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BobDole

Semi-Finals Stats

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Over the last 10 NCAA tournaments

Overall winning percentage
Higher seeds are 148-52 or a 74% winning percentage if you are the higher/better seed.

Higher W/L- Record as the higher seed
Lower W/L- Record as the lower seed

Team W/L % Higher W/L % Lower W/L %
Lock Haven 1-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-0 100.00%
South Dakota State 2-0 100.00% 2-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00%
West Virginia 1-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-0 100.00%
Penn State 40-5 88.89% 33-0 100.00% 7-5 58.33%
Illinois 6-2 75.00% 6-0 100.00% 0-2 0.00%
Stanford 3-1 75.00% 0-1 0.00% 3-0 100.00%
Arizona State 5-2 71.43% 4-1 80.00% 1-1 50.00%
Boise State 2-1 66.67% 2-0 100.00% 0-1 0.00%
Wyoming 2-1 66.67% 1-0 100.00% 1-1 50.00%
Lehigh 7-4 63.64% 2-2 50.00% 5-2 71.43%
Iowa State 3-2 60.00% 2-0 100.00% 1-2 33.33%
Oklahoma State 17-12 58.62% 16-2 88.89% 1-10 9.09%
Edinboro 4-3 57.14% 2-1 66.67% 2-2 50.00%
Oklahoma 4-3 57.14% 2-1 66.67% 2-2 50.00%
Cornell 14-12 53.85% 12-4 75.00% 2-8 20.00%
Iowa 17-15 53.13% 11-2 84.62% 6-13 31.58%
Ohio State 17-16 51.52% 14-6 70.00% 3-10 23.08%
Cal Poly 1-1 50.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-1 50.00%
Maryland 1-1 50.00% 1-1 50.00% 0-0 0.00%
Nebraska 3-3 50.00% 3-0 100.00% 0-3 0.00%
North Carolina State 6-6 50.00% 6-1 85.71% 0-5 0.00%
Pittsburgh 3-3 50.00% 3-1 75.00% 0-2 0.00%
Rider 1-1 50.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-1 50.00%
Minnesota 8-9 47.06% 6-2 75.00% 2-7 22.22%
Rutgers 3-4 42.86% 1-0 100.00% 2-4 33.33%
Michigan 6-9 40.00% 5-3 62.50% 1-6 14.29%
Virginia 2-3 40.00% 1-0 100.00% 1-3 25.00%
Indiana 1-2 33.33% 1-0 100.00% 0-2 0.00%
Kent State 2-4 33.33% 1-1 50.00% 1-3 25.00%
North Carolina 2-4 33.33% 1-0 100.00% 1-4 20.00%
Missouri 6-14 30.00% 6-7 46.15% 0-7 0.00%
Northwestern 3-7 30.00% 1-4 20.00% 2-3 40.00%
Wisconsin 3-7 30.00% 2-2 50.00% 1-5 16.67%
Virginia Tech 2-9 18.18% 0-2 0.00% 2-7 22.22%
American 1-5 16.67% 0-2 0.00% 1-3 25.00%
Northern Iowa 1-5 16.67% 1-1 50.00% 0-4 0.00%
Appalachian State 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Bucknell 0-1 0.00% 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00%
Central Michigan 0-3 0.00% 0-2 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Citadel 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Clarion 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Columbia 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Duke 0-3 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-3 0.00%
Hofstra 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
North Dakota State 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Old Dominion 0-2 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-2 0.00%
Oregon State 0-3 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-3 0.00%
Princeton 0-3 0.00% 0-1 0.00% 0-2 0.00%
Utah Valley 0-3 0.00% 0-1 0.00% 0-2 0.00%

 

Discuss

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I know people will come in here saying penn state is usually the higher seed and so on, but holy s*** 40-5 in the semi finals is insane. That’s a number I wouldn’t have even believed without someone doing the research. Cael prepares his guys for the biggest stage in a way that is basically unparalleled in modern day sports. I can’t even really think of anything to compare it to.

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17 minutes ago, goheels1812 said:

The other way to look at this is that Cael should give Scott Moore a call to figure out the secret to improving his semi final win percentage.

It's Borelli who holds the keys to the kingdom. Undefeated as the lower seed.

All PSU loses came as the lower seed. Clearly need to get better.

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32 minutes ago, BobDole said:

Over the last 10 NCAA tournaments

Overall winning percentage
Higher seeds are 148-52 or a 74% winning percentage if you are the higher/better seed.

Higher W/L- Record as the higher seed
Lower W/L- Record as the lower seed

Team W/L % Higher W/L % Lower W/L %
Lock Haven 1-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-0 100.00%
South Dakota State 2-0 100.00% 2-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00%
West Virginia 1-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-0 100.00%
Penn State 40-5 88.89% 33-0 100.00% 7-5 58.33%
Illinois 6-2 75.00% 6-0 100.00% 0-2 0.00%
Stanford 3-1 75.00% 0-1 0.00% 3-0 100.00%
Arizona State 5-2 71.43% 4-1 80.00% 1-1 50.00%
Boise State 2-1 66.67% 2-0 100.00% 0-1 0.00%
Wyoming 2-1 66.67% 1-0 100.00% 1-1 50.00%
Lehigh 7-4 63.64% 2-2 50.00% 5-2 71.43%
Iowa State 3-2 60.00% 2-0 100.00% 1-2 33.33%
Oklahoma State 17-12 58.62% 16-2 88.89% 1-10 9.09%
Edinboro 4-3 57.14% 2-1 66.67% 2-2 50.00%
Oklahoma 4-3 57.14% 2-1 66.67% 2-2 50.00%
Cornell 14-12 53.85% 12-4 75.00% 2-8 20.00%
Iowa 17-15 53.13% 11-2 84.62% 6-13 31.58%
Ohio State 17-16 51.52% 14-6 70.00% 3-10 23.08%
Cal Poly 1-1 50.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-1 50.00%
Maryland 1-1 50.00% 1-1 50.00% 0-0 0.00%
Nebraska 3-3 50.00% 3-0 100.00% 0-3 0.00%
North Carolina State 6-6 50.00% 6-1 85.71% 0-5 0.00%
Pittsburgh 3-3 50.00% 3-1 75.00% 0-2 0.00%
Rider 1-1 50.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-1 50.00%
Minnesota 8-9 47.06% 6-2 75.00% 2-7 22.22%
Rutgers 3-4 42.86% 1-0 100.00% 2-4 33.33%
Michigan 6-9 40.00% 5-3 62.50% 1-6 14.29%
Virginia 2-3 40.00% 1-0 100.00% 1-3 25.00%
Indiana 1-2 33.33% 1-0 100.00% 0-2 0.00%
Kent State 2-4 33.33% 1-1 50.00% 1-3 25.00%
North Carolina 2-4 33.33% 1-0 100.00% 1-4 20.00%
Missouri 6-14 30.00% 6-7 46.15% 0-7 0.00%
Northwestern 3-7 30.00% 1-4 20.00% 2-3 40.00%
Wisconsin 3-7 30.00% 2-2 50.00% 1-5 16.67%
Virginia Tech 2-9 18.18% 0-2 0.00% 2-7 22.22%
American 1-5 16.67% 0-2 0.00% 1-3 25.00%
Northern Iowa 1-5 16.67% 1-1 50.00% 0-4 0.00%
Appalachian State 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Bucknell 0-1 0.00% 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00%
Central Michigan 0-3 0.00% 0-2 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Citadel 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Clarion 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Columbia 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Duke 0-3 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-3 0.00%
Hofstra 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
North Dakota State 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Old Dominion 0-2 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-2 0.00%
Oregon State 0-3 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-3 0.00%
Princeton 0-3 0.00% 0-1 0.00% 0-2 0.00%
Utah Valley 0-3 0.00% 0-1 0.00% 0-2 0.00%

 

Discuss

Who else has made a semi from Utah valley other than the 2 this year? 

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32 minutes ago, goheels1812 said:

I know people will come in here saying penn state is usually the higher seed and so on, but holy s*** 40-5 in the semi finals is insane. That’s a number I wouldn’t have even believed without someone doing the research. Cael prepares his guys for the biggest stage in a way that is basically unparalleled in modern day sports. I can’t even really think of anything to compare it to.

Seriously.  That is an absurd stat.  Especially when you look at the breakdown.  They are 33-0 as favorites!!!  That's beyond comprehension.  They have yet to be upset even though they are favorites in the semis more than any other 2 teams combined.  And when they are rarely the underdog they win there too, going 7-5 as the underdog.  

Edited by boconnell

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33 minutes ago, goheels1812 said:

I know people will come in here saying penn state is usually the higher seed and so on, but holy s*** 40-5 in the semi finals is insane. That’s a number I wouldn’t have even believed without someone doing the research. Cael prepares his guys for the biggest stage in a way that is basically unparalleled in modern day sports. I can’t even really think of anything to compare it to.

...and PSU's win % for lower seed is better than Iowa's win % as higher seeds!  PSU is an outlier!

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11 minutes ago, nom said:

I will not higher you as my accountant or to advise on data analysis.

 

Oh!  Thanks!  Looked again and I can't read the darn chart.  I read the first set of W/L record as the higher seed % rather than the overall %.  I see my error ;)  This degrades my mental-game belief but PSU is still impressive.  

Edited by jross

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3 hours ago, goheels1812 said:

I know people will come in here saying penn state is usually the higher seed and so on, but holy s*** 40-5 in the semi finals is insane. That’s a number I wouldn’t have even believed without someone doing the research. Cael prepares his guys for the biggest stage in a way that is basically unparalleled in modern day sports. I can’t even really think of anything to compare it to.

Swear to Buddha I read 40-5 and said out loud “40-5 in the semis? That’s insane”

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6 hours ago, BobDole said:

Over the last 10 NCAA tournaments

Overall winning percentage
Higher seeds are 148-52 or a 74% winning percentage if you are the higher/better seed.

Higher W/L- Record as the higher seed
Lower W/L- Record as the lower seed

Team W/L % Higher W/L % Lower W/L %
Lock Haven 1-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-0 100.00%
South Dakota State 2-0 100.00% 2-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00%
West Virginia 1-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-0 100.00%
Penn State 40-5 88.89% 33-0 100.00% 7-5 58.33%
Illinois 6-2 75.00% 6-0 100.00% 0-2 0.00%
Stanford 3-1 75.00% 0-1 0.00% 3-0 100.00%
Arizona State 5-2 71.43% 4-1 80.00% 1-1 50.00%
Boise State 2-1 66.67% 2-0 100.00% 0-1 0.00%
Wyoming 2-1 66.67% 1-0 100.00% 1-1 50.00%
Lehigh 7-4 63.64% 2-2 50.00% 5-2 71.43%
Iowa State 3-2 60.00% 2-0 100.00% 1-2 33.33%
Oklahoma State 17-12 58.62% 16-2 88.89% 1-10 9.09%
Edinboro 4-3 57.14% 2-1 66.67% 2-2 50.00%
Oklahoma 4-3 57.14% 2-1 66.67% 2-2 50.00%
Cornell 14-12 53.85% 12-4 75.00% 2-8 20.00%
Iowa 17-15 53.13% 11-2 84.62% 6-13 31.58%
Ohio State 17-16 51.52% 14-6 70.00% 3-10 23.08%
Cal Poly 1-1 50.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-1 50.00%
Maryland 1-1 50.00% 1-1 50.00% 0-0 0.00%
Nebraska 3-3 50.00% 3-0 100.00% 0-3 0.00%
North Carolina State 6-6 50.00% 6-1 85.71% 0-5 0.00%
Pittsburgh 3-3 50.00% 3-1 75.00% 0-2 0.00%
Rider 1-1 50.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-1 50.00%
Minnesota 8-9 47.06% 6-2 75.00% 2-7 22.22%
Rutgers 3-4 42.86% 1-0 100.00% 2-4 33.33%
Michigan 6-9 40.00% 5-3 62.50% 1-6 14.29%
Virginia 2-3 40.00% 1-0 100.00% 1-3 25.00%
Indiana 1-2 33.33% 1-0 100.00% 0-2 0.00%
Kent State 2-4 33.33% 1-1 50.00% 1-3 25.00%
North Carolina 2-4 33.33% 1-0 100.00% 1-4 20.00%
Missouri 6-14 30.00% 6-7 46.15% 0-7 0.00%
Northwestern 3-7 30.00% 1-4 20.00% 2-3 40.00%
Wisconsin 3-7 30.00% 2-2 50.00% 1-5 16.67%
Virginia Tech 2-9 18.18% 0-2 0.00% 2-7 22.22%
American 1-5 16.67% 0-2 0.00% 1-3 25.00%
Northern Iowa 1-5 16.67% 1-1 50.00% 0-4 0.00%
Appalachian State 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Bucknell 0-1 0.00% 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00%
Central Michigan 0-3 0.00% 0-2 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Citadel 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Clarion 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Columbia 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Duke 0-3 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-3 0.00%
Hofstra 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
North Dakota State 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Old Dominion 0-2 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-2 0.00%
Oregon State 0-3 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-3 0.00%
Princeton 0-3 0.00% 0-1 0.00% 0-2 0.00%
Utah Valley 0-3 0.00% 0-1 0.00% 0-2 0.00%

 

Discuss

This table should be the first thing Cael shows a blue chip recruit...

 

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Past 11 tournaments updated

Just a note for Penn State's losses
2011 133 Andrew Hochstrasser over Andrew Long
2014 125 Nahshon Garrett over Nico Megaludis
2014 141 Logan Stieber over Zain Retherford
2015 133 Cory Clark over Jimmy Guilibon
2019 141 McKenna over Nick Lee
2022 285 Gable Steveson over Greg Kerkvliet

Overall    W/L    
Higher Seed 164-56 74.55%
Lower Seed 56-164 25.45%

W/L is total wins and losses
Higher W/L is when they are the higher/better seed in the match-up
Lower W/L is when they are the worse seed in the match-up

Team W/L % Higher W/L % Lower W/L %
South Dakota State 2-0 100.00% 2-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00%
West Virginia 1-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-0 100.00%
Lock Haven 1-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-0 100.00%
Penn State 45-6 88.24% 38-0 100.00% 7-6 53.85%
Illinois 6-2 75.00% 6-0 100.00% 0-2 0.00%
Stanford 4-2 66.67% 0-1 0.00% 4-1 80.00%
Boise State 2-1 66.67% 2-0 100.00% 0-1 0.00%
Oklahoma State 18-12 60.00% 17-2 89.47% 1-10 9.09%
Iowa State 3-2 60.00% 2-0 100.00% 1-2 33.33%
Lehigh 7-5 58.33% 2-2 50.00% 5-3 62.50%
Oklahoma 4-3 57.14% 2-1 66.67% 2-2 50.00%
Nebraska 4-3 57.14% 4-0 100.00% 0-3 0.00%
Edinboro 4-3 57.14% 2-1 66.67% 2-2 50.00%
Arizona State 6-5 54.55% 5-1 83.33% 1-4 20.00%
Cornell 15-13 53.57% 13-5 72.22% 2-8 20.00%
Iowa 18-16 52.94% 11-2 84.62% 7-14 33.33%
Minnesota 9-9 50.00% 7-2 77.78% 2-7 22.22%
Wyoming 2-2 50.00% 1-1 50.00% 1-1 50.00%
Rider 1-1 50.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-1 50.00%
Maryland 1-1 50.00% 1-1 50.00% 0-0 0.00%
Ohio State 17-18 48.57% 14-6 70.00% 3-12 20.00%
North Carolina State 6-8 42.86% 6-1 85.71% 0-7 0.00%
Rutgers 3-4 42.86% 1-0 100.00% 2-4 33.33%
Pittsburgh 3-4 42.86% 3-2 60.00% 0-2 0.00%
North Carolina 3-4 42.86% 1-0 100.00% 2-4 33.33%
Michigan 8-12 40.00% 7-3 70.00% 1-9 10.00%
Virginia 2-3 40.00% 1-0 100.00% 1-3 25.00%
Princeton 2-3 40.00% 1-1 50.00% 1-2 33.33%
Northwestern 4-7 36.36% 2-4 33.33% 2-3 40.00%
Missouri 7-14 33.33% 7-7 50.00% 0-7 0.00%
Kent State 2-4 33.33% 1-1 50.00% 1-3 25.00%
Indiana 1-2 33.33% 1-0 100.00% 0-2 0.00%
Wisconsin 3-7 30.00% 2-2 50.00% 1-5 16.67%
Cal Poly 1-3 25.00% 0-1 0.00% 1-2 33.33%
Virginia Tech 3-10 23.08% 1-2 33.33% 2-8 20.00%
Northern Iowa 1-5 16.67% 1-1 50.00% 0-4 0.00%
American 1-5 16.67% 0-2 0.00% 1-3 25.00%
Utah Valley 0-3 0.00% 0-1 0.00% 0-2 0.00%
Oregon State 0-3 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-3 0.00%
Old Dominion 0-2 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-2 0.00%
North Dakota State 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Hofstra 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Duke 0-3 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-3 0.00%
Columbia 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Clarion 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Citadel 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Central Michigan 0-3 0.00% 0-2 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Bucknell 0-1 0.00% 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00%
Appalachian State 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Edited by BobDole
Table update

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23 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Crazy.  All the other top programs that have a decent sample size (Iowa, Cornell, Ohio State, Michigan, OK State) have win rates around 50%.  Basically a coin flip.

Meanwhile PSU is approaching 90% win rate in these same matches.

Yes, but they were the higher seed in 33 of 40.

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3 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Does that somehow discredit the stat?  How do you propose adjusting it to make it more fair?

It's not unfair. It's just that their winning percentage is less remarkable when the are favored 83% of the time. That they are so often the #1 or #2 seed is what's impressive.

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