24 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

No it's just Lee, Desanto, Eierman, and Marinelli seeded to make the semis for Iowa.

The interesting thing is that if PSU "runs the table" much of that could come at the expense of Iowa.  If RBY, Lee, Starocci, Brooks and Beard win it (not likely but certainly within the realm of possibility), that means Desanto, Eierman, Kemerer and Warner didn't and gives them 5 champs to Iowa's 1 or 2.    I think that probably wins it for PSU regardless of what Iowa does on the backside.

Poor Kemerer just gets no respect, he's just too quiet, modest, humble, and reliable.  He's lost one match in two years (to a guy who made the finals every year and who he split matches with) at this weight, he dominated Starocci to win Big Tens, he scored 39 points today, and apparently he's favored to lose to the 8 seed tomorrow and not make the semis despite being the top seed.  

Disagree on PSU probably winning even with the 5 champs based on back of the envelope calculations (everyone feel free to tell me what's wrong with my math, I'm sure I screwed something up).  

Let's give Iowa their seeds other than their hypothetical upset losses to PSU.  That means Iowa wins two (Lee and Bull), has two runners up (Eierman and Kemerer), DeSanto 4th, Warner 5th, Cassioppi 5th, Young 5th.  That's 114.5.  The five PSU champs are 100.  Giving Kerk, a 9th seed, 8th, and Berge, a 12th seed, 4th (more significant PSU overperformance), that's 18 more, for a total of 118.  But I've got Murin and Brands outscoring Howard by more than 3.5 points, and I've got Iowa getting as much bonus as PSU, both very reasonable on the probability scale.  

So with PSU getting everything their way to an extent that even exceeds what I had in mind in using the phrase "running the table" -- including a 15 seed winning a national championship; Lee beating Rivera and Eierman back to back; Starocci completely reversing a decisive loss against as steady as guy as there is; and Kerk and Berge finishing a combined 9 places above their seeds -- they probably still wouldn't win.  

That doesn't mean they can't, but they probably wouldn't, demonstrating how steep the hill is.  

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8 hours ago, Antitroll2828 said:

Missouri only has 4 guys left on the top side and 3 of them are 6s facing the 3 seed lol this is even a stretch for your standards 

For the 4 guys on the top side, if they were to lose in the quarters, Schmitt, Mauller, and O'Toole would all have a winnable matches to AA. (Though I think O'Toole has a decent shot at beating Wentzel in the quarters and Mauller is a slight favorite.) Heart would likely have the winner of Red/Parker to AA, which would be a crap shoot at best.

Of the 6 guys on the back side, only three of them (Jaques, Mocco and Kent) have a path to AA without a major upset, but they will still be underdogs in a match or two. I will be very surprised if any of those 6 are able to AA. I just hope they can win a match or two to keep Mizzou in the running for a podium spot.

I see them with 2-4 All-Americans, which will not keep them anywhere close to Iowa or PSU.

Edited by Crotalus

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8 hours ago, Antitroll2828 said:

 

You do realize penn state has more guys seeded to reach the semis (5) then Iowa does (4) and Penn state has 11 bonus wins,  Iowa has 10 

He's basing it on the current bracket position for the remaining wrestlers, without consideration of seed... Mizzou's max potential is only 8pts behind Iowa's. 

Source:  https://www.pennstatewrestlingclub.org/content/tournament_team_score.php?id=25&type=team

image.png.dfc80af826ae9a2d41d77f630ecfaa6e.png

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7 hours ago, Mr. Poopy butthole said:

Kemerer, being the 1 seed, is also seeded to make the semis.

 

6 hours ago, drag it said:

Poor Kemerer just gets no respect, he's just too quiet, modest, humble, and reliable.  He's lost one match in two years (to a guy who made the finals every year and who he split matches with) at this weight, he dominated Starocci to win Big Tens, he scored 39 points today, and apparently he's favored to lose to the 8 seed tomorrow and not make the semis despite being the top seed.  

Disagree on PSU probably winning even with the 5 champs based on back of the envelope calculations (everyone feel free to tell me what's wrong with my math, I'm sure I screwed something up).  

Let's give Iowa their seeds other than their hypothetical upset losses to PSU.  That means Iowa wins two (Lee and Bull), has two runners up (Eierman and Kemerer), DeSanto 4th, Warner 5th, Cassioppi 5th, Young 5th.  That's 114.5.  The five PSU champs are 100.  Giving Kerk, a 9th seed, 8th, and Berge, a 12th seed, 4th (more significant PSU overperformance), that's 18 more, for a total of 118.  But I've got Murin and Brands outscoring Howard by more than 3.5 points, and I've got Iowa getting as much bonus as PSU, both very reasonable on the probability scale.  

So with PSU getting everything their way to an extent that even exceeds what I had in mind in using the phrase "running the table" -- including a 15 seed winning a national championship; Lee beating Rivera and Eierman back to back; Starocci completely reversing a decisive loss against as steady as guy as there is; and Kerk and Berge finishing a combined 9 places above their seeds -- they probably still wouldn't win.  

That doesn't mean they can't, but they probably wouldn't, demonstrating how steep the hill is.  

Ha sorry I forgot Kemerer in that specific post.  I did include him in my prior post saying he should make the semis, but there’s a real chance it’s only him, Lee and Eierman (and for the record I wasn’t the one that made the original claim about only having 4 guys seeded to make the semis, I just believed it after reading it)

So your scenario only gives Kerk 8th?  He very likely does better than that, even if he doesn’t beat/outplace Cassioppi. 

Edit: But drag it I guess your post proves that Iowa can still win even if PSU has 5 champs, and my “regardless of what Iowa does on the backside” is wrong.  Because in theory Warner could get second and Cassioppi, DeSanto and Young get 3rd and that could win it for Iowa.  In reality, Cassioppi and maybe a little bit for Murin/Brands are their best shots to outplace their seed - but I think assuming DeSanto, Warner and Young (especially Young who’s already taken an upset loss) all place to seed is a stretch, but even if those guys place 1 or 2 spots below what they’re seeded that wouldn’t really be a “massive collapse” IMO.  Same for Eierman and Kemerer potentially getting 2nd.  Edit 2: Same for Marinelli, which is a bit precarious if your numbers assume he wins it also.

Edited by 1032004

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13 minutes ago, wrestlingphish said:

Big difference in how Warner and Schultz handled being put on their back.

The difference was the ref didn’t care about calling a Nebraska high seed pinned but for some reason was waiting to get faxed Jacob Warner’s death certificate before calling the pin in that match 

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2 minutes ago, Antitroll2828 said:

I mean most of the wrestling community agrees with me, especially considering the same ref called Desanto pin immediately 

Ha I thought that was a different ref but I thought it was hilarious how quickly they called that Desanto fall because I knew it would get brought up here. After the Hawks, I root for chaos and seeing people get all riled up so I had to smile.
 

Warner fought, Schultz didn't. That's all I'm sayin.

527F5E54-BD58-41D8-902C-7E871D18E977.jpeg

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24 minutes ago, wrestlingphish said:

Ha I thought that was a different ref but I thought it was hilarious how quickly they called that Desanto fall because I knew it would get brought up here. After the Hawks, I root for chaos and seeing people get all riled up so I had to smile.
 

Warner fought, Schultz didn't. That's all I'm sayin.

527F5E54-BD58-41D8-902C-7E871D18E977.jpeg

I never said Warner didn’t fight because he did but all the fighting shouldn’t have mattered though because he was dead flat 2 different times and the ref missed it 

and yea I agree about Schultz, looks like the went to the Imar school of neck bridging and fighting off your back lol

Edited by Antitroll2828

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1 hour ago, HurricaneWrestling2 said:

Yes, looked like he gave up and conceded the pin.

Yeah, I would have liked to see him kicking and fighting until the mat was slapped, but after his attempted roll through, the guy sunk it so deep he wasn't going anywhere. There was zero chance he was getting out of that. (but again, fight to the end, we're not samurais here)

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1 hour ago, wrestlingphish said:

Ha I thought that was a different ref but I thought it was hilarious how quickly they called that Desanto fall because I knew it would get brought up here. After the Hawks, I root for chaos and seeing people get all riled up so I had to smile.
 

Warner fought, Schultz didn't. That's all I'm sayin.

527F5E54-BD58-41D8-902C-7E871D18E977.jpeg

If Desanto's was a pin, then so was Reenan's...

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bumping this one instead of the non-debt payer's...

PSU's chances definitely took a hit with Howard losing, Berge injury defaulting plus Eierman with another pin and Desanto with the major over Phillippi.

They probably will literally need those other 5 to win it all (plus some more help from other Iowa guys)

Edited by 1032004

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16 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

All true, Iowa will win. However, PSU is putting in a pretty good effort here which is something to build on. Love Berge's win over Brands son-in-law, the Punxatawney Kid.

Btw ... PAY YOUR BETS!.

Good God I'd have expected "betting" to be banned around here after all the high drama between "betters" in the past!

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