Bracketing numbers have been assigned...brutal draw for JO

[maligned 529]

Bracketing numbers are now listed on the OG qualifier page even though they havent officially listed the bracket. 

JO has Rasim of Bulgaria then Bekbulatov. He'd have Ogannesian of Ukraine in the quarters and either Gadzhiev, Lomtadze, or Skriaban in the semis. Literally every top guy is in the bottom half except the Turk Kilicsallyan

Edited May 5, 2021 by maligned

[Lurker 2,039]

I've always said nothing special is done easily....

[maligned 529]

If you're not familiar with bracketing procedures, there are 28 guys in this case. Put TS1 at the top with a bye. Put TS2 at the bottom with a bye. Then reverse fill round of 32 matches from the bottom starting with the highest numbers from the participant list. 

I'm sure brackets will be released shortly if you cant be bothered 

Edited May 5, 2021 by maligned

[nhs67 2,059]

Damn.  Here's to hoping the 65kg cut for Bekbul is like Green's.

JO still has great odds.  The word out is that his weight is well on point and he's feeling real good.

[nhs67 2,059]

How are the brackets for Amine, Finesilver, Abounader, and Ramos looking at 74/86, @maligned?

[nhs67 2,059]

Rivera, if he makes it that far, would see the winner of JO/Bekbul.

[treep2000 1,140]

Wishing JO the best of luck in trying to qualify.  However, I'm just not thinking the stars align. 

He has to have the best tournament of his life.  By the way, everyone else ALSO has to have the best tournament of their life.  This is going to be a dogfight, and the toughest situation he's ever faced. 

I hope the stars align, but I'm not seeing it.  

[maligned 529]

20 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Rivera, if he makes it that far, would see the winner of JO/Bekbul.

Good point. Didn't even notice it was him for Puerto Rico vs Ogannesian

[boconnell 1,624]

1 hour ago, maligned said:

If you're not familiar with bracketing procedures, there are 28 guys in this case. Put TS1 at the top with a bye. Put TS2 at the bottom with a bye. Then reverse fill round of 32 matches from the bottom starting with the highest numbers from the participant list. 

I'm sure brackets will be released shortly if you cant be bothered 

Idiotic.  

The olympics does not do brackets this way so an olympic qualifier shouldn't either.  This tournament is not tied to the world championships and shouldn't be using the worlds' bracketing model.

[maligned 529]

A positive spin on how the bracket could progress:

If you know you're going to face Bekbulatov, second might be the best match to face him. Rasim in the first round will be a real opponent, but he's probably 7th or 8th best of what I would have considered the 8 genuine contenders to qualify for Tokyo. You're awake after that match, but you get a long rest because there are so many round of 32 and round of 16 matches to be contested. He'll probably have a full 2 hours or so to recover and get ready to rock. If you get over that hump, you then face Ogannesyan or maybe the upstart Rivera in another match at a similar level to Rasim--a real opponent, but one that JO should win. Then he'll get the Lomtadze/Skriaban/Gadzhiev survivor--most likely Skriaban or Gadzhiev, who will have just finished back-to-back wars against the other two from that group.

Don't get me wrong. There's zero space for a slip up in 4 matches. But if you have to face that gauntlet, I like the order and timing compared to some other scenarios.

[maligned 529]

Just now, boconnell said:

Idiotic.  

The olympics does not do brackets this way so an olympic qualifier shouldn't either.  This tournament is not tied to the world championships and shouldn't be using the worlds' bracketing model.

Olympics use the same model. There are only byes in this case because there are 28 guys and 4 of them have to get byes. Two automatically go to the two seeds. In the Olympics, they still place them the same--but there are exactly 16 guys, so no byes.

[boconnell 1,624]

9 minutes ago, maligned said:

Olympics use the same model. There are only byes in this case because there are 28 guys and 4 of them have to get byes. Two automatically go to the two seeds. In the Olympics, they still place them the same--but there are exactly 16 guys, so no byes.

I guess it's technically the same if they fill from the bottom, but the olympics has no lopsided bracket and uses seeds.  This is no seeds and lopsided.  

[maligned 529]

5 minutes ago, boconnell said:

I guess it's technically the same if they fill from the bottom, but the olympics has no lopsided bracket and uses seeds.  This is no seeds and lopsided.  

They have two seeds in this case, which is pretty standard. Kilicsallyan the 1 and Skriaban the 2. That's why they get the automatic byes at the very top and bottom. Then the random draw comes into play from there. Again--standard, but eternally maddening.

Edited May 5, 2021 by maligned

[maligned 529]

7 minutes ago, boconnell said:

I guess it's technically the same if they fill from the bottom, but the olympics has no lopsided bracket and uses seeds.  This is no seeds and lopsided.  

@spladle08 posted the whole bracket on the 65kg qualification thread if you haven't seen it, fyi

Edited May 5, 2021 by maligned

[maligned 529]

56 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

How are the brackets for Amine, Finesilver, Abounader, and Ramos looking at 74/86, @maligned?

Amine probably won't get past his R16 potential opponents, but if so, he'd face Kuramagomedov, the 1 seed at that point in the quarters. 

I'd make Finesilver a slight dog against Gong the Korean first round and against the Armenian two rounds later in the quarters if he made it there--but regardless, he too would have to take out Kuramagomedov as his final hurdle.

There are no world beaters in Abounader's half, but he doesn't have any gimme rounds and will have to win 4 in a row as a slight to moderate underdog in matches he hasn't shown he wins yet.

Ramos gets a fluke #1 seed at 86kg (I'm assuming others just don't have ranking points?). He gets a bye because of it, but he'll face 3 matches of the same type as Abounader--quality, though not world beating, opponents he hasn't shown he beats.

 

 

[maligned 529]

5 minutes ago, maligned said:

Amine probably won't get past his R16 potential opponents, but if so, he'd face Kuramagomedov, the 1 seed at that point in the quarters. 

I'd make Finesilver a slight dog against Gong the Korean first round and against the Armenian two rounds later in the quarters if he made it there--but regardless, he too would have to take out Kuramagomedov as his final hurdle.

There are no world beaters in Abounader's half, but he doesn't have any gimme rounds and will have to win 4 in a row as a slight to moderate underdog in matches he hasn't shown he wins yet.

Ramos gets a fluke #1 seed at 86kg (I'm assuming others just don't have ranking points?). He gets a bye because of it, but he'll face 3 matches of the same type as Abounader--quality, though not world beating, opponents he hasn't shown he beats.

 

 

Side not about 86: such a unique weight. It's true that 65kg is the deepest with medal contenders, but there starts to be a steep drop-off from the top 10 or 15 to everybody else in the world. At 86 you've got 3 guys that won't lose at the olympics, basically no matter what. But it is by far the deepest weight in terms of "no gimmes." I literally count 20 of the 30 guys in the bracket tomorrow that have shown they can bang at the world level. And outside Taylor-Yazdani-Russia, the two guys that come out of the draw can beat anybody else that's already qualified on the right day. Looking at the last few worlds and Euros would be a ranking nightmare. Anybody can beat anybody.