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Odds for Freestyle Olympics

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33 minutes ago, amd329 said:

Lot's of movement on some of these odds. 

1. Dake down from +250 to win to +180.  Sidakov is now the favorite at +175.  Kaisinov moved to +250.  

2. Gable down from +1100 to win to +500.  Gable -225 to place top 4 now.  

3. Geno P up from +100 to +175.  Taha Akgul stays at +125. 

4. Taylor moved from +130 to +100.  Yazdani moved from +100 to +125 

Gable has moved from +500 to +300 to win. Momentum beginning to pick up. 

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45 minutes ago, amd329 said:

Lot's of movement on some of these odds. 

1. Dake down from +250 to win to +180.  Sidakov is now the favorite at +175.  Kaisinov moved to +250.  

2. Gable down from +1100 to win to +500.  Gable -225 to place top 4 now.  

3. Geno P up from +100 to +175.  Taha Akgul stays at +125. 

4. Taylor moved from +130 to +100.  Yazdani moved from +100 to +125 

Where are you getting these odds-- and do they take bets?

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The odds are on this page:

https://pa.betrivers.com/?page=sportsbook&l=RiversPittsburgh&group=1000093179&type=futures#home

Click the arrow next to Soccer to collapse it and then scroll down to wrestling. You have to be in PA to use that specific site, but the top left of the screen has options for a few other states, and some of them also have the wrestling odds. 

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1 hour ago, Lurker said:

Totally agree with what you are saying here.  But have to add a couple things; we do see alot of guys that come in unknown, and medal right off the bat, and the evidence that its largely because they are unknown is that they don't medal again.  (Brandon Eggum for example).  The other thing is that I don't know Gable is unknown, being a Cadet World Champ, and then a Junior world Champ while still a Cadet.  With video resources being what they are today, you can guarantee with his pedigree and the noise he has made over the past year, they will have the video running on him.  I don't think he is going to fit into this unknown medalist category.  If he wins, its because he is that good.  

Then again, to counter my counter......video is one thing, getting your hands on them is another.   It's definitely extremely interesting going into the games.

Did Eggum ever make a team again?  Did he even make THAT team?  (Wasn't he a sub for Cael?)

There might be better examples:  Mike Zadick (although serious injury and weight issues may have contributed), Mark Coleman, etc.

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4 hours ago, AHamilton said:

Did Eggum ever make a team again?  Did he even make THAT team?  (Wasn't he a sub for Cael?)

There might be better examples:  Mike Zadick (although serious injury and weight issues may have contributed), Mark Coleman, etc.

Cael definitely opted out. It was 2001 and worlds were supposed to be in NYC but then 9/11 happened. I'm a bit fuzzy but I'm 95% certain Sanderson withdrew because by the time everything was rescheduled and relocated, it was well into folkstyle season and that was his senior year so he opted to go for 159-0 instead.

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22 hours ago, IronChef said:

Two quick NIL points.
1. Iowa and Minnesota do not have NIL laws, so there is nothing legally (or via the NCAA) prohibiting athletes in Iowa and other states like them without a law from endorsing gambling, tobacco, alcohol, porn, etc. Other states are different, and schools can set their own rules. I was unable to find a list of prohibited industries for the Hawkeyes. Minnesota's policy does prohibit certain industries like sports gambling.
2. It's an open question as to whether or not Barstool Sports is a gambling company, and each school will make their own determination.

True... but no responsible agent/lawyer/athletic department is going to advise a college kid to get involved with any of those enterprises.

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On 7/15/2021 at 12:50 AM, 152lbs said:

Is there a parlay for no US golds?  I can easily see that happening.

Dake not winning would be a significant upset. 

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8 hours ago, GoNotQuietly said:

He has to win two matches neither of which would be a significant upset if he lost.

That’s fair IMO.

Significant favorite was probably a bit too strong but I’d be surprised if Dake isn’t the favorite.

I don’t see Snyder having much of a chance at gold but with Taylor and Gable having shots at gold I’d think odds wise we are probably going to be hovering right around 1 gold. It could just as easily be 0 as it could be 2.

Cant wait for the competition. I hope everyone can stay healthy. Some of these brackets will be brutal.

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3 hours ago, wamba said:

That’s fair IMO.

Significant favorite was probably a bit too strong but I’d be surprised if Dake isn’t the favorite.

I don’t see Snyder having much of a chance at gold but with Taylor and Gable having shots at gold I’d think odds wise we are probably going to be hovering right around 1 gold. It could just as easily be 0 as it could be 2.

Cant wait for the competition. I hope everyone can stay healthy. Some of these brackets will be brutal.

Sidakov is a two-time champ at the actual weight, and he won his golds over tougher competition than Dake’s competition at 79kg. Dake will also have to go through both Chamizo and Sidakov to win gold, whereas Sidakov has a 50% shot to only face one of them. So I’m not following the logic that says that Dake is the favorite. 

Edited by Katie

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I think Katie was right with Dake around 25%. Id put Taylor in the 40s, Snyder and Gable in the teens, and Gilman below 5% based on the amount of people they will face that could beat them and subtracting injury/upset risk.

1 guy has a good shot to beat Taylor
2 guys can take Dake
At least 2-3 guys can take Snyder and Gable
Gilman could lose to a bunch


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1 hour ago, GoNotQuietly said:

I think Katie was right with Dake around 25%. Id put Taylor in the 40s, Snyder and Gable in the teens, and Gilman below 5% based on the amount of people they will face that could beat them and subtracting injury/upset risk.

1 guy has a good shot to beat Taylor
2 guys can take Dake
At least 2-3 guys can take Snyder and Gable
Gilman could lose to a bunch


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I think at least one other guy could beat Dake at 74. Kentchadze has had  4-4 and 2-2  loses to Chamizo and Sidakov. A solid quality wrestler like that in the field can pull off an upset. 

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I think at least one other guy could beat Dake at 74. Kentchadze has had  4-4 and 2-2  loses to Chamizo and Sidakov. A solid quality wrestler like that in the field can pull off an upset. 

True, and who knows who can have a career-day and upset everyone. My odds are probably a bit high, statistically, even if they are much lower than others here.


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Susaki at +250 in women’s 50kg is essentially free money in my mind. She has never lost to a non-Japanese opponent, and she’s not even the favorite in these odds. She did, however, beat the favorite 10-0 in the 2018 world finals.

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11 hours ago, Katie said:

Sidakov is a two-time champ at the actual weight, and he won his golds over tougher competition than Dake’s competition at 79kg. Dake will also have to go through both Chamizo and Sidakov to win gold, whereas Sidakov has a 50% shot to only face one of them. So I’m not following the logic that says that Dake is the favorite. 

Dake has to go through Chamizo and Sidakov? 

If so I understand him becoming less likely to win.

I may be in the minority but I don’t see Chamizo beating Dake. Especially now that Dake has wrestled him before as he often makes such great adjustments.

Sidakov is obviously a great wrestler and will be tough. 

What Dake has in his favor is that he has shown more dominance than Sidakov/Chamizo in the last two years and he is arguably wrestling at his ideal weight class. 

I just wish Dake had wrestled Sidakov previously because his adjustments can really tip the scale in his favor.

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On 7/15/2021 at 6:51 PM, IronChef said:

Two quick NIL points.
1. Iowa and Minnesota do not have NIL laws, so there is nothing legally (or via the NCAA) prohibiting athletes in Iowa and other states like them without a law from endorsing gambling, tobacco, alcohol, porn, etc. Other states are different, and schools can set their own rules. I was unable to find a list of prohibited industries for the Hawkeyes. Minnesota's policy does prohibit certain industries like sports gambling.
2. It's an open question as to whether or not Barstool Sports is a gambling company, and each school will make their own determination.

How is Barstool not a gambling company?  They are owned by a casino and have a sports book.  

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How is Barstool not a gambling company?  They are owned by a casino and have a sports book.  

Penn National Gaming owns a piece of Barstool Sports and uses the Barstool name for the Barstool Sportsbook. I'm not saying Barstool Sports is or isn't a gambling company, just that it is an open question due to the nature of their ownership. One D2 school has come out and directly told their athletes not to get involved with Barstool, but that's just one school.

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2 hours ago, IronChef said:


Penn National Gaming owns a piece of Barstool Sports and uses the Barstool name for the Barstool Sportsbook. I'm not saying Barstool Sports is or isn't a gambling company, just that it is an open question due to the nature of their ownership. One D2 school has come out and directly told their athletes not to get involved with Barstool, but that's just one school.

 

 

 

 

Barstool Sports itself is an organization that holds on both sides of the umbrella - owned above by Chernin Group (entertainment and marketing) and Penn National Gaming (sportsbook) among others, owns Barstool Athletes Inc. and Barstool Sportsbook and Barstool Fund below.

This was the pandora's box that has always been a concern once gambling was opened up. The US, and the globe for that matter, are filled with conglomerates and not mom n' pop small businesses which makes it extremely complex from a legal perspective to unravel - this isn't a case of "I know it when I see it." As an example Danaher and Ferrero have ties to gambling, chocolate, water, chips, soda, etc; Marriot has ties to gambling and pornography among others. So let me ask a (very) hypothetical to expand on that ideology as a use case:

Ex 1) Would anyone bat an eye if an NCAA champ shoots a double commercial where he is staying at a Marriot hotel and eating a Nestle Crunch candy bar?

Ex 2) What if an NCAA champ does a porno shoot with Paul Donahoe to promote Stellaris Casino?

I ask because both are examples of legal professional functions of the same parent organization - do you see how it is hard to unravel legally rather than from a personal ethical or moral perspective?

So the point of using that rather extreme example is to highlight that because Barstool Athletes Inc. and Barstool Sportsbook are unique legal organizations among others that simply fall under the same conglomerate vertical then any amateur athlete that is affiliated with only Barstool Athletes Inc. is free and clear from a legal perspective. Additionally, federal law supersedes state law until a judge explicitly states otherwise so Massachusetts is already running the legal gamut to sort out NIL compliance. Is it icky and sticky? Not yet. Will it be soon? Ohhh buddy you betcha. But this is a direct consequence of the growing pains of finally relenting on amateurism decades too late in the instant connectivity age of hypermarketing and corporate consolidation.

 

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Might be smart to bet on some medium to long shots — taking the chance that some clear front runners pop positive for Covid.  Articles are coming out that it’s creeping into the village.  May really disrupt things and throw a big curveball into betting.

Anyone know if there are Covid exclusions?  Meaning a positive Covid test, in some manner, would somehow neuter the bet.

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16 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

Barstool Sports itself is an organization that holds on both sides of the umbrella - owned above by Chernin Group (entertainment and marketing) and Penn National Gaming (sportsbook) among others, owns Barstool Athletes Inc. and Barstool Sportsbook and Barstool Fund below.

This was the pandora's box that has always been a concern once gambling was opened up. The US, and the globe for that matter, are filled with conglomerates and not mom n' pop small businesses which makes it extremely complex from a legal perspective to unravel - this isn't a case of "I know it when I see it." As an example Danaher and Ferrero have ties to gambling, chocolate, water, chips, soda, etc; Marriot has ties to gambling and pornography among others. So let me ask a (very) hypothetical to expand on that ideology as a use case:

Ex 1) Would anyone bat an eye if an NCAA champ shoots a double commercial where he is staying at a Marriot hotel and eating a Nestle Crunch candy bar?

Ex 2) What if an NCAA champ does a porno shoot with Paul Donahoe to promote Stellaris Casino?

I ask because both are examples of legal professional functions of the same parent organization - do you see how it is hard to unravel legally rather than from a personal ethical or moral perspective?

So the point of using that rather extreme example is to highlight that because Barstool Athletes Inc. and Barstool Sportsbook are unique legal organizations among others that simply fall under the same conglomerate vertical then any amateur athlete that is affiliated with only Barstool Athletes Inc. is free and clear from a legal perspective. Additionally, federal law supersedes state law until a judge explicitly states otherwise so Massachusetts is already running the legal gamut to sort out NIL compliance. Is it icky and sticky? Not yet. Will it be soon? Ohhh buddy you betcha. But this is a direct consequence of the growing pains of finally relenting on amateurism decades too late in the instant connectivity age of hypermarketing and corporate consolidation.

 

If a casino can just create a new legal entity and the rule no longer applies, it defeats the purpose of even having the rule. Barstool sports is obviously heavily involved in sports betting, and Penn will soon have a controlling stake in the company. It seems like a good idea for athletes to stay far away from them. 
 

It’s a clear conflict of interest if the sportsbook is sponsoring the athletes on whom bets are being placed. 

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