Jump to content
Housebuye

Which country will outperform expectations at the Olympic?

Recommended Posts

Freestyle only.
 

For example, even though Russia is clearly the best on paper, them winning 4 golds and 6 medals would be an incredible performance. 
  
USA with 6 medals and/or 2 golds 
  
India seems to be their best ever. 3 medals and 1 gold would be an excellent performance. 
  
my pick is Japan. I think they way outperform and win 57kg and medal in 2 other weights. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Housebuye said:

Freestyle only.
 

For example, even though Russia is clearly the best on paper, them winning 4 golds and 6 medals would be an incredible performance. 
  
USA with 6 medals and/or 2 golds 
  
India seems to be their best ever. 3 medals and 1 gold would be an excellent performance. 
  
my pick is Japan. I think they way outperform and win 57kg and medal in 2 other weights. 

If you are just talking about men's freestyle the USA winning 6 medals would be an unbelievable performance.  I think you are right about Japan doing well but I would think they are more likely to get gold at 65kg than 57 although both are good bets to medal. i will be surprised to see them medal at 74 or 86 kg.  I would say a great job by the US would be 4 medals with 2 being gold.  

If I had to pick a country to overperform I might guess Iran - they only have Yazdani seeded but I could see them with 3 or 4 medals.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

India could walk away with three medals if the stars are aligned just right. If that happens and Bajrang somehow brings home a gold then that be a much welcomed instant and significant participation boost for our niche sport.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Housebuye said:

Freestyle only.
 

For example, even though Russia is clearly the best on paper, them winning 4 golds and 6 medals would be an incredible performance. 
  
USA with 6 medals and/or 2 golds 
  
India seems to be their best ever. 3 medals and 1 gold would be an excellent performance. 
  
my pick is Japan. I think they way outperform and win 57kg and medal in 2 other weights. 

USA only has 57, 74, 86, 97 and HWT right?  How can they (we) get to six?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, treep2000 said:

USA only has 57, 74, 86, 97 and HWT right?  How can they (we) get to six?

Easy: a car wreck, a hot piss test, a time machine for JO to make weight and win bronze on blown knee ligaments, and a stellar performance at the most parity-ridden weight in the world where the US hasn’t medaled in 15 years. Easy peezy lemon squeezy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In my opinion Bajrang is closer to not winning a medal at all than he is to winning gold, but I think India can have a good olympics. Bronze and silver is what they got in 2012 and I think they can repeat that if the brackets align correctly. 

I'll say if Iran gets 1 gold and 2 other medals that will be a good end to a rough cycle and could be considered an over performance. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, treep2000 said:

USA only has 57, 74, 86, 97 and HWT right?  How can they (we) get to six?

That was my point when I said it would be unbelievable - to subtle I guess ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, treep2000 said:

USA only has 57, 74, 86, 97 and HWT right?  How can they (we) get to six?

We didn’t qualify in 2016 either...but yeah it’s unlikely. I was just giving examples. 
  
Which men’s freestyle outperforms and what do they do? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Shiraz123 said:

In my opinion Bajrang is closer to not winning a medal at all than he is to winning gold, but I think India can have a good olympics. Bronze and silver is what they got in 2012 and I think they can repeat that if the brackets align correctly. 

I'll say if Iran gets 1 gold and 2 other medals that will be a good end to a rough cycle and could be considered an over performance. 

I hear you on Bajrang, but tournaments benefit his style, especially in a deep weight. He would lose to probably 4 guys in the field fresh, but he won’t see any of them most likely until round 2 or even 3. At that point he has a great shot at taking anyone out. 
  
he also has been training all over the world. I expect he will continue to improve. 
 

1 gold and 2 other medals for Iran would be impressive. I’m assuming you think Hadi, Mohammadean and Yazdani (86) are your medalists?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

India could walk away with three medals if the stars are aligned just right. If that happens and Bajrang somehow brings home a gold then that be a much welcomed instant and significant participation boost for our niche sport.

Ravi is excellent. I think so dis medals at 57 and 65. Who else do you think can make the podium? 86kg? Def possible. He makes every podium somehow 

Edited by Housebuye

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

I hear you on Bajrang, but tournaments benefit his style, especially in a deep weight. He would lose to probably 4 guys in the field fresh, but he won’t see any of them most likely until round 2 or even 3. At that point he has a great shot at taking anyone out. 
  
he also has been training all over the world. I expect he will continue to improve. 
 

1 gold and 2 other medals for Iran would be impressive. I’m assuming you think Hadi, Mohammadean and Yazdani (86) are your medalists?

Hadi isn't going but yes I assume Zare at 125 would be the other medalist. In 2016 we got 1 gold,  1 silver and a bronze yet prior to the tournament none of them were the main favourite to win gold. So back then I considered that result a good performance. I think they are in the same situation again for Tokyo. Definitely some chances but no clear favourite for gold in the team. If they can win a gold at 86 or 125 ( I assume Sadulaev isn't losing) and medal at the other 2 then I consider that a good result and better than expected.

Looking at the past cycle:

2017: 1 medal ( Yazdani - gold 86)

2018: 3 medals (  all Bronze at 86 , 92 and 125) 

2019: 4 medals ( Yazdani gold at 86, Emami and Ehsanpour bronze at 70 and 61, Karimi silver at 92) 

So even with a 10 weight worlds we generally get around 3 medals anyway in this cycle, with the reduction to 6 weights I think 3 medals with 1 of them being gold is an over performance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Shiraz123 said:

Hadi isn't going but yes I assume Zare at 125 would be the other medalist. In 2016 we got 1 gold,  1 silver and a bronze yet prior to the tournament none of them were the main favourite to win gold. So back then I considered that result a good performance. I think they are in the same situation again for Tokyo. Definitely some chances but no clear favourite for gold in the team. If they can win a gold at 86 or 125 ( I assume Sadulaev isn't losing) and medal at the other 2 then I consider that a good result and better than expected.

Looking at the past cycle:

2017: 1 medal ( Yazdani - gold 86)

2018: 3 medals (  all Bronze at 86 , 92 and 125) 

2019: 4 medals ( Yazdani gold at 86, Emami and Ehsanpour bronze at 70 and 61, Karimi silver at 92) 

So even with a 10 weight worlds we generally get around 3 medals anyway in this cycle, with the reduction to 6 weights I think 3 medals with 1 of them being gold is an over performance.

Meant Zare

Thanks. Good breakdown 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Shiraz123 said:

In my opinion Bajrang is closer to not winning a medal at all than he is to winning gold,

Very much agree with this. 65 could have different medalists every weekend and that even includes Uguev who I predict will get gold.

2 hours ago, Housebuye said:

Ravi is excellent. I think so dis medals at 57 and 65. Who else do you think can make the podium? 86kg? Def possible. He makes every podium somehow 

57 is a crapshoot just like 65 so Ravi will be a coinflip

Going as far back as juniors Punia @ 86 is a masterclass in taking advantage of a lopsided worlds bracket. stepping up on the biggest stage, and overachieving when given the opportunity. When Yaz, Taylor, Naifanov, Amine, Makojev, and Erdin are all on the top bracket and Punia, Angus Arthur, Carlos Izquierdo, and Reichmuth sit on the bottom then we will see a repeat of 2019 worlds.

And that's how India gets three medals or goes 0-3, with no surprises in between.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Shiraz123 said:

Hadi isn't going but yes I assume Zare at 125 would be the other medalist. In 2016 we got 1 gold,  1 silver and a bronze yet prior to the tournament none of them were the main favourite to win gold. So back then I considered that result a good performance. I think they are in the same situation again for Tokyo. Definitely some chances but no clear favourite for gold in the team. If they can win a gold at 86 or 125 ( I assume Sadulaev isn't losing) and medal at the other 2 then I consider that a good result and better than expected.

Looking at the past cycle:

2017: 1 medal ( Yazdani - gold 86)

2018: 3 medals (  all Bronze at 86 , 92 and 125) 

2019: 4 medals ( Yazdani gold at 86, Emami and Ehsanpour bronze at 70 and 61, Karimi silver at 92) 

So even with a 10 weight worlds we generally get around 3 medals anyway in this cycle, with the reduction to 6 weights I think 3 medals with 1 of them being gold is an over performance.

No shortage of pressure on Yazdani.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Housebuye said:

I hear you on Bajrang, but tournaments benefit his style, especially in a deep weight. He would lose to probably 4 guys in the field fresh, but he won’t see any of them most likely until round 2 or even 3. At that point he has a great shot at taking anyone out. 
  
he also has been training all over the world. I expect he will continue to improve. 
 

1 gold and 2 other medals for Iran would be impressive. I’m assuming you think Hadi, Mohammadean and Yazdani (86) are your medalists?

I would that Kumar Ravi has a good chance of making it to the finals - obviously that depends on who else gets drawn into his side of the bracket but he is opposite of Ugaev and Atli which is a good start.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking back on 2016 to see who overperformed there, and I forgot how awesome Azerbaijan did:  Bronze, Silver, Bronze, Bronze, Silver, DNP.  Pretty crazy. 

I could see Japan, Iran, and USA potentially outplacing their current rankings. "The Athletes Formerly Known as Russian" just matching their current rankings would be absolutely incredible, though.

Kozak has them 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 5. 
https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/6634709-2020-21-international-rankings-mens-freestyle/38777-57-zaur-uguev
I would think that they underperform that significantly, because only three total loses at the Olympics seems impossible.

Edited by GoNotQuietly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, GoNotQuietly said:

Looking back on 2016 to see who overperformed there, and I forgot how awesome Azerbaijan did:  Bronze, Silver, Bronze, Bronze, Silver, DNP.  Pretty crazy. 

There was some scuttlebutt that some self-proclaimed little j journalists dug up regarding 2016 corruption with the Azerbaijan squad. Kazakhstan also overperformed when it hosted 2019 worlds. Perhaps Japan will exceed expectations this year ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There was some scuttlebutt that some self-proclaimed little j journalists dug up regarding 2016 corruption with the Azerbaijan squad. Kazakhstan also overperformed when it hosted 2019 worlds. Perhaps Japan will exceed expectations this year ;)

Oh man I forgot about a lot of this. Holding that dudes hand down is such a perfect picture of international wrestling, and sports generally. If Sumo is any guide, Japan will probably get some major and minor miracles in Tokyo.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/21/2021 at 1:03 PM, bnwtwg said:

Very much agree with this. 65 could have different medalists every weekend and that even includes Uguev who I predict will get gold.

57 is a crapshoot just like 65 so Ravi will be a coinflip

Going as far back as juniors Punia @ 86 is a masterclass in taking advantage of a lopsided worlds bracket. stepping up on the biggest stage, and overachieving when given the opportunity. When Yaz, Taylor, Naifanov, Amine, Makojev, and Erdin are all on the top bracket and Punia, Angus Arthur, Carlos Izquierdo, and Reichmuth sit on the bottom then we will see a repeat of 2019 worlds.

And that's how India gets three medals or goes 0-3, with no surprises in between.

 

I agree, 86kg India won’t medal. But I think Ravi Kumar at 57kg has good chance to become the first wrestler from India to win a gold in Olympics. Bajrang will also medal, mostly Bronze. 

By the way - on women’s side, Vinesh Phogat at 53kg got a good chance to win a medal or even gold. There is also another young women wrestler Anshu Malik at 57kg with a good chance of medaling. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I say Japan, the host country almost always has an execptional year, usually setting records for the amount of medals across all events, Korea had 9 medals and two golds in 1988 (FS and GR)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...