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Predictions on World Team

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On 8/8/2021 at 10:21 AM, NJDan said:

Gable really has nothing to gain by wrestling at Worlds-- assuming he is focused on his marketablity. A lifer like DT will still want a world title.  

Worlds is a trap this year for all Olympic champs. If you win, you gain nothing; if you lose, your Olympic gold medal is invalidated. I’m curious how many will show up and at what weight class. I bet every silver medalist shows up though.

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What is the process for the selecting the world's team for the US?

Do the Olympic medalists get the right of first refusal?  When are the trials for the weights for those weights that there is a not someone pre-selected, and how many get to compete?

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34 minutes ago, irani said:

What is the process for the selecting the world's team for the US?

Do the Olympic medalists get the right of first refusal?  When are the trials for the weights for those weights that there is a not someone pre-selected, and how many get to compete?

Medalists get an auto spot if they stay at the same weight. Here are the full selection procedures

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what is everyone's reasoning for not taking Green at 70KG, that's his weight. If healthy i'll take him. Has Pantaleo ever beaten any of our top guys like Green?

i also believe JB would never be a full size 86 guy, he's not big enough.

 

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2 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

Worlds is a trap this year for all Olympic champs. If you win, you gain nothing; if you lose, your Olympic gold medal is invalidated. I’m curious how many will show up and at what weight class. I bet every silver medalist shows up though.

This is a horrible mentality.

You can be the best in the world one weekend. and not another a few months later. what's with the fragility?

 

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9 minutes ago, Husker_Du said:

This is a horrible mentality.

You can be the best in the world one weekend. and not another a few months later. what's with the fragility?

 

None for me I'm not an olympic champ. I'm an internet chump. Surely you know this by now!

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1 hour ago, DuckFor2 said:

i also believe JB would never be a full size 86 guy, he's not big enough.

Probably not, but he could be over 86 kg and retain his athletic advantage to make up for the size he gives up. Dake proved that, even weighing in at 183 and looking chubby, he could compete at the highest level at 86 kg. And it's not like DT owned JB when they met, even if it was an exhibition. JB gave up at least 10 lbs then, I'd say. I think JB's quickness would offset the weight he gives up. Whether he can be effective not having an edge in strength and power is a different matter, and I'm not sure. I think he can pull it off. I do think his days of ruling the world at 74 kg after a deep cut are over, even if he gets past Dake.

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3 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

Worlds is a trap this year for all Olympic champs. If you win, you gain nothing; if you lose, your Olympic gold medal is invalidated. I’m curious how many will show up and at what weight class. I bet every silver medalist shows up though.

Bingo.  I've heard there will be a smelter matside to melt down and repurpose gold medals from any of these fraudulent "Olympic Champions" that happen to lose at worlds this year.  Same reason Tom Brady is only a 1x Super Bowl champion.  Each of his titles was invalidated when he inevitably lost in following years.  

This is just insane logic.  Olympic Gold Medalist is something that can't be taken away (ex. PEDs).  These men and women have very limited windows to compete at their peaks.  For those that care about their legacies, it's about stacking up their accomplishments and consistently measuring themselves against the best.  You don't get many opportunities to do so.  

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1 hour ago, steamboat_charlie v2 said:

Bingo.  I've heard there will be a smelter matside to melt down and repurpose gold medals from any of these fraudulent "Olympic Champions" that happen to lose at worlds this year.  Same reason Tom Brady is only a 1x Super Bowl champion.  Each of his titles was invalidated when he inevitably lost in following years.  

This is just insane logic.  Olympic Gold Medalist is something that can't be taken away (ex. PEDs).  These men and women have very limited windows to compete at their peaks.  For those that care about their legacies, it's about stacking up their accomplishments and consistently measuring themselves against the best.  You don't get many opportunities to do so.  

TheMat and twitter are going to be full of takes saying exactly what I referenced. I didn't say they are the correct take [they aren't but you and Willie are correct and I agree with you fwiw] but it's going to happen. It's going to be even worse down the road with revisionist history. Do you feel that I am incorrect to have this opinion?

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14 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

TheMat and twitter are going to be full of takes saying exactly what I referenced. I didn't say they are the correct take [they aren't but you and Willie are correct and I agree with you fwiw] but it's going to happen. It's going to be even worse down the road with revisionist history. Do you feel that I am incorrect to have this opinion?

I suspect you are right in some cases and wrong in others. If a guy is thinking about his marketability (Gable, perhaps) he might avoid the worlds for fear that a loss will devalue his Gold medal at least in the minds of some. But if you are a wrestling savant (like Taylor) you will probably go (assuming you are healthy and all that).

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1 hour ago, NJDan said:

I suspect you are right in some cases and wrong in others. If a guy is thinking about his marketability (Gable, perhaps) he might avoid the worlds for fear that a loss will devalue his Gold medal at least in the minds of some. But if you are a wrestling savant (like Taylor) you will probably go (assuming you are healthy and all that).

Agreed on all fronts. My thinking…

Uguev will probably sit out

Otoguro is 50/50 and will be so busy with home country promotions and such you have to wonder how he will do if he shows up

Sidakov will sit out

Taylor has already committed unless he wants to let Bo go for a world title

Sadulaev will sit out

Gable will probably sit out, depends on what he decides to do with his near term future

 

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18 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Agreed on all fronts. My thinking…

Uguev will probably sit out

Otoguro is 50/50 and will be so busy with home country promotions and such you have to wonder how he will do if he shows up

Sidakov will sit out

Taylor has already committed unless he wants to let Bo go for a world title

Sadulaev will sit out

Gable will probably sit out, depends on what he decides to do with his near term future

 

Why do you think all the Russians are sitting out?

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57:  Gilman.  For now, and the foreseeable future.  The version of Gilman we saw at the Olympics is by far the best version of himself.  Everyone keeps saying Spencer Lee is the next best option at 57kg, and although I don't disagree given his past achievements, things can change in hurry when the physical tools become suspect.  I would not put Spencer Lee on the list until we see him in action again.  

61:  A 61kg Suriano could be incredible.  If not Nicky Pushups, I'm calling RBY.

65:  Yianni.  He had a tough tourney the last time out, but has the skills and the ability to hang with the international crowd, as evidenced by his wins and close bouts with those he's met. 

70kg:  Carr.  I think this is a more ideal weight for him, and can help him exploit his skillset.  74kg is Dake's for now, and having him at 70kg is a nice spot to be in.  If not Carr, it's Pantaleo, then Green/Deakin.  

74kg:  Dake, as evidenced above

79kg:  JB.  

86kg:  Taylor. 

92kg:  I'm in the camp that right now, it is 50/50 with Cox/Moore.  There is evidence of suspect results with Cox in Poland, and Moore has been improving.  They haven't really been that far apart previously, and now, Moore is #2 at 97kg behind Snyder.  Sure, the gap there may be significant, but I think it's also partly due to familiarity and a "big brother" type situation where Moore learned everything he knows from Snyder.  Put him on the mat with others, and he's always in the bout, and always pushing forward, looking for the takedown, and getting them.  

97kg:  Snyder.  If Snyder bows out... then it's Moore's to lose.

125kg:  Gable.  If Gable bows out... then it's a dogfight between Parris, Gwiz, and Kerkvliet.  I'm excited to see a truly healthy Kerkvliet (if that day ever comes).  

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Japan's team was already announced months ago for Norway. Otoguro won't be there, or any of their Olympians. Completely new team. Their 65kg guy for worlds in Norway was a very dominant junior world champ in 2019, so that will be interesting to see how he does. 

Edited by Shiraz123

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3 minutes ago, Shiraz123 said:

Japan's team was already announced months ago for Norway. Otoguro won't be there, or any of their Olympians. Completely new team. Their 65kg guy in Norway was a very dominant junior world champ in 2019, so that will be interesting to see how he does. 

So who's going 57 for Japan and do they have enough time to make weight? Only 53 days left to make the descent.

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4 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

So who's going 57 for Japan and do they have enough time to make weight? Only 53 days left to make the descent.

If I remember the list right I am pretty sure it's Abe. He beat Arujau in the 2019 junior world final. Hopefully Higuchi isn't managing his weight cut. 

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20 hours ago, wrestlingnerd said:

Probably not, but he could be over 86 kg and retain his athletic advantage to make up for the size he gives up . . . I think JB's quickness would offset the weight he gives up. Whether he can be effective not having an edge in strength and power is a different matter,

Man, this stuff never goes away. 

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