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Freestyle Olympics Predictions

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1 hour ago, BSUBroncoDynasty said:

Can't wait to see how Gable Steveson does at 125 KG. Some tough competition for sure, but seems like it would be silly to totally count him out against the best.

Not at all. He is a wildcard for sure, imo just hard to say he will beat Akgul Geno or Zare right now. I favour those 3 over him. But definitely can't count him out. Anything can happen!

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7 minutes ago, Uwwdoc said:

Not at all. He is a wildcard for sure, imo just hard to say he will beat Akgul Geno or Zare right now. I favour those 3 over him. But definitely can't count him out. Anything can happen!

I can absolutely see why you favor Akgul and Geno over Steveson.    With their credentials it will be a major upset if Gable beats them (although I think he can do it) but why wouldn't he be favored over Zare? - they both have dominated Gwiz and Gable has handled their other common opponent (Parris) easily while Zare was pinned by him.  Just interested in your thinking on that.

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16 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

I can absolutely see why you favor Akgul and Geno over Steveson.    With their credentials it will be a major upset if Gable beats them (although I think he can do it) but why wouldn't he be favored over Zare? - they both have dominated Gwiz and Gable has handled their other common opponent (Parris) easily while Zare was pinned by him.  Just interested in your thinking on that.

Zare has beaten Geno, Parviz Hadi, Makhov, Rakhimov (who teched Gable when they last wrestled in 2019) and Gwiz (multiple times) and medalled at several international tournaments (Youth Olympic Silver, World Junior Silver, U23 Gold, won 2020 Matteo Pelicone and recent Polish tournament).  By any metric he is more accomplished. 

Edited by The Genius

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39 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

I can absolutely see why you favor Akgul and Geno over Steveson.    With their credentials it will be a major upset if Gable beats them (although I think he can do it) but why wouldn't he be favored over Zare? - they both have dominated Gwiz and Gable has handled their other common opponent (Parris) easily while Zare was pinned by him.  Just interested in your thinking on that.

Couple of the guys above posted some credentials, and completely agree he is more accomplished at senior level and has better names on the resume. Not a fan of wrestle math to say this guy is better than that guy like the Parris example. For eg. It was only a couple years ago Gwiz beat Gable twice, but that is all irrelevant at this point in time now. The big reason I would favour him personally is that for me it is more Zare's style, I feel he would control Gable pretty well with the underhook and nullify any explosiveness and strength. Zare won't underestimate him either, so I would favour him. Akgul and Geno are the big 2 favs though. Zare and Gable are the dark horses. 

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Just watched Sadulaev's matches at Aliev for a second time right now and again, imo there is no way this guy is rusty, out of shape, not peaking, none of that. I'm convinced he was just playing with his opponents/teammates and was never in danger of losing any of those 4 matches. What I did see in those matches:

Qualifier - thought Sadulaev could have rolled up Kabisov in 30 seconds if he really wanted to but the match went 5 minutes. To me, didn't look like Sadulaev went anywhere near full blast on that attempt in the beginning where Kabisov goes up 2-0. Then Sadulaev shows how easy he can score with 7 seconds left in the 1st. Plays with the guy and wins 12-2.

1/8 - Sadulaev never in trouble against Goleij (IRI) and shows a gorgeous TD at the 4:00 mark. Who needs legs? Wins 4-0.

1/4 - Sadulaev shows his real stuff right off the bat, 10 seconds into the match with a world class chest wrap to go up 2-0. Even though his teammate Magomedov scored 4 and took the lead, it appeared to me that Sadulaev was not even close to ever losing that match (and it still looked to me that Sadulaev did not fight that 4, I know I'm crazy). Sadulaev looking good going upper body again 20 seconds into 2nd period.

1/2 - Sadulaev has 1-0 lead in 1st but intensity picks up in 2nd period and teammate Baitsaev finally attacked and went for it at the end where Sadulaev is finally forced to wrestle and scored an easy chest wrap counter.    

My takeaway from Aliev is that Sadulaev coasted through this tournament and worked on upper body scores and attacks especially chest wraps. Sadulaev is probably in the peak of his career and I'm sure he is peaking in training for Tokyo. Won't be surprised to see Sadulaev throw a shutout and go unscored upon (or close to it) on his way to gold.* Also will not be surprised to see Sadulaev hit a lot of cool upper body stuff at the Olympics.  

* Sadulaev is human and it is sports, so anything can happen.   (Go Kyle!)   

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Here is my take - listing the top contenders, challengers and under dog in each category. I also highlighted (in bold) my predication for (1) Gold (2) Silver  (3) Bronze

57kg
Top Contender: Zaur Uguev (RUS) (3)
Challengers: Ravi Kumar (IND) (1), Yuki Takahasi (JPN) (3)
Under Dog: Erdenbat Bekhbayar (MGL) (2)
 

65kg
Top Contenders: Rashidov (RUS) (2), Otoguro (JPN)  (1)
Challengers: Haji Aliyev (AZE), Bajrang (IND) (3)
Under Dog: Tevanyan(ARM) (3), Akmataliev ( the guys that pinned Bekbulatov)


74kg
Top Contender:  Sidakov(RUS) (3), Frank Chamizo (ITA) (2)
Challengers: Kyle Dake (1)
Under Dog: Kentchadze (GEO) (3)

 

86kg
Top Contender: David Taylor (2)
Challengers: Hassan Yazdani (IRI) (1), Artur Naifnov (RUS)
Under Dog: Stefan Reichmuth (SUI) (3)

 
97kg
Top Contender: Sadulaev (RUS) (1)
Challengers: Snyder (USA) (3), Mohammadian (IRI) (2), Sharifov (AZE)
Under Dog: Saritov (ROU) (3), Ibragimov (UZB)
 

125kg
Top Contender:  Taha Akgul (1)
Challengers: Geno (3), Zare (2)
Under Dog: Gable Steveson (3)

Edited by freestyle_fan
corrected 86 based on seeding

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25 minutes ago, freestyle_fan said:

Here is my take - listing the top contenders, challengers and under dog in each category. I also highlighted (in bold) my predication for (1) Gold (2) Silver  (3) Bronze

57kg
Top Contender: Zaur Uguev (RUS) (3)
Challengers: Ravi Kumar (IND) (1), Yuki Takahasi (JPN) (3)
Under Dog: Erdenbat Bekhbayar (MGL) (2)
 

65kg
Top Contenders: Rashidov (RUS) (2), Otoguro (JPN)  (1)
Challengers: Haji Aliyev (AZE), Bajrang (IND) (3)
Under Dog: Tevanyan(ARM) (3), Akmataliev ( the guys that pinned Bekbulatov)


74kg
Top Contender:  Sidakov(RUS) (3), Frank Chamizo (ITA) (2)
Challengers: Kyle Dake (1)
Under Dog: Kentchadze (GEO) (3)

 

86kg
Top Contender: David Taylor (3)
Challengers: Hassan Yazdani (IRI) (1), Artur Naifnov (RUS) (2)
Under Dog: Stefan Reichmuth (SUI) (3)

 
97kg
Top Contender: Sadulaev (RUS) (1)
Challengers: Snyder (USA) (3), Mohammadian (IRI) (2), Sharifov (AZE)
Under Dog: Saritov (ROU) (3), Ibragimov (UZB)
 

125kg
Top Contender:  Taha Akgul (1)
Challengers: Geno (3), Zare (2)
Under Dog: Gable Steveson (3)

Sorry ff but your prediction at 86 kg isn't going to happen.  Yazdani and Naifinov are on the same side of the bracket.  Your other predictions are still possible but a lot of that could change depending how the random draws go.  So much depends on where guys land in the bracket it is very hard to make predictions.  For instance the only way your 125 kg prediction can come true at 125 kg is if Zare is drawn into Geno's side of the bracket while Gable is drawn into Taha's side.

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3 hours ago, lu1979 said:

Sorry ff but your prediction at 86 kg isn't going to happen.  Yazdani and Naifinov are on the same side of the bracket.  Your other predictions are still possible but a lot of that could change depending how the random draws go.  So much depends on where guys land in the bracket it is very hard to make predictions.  For instance the only way your 125 kg prediction can come true at 125 kg is if Zare is drawn into Geno's side of the bracket while Gable is drawn into Taha's side.

Ofcourse everything above I mentioned depends on draw. I considered the fact the top-4 are seeded and 1,4 on one side and 2,3 on the other side. 

Regarding 86kg, I thought Naifnov is outside of top-4, my bad. He is actually the 4th seed. In that case, my take on 86 is as follows 

Hassan - Gold

If DT draws into same side as Hassan and Naifnov, then DT Bronze and Naifnov no medal. If not, DT Silver.

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Is Dake really that much of a favorite here?  

 

He beat a 32-year-old Burroughs twice, which is, of course, a good win.  But Burroughs even looked slower, but not great in 2019.  He even looked awful against Chamizo a few weeks prior to the trials.  He is no longer explosive and is quite predictable.  His last 'prime' year was in 2018 imo, after his historic 2017 run.  My main point that I am trying to make here is that he is no longer the biggest, nor athletic threat in the sport right now.

 

Also, Dake wrestled at 79kg.  He should have a strength advantage, but he struggled with Chamizo (although this was a while ago), and the competition at 79kg is less than great.  

 

Sidakov is longer; faster; wrestled and beat better competition; has a wide array of attacks and is one of the best hand-fighters in the sport.  He lost to Tsabolov last year which was bad, but I am sure he has learned from it - returning and defeating no.2 in Russia, Razambek Zhamalov.  

 

I think Sidakov will win gold, but I cannot say it with vehemence, because I have no idea.  

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1 hour ago, Silhouette94 said:

Is Dake really that much of a favorite here?  

 

He beat a 32-year-old Burroughs twice, which is, of course, a good win.  But Burroughs even looked slower, but not great in 2019.  He even looked awful against Chamizo a few weeks prior to the trials.  He is no longer explosive and is quite predictable.  His last 'prime' year was in 2018 imo, after his historic 2017 run.  My main point that I am trying to make here is that he is no longer the biggest, nor athletic threat in the sport right now.

 

Also, Dake wrestled at 79kg.  He should have a strength advantage, but he struggled with Chamizo (although this was a while ago), and the competition at 79kg is less than great.  

 

Sidakov is longer; faster; wrestled and beat better competition; has a wide array of attacks and is one of the best hand-fighters in the sport.  He lost to Tsabolov last year which was bad, but I am sure he has learned from it - returning and defeating no.2 in Russia, Razambek Zhamalov.  

 

I think Sidakov will win gold, but I cannot say it with vehemence, because I have no idea.  

On what basis can you say that JB did not "look great" in 2019 - He lost to Sidakov on a last second push out and then won Bronze.  Credit to the young Russian for pulling out the win but JB was right there.  I would not say that Dake is the favorite although many of us US fans think he can win Gold.  Sidikov enters as the favorite with Dake and Chamizo close behind as the next most likely winners.

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On 6/28/2021 at 6:31 PM, treep2000 said:

86 - Taylor over Yazdani. This time it's a nail biter and DT gets a last second takedown in the last 20 seconds to ice it.

 

 

Is it a last second TD if he scores it with 20 second to go?

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On 6/30/2021 at 4:26 PM, The Genius said:

Zare has beaten Geno, Parviz Hadi, Makhov, Rakhimov (who teched Gable when they last wrestled in 2019) and Gwiz (multiple times) and medalled at several international tournaments (Youth Olympic Silver, World Junior Silver, U23 Gold, won 2020 Matteo Pelicone and recent Polish tournament).  By any metric he is more accomplished. 

False.

Steveson sonned Parris.  Parris sonned Zare.

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10 hours ago, nhs67 said:

False.

Steveson sonned Parris.  Parris sonned Zare.

Well, couple problems with that. 1 being that Zare vs Parris and Parris vs Stevenson were two different styles. Using round robin results isn’t always that great, particularly when they’re not even in the same style. But if you do want to use that type of math, it’s even mentioned in the post you quoted the Gable was teched by the Russian whom Zare beat. All in the same style. Not too mention a couple Senior level golds and win over a multiple time world champ, neither of which Gable has. 
Not really sure what you’re trying to argue here  

 

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1 hour ago, Lurker said:

Well, couple problems with that. 1 being that Zare vs Parris and Parris vs Stevenson were two different styles. Using round robin results isn’t always that great, particularly when they’re not even in the same style. But if you do want to use that type of math, it’s even mentioned in the post you quoted the Gable was teched by the Russian whom Zare beat. All in the same style. Not too mention a couple Senior level golds and win over a multiple time world champ, neither of which Gable has. 
Not really sure what you’re trying to argue here  

 

This hurts me to say this.  On a cellular level:

Steveson.  Sonned.  Parris.  Sonned.  Zare.

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18 hours ago, GoNotQuietly said:

I now predict that at least one of my picks to win will get Covid in the Olympic village


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hold up who is taking Suriano as their training partner?!

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