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Jimmy Cinnabon

Would Wick to PSU make them the favorites next year?

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Assuming Spencer wrestles next season if PSU gets Wick to replace Joe Lee does PSU become the favorite next year?

 

I think the answer is no, given the holes at 125 with Howard's surgery and at 157 with Berge's retirement.

 

Iowa returns its full lineup.  PSU swaps Howard for Steen, Barroclough for Berge and perhaps Dean for Beard.

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Iowa won by 15.5 in 2021

Howard scored 1.5.   Let's call it 0 for Steen.   17 pt difference

Berge scored 3.  Let's call it 0 for Barraclaugh.  20 pt difference

Beard scored 9.5.  Dean scored 17 in 2019.   Call it 16 for 2022?   13.5 pt difference

Joe Lee scored 0.  Wick scored 15.5 in 2019.   Call it 15 for 2022?  1.5 pt difference for PSU

Bartlett will score in 2022.   Maybe AA's.  5.5?  7 pt difference for PSU

Marinelli scored 4 in 2021.  7.5 in 2019, 13 in 2018.  Call it 15 for 2022?  4 pt difference for Iowa.  Obviously he's the wild card.

Kerk scored 11 in 2021.  He improves in 2022.   Call it 15 for 2022?  tied.

I'll assume the rest stay equal for simplicity.   Some may higher, some may be lower but I don't envision the rest being too much different.   

So considering that includes 2 PSU guys scoring 0 and PSU's history of overperforming, yes I think Wick would make PSU the favorite.

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7 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Iowa won by 15.5 in 2021

Howard scored 1.5.   Let's call it 0 for Steen.   17 pt difference

Berge scored 3.  Let's call it 0 for Barraclaugh.  20 pt difference

Beard scored 9.5.  Dean scored 17 in 2019.   Call it 16 for 2022?   13.5 pt difference

Joe Lee scored 0.  Wick scored 15.5 in 2019.   Call it 15 for 2022?  1.5 pt difference for PSU

Bartlett will score in 2022.   Maybe AA's.  5.5?  7 pt difference for PSU

Marinelli scored 4 in 2021.  7.5 in 2019, 13 in 2018.  Call it 15 for 2022?  4 pt difference for Iowa.  Obviously he's the wild card.

Kerk scored 11 in 2021.  He improves in 2022.   Call it 15 for 2022?  tied.

I'll assume the rest stay equal for simplicity.   Some may higher, some may be lower but I don't envision the rest being too much different.   

So considering that includes 2 PSU guys scoring 0 and PSU's history of overperforming, yes I think Wick would make PSU the favorite.

One of the types of analyses I could never put together, I tournament math terribly.

For substantive discussion, I know spencer is a bad man, but he will have no knees next year if he wrestles.  I think he will get guys going at him hard just for the potential to further injure him.  It’s dirty, but he’s good, and dinging up the top guy adds up over time.

I also think Kirkvliet could well place higher than 7th, he looked very hurt at NCAA’s this year.

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2 minutes ago, Drew87 said:

One of the types of analyses I could never put together, I tournament math terribly.

Me too actually.  I'm not even a PSU fan, but the "Penn State Wrestling Club" has a good breakdown of individual scoring which is kinda what I was going off of - https://www.pennstatewrestlingclub.org/content/tournament.php

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Appreciate the quantitative breakdown by prisoner #1032004. I think some things likely shake out differently: (i) Iowa had a colossal meltdown in the finals last yr. and PSU was money; I don't see that happening to that extent again and the finals count for a lot of points; (ii) I don't think Marinelli chokes again (though I say this every year); and (iii) I believe Dean overperformed in 2019 and his points from that year may not be a good baseline.

I still see an Iowa gap, but S. Lee could be a question mark and Wick could add some points for PSU. At the very least, this all makes for a more interesting team race.

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41 minutes ago, Fletcher said:

Appreciate the quantitative breakdown by prisoner #1032004. I think some things likely shake out differently: (i) Iowa had a colossal meltdown in the finals last yr. and PSU was money; I don't see that happening to that extent again and the finals count for a lot of points; (ii) I don't think Marinelli chokes again (though I say this every year); and (iii) I believe Dean overperformed in 2019 and his points from that year may not be a good baseline.

I still see an Iowa gap, but S. Lee could be a question mark and Wick could add some points for PSU. At the very least, this all makes for a more interesting team race.

Eh, Iowa's "colossal meltdown in the finals" was 2 guys.   I think Kemerer has a good chance to flip the result, but Starocci was a freshman so most likely continues to improve so I think he needs to be considered the favorite to repeat.   Eierman could have Yianni in there, and despite his loss, he was still the 9th highest scorer at NCAA's.  Not to mention with how Lee looked at the trials he could continue to improve too so I think he needs to be considered the favorite too.

Marinelli of course is their best chance to improve points.  I'm surprised that people are saying Spencer could be less...I think he could be higher.    But they also got great results from Desanto, Cassioppi, and Warner that may be lower next year.

 

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40 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

is this legit?

Mentioned on the BWI forum a week or so ago.  Mentioned that PSU is possibly brining in a 157 pounder and Dellavecchia was mentioned.  Supposedly there's been communication.  

Edited by portajohn

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22 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Eh, Iowa's "colossal meltdown in the finals" was 2 guys. 

You're right. In my foggy memory, I was conflating Iowa's two losses with PSU's overperformance and calling all of it Iowa's meltdown.

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2 minutes ago, Fletcher said:

You're right. In my foggy memory, I was conflating Iowa's two losses with PSU's overperformance and calling all of it Iowa's meltdown.

It's been mentioned and proven that Cael's wrestlers tend to over perform at NCAA's vs the field.  I think Flo did a breakdown on this?  So last years PSU performance and Iowa's "meltdown" were ordinary results during this era w/Cael at PSU.  Should be factored in when projecting next year. 

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49 minutes ago, portajohn said:

It's been mentioned and proven that Cael's wrestlers tend to over perform at NCAA's vs the field.  I think Flo did a breakdown on this?  So last years PSU performance and Iowa's "meltdown" were ordinary results during this era w/Cael at PSU.  Should be factored in when projecting next year. 

Not to rehash it but I know other people were trying to claim Iowa's had a "meltdown."   Other than Marinelli, they really didn't.  If they had a real meltdown (like if Warner loses that match he should have lost then probably loses the next one too and Desanto gets DQ'd), PSU could have won.

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48 minutes ago, portajohn said:

It's been mentioned and proven that Cael's wrestlers tend to over perform at NCAA's vs the field.  I think Flo did a breakdown on this?  So last years PSU performance and Iowa's "meltdown" were ordinary results during this era w/Cael at PSU.  Should be factored in when projecting next year. 

They were 3-2 in 2019.

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10 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

like if Warner loses that match he should have

That was the most uncalled pin I can recall ever seeing since Johnny Hendricks got cradled in the finals against churella.  

The ref was just shy telling Reenan he needed a different singlet to get the pin called.  

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22 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Not to rehash it but I know other people were trying to claim Iowa's had a "meltdown."   Other than Marinelli, they really didn't.  If they had a real meltdown (like if Warner loses that match he should have lost then probably loses the next one too and Desanto gets DQ'd), PSU could have won.

Agreed. Iowa turned in a good performance at NCAAs, except for the Bull. Plus, the Bull may have actually been hurt (I know a lot of guys here think he just wimped out of consos). 

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21 minutes ago, TobusRex said:

Agreed. Iowa turned in a good performance at NCAAs, except for the Bull. Plus, the Bull may have actually been hurt (I know a lot of guys here think he just wimped out of consos). 

He grimaced and grabbed his ribs. If he was faking, he did a nice job.

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10 minutes ago, Mphillips said:

He grimaced and grabbed his ribs. If he was faking, he did a nice job.

Yeah he was definitely injured which contributed to his point total.  But he was also the 1 seed and lost in the quarters (again).

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46 minutes ago, Fletcher said:

They were 3-2 in 2019.

In the Cael era at NCAA Finals PSU wrestlers are 45-19 in placement bouts (70% Success rate). Have won 27 Titles out of 41 Finalist (66% Success Rate).  5-0 for 3rd place bouts, 8-3 for 5th, and 5-2 for 7th.  Their success at NCAA's and exceeding seed placement has been discussed ad nauseam.  Cael has gotten his wrestlers prepared for NCAA's better than anyone else in the last decade.  

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2 minutes ago, portajohn said:

In the Cael era at NCAA Finals PSU wrestlers are 45-19 in placement bouts (70% Success rate). Have won 27 Titles out of 41 Finalist (66% Success Rate).  5-0 for 3rd place bouts, 8-3 for 5th, and 5-2 for 7th.  Their success at NCAA's and exceeding seed placement has been discussed ad nauseam.  Cael has gotten his wrestlers prepared for NCAA's better than anyone else in the last decade.  

When your finals success rate is 66%, then 100% is overperformance.

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13 minutes ago, portajohn said:

In the Cael era at NCAA Finals PSU wrestlers are 45-19 in placement bouts (70% Success rate). Have won 27 Titles out of 41 Finalist (66% Success Rate).  5-0 for 3rd place bouts, 8-3 for 5th, and 5-2 for 7th.  Their success at NCAA's and exceeding seed placement has been discussed ad nauseam.  Cael has gotten his wrestlers prepared for NCAA's better than anyone else in the last decade.  

Just some stats to check out.

Penn State is 33-0 as the higher seed over the last 10 yrs and as the lower seed they are still 7-5.
40-5 in THE SEMI the last 10yrs!


Team ...........W/L % Higher seed W/L % Lower seed overall W/L %
Lock Haven 1-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-0 100.00%
South Da St 2-0 100.00% 2-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00%

West Virg U 1-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-0 100.00%

Penn State.. 40-5 88.89% 33-0 100.00% 7-5 58.33%

Illinois ..............6-2 75.00% 6-0 100.00% 0-2 0.00%
Stanford ..........3-1 75.00% 0-1 0.00% 3-0 100.00%

Arizona State .. 5-2 71.43% 4-1 80.00% 1-1 50.00%
Boise State ..... 2-1 66.67% 2-0 100.00% 0-1 0.00%

Wyoming ........2-1 66.67% 1-0 100.00% 1-1 50.00%
Lehigh ..............7-4 63.64% 2-2 50.00% 5-2 71.43%

Iowa State .......3-2 60.00% 2-0 100.00% 1-2 33.33%

Oklaho S U......17-12 58.62% 16-2 88.89% 1-10 9.09%

Edinboro ..........4-3 57.14% 2-1 66.67% 2-2 50.00%
Oklahoma ........4-3 57.14% 2-1 66.67% 2-2 50.00%


Cornell ..........14-12 53.85% 12-4 75.00% 2-8 20.00%
Iowa ...............17-15 53.13% 11-2 84.62% 6-13 31.58%

Ohio State ... 17-16 51.52% 14-6 70.00% 3-10 23.08%

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2 minutes ago, Mphillips said:

Just some stats to check out.

Penn State is 33-0 as the higher seed over the last 10 yrs and as the lower seed they are still 7-5.
40-5 in THE SEMI the last 10yrs!


Team ...........W/L % Higher seed W/L % Lower seed overall W/L %
Lock Haven 1-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-0 100.00%
South Da St 2-0 100.00% 2-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00%

West Virg U 1-0 100.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-0 100.00%

Penn State.. 40-5 88.89% 33-0 100.00% 7-5 58.33%

Illinois ..............6-2 75.00% 6-0 100.00% 0-2 0.00%
Stanford ..........3-1 75.00% 0-1 0.00% 3-0 100.00%

Arizona State .. 5-2 71.43% 4-1 80.00% 1-1 50.00%
Boise State ..... 2-1 66.67% 2-0 100.00% 0-1 0.00%

Wyoming ........2-1 66.67% 1-0 100.00% 1-1 50.00%
Lehigh ..............7-4 63.64% 2-2 50.00% 5-2 71.43%

Iowa State .......3-2 60.00% 2-0 100.00% 1-2 33.33%

Oklaho S U......17-12 58.62% 16-2 88.89% 1-10 9.09%

Edinboro ..........4-3 57.14% 2-1 66.67% 2-2 50.00%
Oklahoma ........4-3 57.14% 2-1 66.67% 2-2 50.00%


Cornell ..........14-12 53.85% 12-4 75.00% 2-8 20.00%
Iowa ...............17-15 53.13% 11-2 84.62% 6-13 31.58%

Ohio State ... 17-16 51.52% 14-6 70.00% 3-10 23.08%

Great stats. Thanks

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23 minutes ago, portajohn said:

Great stats. Thanks

Here's the rest if you're interested.

Cal Poly .............1-1 50.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-1 50.00%

Maryland ..........1-1 50.00% 1-1 50.00% 0-0 0.00%
Nebraska ..........3-3 50.00% 3-0 100.00% 0-3 0.00%


North C ST............6-6 50.00% 6-1 85.71% 0-5 0.00%
Pittsburgh ........3-3 50.00% 3-1 75.00% 0-2 0.00%

Rider ...................1-1 50.00% 0-0 0.00% 1-1 50.00%

Minnesota .........8-9 47.06% 6-2 75.00% 2-7 22.22%

Rutgers ...............3-4 42.86% 1-0 100.00% 2-4 33.33%
Michigan ............6-9 40.00% 5-3 62.50% 1-6 14.29%

Virginia ...............2-3 40.00% 1-0 100.00% 1-3 25.00%
Indiana ................1-2 33.33% 1-0 100.00% 0-2 0.00%

Kent State ..........2-4 33.33% 1-1 50.00% 1-3 25.00%
North Caro........ 2-4 33.33% 1-0 100.00% 1-4 20.00%


Missouri ...........6-14 30.00% 6-7 46.15% 0-7 0.00%
Northwestern ...3-7 30.00% 1-4 20.00% 2-3 40.00%

Wisconsin ....... ...3-7 30.00% 2-2 50.00% 1-5 16.67%
Virginia Tech ......2-9 18.18% 0-2 0.00% 2-7 22.22%

American ............1-5 16.67% 0-2 0.00% 1-3 25.00%
Northern Iowa ....1-5 16.67% 1-1 50.00% 0-4 0.00%

Appalachian St .....0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Bucknell ..............0-1 0.00% 0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00%

Central Michigan..0-3 0.00% 0-2 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Citadel .................0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%

Clarion .................0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Columbia ............0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%

Duke .....................0-3 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-3 0.00%
Hofstra ................0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%

North Dakota st....0-1 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-1 0.00%
Old Dominion ...0-2 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-2 0.00%

Oregon State .....0-3 0.00% 0-0 0.00% 0-3 0.00%
Princeton ............0-3 0.00% 0-1 0.00% 0-2 0.00%

Utah Valley .........0-3 0.00% 0-1 0.00% 0-2 0.00%

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3 hours ago, TobusRex said:

Agreed. Iowa turned in a good performance at NCAAs, except for the Bull. Plus, the Bull may have actually been hurt (I know a lot of guys here think he just wimped out of consos). 

I think it was Tom Brands, said he had a dislocated rib and took cartilage with it or something, you can see it happen in the last scramble, Marinelli kinda folds and has his hand right to the spot immediately. Rib things are right up there with shoulder things in terms of debilitating a wrestler.

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