Does being a 4X high school champ increase the likelihood of being an NCAA champ?

[BobDole 1,192]

Putting together some data, if you know of a place to get it for your state, send it to me.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sCcESZRzBobVFbeJlkmYCtBAxZ2b0eVadBydOsDRtE8/edit?usp=sharing

*Thanks to the guy who does not like Republicans @JasonBryant's Almanac it has made it a lot easier to verify NCAA placings.

[jp157 480]

Nice thank you 

[Jimmy Cinnabon 411]

It certainly doesn't decrease it.

[Jaroslav Hasek 2,047]

i was sure the answer to this question was 'no' but looks like i'll have to update my priors based on this new data.

[unbiased 516]

Not in PA.

[Bozak2018 92]

In modern times for Indiana we had 4xers:

Lance Ellis 1989 - barely saw mat time at IU

Alex Tsirtsis and Blake Maurer 2004 - Tsirtsis 1x AA, Maurer was a NCAA qualifier before injuries 

Angel Escobedo 2005 - NCAA champ, and 4x AA

Jason Tsirtsis - NCAA champ,  I think his style of keeping matches close and win at the end caught up to him along with all the personal stuff 

Chad Red - 4x AA, but not really close to winning a title.

I think a lot has to do with what school they end up at and how the coaching staff further develops them.  Sometimes it is a case of being a man among boys in HS and then getting slapped by reality when you get in a D1 program.  Take a guy like NIck Lee.  He was only a 1x state champ.  He lost to Micic as a freshman and Red as a jr (skipped his sr year).  He goes to Penn St and has outperformed both of those guys on the NCAA level.  

[nom 1,179]

More fuel for the NJ proud folks!

[BobDole 1,192]

10 minutes ago, nom said:

More fuel for the NJ proud folks!

On 4-timers alone New Jersey is 2 for 4. I'm still trying to find the data on the 1970's and 1980's. From what I have seen it looks like there were only three chances at a title in the 1980's.

More information would be greatly appreciated if you have it.

[Idaho 1,322]

In CA it's better to be a 3x champ in regards to winning an NCAA title. 

[MSU158 1,980]

Michigan actually has 30-4xers and 9 technically still have eligibility:  https://www.mhsaa.com/Sports/Wrestling/Record-Book/Finals-Records

[smsu150 24]

Missouri has had two: Cody Brewer and J'Den Cox. There are several that have won 4 (state titles) and became AA's or multiple time AA's. 

Off the top of my head:

Zach Bailey (OU), Scott Schatzman (Northwestern), Brock Mauller (MU), Jaydin Eierman(MU/Iowa)  

I'm probably missing a few. 

 

 

[gimpeltf 2,045]

1 hour ago, BobDole said:

On 4-timers alone New Jersey is 2 for 4. I'm still trying to find the data on the 1970's and 1980's. From what I have seen it looks like there were only three chances at a title in the 1980's.

More information would be greatly appreciated if you have it.

3 chances at which title in the 70s and 80s?

NCAAs had 4 chances all that time as did NJ.

[Mphillips 1,658]

OHIO

1. Mark Zimmer Columbus St. Francis DeSales 1976, 77, 78, 79
 2. Jim Jordan St. Paris Graham Local 1979, 80, 81, 82
 3. Jeff Jordan St. Paris Graham Local 1980, 81, 82, 83
 4. Erik Burnett Oberlin 1984, 85, 86, 87
 5. Dan Hanson Richmond Heights 1984, 85, 86, 87
 6. Ken Ramsey Lancaster Fisher Catholic 1984, 85,  Columbus Bishop Ready 1984, 85, 86, 87
 7. Willie Wineberg Fairfield 1991, 92, 93, 94
 8. John McGhee Akron Coventry 1993, 94, 95, 96
 9. Jared Opfer Sandusky St. Mary Central Catholic 1996, 97, 98, 99
10. Harry Lester Cuyahoga Falls CVCA 1998, 99, 00, 01
11. Ryan Lang Lakewood St. Edward 2000, 01, 02, 03
12. C.P. Schlatter Columbus St. Francis DeSales 2000, 01,  St. Paris Graham Local 02, 03
13. Jeff Jaggers Bedford St. Peter Chanel 2001, 02, 03, 04
14. Dustin Schlatter St. Paris Graham Local 2002, 03,  Massillon Perry 04, 05
15. Lance Palmer Lakewood St. Edward 2003, 04, 05, 06
16. Tony Jameson Youngstown Austintown-Fitch 2005, 06, 07, 08
17. Collin Palmer Lakewood St. Edward 2006, 07, 08, 09
18. David Taylor St. Paris Graham Local 2006, 07, 08, 09
19. Logan Stieber Monroeville 2007, 08, 09, 10
20. Chris Phillips Monroeville 2008, 09, 10, 11
21. Hunter Stieber Monroeville 2008, 09, 10, 11
22. Cam Tessari Monroeville 2008, 09, 10, 11
23. Dean Heil Lakewood St. Edward 2010, 11, 12, 13
24. Bo Jordan St. Paris Graham Local 2010, 11, 12, 13
25. Nathan Tomasello Cuyahoga Falls CVCA 2010, 11, 12, 13

 

[Henry 102]

18 minutes ago, Mphillips said:

Jeff Jaggers Bedford St. Peter Chanel 2001, 02, 03, 04

J Jaggers first name is Jeff? 

[TripNSweep 735]

Depends on where you wrestle. A 4x state champion from Kentucky is less likely to AA than a 4x state champion from Ohio or California. 

[Mizzoufan01 36]

2 hours ago, smsu150 said:

Missouri has had two: Cody Brewer and J'Den Cox. There are several that have won 4 (state titles) and became AA's or multiple time AA's. 

Off the top of my head:

Zach Bailey (OU), Scott Schatzman (Northwestern), Brock Mauller (MU), Jaydin Eierman(MU/Iowa)  

I'm probably missing a few. 

 

 

TJ Hill 1xAA, Shon Fry 2xAA, Alan Waters 2xAA, Daniel Lewis 4xAA. In addition that I could think of. 

[flyingcement 751]

Here is Delaware for you below.  Ten four timers.  One champion and one additional all American.  

 

Wrestler - NCAA Status - School

Jim Terry St. Andrew's 1957-60 (120-112-120-127)-Unknown-Delaware

Kurt Howell Newark 1983-86 (98-105-112-119)-All American-Clemson

Randy Brown Laurel 1984-85, Delmar 1986-87 (98-119-126-132)-Unknown-Unknown

Sheldon Thomas St. Mark's 1989-92 (103-103-112-119)-NCAA 1st-Clarion

Damien Craighton William Penn 1993-96 (171-171-189-189)-Qualified-Drexel

Bruce Kelly St. Mark's 1995-98 (112-119-119-125)-Never qualified-Lehigh

Andrew Donofrio St. Mark's 1999-2002 (119-140-145-152)-Never qualified-Virginia Tech

Sean Dolan St. Mark's 2007-10 (103-112-119-119)-Junior College-Northwest Kansas Tech

Codey Combs Sussex Central 2008-11 (125-140-145-152)-Never started-ASU

Brent Fleetwood Smyrna 2011-14 (103-106-113-120)-NCAA Qualifier-NDSU

 

[jp157 480]

3 hours ago, Mphillips said:

OHIO

1. Mark Zimmer Columbus St. Francis DeSales 1976, 77, 78, 79
 2. Jim Jordan St. Paris Graham Local 1979, 80, 81, 82
 3. Jeff Jordan St. Paris Graham Local 1980, 81, 82, 83
 4. Erik Burnett Oberlin 1984, 85, 86, 87
 5. Dan Hanson Richmond Heights 1984, 85, 86, 87
 6. Ken Ramsey Lancaster Fisher Catholic 1984, 85,  Columbus Bishop Ready 1984, 85, 86, 87
 7. Willie Wineberg Fairfield 1991, 92, 93, 94
 8. John McGhee Akron Coventry 1993, 94, 95, 96
 9. Jared Opfer Sandusky St. Mary Central Catholic 1996, 97, 98, 99
10. Harry Lester Cuyahoga Falls CVCA 1998, 99, 00, 01
11. Ryan Lang Lakewood St. Edward 2000, 01, 02, 03
12. C.P. Schlatter Columbus St. Francis DeSales 2000, 01,  St. Paris Graham Local 02, 03
13. Jeff Jaggers Bedford St. Peter Chanel 2001, 02, 03, 04
14. Dustin Schlatter St. Paris Graham Local 2002, 03,  Massillon Perry 04, 05
15. Lance Palmer Lakewood St. Edward 2003, 04, 05, 06
16. Tony Jameson Youngstown Austintown-Fitch 2005, 06, 07, 08
17. Collin Palmer Lakewood St. Edward 2006, 07, 08, 09
18. David Taylor St. Paris Graham Local 2006, 07, 08, 09
19. Logan Stieber Monroeville 2007, 08, 09, 10
20. Chris Phillips Monroeville 2008, 09, 10, 11
21. Hunter Stieber Monroeville 2008, 09, 10, 11
22. Cam Tessari Monroeville 2008, 09, 10, 11
23. Dean Heil Lakewood St. Edward 2010, 11, 12, 13
24. Bo Jordan St. Paris Graham Local 2010, 11, 12, 13
25. Nathan Tomasello Cuyahoga Falls CVCA 2010, 11, 12, 13

 

I thought Jameson would do so well in college 

[Billyhoyle 2,472]

Increase the likelihood compared to what? You’re wasting your time if the comparison is to the average wrestler or average state champ because the answer will obviously be that it does. 

[Chet Hanson 21]

3 hours ago, MSU158 said:

Michigan actually has 30-4xers and 9 technically still have eligibility:  https://www.mhsaa.com/Sports/Wrestling/Record-Book/Finals-Records

The four wrestlers from the upper peninsula should be omitted from any analysis.

[portajohn 436]

6 hours ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

i was sure the answer to this question was 'no' but looks like i'll have to update my priors based on this new data.

Everything in your life has  eventually become a revelation that you should switch from single ply to double ply. Unfortunately you're not yet quite there with your ranking knowledge

Edited June 16, 2021 by portajohn

[Husker_Du 838]

3 hours ago, Henry said:

J Jaggers first name is Jeff? 

yes but he hates to be called that. 

[Katie 1,076]

6 hours ago, Bozak2018 said:

In modern times for Indiana we had 4xers:

Lance Ellis 1989 - barely saw mat time at IU

Alex Tsirtsis and Blake Maurer 2004 - Tsirtsis 1x AA, Maurer was a NCAA qualifier before injuries 

Angel Escobedo 2005 - NCAA champ, and 4x AA

Jason Tsirtsis - NCAA champ,  I think his style of keeping matches close and win at the end caught up to him along with all the personal stuff 

Chad Red - 4x AA, but not really close to winning a title.

I think a lot has to do with what school they end up at and how the coaching staff further develops them.  Sometimes it is a case of being a man among boys in HS and then getting slapped by reality when you get in a D1 program.  Take a guy like NIck Lee.  He was only a 1x state champ.  He lost to Micic as a freshman and Red as a jr (skipped his sr year).  He goes to Penn St and has outperformed both of those guys on the NCAA level.  

Ellis was an NCAA qualifier before dropping out (I believe).

[Antitroll2828 987]

6 hours ago, BobDole said:

On 4-timers alone New Jersey is 2 for 4. I'm still trying to find the data on the 1970's and 1980's. From what I have seen it looks like there were only three chances at a title in the 1980's.

More information would be greatly appreciated if you have it.

 

4 hours ago, gimpeltf said:

3 chances at which title in the 70s and 80s?

NCAAs had 4 chances all that time as did NJ.

http://theshoreconference.com/NJHistory/StateChamps.html 
 

 On the right side of this page lists all the 4 timers ( 4 of them) with 2 national champs, and all the 3 timers in NJ history  ( 7 of them went on to win national titles) 

Edited June 17, 2021 by Antitroll2828

[Henry 102]

1 hour ago, Husker_Du said:

yes but he hates to be called that. 

Does J Robinson have a first name? His wikipedia page lists his given name as J Paul.