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lu1979

Can the USA's Women unseat Japan in Tokyo?

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3 minutes ago, ShakaAloha said:

We will not win more individual golds than Japan at the 2021 Olympics.

Well if we win 3, we will at least tie them lol... it might not be very likely but it’s definitely possible.

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7 hours ago, maligned said:

In my opinion, Helen's not at nearly the same level as when she's been at lower weights and would tech or pin everyone but the top few in the world. She's still very good and a medal contender but I'd guess her to be our 4th most likely ladies' gold possibility. 

I agree. I’m being optimistic that she can get there (or at least close) by august. I did mention that I think we have 4 gold medal contenders and that actually getting 3 is a realistic possibility (all 4 would be incredibly unlikely, and 3 of 4 still somewhat unlikely). So I still believe we aren’t much of underdogs

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11 minutes ago, Eagle26 said:

Well if we win 3, we will at least tie them lol... it might not be very likely but it’s definitely possible.

You realize that as a country, we've won one Olympic gold medal in WFS in the last four Olympics combined, right?  We'd be lucky to get two golds in 2021.  

Japan won 4 golds in WFS at the '16 Olympics alone.  

Edited by ShakaAloha

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7 minutes ago, ShakaAloha said:

You realize that as a country, we've won one Olympic gold medal in WFS in the last four Olympics combined, right?  We'd be lucky to get two golds in 2021.  

Japan won 4 golds in WFS at the '16 Olympics alone.  

I do. The last Olympics was 5 years ago and our women’s team has improved greatly since then. I think the last world championships would be a better indicator of success than the last Olympics. Do you realize that in last world championships we had 3 champs and Japan had 1? And Helen Maroulis was not able to compete, so we could’ve had 4. 

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31 minutes ago, Eagle26 said:

I do. The last Olympics was 5 years ago and our women’s team has improved greatly since then. I think the last world championships would be a better indicator of success than the last Olympics. Do you realize that in last world championships we had 3 champs and Japan had 1? And Helen Maroulis was not able to compete, so we could’ve had 4. 

Want to do a signature bet?

We can put the line at 2.5 gold medals for the USA women for the 2021 Olympics.  Or we can do Japan vs. USA for total number of gold medals in WFS, and I will take Japan and spot you 1 gold.

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2 hours ago, ShakaAloha said:

We will not win more individual golds than Japan at the 2021 Olympics.

I am not knowledgeable at all about WFS but it does not seem to be the craziest result that could happen based on the US talent and knowing that surprising results happen in every tournament... Look at Penn State wrestlers winning all four finals when they were favorites in only one

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9 hours ago, ShakaAloha said:

Want to do a signature bet?

We can put the line at 2.5 gold medals for the USA women for the 2021 Olympics.  Or we can do Japan vs. USA for total number of gold medals in WFS, and I will take Japan and spot you 1 gold.

I’m not a betting man, but I suppose a friendly sig bet is fine. As I said, I think 3 gold medals is somewhat unlikely for us, but definitely a possibility. I think 2 gold medals is pretty likely, so if you are spotting me one gold, I'll take Japan vs USA +1. If we win two, Japan has to sweep the other 4 weights for you to win that. That’s possible but I like the odds there. I’d like to agree on “friendly” sigs before we make it official. DM me what you are thinking.

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10 hours ago, Eagle26 said:

I do. The last Olympics was 5 years ago and our women’s team has improved greatly since then. I think the last world championships would be a better indicator of success than the last Olympics. Do you realize that in last world championships we had 3 champs and Japan had 1? And Helen Maroulis was not able to compete, so we could’ve had 4. 

You're forgetting a major, major factor here.  Due to the way Japan did the Olympic team selection(medaling at the 2019 WC guaranteed a spot for the 2020 Olympics) All of Japan's TOP, A-Team women wrestlers faced off against each other at Olympic weights.  World champions knocked off other world champions all over the place.  All of the non-Olympic weights were Japan's B and C team members. 

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1 hour ago, CA_Wrestler said:

You're forgetting a major, major factor here.  Due to the way Japan did the Olympic team selection(medaling at the 2019 WC guaranteed a spot for the 2020 Olympics) All of Japan's TOP, A-Team women wrestlers faced off against each other at Olympic weights.  World champions knocked off other world champions all over the place.  All of the non-Olympic weights were Japan's B and C team members. 

Good point

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3 hours ago, CA_Wrestler said:

You're forgetting a major, major factor here.  Due to the way Japan did the Olympic team selection(medaling at the 2019 WC guaranteed a spot for the 2020 Olympics) All of Japan's TOP, A-Team women wrestlers faced off against each other at Olympic weights.  World champions knocked off other world champions all over the place.  All of the non-Olympic weights were Japan's B and C team members. 

Wouldn’t that also be the case this year when they all have to compete in the Olympic weights? I know one of our champs (Winchester) was in a non-Olympic weight, but we still had two ladies win Olympic weights. I get your point that the depth of Japan is unreal...definitely better than us overall. I’m just saying that when you look at the 6 we are sending vs whatever 6 they send... I think it will be close in gold medal counts. Depth isn’t as relevant there. Kinda like Iowa was the much better team this year overall but Penn State walked away with 4 champs. We have 2 heavy favorites to win gold plus I think the chances of us getting one between Winchester, Maroulis, and the others are decent. 3 gold medals would be guaranteed to be at least tied for the most and it’s certainly possible even if it’s not extremely likely. That’s all I’m saying lol

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Love me some Helen but yall acting like she teched her way through the last Olympics... She had some battles. 5 years removed from that win.

Getting bounced round 1 in her last worlds

And fresh off a 3 match battle with Burkert... I don't think she's a favorite to even medal.

 

Japan is as close to a lock as it gets.

I wouldn't be surprised if our only medals come from Mensah-Stock and Adeline.

But I'm really hopeful a couple of the other girls make the podium.

Big Hildebrandt, Jaccara, Helen fan...

But also realistic.

USA over Japan feels as likely as a Greco gold.

 

*Edit looked up her scores cause I was think she had multiple that I was worried she was going to lose before the finals, but she only had 1. Crunched everyone except

Yoshida and Myong-Suk

That Myong-Suk match I remember was tense but she won 7-4

 

If I need to know anything about wrestling or sports, I ask Frank Rizzo because he knows more than me.

 

 

 

 

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I agree with others who have a more tempered expectation. All 6 of those weights will be loaded with landmines wrestling at their highest level with the best training and nutrition support in an olympic year. 

Gray is favored but I'd say even 50% genuine expectation against the field for gold is optimistic. 

Tamyra could conceivably be more like 70%. 

But then Jacarra's probably only 2nd or 3rd best..maybe 15-20% for gold. And Helen is probably more like 4th or 5th best at 57. She can definitely win it, but the genuine probability is likely only about 10%. Throw in less than 5% combined gold probability for Hildebrandt and Miracle and a good over/under for golds is more like 1.5 than the 2.5 or 3 people are discussing. 

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50kg- Hildebrandt is wrestling really well at 50kg, but Susaki is back.  After her having a dislocated elbow late 2018, rested it for most of 2019, I'm expecting her to be very eager to go and I know Stadnik is glad Susaki wasn't there in the 2019 WC finals.

53kg, I still see Mukaida(2x WC, 2x silver) winning it.  She beat out college teammate Haruna Okuno(2x WC, she won the 2017 WC 53kg as a high schooler) for this year's spot.  Jacarra beat Irie(5-3) in a very close match the 2019 finals, but let's remember that Irie(her sister is Susaki's nemesis) is usually on Japan's B but mostly  C team.

57kg-  Although Helen is back, there's no way I'm not thinking Risako Kawai(1x Olympic champion, 3x WC, 1x silver) isn't going to be very ready to compete in her home country.  Let's also remember that Kawai went down in weight classes to make room for her sister at 62kg.  She also was breezing though the Emperor's Cup in 2018, but ran into Kaori Icho who didn't wrestle for 2 years and lost to Icho.  Kawai almost quit wrestling because of the loss, came back in 2019 at All-Japan and squeaked by Icho by 2 points setting up a playoff.  Kawai won 3-3 on criteria in the playoff match to decide who was going to represent 57kg for Japan at the 2019 World Championships.

62kg  Yukako Kawai(Risako's sister) 1x silver, 1x bronze.  She's worked her way up from bronze to silver the past few years and I could see her doing really well.  It's just hard for me to gauge.  I want Kayla to do well, so let's see what happens.

68kg- I've said this since 2019, but I've thought since then that TMS would win the Olympic gold in Tokyo.  She's just elevated her game so high.  Sara Dosho(2016 Olympic champ and 1x WC, 1x silver, 2x bronze) had a pretty serious shoulder injury a few years ago.  Even though she made this year's team, I can't see her beating TMS.

76kg-   Adeline's had very close matches with Minagawa(1x Silver, 2x bronze) in the past few years in the WC finals in 2019 as well as the World Cup that year.  I'm still picking Adeline, but from what happened the last Olympics, I can see her losing.  Don't know why.

Japan always struggles a little from 68-76kg, but the lighter weights are usually almost always lights out.

 

Edited by CA_Wrestler
typo

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Our women’s team is excellent. We have gold contenders at 4 weights and the other 2 can medal too. 
 

Japan is going to smash every other team. Not only are they the best team, they are wrestling at home.

I wouldn’t be that shocked at 5 golds for Japan. I’m picking 4. 

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8 hours ago, Eagle26 said:

Wouldn’t that also be the case this year when they all have to compete in the Olympic weights? I know one of our champs (Winchester) was in a non-Olympic weight, but we still had two ladies win Olympic weights. I get your point that the depth of Japan is unreal...definitely better than us overall. I’m just saying that when you look at the 6 we are sending vs whatever 6 they send... I think it will be close in gold medal counts. Depth isn’t as relevant there. Kinda like Iowa was the much better team this year overall but Penn State walked away with 4 champs. We have 2 heavy favorites to win gold plus I think the chances of us getting one between Winchester, Maroulis, and the others are decent. 3 gold medals would be guaranteed to be at least tied for the most and it’s certainly possible even if it’s not extremely likely. That’s all I’m saying lol

Well, it's similar, but not really.  Usually there are several more weight classes in the World Championships.  Those non-Olympic weights usually have Japan's A or B, but due to Japan's Olympic qualification process, all of those non-Olympic weights were abandoned by the top stars to try and secure a spot at an Olympic weight.

 

Take a look at a few of the past senior WC with all weights:

-2017 Senior World Championships in Paris with 2 high schoolers on Japan's Womens freestyle team that jumped from Cadet straight to Senior level.

50kg- Yui Susaki(high schooler) teched Vuc 10-0 in the Gold medal match

53kg- Mayu Mukaida lost on a last second TD by Kaladzinskya 6-8 in the Gold medal match.  Mukaida almost teched her, then Kaladinskya came back...crazy match. 

55kg- Haruna Okuno(high schooler) beat Adekuoroye 5-4 in the Gold medal match.  Okuno let Adekuroye get that one TD at the end to not give up a 4 point move. 

58kg- Katsuki Sakagami lost in the prelims to Khariv.  This is the year Helen won 11-0 against Amri in the finals!

60kg- Risako Kawai teched Ragan in the Gold medal match

63kg- Yukako Kawai lost to Castillo in the quarterfinals 0-2

69kg- Dosho beat Fokken 3-0 in the Gold medal match

75kg- Hiroe Minagawa beat Mae 6-0  in the bronze medal match

4 champions

1 silver

1 bronze

 

WFS team score:

Japan 60

USA/Belarus(tie) 38

 

-2018 Senior World Championships in Budapest for Women's Freestyle for Japan at close to full strength with everybody at their correct weights and a few junior wrestlers making the lineup due to injuries:

 

50kg- Yui Susaki teched Stadnik 10-0 in the Gold medal match

53kg- Haruna Okuno teched Sarah Hildebrandt 11-0 in the Gold medal match

55kg- Mayu Mukaida teched Sidakova 12-2 in the Gold medal match

57kg-  Katsuki Sakagami-Lost to Adekuroye in qualification 11-6

59kg- Risako Kawai beat Yesiliarmak 8-0 in the Gold medal match

62kg- Yukako Kawai lost to Yusein 2-6 in the Gold medal match

65kg- Anya Gempei beat Ritu 7-2 in the Gold medal match

68kg- Rio Watari lost to Fransson in qualification 5-7.  Dosho injured this year

72kg- Naruha Matsuyuki lost to Hamza 1-12 in the quarters

76kg- Hiroe Minagawa beat Nemeth in the bronze medal match

5 champions

1 silver

1 bronze

 

WFS team score:

Japan: 156

China: 119

USA: 103

 

 

 

Edited by CA_Wrestler
typo

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8 hours ago, Eagle26 said:

Wouldn’t that also be the case this year when they all have to compete in the Olympic weights? I know one of our champs (Winchester) was in a non-Olympic weight, but we still had two ladies win Olympic weights. I get your point that the depth of Japan is unreal...definitely better than us overall. I’m just saying that when you look at the 6 we are sending vs whatever 6 they send... I think it will be close in gold medal counts. Depth isn’t as relevant there. Kinda like Iowa was the much better team this year overall but Penn State walked away with 4 champs. We have 2 heavy favorites to win gold plus I think the chances of us getting one between Winchester, Maroulis, and the others are decent. 3 gold medals would be guaranteed to be at least tied for the most and it’s certainly possible even if it’s not extremely likely. That’s all I’m saying lol

I do think we have a good chance to win 2-3, but nothing is ever guaranteed.  We'll see.  Should be fun.

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6 hours ago, CA_Wrestler said:

Susaki is in.  She ran through everybody at the qualifier a few hours ago.

I watched her match with the Mongolian women who had beaten all of her opponents so that final round robin was like a true final.  Susaki looked great hitting a low shot right away to 2 laces.  She followed that up with a head pinch I thought should have been 4 but was scored 2 and then another lace for 2 for the tech. When Susaki hit the head pinch the Mongolian had come up to both feet and Susaki also stepped up before the throw.  Should have been 4 but Susaki's corner didn't throw the brick.

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9 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

I watched her match with the Mongolian women who had beaten all of her opponents so that final round robin was like a true final.  Susaki looked great hitting a low shot right away to 2 laces.  She followed that up with a head pinch I thought should have been 4 but was scored 2 and then another lace for 2 for the tech. When Susaki hit the head pinch the Mongolian had come up to both feet and Susaki also stepped up before the throw.  Should have been 4 but Susaki's corner didn't throw the brick.

I don't think her coaches were too worried about that last sequence.  Now, had it been in an Olympic match, then it would be a whole different story.

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1 minute ago, CA_Wrestler said:

I don't think her coaches were too worried about that last sequence.  Now, had it been in an Olympic match, then it would be a whole different story.

Agreed - but it should have been 4

Edited by lu1979

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