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Housebuye

If the 2022 title doesn’t go to Iowa or PSU, who wins it?

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Which team is best poised for a team race upset to take the title?
  
I think Cornell and ASU with their best possible performance could do it, if things fall their way. 
  
Cornell has 2 title contenders and 3 extremely likely AAs, which itself isn’t that rare. But, all 7 other weights have guys who could AA. Most are ranked going into the season. With a good performance from a few borderline top 8 guys, and maybe a Greg D breaking through, they could take it. 
 

ASU is in a position to take it too. They have 6 AAs, Norfleet, and solid prospects at 2/3 other weights. They will qualify at least 8. 

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24 minutes ago, gobraves101905 said:

3 decisions and a major. His last 3 wins were by 5 points total. He had a great run. Suriano scores noticeably more team points. 

Since when was Suriano a big points scorer?  He probably scored the least of all the champs the year he won it...

Edit: Checked

Lee, Nolf, Valencia, Nickal, and Cassar all scored more that year at NCAAs.  He did outscore Johnny D, Shnaulty, Lewis and Foster all scored less.

Edit #2: Suriano would need to up his bonus point output to 'noticeably' improve.  He isn't beating Lee at 125, so 2nd is his ceiling there(again).

Edited by nhs67

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1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

Since when was Suriano a big points scorer?  He probably scored the least of all the champs the year he won it...

Edit: Checked

Lee, Nolf, Valencia, Nickal, and Cassar all scored more that year at NCAAs.  He did outscore Johnny D, Shnaulty, Lewis and Foster all scored less.

Edit #2: Suriano would need to up his bonus point output to 'noticeably' improve.  He isn't beating Lee at 125, so 2nd is his ceiling there(again).

Do you have any other news from 3 years ago you want to report? 

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16 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Coulda just said who gets third.

Nope. Different calculation. 
  
Essentially everyone acknowledges that PSU or Iowa will win. For anyone else to, those teams have to falter. For example, who benefits the most if Spencer Lee is injured/can’t perform up to his abilities? That probably helps Cornell a bunch. I don’t think anyone can touch Vito besides Spencer (unless Suriano comes back). 

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23 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

Nope. Different calculation. 
  
Essentially everyone acknowledges that PSU or Iowa will win. For anyone else to, those teams have to falter. For example, who benefits the most if Spencer Lee is injured/can’t perform up to his abilities? That probably helps Cornell a bunch. I don’t think anyone can touch Vito besides Spencer (unless Suriano comes back). 

So PSU wins, Iowa gets second. And Cornell gets...?

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34 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

So PSU wins, Iowa gets second. And Cornell gets...?

If PSU or Iowa wins, Cornell doesn’t win. I know that is a tough concept to grasp. 
 

the question is if PSU and Iowa falter, who can beat them? 

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On 9/10/2021 at 9:31 PM, nhs67 said:

I mean... they took 4th with a 2nd place showing at 125 already...

Yeah but they only had a 6th place showing at 133 the weight class Suriano suriano last wrestled at NCAA match and has an NCAA title.  There is a difference of 10 placement points between 6th place and 1st at NCAAs.  Also McGee might be able to move up to 141 and earn some team points where they scored 0 last year.  With Parco, a 6th place finished for Fresno State at 149 last year, coming in, Suriano at 133 could give ASU a returning AA at every weight from 125-165.

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I like the Michigan pick, but every year recently they were supposed to be amazing and something always happened s to their lineup before NCAAs. They have the right folks if they show up healthy at NCAAs. Half of their lineup has already AAd

Edited by Housebuye

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2 hours ago, Fishbane said:

Yeah but they only had a 6th place showing at 133 the weight class Suriano suriano last wrestled at NCAA match and has an NCAA title.  There is a difference of 10 placement points between 6th place and 1st at NCAAs.  Also McGee might be able to move up to 141 and earn some team points where they scored 0 last year.  With Parco, a 6th place finished for Fresno State at 149 last year, coming in, Suriano at 133 could give ASU a returning AA at every weight from 125-165.

Sorryano is not going 133, in my opinion.  He has stated his intention to stay as close to 57kg as humanly possible for the foreseeable future.  His focus in the international style and 57kg in that style.

So then the question you get is who do you throw at 133 and how much can they improve on points?  I don't think they do or can.

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1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

Sorryano is not going 133, in my opinion.  He has stated his intention to stay as close to 57kg as humanly possible for the foreseeable future.  His focus in the international style and 57kg in that style.

So then the question you get is who do you throw at 133 and how much can they improve on points?  I don't think they do or can.

Did he wrestle undersized for 61kg this past weekend? I wouldn't be surprised to see him at 133 if that makes more sense where he enrolls.  The goal of the internaional styles is the Olympics and that's 4 years out.  His NCAA participation will be a single semester (3 mo of wrestling), so not much more time than he would have been up at 61kg if he won this past weekend. 

With Suriano at 125 or 133 or without him ASU stands to be improved at 125-141.  Courtney, Suriano, McGee or Suriano, Courtney, McGee is better than Courtney, McGee, Chlebove.  They also have the number 1 overall recuit, Richard Figueroa, who could wrestle one of those weights.  They got 29 team points from these weights last year.  Any combination of those 4 could improve that, though the return of the Ivies make it difficult.  With Suriano I would say they definitely improve it as he has scored at least 20 team points in both NCAA tournaments he's entered.  Without him it's more difficult, but possible. Three mid AAs 5/6 range would do it.

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47 minutes ago, Fishbane said:

Did he wrestle undersized for 61kg this past weekend? I wouldn't be surprised to see him at 133 if that makes more sense where he enrolls.  The goal of the internaional styles is the Olympics and that's 4 years out.  His NCAA participation will be a single semester (3 mo of wrestling), so not much more time than he would have been up at 61kg if he won this past weekend. 

With Suriano at 125 or 133 or without him ASU stands to be improved at 125-141.  Courtney, Suriano, McGee or Suriano, Courtney, McGee is better than Courtney, McGee, Chlebove.  They also have the number 1 overall recuit, Richard Figueroa, who could wrestle one of those weights.  They got 29 team points from these weights last year.  Any combination of those 4 could improve that, though the return of the Ivies make it difficult.  With Suriano I would say they definitely improve it as he has scored at least 20 team points in both NCAA tournaments he's entered.  Without him it's more difficult, but possible. Three mid AAs 5/6 range would do it.

You aren't understanding something: Nicky Pushups has himself stated that he doesn't intend to wrestle anything except 57kg.  He only went 61kg because he wasn't allowed to enter 57kg.  So even at 125, how does he score more points there than what they already got last year?  He isn't the favorite at 125.  His ceiling is the same exact as what they got out of Courtney.  Add in that Ivies are back, as you said.  I wouldn't favor him over Arujau or Glory at this point.  Meaning Courtney had a better chance at last years NCAA's to get high placement points than Pushups will at this year's NCAAs.

Before you try to argue for him some more, I am with you.  I want him at 57 (125) and I want him to succeed.  Thinking he is adding 10+ points to that score for Arizona State?  That just doesn't add up.  There aren't 10 points to gain at 125.  133 is insanely deep, as well.  He is just as likely to pull a Marinelli as he is win it.  I mean that as no offense meant towards Suriano, just as a compliment to the weight.  It is DEEP.  Especially considering that he has been attempting to keep his weight as close to 57 as he can.  You can't argue that it doesn't show, either.  Comparing a side-by-side of his 1st place run at 2019's 133 to this last weekend and it looked like Skeletor VS Beastman, with WTT 61kg version being Skeletor.

Him focusing on 57 for the foreseeable is something he has said, not something that myself or anyone else on this board has fabricated out of thin air.  He isn't going for 61 in the non-Oly years.  He is going for 57.

IF he does wrestle, it'll be 125.  Going off of what he has been vocal about it is more likely he doesn't wrestle than he goes 133.  That is my deductive opinion based off what he has told us via various media outlets.

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2 hours ago, nhs67 said:

You aren't understanding something: Nicky Pushups has himself stated that he doesn't intend to wrestle anything except 57kg. 

Suriano has said that NIL has increased his interest in  trying to get a second NCAA title.  57kg is not an NCAA weight class.  Many guys who compete internationally at 57kg compete at 125lbs collegiately, but some go 133.  I don't see how his intention to wrestle at 57kg internationally decides his NCAA weight especially when he hasn't picked a school.  Micic wrestled 133 collegiately whilst competing at 57kg internationally. Daton Fix has also done it with the exception of the one tournament last weekend at which Suriano also wrestled 61kg.  I believe Arujau was going to do this at Cornell before losing a wrestleoff to Chaz Tucker in 2018.  Now that Greg D is in Ithaca gotta think the plan is Greg D. at 125 and Vito at 133.  Regarldless of where Suriano and Vito collegiately this year I expect to see them at 57kg in April for the Senior Nationals.

You're missing the big picture.  Suriano is better than Figueroa, Courtney, and McGee.  I'd bet him to outperform any one of them at NCAAs next year at either 125 or 133.  Even if he is not the favorite his ceiling is champ.  He's won it before and wasn't the favorite to win it then either.  He has literally scored 11 more points than McGee at nationals before.  Suriano w wrestling one of the weights allows on of the others to wrestle 141 where they scored 0.  So he doesn't even have to outscore one by 10 to help the team buy 10 points because anything scored at 141 is an improvement.  Ideally I think he fits in at 133 and then let a bulked up McGee wrestle off with a sucked out Vasquez if he can realy make 141.  The fact that this would be a late/second semester proposition it is best to not have two guys bump.  Late season weight changes didn't work well for OSU a fwe years back.

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On 9/10/2021 at 8:43 PM, gobraves101905 said:

ASUs chances go way up if Suriano wrestles there. 

FWIW, the poster (not on this forum) who first broke the rumor that Suriano was leaving PSU has stated that if Suriano comes back he's going back to PSU.  He also stated that Suriano most likely is not going to wrestle in college again and will move on from folkstyle.  He's been a pretty reliable source...And no it's not Pat Mineo

Edited by portajohn

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