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4 hours ago, AHamilton said:

Look at Sebastian Rivera any time he loses before the finals.  Perhaps Yianni at OTT and maybe Hidlay at NCAA last year.  Dramatically different wrestlers in consolations. 

This is why college coaches have an affinity for kids who show resilience and come back for 3rd at their HS state tourneys. You can scoop up a lot of team points on the backside of the NCAA brackets.

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19 hours ago, IGotAPlan said:

I'll give you the consolation wrestlebacks at trials. But you're telling me you think Abdullaev and Atri decided they didn't care about winning a a medal at all once it wasn't gold? 

They care, but it’s tough mentally to be 100% after losing your dream. Similar to Burroughs in 2016. 

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Zain's final 3 years are 

35-0 with 88 percent bonus wins

28-0 with 89 percent bonus wins

31-0 with 83 percent bonus wins. 

Zain was an ultra high level wrestler all three years. Him winning two Hodge Trophies speak to that fact.

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1 hour ago, Class said:

Agreed.  Kemmerer was a finalist threat as a freshman.  5 years later and he is in single takedown matches with guys like Labriola.  Starocci is 19 and wasn't much renowned in high school.  He is going to be beating Kemmerer comfortably this year.

Wasn't much renowned in high school?  He was 96-0 his last 2 seasons in PA(mind you the deepest wrestling state in the country) and took 2nd as a sophomore.  I mean FLO had him as a top 10 lb for lb in the Country in 2019.  What exactly does it take to be "much renowned" in high school?

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1 hour ago, TBar1977 said:

Zain's final 3 years are 

35-0 with 88 percent bonus wins

28-0 with 89 percent bonus wins

31-0 with 83 percent bonus wins. 

Zain was an ultra high level wrestler all three years. Him winning two Hodge Trophies speak to that fact.

Zain was so dominant. It’s easy to forget now that we don’t see him in folkstyle. He will always be p4p one of the best 

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Kemerer was undefeated and dominant last year going into NCAAs.  He blew thru his side of the bracket with ease at the NCAA tournament and then lost in OT in the finals.  He's massively better than he was as a freshman.  This is a ridiculous argument.  As a freshman he struggled finishing and didn't have much of anything on the mat.  He's a different guy now.  He wasn't a "finalist threat" this year, he was the dominant 1 seed and favorite to win the weight.

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16 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

Zain was so dominant. It’s easy to forget now that we don’t see him in folkstyle. He will always be p4p one of the best 

Some skillsets just don't fully transfer from folk to free.  Guys like Retherford, Ruth and Askren were just such great overall wrestlers that they still did damn good in Freestyle, but losing their mat wrestling skillset hurt all 3 considerably. Zain, even more so, because he scored points in BUNCHES on top!

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2 hours ago, steamboat_charlie v2 said:

Well, if you think about it, Zain jumped levels during his redshirt year.  RS Sophomore Zain is still probably the best version of him we've ever seen... I don't even think he's a better wrestler today.  

Mark Hall never took a redshirt, and thus, never really improved.  

Following that logic, given that Starocci already burned his magical redshirt year, we can expect that he'll pretty much be the same guy he is today for the rest of eternity.  

Not really, the guys who tend to make those leaps tend to have some sort of special tools.  Starocci, to my eye, doesn't have that next level of physical ability to go along with his already strong technical skills.  He's more like a Vincenzo Joseph or a Nathan Tomasello, both guys who won as freshman but never really separated themselves from the field for the rest of their careers but were still extremely good.

 

Not directed at steamboat here, but all the guys on here going on and on about about Starocci beating Kemerer comfortably and being a heavy favorite, put up some money on it.  I'll take Kemerer +4 and put a $100 on it.  Remember, I'm arguing that they're co-favorites, you're arguing that Starocci is a heavy favorite and/or going to beat Kemerer comfortably.

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I find the genre of comparison arguments to be humorous.

  1. Wrestler A had a certain career with a certain trajectory (mind you it is my subjective determination of both points usual made up to fit my preferred narrative).
  2. I deem wrestler B to be like wrestler A in some limited and subjective way.
  3. Therefore, it is an immutable law of nature that wrestler B must follow the identical trajectory as wrestler A.

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5 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I find the genre of comparison arguments to be humorous.

  1. Wrestler A had a certain career with a certain trajectory (mind you it is my subjective determination of both points usual made up to fit my preferred narrative).
  2. I deem wrestler B to be like wrestler A in some limited and subjective way.
  3. Therefore, it is an immutable law of nature that wrestler B must follow the identical trajectory as wrestler A.

It's not an immutable law, it's a prediction.

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20 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

Kemerer was undefeated and dominant last year going into NCAAs.  He blew thru his side of the bracket with ease at the NCAA tournament and then lost in OT in the finals.  He's massively better than he was as a freshman.  This is a ridiculous argument.  As a freshman he struggled finishing and didn't have much of anything on the mat.  He's a different guy now.  He wasn't a "finalist threat" this year, he was the dominant 1 seed and favorite to win the weight.

I felt Kemerer was fantastic as a freshman, he was the clear #2 at 157 to Nolf. He caught "caught" against a funky Palacio which happens but wrestled back for 3rd. He drew Nolf in the quarters (BS) in 2018 and finished 4th after his shoulder just left the socket in the 3rd place match.

All that aside, yes he has improved for sure, part of it legitimately might be getting healthy. 

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18 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

Not really, the guys who tend to make those leaps tend to have some sort of special tools.  Starocci, to my eye, doesn't have that next level of physical ability to go along with his already strong technical skills.  He's more like a Vincenzo Joseph or a Nathan Tomasello, both guys who won as freshman but never really separated themselves from the field for the rest of their careers but were still extremely good.

 

Not directed at steamboat here, but all the guys on here going on and on about about Starocci beating Kemerer comfortably and being a heavy favorite, put up some money on it.  I'll take Kemerer +4 and put a $100 on it.  Remember, I'm arguing that they're co-favorites, you're arguing that Starocci is a heavy favorite and/or going to beat Kemerer comfortably.

I don't bet on the internet, but Starocci is going to beat Kemmerer this year imo. Kem has topped out while Starocci is rapidly ascending. I strongly suspected (kinda knew) Kemmerer was beat in the final last year after 1 period. 

 

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8 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

I don't bet on the internet, but Starocci is going to beat Kemmerer this year imo. Kem has topped out while Starocci is rapidly ascending. I strongly suspected (kinda knew) Kemmerer was beat in the final last year after 1 period. 

 

Sure, it's possible.  I'm wrong all the time, ask my wife.  And I don't think anybody predicting Starocci to beat Kemerer is an idiot.  He obviously just did it.  I just don't think there will be some pronounced gap, I see it as closer to a coin flip, and I don't see Starocci as having that kind of next level of ability like I see in Brooks and possibly even Kerkvleit (or Keegan O'Toole, Mekhi Lewis, Spencer Lee, etc.) to separate himself from Kemerer or the field.  I think separation like that is rare, and even having the tools isn't enough, you have to actually maximize it.

Honestly, I don't feel like I'm insulting Starocci by comparing him to Vincenzo Joseph or Nathan Tomasello.  But I fully acknowledge that I could be wrong.  However, for anybody who feels that strongly that I'm wrong, the wager is there.

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4 hours ago, MSU158 said:

Wasn't much renowned in high school?  He was 96-0 his last 2 seasons in PA(mind you the deepest wrestling state in the country) and took 2nd as a sophomore.  I mean FLO had him as a top 10 lb for lb in the Country in 2019.  What exactly does it take to be "much renowned" in high school?

To win NCAAs as a 19 year old freshman you are in a class where high school resumes are mind-blowing.  No one saw that quick progression to NCAA champ from Starocci as a high schooler.  That was the point I was attempting to make, but admit the wording wasn't the best.  

Point being Kemmerer has already passed a point in his career where he is on a pitch count and CS is coming into his own.  This is going to be one sided this year.

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To win NCAAs as a 19 year old freshman you are in a class where high school resumes are mind-blowing.  No one saw that quick progression to NCAA champ from Starocci as a high schooler.  That was the point I was attempting to make, but admit the wording wasn't the best.  
Point being Kemmerer has already passed a point in his career where he is on a pitch count and CS is coming into his own.  This is going to be one sided this year.
Bet is on the table.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, portajohn said:

I'm more inclined to make a bet that neither Starrocci nor Kem make the finals.  But I'm not quite there yet

It'll depend on the construction of the weight.  If Mekhi Lewis goes up, he's my pick (presuming health).  Who else do you see up there that could knock one of them out?  Or do you think somebody is going to make a jump?

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7 hours ago, VakAttack said:

Not really, the guys who tend to make those leaps tend to have some sort of special tools.  Starocci, to my eye, doesn't have that next level of physical ability to go along with his already strong technical skills.  He's more like a Vincenzo Joseph or a Nathan Tomasello, both guys who won as freshman but never really separated themselves from the field for the rest of their careers but were still extremely good.

 

Not directed at steamboat here, but all the guys on here going on and on about about Starocci beating Kemerer comfortably and being a heavy favorite, put up some money on it.  I'll take Kemerer +4 and put a $100 on it.  Remember, I'm arguing that they're co-favorites, you're arguing that Starocci is a heavy favorite and/or going to beat Kemerer comfortably.

How can you argue they are even and then ask for a 4 point spread?  Nobody wants to gamble here except you, so at least offer a line that matches what you are claiming, which is even money. I think Starocci is the heavy favorite, but I wouldn't put money on a  line that supports him being a heavy favorite because I'm not a degenerate gambler.  

Edited by Billyhoyle

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How can you argue they are even and then ask for a 4 point spread?  Nobody wants to gamble here except you, so at least offer a line that matches what you are claiming, which is even money. I think Starocci is the heavy favorite, but I wouldn't put money on a  line that supports him being a heavy favorite because I'm not a degenerate gambler.  


This was already explained. The people making the claims of heavy favorites are the ones I'm offering the bet to. And I offered a comfortable win line, but it's not like I'm demanding Kemerer lose by major. It's ok if you don't actually believe it.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

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42 minutes ago, VakAttack said:


 

 


This was already explained. The people making the claims of heavy favorites are the ones I'm offering the bet to. And I offered a comfortable win line, but it's not like I'm demanding Kemerer lose by major. It's ok if you don't actually believe it.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

 

Right.  I think he's a heavy favorite, but I'm not going to place a bet on a wrestling match with a line that matches what I think.  Unless you have a gambling problem, the only reason to place a bet is if the line is significantly better than what you think it should be. Betting on a line that you think is correct is foolish.  So if you want to call people out who think he's the heavy favorite and make it seem like we won't put our money behind our prediction, you need to offer a line that matches what you think the score should be (even money), not what we-those of us being called out by you-think it should be. Otherwise, it just looks like you have no idea how gambling works-since I'd rather just keep my money than have an even money wager.  

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11 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

Right.  I think he's a heavy favorite, but I'm not going to place a bet on a wrestling match with a line that matches what I think.  Unless you have a gambling problem, the only reason to place a bet is if the line is significantly better than what you think it should be. Betting on a line that you think is correct is foolish.  So if you want to call people out who think he's the heavy favorite and make it seem like we won't put our money behind our prediction, you need to offer a line that matches what you think the score should be (even money), not what we-those of us being called out by you-think it should be. Otherwise, it just looks like you have no idea how gambling works-since I'd rather just keep my money than have an even money wager.  

Gambling lines are designed to get a nearly identical amount/volume (I will not get into a semantics argument here) with more amount/volume being wagered on the side the house thinks will lose. This is the premise of gambling. You are essentially asking Vak to offer odds that are favorable to you as the individual, which is not how smart gambling works. Really, you want Vak to be a gambling addict and you want to take advantage of it. You aren't asking for a fair line, you are asking for your line. 

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1 hour ago, wrestlingphish said:

Gambling lines are designed to get a nearly identical amount/volume (I will not get into a semantics argument here) with more amount/volume being wagered on the side the house thinks will lose. This is the premise of gambling. You are essentially asking Vak to offer odds that are favorable to you as the individual, which is not how smart gambling works. Really, you want Vak to be a gambling addict and you want to take advantage of it. You aren't asking for a fair line, you are asking for your line. 

Gambling lines are presented by the house based on what the house determines is even money.  In this case, Vak is the house because he is the one proposing a bet. It's foolish to place a bet unless you as an individual think the house line is wrong.  If I think the Chiefs are going to beat the Raiders by 7, and the line is 6.5, that's not a bet I'm going to take. As I said, only a degenerate who needs to feel the rush of a wager to enjoy sports would place that bet.  If, however, the line is 2, then that is a bet I may want to place. Of course, I have zero confidence to think I know more than the Vegas bookies, which is why I don't bet on football. 

To make the argument that those of us who think Starocci is a heavy favorite don't actually believe it, he needs to make an offer in line with his opinion that the match is even, and not ours.  The line he offered gives us zero incentive to accept it, since it's in line with Starocci being a strong favorite.  If anything, his offer makes it clear that he actually has zero confidence in his opinion, since he immediately jumped to a 4 point spread (a huge margin in NCAA wrestling between two elite wrestlers). It's unsurprising, since why would a 26 year old NCAA wrestler with a history of injuries improve more than a 20 year old who competed through the offfseason? Kemerer will provide his team points, which will allow Iowa to keep things close to PSU, but he's not going to win the title.  

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18 hours ago, Billyhoyle said:

Gambling lines are presented by the house based on what the house determines is even money.  In this case, Vak is the house because he is the one proposing a bet. It's foolish to place a bet unless you as an individual think the house line is wrong.  If I think the Chiefs are going to beat the Raiders by 7, and the line is 6.5, that's not a bet I'm going to take. As I said, only a degenerate who needs to feel the rush of a wager to enjoy sports would place that bet.  If, however, the line is 2, then that is a bet I may want to place. Of course, I have zero confidence to think I know more than the Vegas bookies, which is why I don't bet on football. 

To make the argument that those of us who think Starocci is a heavy favorite don't actually believe it, he needs to make an offer in line with his opinion that the match is even, and not ours.  The line he offered gives us zero incentive to accept it, since it's in line with Starocci being a strong favorite.  If anything, his offer makes it clear that he actually has zero confidence in his opinion, since he immediately jumped to a 4 point spread (a huge margin in NCAA wrestling between two elite wrestlers). It's unsurprising, since why would a 26 year old NCAA wrestler with a history of injuries improve more than a 20 year old who competed through the offfseason? Kemerer will provide his team points, which will allow Iowa to keep things close to PSU, but he's not going to win the title.  

This is a person to person bet, I'm not a casino.  Casinos make money on the volume of bets and the odds being always in their favor.  That is not the case in a person to person bet.  I believe the two are evenly matched and would not be surprised if either won.  Do I want Kemerer to win?  Sure.  But if I think it's a coinflip match, there's no point in me betting on it at a pick'em, since I don't have a strong feeling one way or the other who will win it.

You (and others) are claiming that Starocci is a heavy favorite.  So far, the opinions on this thread are that either it's a toss up or Starocci is a favorite to heavy favorite.  So, of course the line would be between pick em (the people who think it's a toss up) and 7-8 points (a spanking).  Bam, I put it right in the middle of that, where Starocci is winning comfortably, but not dominantly, i.e. the spot where there is most likely to be a relatively even amount of bets on both sides based on the opinions proffered in the thread..  It's fine if you don't actually believe what you're saying, just say that.

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On 9/14/2021 at 1:51 PM, TBar1977 said:

I don't bet on the internet, but Starocci is going to beat Kemmerer this year imo. Kem has topped out while Starocci is rapidly ascending. I strongly suspected (kinda knew) Kemmerer was beat in the final last year after 1 period. 

 

Right.  You just knew it.  You sound like a blowhard.

If you're that amazing at it, then put your money down.  

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3 hours ago, VakAttack said:

This is a person to person bet, I'm not a casino.  Casinos make money on the volume of bets and the odds being always in their favor.  That is not the case in a person to person bet.  I believe the two are evenly matched and would not be surprised if either won.  Do I want Kemerer to win?  Sure.  But if I think it's a coinflip match, there's no point in me betting on it at a pick'em, since I don't have a strong feeling one way or the other who will win it.

You (and others) are claiming that Starocci is a heavy favorite.  So far, the opinions on this thread are that either it's a toss up or Starocci is a favorite to heavy favorite.  So, of course the line would be between pick em (the people who think it's a toss up) and 7-8 points (a spanking).  Bam, I put it right in the middle of that, where Starocci is winning comfortably, but not dominantly, i.e. the spot where there is most likely to be a relatively even amount of bets on both sides based on the opinions proffered in the thread..  It's fine if you don't actually believe what you're saying, just say that.

A 4 point spread is a huge margin between two elite wresters at the college level. Throwing that out there as your opinion of fair shows to me you either don't know college wrestling (I know this isn't true, since i've seen many excellent posts from you over the years) or that you don't actually have confidence in Kemmerer.  If you did, you would offer no spread and just take him to win head to head.  I think Starocci is the heavy favorite (probably winning 7-8 out of 10 matches), but I bet he only wins their matches by 1-3 points.  If i were forced to pick a side with a 4 point spread, I might even  take Kem.  But like I said, I would never take a bet with a point spread that I think matches what I think would happen. You are the person who is insisting on betting, so the onus is on you to offer a point spread that matches your stated opinion.  

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