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Eagle26

Your Upset pick to make the team

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5 hours ago, BigTimeFan said:

I’d be surprised by anyone not on your list making the team. At the less than 20% likely and based on your definition of surprise here you go:

57kg - None. I think one of the top six with 100% certainty. 

65kg - McKenna. He’s capable but it’s a gauntlet. 

74kg -Nolf. 10% probably or less but he’s the best of the non-Dake non-JB bunch and rapidly improving. He looked good against Dake in that Dake wasn’t able to score too much. I could see him winning by a point in a very oddball match. 
 

86kg - Zahid. I was personally surprised how close JB VS Taylor was and attributed mainly to Taylor underperforming than JB outperforming expectations. Pair that with the way Zahid took it to Hall I see Zahid as a real possibility if he’s continued to improve and if Taylor never fully recovered. Meanwhile I see Bo as a long shot with all the talent to do it but he didn’t look ready VS Dean. 

97kg - something really weird would have to happen. 

125kg - I don’t see how Parris does anything but lose to Gable. 

That’s pretty much how I see it. I would actually lower Nolf’s chances to like 1%... he’s amazing but he’d have to beat the field, then Dake, then Burroughs in a best of three. I just can’t see that happening. Same situation at 97. 57 is too open that none of the top six would be surprising but I can’t see anyone outside that either. I agree with you at 125 as well. So I think if we are going to have a surprise champ, it will be at 65 or 86. Best contenders would be McKenna or Molinaro (if he’s back in shape) and Zahid, Dean, or Nickal.

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On your criteria:

57 - Richards and Russell both have moments of glory.

65 - McKenna, and also Green on the off chance he somehow shrunk his body and performs like 70kg Green. Dark horse is USA qualifying the weight.

74 - David Carr is a special talent, is coming in hot, is a former Jr. World Champ, and also is a Carr

86 - Zahid if he has his periodization right and peaks here to not crumble under Dean and Taylors heavy hands can win, but Nate Jackson is the dark horse here

97 -  There is one man on Earth in this weight who could beat Cox then Snyder, and he ain't going to be in this tournament

125 - Don't see any

 

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3 hours ago, Eagle26 said:

That’s pretty much how I see it. I would actually lower Nolf’s chances to like 1%... he’s amazing but he’d have to beat the field, then Dake, then Burroughs in a best of three.

Nolf gets the winner of 4/5 and then Dake.

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7 hours ago, Mphillips said:

Nolf gets the winner of 4/5 and then Dake.

Yeah it’s kinda crazy that he only has to win one match to make the finals of the challenge tournament. Not sure if that should qualify as “beating the field” but I still think his chances of Dake and Burroughs are slim to none.

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8 hours ago, Noodler said:

Nickal and McKenna. Surprised to see more people thinking Valencia has a chance over Nickal. 

Valencia beating Nickal wouldn’t surprise me, after all Dean just recently did.  I favor Nickal but think it should be a good match.

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21 hours ago, wrestlingphish said:

Yeah I mean you couldn't really fault him for never letting this board live it down though...

Remember, this time vs Nickal he won't be walking on the mat, literally, 13 minutes after a barn burner with Dean...that he won. 

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20 hours ago, MizzouGrad said:

 

 

The issue I have with Gable is he is small for the weight. Outside of Tervel, we have small heavies competing historically. Look at Geno, the man is 6'6" around 280. Akgul is 6'4" and a full grown man. When Geno wrestled Gwiz, he was like a freshman wrestling a senior. 

Gwiz & Gable are around 6 feet, 265lb and that really limits their offense with bigger guys. And it also leaves them vulnerable when they are going against the 300+lbs like the Iranian & Deng from China.

Also, stop with the 2017 nonsense. Americans love to brag about how we won in 2017, but it was clearly a down year internationally with many guys resting and not competing after the Olympics. Russia and Iran responded and overtook us again. In 2019, we won two bronzes at the Olympic weights while Russia won 4 golds and a bronze. 

At the 6 Olympic weights, we have 2 sure fire weights we should medal: 86 & 97. Every other weight we are an underdog or it will be tight like 74.

I definitely agree with your 57 and 65 assessment of us usually overvaluing who we're sending. I disagree with your Steveson thoughts though. He's wrestling at a higher level right now than Gwiz ever has, and Gwiz didnt have problems scoring on big guys other than the top couple at his peak. Gable would be without a doubt a much clearer medal contender than anyone we'll send at 57 or 65.

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8 minutes ago, maligned said:

I definitely agree with your 57 and 65 assessment of us usually overvaluing who we're sending. I disagree with your Steveson thoughts though. He's wrestling at a higher level right now than Gwiz ever has, and Gwiz didnt have problems scoring on big guys other than the top couple at his peak. Gable would be without a doubt a much clearer medal contender than anyone we'll send at 57 or 65.

Well, I don't disagree with that in comparing Gable to our 57kg and 65kg. Gable was a 2x junior gold medalist, so clearly he has much better credentials than our 57/65 options. 

I really hope we get to see Gable against some elite guys ahead of the Olympics. Gable wrestling some 6'5" 285lb freak is going to take some adjustment.

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45 minutes ago, MizzouGrad said:

Well, I don't disagree with that in comparing Gable to our 57kg and 65kg. Gable was a 2x junior gold medalist, so clearly he has much better credentials than our 57/65 options. 

I really hope we get to see Gable against some elite guys ahead of the Olympics. Gable wrestling some 6'5" 285lb freak is going to take some adjustment.

There is no way that you can realistically say that having 2 Jr World Gold medals amounts to "better credentials" than having a Sn World Silver (Gilman) or a Sn World Bronze (Colon) (Green has both colors) or a 5th Place in an Olympic Games (Molinaro).  That being said I do agree that Gable has a better shot at medaling than any of our guys at 57 & 65.    That is an assessment of where his wrestling ability seems to be compared to the international competition, not based on past FS accomplishments. 

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16 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

There is no way that you can realistically say that having 2 Jr World Gold medals amounts to "better credentials" than having a Sn World Silver (Gilman) or a Sn World Bronze (Colon) (Green has both colors) or a 5th Place in an Olympic Games (Molinaro).  That being said I do agree that Gable has a better shot at medaling than any of our guys at 57 & 65.    That is an assessment of where his wrestling ability seems to be compared to the international competition, not based on past FS accomplishments. 

Gilman's silver looks like Herbert's silver - flukish. And like Herbert, we crowned Gilman as the next American superstar. We annually have guys that overperform expectations because the foreign coaches don't have tape on them. As soon as they compete at the big events, they get analyzed and start losing. 

It's why I don't want Zain or Gilman to rep us. Suriano is basically a no name that could give people trouble with his defensive ability. 

Gable could surprise people since he hasn't been our rep, but he also needs to feel what a true 125kg. Wrestling Mason & Cass isn't going to provide that feel. 

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1 minute ago, hammerlockthree said:

Sense the advent of Ferrari no one besides people on this forum remember PD3, so I'd put some stock in those predictions.

Ah, but those on the seeding committee apparently remember him.  Go back into your hole.

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8 minutes ago, hammerlockthree said:

Hey I'm just saying if he wasn't so boring, and could think of a catch phrase that wasn't plagiarized or nonsensical, he'd have a shot at being as cool as ferrari.

"Boring"?  Like I said, go back into your hole. The Lizard King Can Do Anything. 

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/CNGc3LpMEDh/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

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17 minutes ago, hammerlockthree said:

Hey I'm just saying if he wasn't so boring, and could think of a catch phrase that wasn't plagiarized or nonsensical, he'd have a shot at being as cool as ferrari.

Are you saying PD3 has a boring personality, or a boring style of wrestling? 

Because he definitely doesn't have a boring personality.  

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