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2 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

No, I would say he's the co-favorite with Kemerer, depending on who is the weight of course.  If Lewis, especially, is up there, I would reconsider.  But freestyle wrestlebacks don't enter into the equation for me at all.

Also have to take into account that they're teammates who have probably wrestled each other hundreds of times in the room. You get weird results between teammates all the time. 

I would still say Starocci is the favorite. At the very least 60/40 against Kemerer. He won when it mattered and is the younger guy with more room to grow. 

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29 minutes ago, IGotAPlan said:

Freestyle wrestlebacks is interesting. Say what you want about it but I feel once you step on the mat and the competitive juices flow, it's still balls to the wall. It's still top opponent vs top opponent, it's still scored and the score will be recorded no? 

Guys "mail it in" ALL THE TIME.  Hell, I would say GIlman benefited from this HUGE at the Olympics.  Top performances by top level athletes are often as much mental, if not more so, as they are physical.  Now, you can't say for certain who does and who doesn't, but that is why I said I wouldn't take the results in EITHER direction.  I would simply say the defending Champ is still the same favorite he was before WTT's.

Now, if Starocci made that same run on the winner's side of the bracket and only lost to Burroughs or Dieringer in a tight match, I would definitely have taken that as a big step in his favor!

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18 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

Guys "mail it in" ALL THE TIME.  Hell, I would say GIlman benefited from this HUGE at the Olympics.  Top performances by top level athletes are often as much mental, if not more so, as they are physical.  Now, you can't say for certain who does and who doesn't, but that is why I said I wouldn't take the results in EITHER direction.  I would simply say the defending Champ is still the same favorite he was before WTT's.

Now, if Starocci made that same run on the winner's side of the bracket and only lost to Burroughs or Dieringer in a tight match, I would definitely have taken that as a big step in his favor!

I'll give you the consolation wrestlebacks at trials. But you're telling me you think Abdullaev and Atri decided they didn't care about winning a a medal at all once it wasn't gold? 

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5 minutes ago, IGotAPlan said:

I'll give you the consolation wrestlebacks at trials. But you're telling me you think Abdullaev and Atri decided they didn't care about winning a a medal at all once it wasn't gold? 

Honestly, it happens a lot.  Hell, Terry Brands wouldn't even look at his Bronze Medal.  He, was just that much better than his competition when he won it.  

Now, I am not saying they simply didn't care.  I am just saying that MANY guys can't get themselves motivated and up for wrestle backs.  This happens a lot at NCAA's, but even more so at International competitions.  Some wrestlers just aren't mentally prepared to take a loss and then reset and bring their "A" games.  Now, I can't pigeon hole every wrestler into that category, but I watched those matches several times and they simply didn't look like they had nearly the same movement and fight in them that they did early on.  Gilman's wrestling almost assuredly had something to do with that, but I just didn't see the same wrestling against him that I saw against Uguev.  

Also, please understand that I am a big proponent of GIlman.  I have had many any argument defending him on HR since he made the switch.  I think he wrestled a great tournament and fully deserved a medal.  I am just calling it like I see it.  His backside opponents didn't have REMOTELY the same grit and determination that he did and that made more of the difference than the actual wrestling on the mat!

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29 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

Also have to take into account that they're teammates who have probably wrestled each other hundreds of times in the room. You get weird results between teammates all the time. 

I would still say Starocci is the favorite. At the very least 60/40 against Kemerer. He won when it mattered and is the younger guy with more room to grow. 

Regarding being the favorite, if Starocci's offense takes a significant step forward, sure.  Regarding room for improvement, it's possible.  We don't know what Starocci's room for improvements are.  He could be this guy all 5 years he's at Penn State.  He could jump significantly.  Typically I'll pick the more offensive wrestler unless there's some reason to believe that's not true.  Starocci could make a big jump in offense, and then he'd be a clear favorite.  The NCAA match was the aberration for Kemerer, not the rule.  Starocci could end up being a Dake or a Joe Williams type, and that's that.  Or he could be more like Mark Hall who was great, but his improvements were more incremental and on the margins.  We shall see.

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1 hour ago, IGotAPlan said:

I'll give you the consolation wrestlebacks at trials. But you're telling me you think Abdullaev and Atri decided they didn't care about winning a a medal at all once it wasn't gold? 

I wouldn't say didn't care. I think they were dead off the scale, especially abdullaev. That was not the same guy who almost beat Uguev. He basically fell over after 30 seconds. They both wrestled up at 61kg before the Olympics.

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After last year and his performance at WTT, he is the heavy favorite.  The elite PSU guys don't usually regress-they generally separate themselves from the field. 
He doesn't have to regress. Literally his predecessor at this weight at this school is an example of a guy who improved only incrementally at the school. Then you have a guy like Zain who made massive improvements.

Either way, no i don't think Starocci is a heavy favorite over a guy who beat him handily and then lost in OT two weeks later. Time will tell.

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2 hours ago, VakAttack said:

He doesn't have to regress. Literally his predecessor at this weight at this school is an example of a guy who improved only incrementally at the school. Then you have a guy like Zain who made massive improvements.

Either way, no i don't think Starocci is a heavy favorite over a guy who beat him handily and then lost in OT two weeks later. Time will tell.

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idk if i buy this "Mark Hall improved" nonsense 

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11 minutes ago, hammerlockthree said:

idk if i buy this "Mark Hall improved" nonsense 

Furthermore, how much better did Megaludis, Cenzo, or Gullibon get with each passing year?

Starocci was already elite last year. He'll no doubt improve, but whether he turns into a destroyer of worlds remains to be seen. It's not a guarantee that he'll outstrip everyone next year. 

Still, he's my pick to win. Begrudgingly.

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To argue the alternative, Starocci made big improvements from where he was when he graduated to the end of the year to my eye. I just don't know if I see the tools to be one of those guys who can separate themselves from the field like Taylor/Ruth/etc. Aaron Brooks has those kinds of tools.

Starocci is more like Cenzo. Which isn't an insult, Cenzo was awesome!

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To argue the alternative, Starocci made big improvements from where he was when he graduated to the end of the year to my eye. I just don't know if I see the tools to be one of those guys who can separate themselves from the field like Taylor/Ruth/etc. Aaron Brooks has those kinds of tools. 

Starocci is more like Cenzo. Which isn't an insult, Cenzo was awesome!

 

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Do you have a Rokfin account?

 

If so, watch his previous match against Marsteller. Much improved. He’s scoring on attacks at OTTs he didn’t score on against college kids.

 

 

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5 hours ago, VakAttack said:

He doesn't have to regress. Literally his predecessor at this weight at this school is an example of a guy who improved only incrementally at the school. Then you have a guy like Zain who made massive improvements.

Either way, no i don't think Starocci is a heavy favorite over a guy who beat him handily and then lost in OT two weeks later. Time will tell.

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But at this point I don't think a 25 year old Kemerer is going to improve much.  I could totally see Starocci getting caught eventually though by someone, but not next year.

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23 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

But at this point I don't think a 25 year old Kemerer is going to improve much.  I could totally see Starocci getting caught eventually though by someone, but not next year.

Why not?  I think you're overrating intra-era improvement.  I think most everybody agrees that most of the best guys of today would beat most of the best guys of 30 years ago if those guys were just plucked out of their era and plopped down today.  But I don't see that the guys coming into college today are necessarily better than the guys that came in 5 years ago.  Further Kemerer has shown massive improvements in his time at Iowa.  Maybe he's topped out, but maybe not, and now that Starocci has made adjustments, it's Kemerer's turn to make adjustments.

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12 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

Why not?  I think you're overrating intra-era improvement.  I think most everybody agrees that most of the best guys of today would beat most of the best guys of 30 years ago if those guys were just plucked out of their era and plopped down today.  But I don't see that the guys coming into college today are necessarily better than the guys that came in 5 years ago.  Further Kemerer has shown massive improvements in his time at Iowa.  Maybe he's topped out, but maybe not, and now that Starocci has made adjustments, it's Kemerer's turn to make adjustments.

Anything is possible, but I just think it's much more likely that the guy who has been at an upward trajectory continues on it, and the guy who has been stagnant for 4 years won't suddenly improve significantly.

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Anything is possible, but I just think it's much more likely that the guy who has been at an upward trajectory continues on it, and the guy who has been stagnant for 4 years won't suddenly improve significantly.
Kemerer has not been stagnant.

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There aren't any true heavy favorites at any weights next year except 125 and 285 ... I'll add 149 also (though Yianni seems to like playing with fire at times in folk but he hasn't been burned yet at NCAAs)

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14 hours ago, MSU158 said:

Honestly, it happens a lot.  Hell, Terry Brands wouldn't even look at his Bronze Medal.  He, was just that much better than his competition when he won it.  

Now, I am not saying they simply didn't care.  I am just saying that MANY guys can't get themselves motivated and up for wrestle backs.  This happens a lot at NCAA's, but even more so at International competitions.  Some wrestlers just aren't mentally prepared to take a loss and then reset and bring their "A" games.  Now, I can't pigeon hole every wrestler into that category, but I watched those matches several times and they simply didn't look like they had nearly the same movement and fight in them that they did early on.  Gilman's wrestling almost assuredly had something to do with that, but I just didn't see the same wrestling against him that I saw against Uguev.  

Also, please understand that I am a big proponent of GIlman.  I have had many any argument defending him on HR since he made the switch.  I think he wrestled a great tournament and fully deserved a medal.  I am just calling it like I see it.  His backside opponents didn't have REMOTELY the same grit and determination that he did and that made more of the difference than the actual wrestling on the mat!

Look at Sebastian Rivera any time he loses before the finals.  Perhaps Yianni at OTT and maybe Hidlay at NCAA last year.  Dramatically different wrestlers in consolations. 

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Kemmerer is about the same wrestler he has been for a few years. Beats everyone else but can't get over the hump against PSU. 0-3 vs Nolf with each loss looking pretty much the same as the earlier losses. 1-1 vs Mark Hall where he first beats him by 5, but in the rematch he loses by 3. Now as a 25 year old he goes 1-1 vs Starocci where he wins the first match, Carter S. and PSU adjust, and he loses the rematch in the NCAA finals. 

Starocci's trajectory looks a lot steeper. 

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17 hours ago, VakAttack said:

He doesn't have to regress. Literally his predecessor at this weight at this school is an example of a guy who improved only incrementally at the school. Then you have a guy like Zain who made massive improvements.

Either way, no i don't think Starocci is a heavy favorite over a guy who beat him handily and then lost in OT two weeks later. Time will tell.

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Well, if you think about it, Zain jumped levels during his redshirt year.  RS Sophomore Zain is still probably the best version of him we've ever seen... I don't even think he's a better wrestler today.  

Mark Hall never took a redshirt, and thus, never really improved.  

Following that logic, given that Starocci already burned his magical redshirt year, we can expect that he'll pretty much be the same guy he is today for the rest of eternity.  

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1 hour ago, Antitroll2828 said:

He’s pretty much the same wrestler he was the year he got caught by Palacio

Agreed.  Kemmerer was a finalist threat as a freshman.  5 years later and he is in single takedown matches with guys like Labriola.  Starocci is 19 and wasn't much renowned in high school.  He is going to be beating Kemmerer comfortably this year.

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