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If the 2022 title doesn’t go to Iowa or PSU, who wins it?

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1 hour ago, Fishbane said:

Suriano has said that NIL has increased his interest in  trying to get a second NCAA title.  57kg is not an NCAA weight class.  Many guys who compete internationally at 57kg compete at 125lbs collegiately, but some go 133.  I don't see how his intention to wrestle at 57kg internationally decides his NCAA weight especially when he hasn't picked a school.  Micic wrestled 133 collegiately whilst competing at 57kg internationally. Daton Fix has also done it with the exception of the one tournament last weekend at which Suriano also wrestled 61kg.  I believe Arujau was going to do this at Cornell before losing a wrestleoff to Chaz Tucker in 2018.  Now that Greg D is in Ithaca gotta think the plan is Greg D. at 125 and Vito at 133.  Regarldless of where Suriano and Vito collegiately this year I expect to see them at 57kg in April for the Senior Nationals.

You're missing the big picture.  Suriano is better than Figueroa, Courtney, and McGee.  I'd bet him to outperform any one of them at NCAAs next year at either 125 or 133.  Even if he is not the favorite his ceiling is champ.  He's won it before and wasn't the favorite to win it then either.  He has literally scored 11 more points than McGee at nationals before.  Suriano w wrestling one of the weights allows on of the others to wrestle 141 where they scored 0.  So he doesn't even have to outscore one by 10 to help the team buy 10 points because anything scored at 141 is an improvement.  Ideally I think he fits in at 133 and then let a bulked up McGee wrestle off with a sucked out Vasquez if he can realy make 141.  The fact that this would be a late/second semester proposition it is best to not have two guys bump.  Late season weight changes didn't work well for OSU a fwe years back.

Big picture doesn't matter with Suriano.  He has proven time and time again... And if it does... Why not believe the words from the camel's mouth himself?  Suriano said he isn't going to focus anything but 57kg... Which is what? 125.6lbs.  He had no choice with a chip om his shoulder to wrestle 61 this last weekend.  He had something to prove (and missed hard).

Get with it, man.

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11 hours ago, Fishbane said:

, Suriano at 133 could give ASU a returning AA at every weight from 125-165.

There are only two reasons Suriano is considering on coming back for A) Money B) To beat Spencer Lee.  He's not wrestling 133

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7 minutes ago, portajohn said:

There are only two reasons Suriano is considering on coming back for A) Money B) To beat Spencer Lee.  He's not wrestling 133

He doesn't have to come back to beat Spencer Lee.  He can find him on the senior level at 57kg.  No idea what his motivation might be, but a team championship matters to some and Suriano has been linked in a move back to PSU too.

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Anything other than 133 just doesn't make sense for ASU.  Which is why I am not surprised there are rumblings of him being at PSU if he were to go.  PSU DESPERATELY needs a 125lber.  ASU has a returning Finalist that can actually wrestle the entire season.  Meanwhile, do we even know if Suriano can pull down to 125 and be effective for a College season?  Even knowing that it would be a Winter semester hybrid season, he would still need to make the weight several times and it would blow up ASU's dual meet season in the process.  

I have a hard time believing Zeke wanted to blow up his line up to have Suriano for a couple months on the back end where the return isn't guaranteed to be much higher than with Courtney back at 125.  So, if Suriano was willing to go 133, I think he would already be part of ASU's lineup!

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So, back to the original topic at hand:

 

It basically comes down to which other teams can score 100+, because even if Iowa and PSU were to falther, their faltering won't put them below 100 or so.

With that in mind, here are the teams I think at least have a chance to get into the 100's, with lineups based on what Wrestlestat.com currently has:

1.) Michigan-A TON hinges on Micic and Myles Amine wrestling.  Still, Parris is , damn near a lock to make the Finals, Brucki could make the finals and Massa is a very strong mid level AA.  Add on that Cameron Amine, Storr and Lewan are strong AA candidates and you have 6 strong AA chances besides Micic and Myles.  Hell, even Medley could sneak onto the podium.  The Stars would need to align just right, but I think they would have the best chance to score 100 out of the rest.

125-Medley

133-Micic/Ragusin

141-Mattin

149-Storr

157-Lewan

165-Amine

174-Massa

184-Amine

197-Brucki

285-Parris

2.) ASU-Not having Suriano at 133 makes it a bunch harder for them since they really don't have a STRONG Finalist contender.  Still, Courtney,  McGee, Parco, Teemer(I really like him to challenge everyone if he stays at this weight) and Schultz have all placed top 6.  Valencia is a returning AA and Norfleet has shown at least Mid AA potential.  If they can get some solid point production out of 141, 174 and 184 they could sneak into the 100ish range.

125-Courtney

133-McGee

141-Chlebove/Vasquez

149-Parco

157-Teemer

165-A. Valencia

174- C. Valencia

184-Fagen

197-Norfleet

285-Schultz

3.) Missouri-  So much potential that just hasn't quite hit their ceiling at NCAA's.  Still O'Toole, Mauller and R. Elam have proven themselves there and all the other guys have won matches at NCAA's.  Essentially, every guy in that lineup could AA without any being a major surprise.  If they could manage to get 2 or 3 guys in the Finals they have a solid chance at reaching that 100 pt. threshold.

125-Surtin

133-Schmitt

141-Hart

149-Mauller

157-Jacques

165-O-Toole

174-Mocco

184-Kent

197-Elam

285-Elam

4.) OkState-  I think a lot hinges on the health of Brock, Gfeller and Plott.  All 3 have had their performance seriously hindered due to injuries.  But, fully healthy, they are legit AA contenders.  After that you have Ferrari, Fix and Wittlake who all can definitely reach the Finals and Geer is a likely AA, while Sheets made a nice backside run to sneak onto the Podium.  285 is still a hole and 125 is probably only a couple points again, but, fully healthy, this team can score 100+.

125-Mastrogiovanni

133-Fix

141-Brock

149-Gfeller

157-Sheets

165-Wittlake

174-Plott

184-Geer

197-Ferrari

285-Harris

After that, I just don't see anyone else with the firepower to reach 100.  NCState should still be very solid and Nebraska looks pretty tough, but they just don't have enough big point scorers to get them to that necessary threshold.  Also, I would say don't sleep on tOSU, but with all the recent musical chairs, I would be surprised if they get a maximum return out of a lineup that is still very much unproven but LADEN with potential!

Here is tOSU's projected lineup since they do have a TON of yet to be proven talent:

125-Heinselman

133-Decatur

141-D'Emilio/Echemendia

149-Sasso

157-Gallagher

165-Kharchla

174-Smith

184-Romero

197-Hoffman

285-Orndorff

 

 

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23 hours ago, MSU158 said:

4.) OkState-  I think a lot hinges on the health of Brock, Gfeller and Plott.  All 3 have had their performance seriously hindered due to injuries.  But, fully healthy, they are legit AA contenders.  After that you have Ferrari, Fix and Wittlake who all can definitely reach the Finals and Geer is a likely AA, while Sheets made a nice backside run to sneak onto the Podium.  285 is still a hole and 125 is probably only a couple points again, but, fully healthy, this team can score 100+.

Pretty sure Brock said he isn't coming back, prob Hone instead.  You could replace Brock with Sheets in the list of 3, he was also seriously hampered with injury later part of season, could make a big jump if healthy. 

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On 9/16/2021 at 12:31 PM, MSU158 said:

So, back to the original topic at hand:

 

It basically comes down to which other teams can score 100+, because even if Iowa and PSU were to falther, their faltering won't put them below 100 or so.

With that in mind, here are the teams I think at least have a chance to get into the 100's, with lineups based on what Wrestlestat.com currently has:

1.) Michigan-A TON hinges on Micic and Myles Amine wrestling.  Still, Parris is , damn near a lock to make the Finals, Brucki could make the finals and Massa is a very strong mid level AA.  Add on that Cameron Amine, Storr and Lewan are strong AA candidates and you have 6 strong AA chances besides Micic and Myles.  Hell, even Medley could sneak onto the podium.  The Stars would need to align just right, but I think they would have the best chance to score 100 out of the rest.

125-Medley

133-Micic/Ragusin

141-Mattin

149-Storr

157-Lewan

165-Amine

174-Massa

184-Amine

197-Brucki

285-Parris

 

 

I was originally going to say "no one" to this thread, but I was assuming Micic wasn't coming back, so with him + Amine back as well as Brucki, I think it's fair to make Michigan a darkhorse especially if you count the Detroit factor.

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