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On 9/14/2021 at 1:44 AM, VakAttack said:

Kemerer has not been stagnant.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

He went from beating a guy that was back and forth for most of his college career with Zahid Valencia to losing to his 'Fresh'man replacement the following year...

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I dunno.  I wasn't on the Starocci bandwagon as he was recruited by PSU.  Sure, he was really good, elite at the HS level, but a lot of guys are and then flame out.  

After his RS year, I started paying more attention, and then, of course, last year, his progression during the season was interesting to see. 

Sheer eyeball test now, and in beating Nolf for 3rd, leads me to believe that he is continuing his progression, positively.  

I believe he is the favorite going into the season, until proven otherwise, and I do predict a potential widening of the gap.  

Will be interesting to see how folks shift weights and how this will affect matchups and results.

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On 9/14/2021 at 2:31 PM, VakAttack said:

Not really, the guys who tend to make those leaps tend to have some sort of special tools.  Starocci, to my eye, doesn't have that next level of physical ability to go along with his already strong technical skills.  He's more like a Vincenzo Joseph or a Nathan Tomasello, both guys who won as freshman but never really separated themselves from the field for the rest of their careers but were still extremely good.

 

Not directed at steamboat here, but all the guys on here going on and on about about Starocci beating Kemerer comfortably and being a heavy favorite, put up some money on it.  I'll take Kemerer +4 and put a $100 on it.  Remember, I'm arguing that they're co-favorites, you're arguing that Starocci is a heavy favorite and/or going to beat Kemerer comfortably.

I was alleging that Starocci already made his leap.  

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8 hours ago, Billyhoyle said:

A 4 point spread is a huge margin between two elite wresters at the college level. Throwing that out there as your opinion of fair shows to me you either don't know college wrestling (I know this isn't true, since i've seen many excellent posts from you over the years) or that you don't actually have confidence in Kemmerer.  If you did, you would offer no spread and just take him to win head to head.  I think Starocci is the heavy favorite (probably winning 7-8 out of 10 matches), but I bet he only wins their matches by 1-3 points.  If i were forced to pick a side with a 4 point spread, I might even  take Kem.  But like I said, I would never take a bet with a point spread that I think matches what I think would happen. You are the person who is insisting on betting, so the onus is on you to offer a point spread that matches your stated opinion.  

Man, do YOU keep FLYING by his actual point.  It isn't whether or not HE thinks Kemerer will win or lose.  He has already said he thinks it is a coin flip.  His ENTIRE point of making the bet at +4 is the FACT that several of YOU are flat out saying Starocci wins comfortably.  What don't you get?  He isn't talking about HIS opinion.  He is talking about those of you that say it will be an easy win for Starocci.  By setting the line at 4, he is essentially asking those of YOU to put your money where your mouth is in that regard.

So, for 100% clarity, the bet is NOT in ANY WAY about what Vak thinks will happen.  It is a bet 100% for those of you that think Starocci wins by a significant margin.  It is essentially a " put up, or shut up" bet.  Now, we know the Internet, so you really don't have to put up or shut up, but PLEASE for the love of God, stop deflecting and at the very least understand what the ACTUAL BET  offer is!!!

 

Edited to add:  Instead of bickering over a betting line, why don't you clarify what you consider will be a "controlled win" for Starocci?  You may not want to take the bet at 4, because it doesn't give you what you perceive as a padded line.  So, then why don't you just say what you think the score would be?  This way you don't have to take an actual bet for money, but you have clearly stated the type of win you think Starocci pulls off.  That way you 2 can just wait until the match happens and revisit it then.  I would think that would save a ton of back and forth bickering over an anonymous online bet that often results in the winner not getting paid!

Edited by MSU158

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18 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

Man, do YOU keep FLYING by his actual point.  It isn't whether or not HE thinks Kemerer will win or lose.  He has already said he thinks it is a coin flip.  His ENTIRE point of making the bet at +4 is the FACT that several of YOU are flat out saying Starocci wins comfortably.  What don't you get?  He isn't talking about HIS opinion.  He is talking about those of you that say it will be an easy win for Starocci.  By setting the line at 4, he is essentially asking those of YOU to put your money where your mouth is in that regard.

So, for 100% clarity, the bet is NOT in ANY WAY about what Vak thinks will happen.  It is a bet 100% for those of you that think Starocci wins by a significant margin.  It is essentially a " put up, or shut up" bet.  Now, we know the Internet, so you really don't have to put up or shut up, but PLEASE for the love of God, stop deflecting and at the very least understand what the ACTUAL BET  offer is!!!

 

Edited to add:  Instead of bickering over a betting line, why don't you clarify what you consider will be a "controlled win" for Starocci?  You may not want to take the bet at 4, because it doesn't give you what you perceive as a padded line.  So, then why don't you just say what you think the score would be?  This way you don't have to take an actual bet for money, but you have clearly stated the type of win you think Starocci pulls off.  That way you 2 can just wait until the match happens and revisit it then.  I would think that would save a ton of back and forth bickering over an anonymous online bet that often results in the winner not getting paid!

He understands. He's being disinegenuous.

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13 minutes ago, SignificantACCBias said:

He understands. He's being disinegenuous.

That may very well be true. Still, what I stated and proposed pretty much covers both stances. Either way, he is clearly asked to quit deflecting and simply answer  what he thinks the score would be. He can avoid betting, while still clearly defining his stance. 

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Hadn't watched his matches yet from the trials so just went through them.   Putting aside looking at results, insinuations that any of his opponents were packing it in, and without taking into account what athletes in the past had done in their careers...... just going by simply watching the wrestling he definitely looks like he has gained some steam in this off season.    Getting to legs off his own attacks, and more importantly being able to finish those attacks, particularly in his last match against a guy who's pretty good at defending those positions.    Don't see anything wrong with feeling like he is the favorite coming into the season when you look at everything big picture.

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25 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Hadn't watched his matches yet from the trials so just went through them.   Putting aside looking at results, insinuations that any of his opponents were packing it in, and without taking into account what athletes in the past had done in their careers...... just going by simply watching the wrestling he definitely looks like he has gained some steam in this off season.    Getting to legs off his own attacks, and more importantly being able to finish those attacks, particularly in his last match against a guy who's pretty good at defending those positions.    Don't see anything wrong with feeling like he is the favorite coming into the season when you look at everything big picture.

No one specified who did or did not "dump".  I was simply saying to NOT take TOO MUCH out of backside results in these types of events.  I never for a second said it happened or named a specific person, when it comes to Starocci's results.  I just said it DOES happen, more often than many want to admit, and I can say I witnessed it FIRSTHAND quite a bit in my time.  Some guys just ARE NOT built to wrestle in consolations.  Meanwhile, some guys are able to turn it up even more so.  Starocci may very well be one of these.

Still, my overall point is you shouldn't take too much out of his backside run, while ignoring he lost to Lujan on the front side 1st round.  Oh, and if you noticed, I CLEARLY stated he should be the favorite going into NCAA's....

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3 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

No one specified who did or did not "dump".  I was simply saying to NOT take TOO MUCH out of backside results in these types of events.  I never for a second said it happened or named a specific person, when it comes to Starocci's results.  I just said it DOES happen, more often than many want to admit, and I can say I witnessed it FIRSTHAND quite a bit in my time.  Some guys just ARE NOT built to wrestle in consolations.  Meanwhile, some guys are able to turn it up even more so.  Starocci may very well be one of these.

Still, my overall point is you shouldn't take too much out of his backside run, while ignoring he lost to Lujan on the front side 1st round.  Oh, and if you noticed, I CLEARLY stated he should be the favorite going into NCAA's....

A) Stop taking things so emotionally and personally. 
 

2) I didn’t mention you or any person in this thread in anyway. 
 

III) I did mention my take comes from simply watching the wrestling and nothing else. 
 

four) all those caps really do nothing. 
 

Relax. Have a drink. 

Edited by Lurker

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Just now, Lurker said:

A) Stop taking things so emotionally and personally. 
 

2) I didn’t mention you or any person in this thread in anyway. 
 

III) all those caps really do nothing. 
 

Relax. 

1.) I don't take it emotionally and/or personally.  I simply responded to a post that came right after you laughing at 2 of mine that directly fall into this category.

2.) My deductive reasoning skills are in fact strong enough to see you laugh at 2 of my posts right before your response.

3.) The fact that you posted about my usage of caps makes me happier that I use them

4.) I am so relaxed right now that I just got done spirit walking with Chris Farley and the Kung Fu Panda!

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7 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

1.) I don't take it emotionally and/or personally.  I simply responded to a post that came right after you laughing at 2 of mine that directly fall into this category.

2.) My deductive reasoning skills are in fact strong enough to see you laugh at 2 of my posts right before your response.

3.) The fact that you posted about my usage of caps makes me happier that I use them

4.) I am so relaxed right now that I just got done spirit walking with Chris Farley and the Kung Fu Panda!

Well I can assure you there were other people’s posts as well included in my assessment. It’s not at all about you MSU, it’s not all about you. I did find those two posts funny however. 
 

Enjoy!!

Edited by Lurker

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3 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Well I can assure you there were other people’s posts as well included in my assessment. It’s not at all about you MSU, it’s not all about you. I did find those two posts funny however. 
 

Enjoy!!

I didn't think it was all about me.  I simply responded to that part that was.  I am happy to have been able to make you laugh.  Laughter is essential to a long and happy life.

Finally, thank you for contributing to my enjoyment level for today.  Your feedback is much appreciated. Have a wonderful day!

Edited by MSU158

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Funny how everyone forgets Kem beat him 7-2 two weeks earlier at Big Tens.

If two guys are 1-1 two weeks apart, I'm not sure how you can say one is better than the other.

Edited by Fletcher

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1 hour ago, Fletcher said:

Funny how everyone forgets Kem beat him 7-2 two weeks earlier at Big Tens.

If two guys are 1-1 two weeks apart, I'm not sure how you can say one is better than the other.

One component is using your eyes and analyzing what you are seeing currently, and factoring that in with what happened six months ago. 

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1 hour ago, MSU158 said:

I didn't think it was all about me.  I simply responded to that part that was.  I am happy to have been able to make you laugh.  Laughter is essential to a long and happy life.

Finally, thank you for contributing to my enjoyment level for today.  Your feedback is much appreciated. Have a wonderful day!

I see we’re making some progress with the all caps though. I love me some progress. 

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23 minutes ago, Lurker said:

One component is using your eyes and analyzing what you are seeing currently, and factoring that in with what happened six months ago. 

Folkstyle results from six months ago are more relevant to folkstyle than current freestyle results. Heck - frisbee golf results may even be more relevant than freestyle.

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1 hour ago, Fletcher said:

Folkstyle results from six months ago are more relevant to folkstyle than current freestyle results. Heck - frisbee golf results may even be more relevant than freestyle.

Again.....as I've said repeatedly....I'm looking at the actual wrestling that is taking place and what I see in that.  What I see in that is two takedowns from Starrocci that would have been takedowns in folkstyle as well.  What I saw from his opponent were three points that would not have been.  The point of that comment you quoted was much more about what we are actually seeing, than what happened six months ago, in answer to your comment about what happened six months ago.

So what I saw...relative to what he did to win the match, very much relates to folkstyle, and shows me that he has added some good stuff to his game.  That's all I'm trying to say.  I wish I could say the same about Kemm......but we haven't seen him lately.

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7 hours ago, MSU158 said:

Man, do YOU keep FLYING by his actual point.  It isn't whether or not HE thinks Kemerer will win or lose.  He has already said he thinks it is a coin flip.  His ENTIRE point of making the bet at +4 is the FACT that several of YOU are flat out saying Starocci wins comfortably.  What don't you get?  He isn't talking about HIS opinion.  He is talking about those of you that say it will be an easy win for Starocci.  By setting the line at 4, he is essentially asking those of YOU to put your money where your mouth is in that regard.

So, for 100% clarity, the bet is NOT in ANY WAY about what Vak thinks will happen.  It is a bet 100% for those of you that think Starocci wins by a significant margin.  It is essentially a " put up, or shut up" bet.  Now, we know the Internet, so you really don't have to put up or shut up, but PLEASE for the love of God, stop deflecting and at the very least understand what the ACTUAL BET  offer is!!!

 

Edited to add:  Instead of bickering over a betting line, why don't you clarify what you consider will be a "controlled win" for Starocci?  You may not want to take the bet at 4, because it doesn't give you what you perceive as a padded line.  So, then why don't you just say what you think the score would be?  This way you don't have to take an actual bet for money, but you have clearly stated the type of win you think Starocci pulls off.  That way you 2 can just wait until the match happens and revisit it then.  I would think that would save a ton of back and forth bickering over an anonymous online bet that often results in the winner not getting paid!

By his logic, if he thinks it is coin flip, he should be fine taking a bet with no point spread, since he is so keen on gambling (just as he think i'd be ok taking a bet with a line close to my prediction).  I think Starocci is a heavy favorite, and if I set a spread, it would be 2.5 points. If you  look at matches between elite wrestlers, they are usually decided by few points, but that doesn't mean the match is actually close. But as I said in a previous post, I'm not taking a bet at or near a point spread that I think is fair, because it's stupid to bet a line you think is accurate.  

 

Given that his line is 0, and mine is 2.5, I guess he will be correct if the match is decided by 1 point (or if Kemerer wins), and I will be if it is decided by 2 points or greater.  We can look back later in the season and find out, although as I said, I wouldn't wager anything with that spread.

Edited by Billyhoyle

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On 9/14/2021 at 10:14 PM, VakAttack said:

It'll depend on the construction of the weight.  If Mekhi Lewis goes up, he's my pick (presuming health).  Who else do you see up there that could knock one of them out?  Or do you think somebody is going to make a jump?

Haven't been paying much attention recently but from last I can remember it was Mekhi, Griffith, and Hidlay making the jump to 74.  Add in someone like Labriola who I believe can knock off a top seed.  I'm not as sold on Mekhi as maybe you are being the favorite. Starrocci imo is the favorite but there is too much fire power in this weight class to make a bet.  Fair point spread for a match between Starrocci vs Kem would be 1 1/2. 

Edited by portajohn

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7 hours ago, Billyhoyle said:

A 4 point spread is a huge margin between two elite wresters at the college level. Throwing that out there as your opinion of fair shows to me you either don't know college wrestling (I know this isn't true, since i've seen many excellent posts from you over the years) or that you don't actually have confidence in Kemmerer.  If you did, you would offer no spread and just take him to win head to head.  I think Starocci is the heavy favorite (probably winning 7-8 out of 10 matches), but I bet he only wins their matches by 1-3 points.  If i were forced to pick a side with a 4 point spread, I might even  take Kem.  But like I said, I would never take a bet with a point spread that I think matches what I think would happen. You are the person who is insisting on betting, so the onus is on you to offer a point spread that matches your stated opinion.  

A 4 point spread is two takedowns.  It's literally being up by two and getting a counter takedown on your opponents last second shot.

I have literally, in this post, called it a pick'em/toss up situation.  Those are the actual words I have typed.  So of course I "don't have confidence in Kemerer" in the sense of I think he's a lock to win.  And, again, I'm not the house.  I'm not trying to get action on both sides of a line.  I'm having a person to person bet.  I said it's a pick'em.  Why would I bet on a pick'em?  I have said it's a pick'em.  You have said Starocci is a heavy favorite and would win comfortably.  I gave you that comfortable (but not huge) line.  You do not think Starocci will cover it.  That's fine.

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2 hours ago, Billyhoyle said:

By his logic, if he thinks it is coin flip, he should be fine taking a bet with no point spread, since he is so keen on gambling (just as he think i'd be ok taking a bet with a line close to my prediction).  I think Starocci is a heavy favorite, and if I set a spread, it would be 2.5 points. If you  look at matches between elite wrestlers, they are usually decided by few points, but that doesn't mean the match is actually close. But as I said in a previous post, I'm not taking a bet at or near a point spread that I think is fair, because it's stupid to bet a line you think is accurate.  

 

Given that his line is 0, and mine is 2.5, I guess he will be correct if the match is decided by 1 point (or if Kemerer wins), and I will be if it is decided by 2 points or greater.  We can look back later in the season and find out, although as I said, I wouldn't wager anything with that spread.

Within this single post you claimed your line was 2.5, and by the end of your post had moved it down to 1.5.  Big money come in on Kem midpost?

Edited by VakAttack

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8 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

A 4 point spread is two takedowns.  It's literally being up by two and getting a counter takedown on your opponents last second shot.

I have literally, in this post, called it a pick'em/toss up situation.  Those are the actual words I have typed.  So of course I "don't have confidence in Kemerer" in the sense of I think he's a lock to win.  And, again, I'm not the house.  I'm not trying to get action on both sides of a line.  I'm having a person to person bet.  I said it's a pick'em.  Why would I bet on a pick'em?  I have said it's a pick'em.  You have said Starocci is a heavy favorite and would win comfortably.  I gave you that comfortable (but not huge) line.  You do not think Starocci will cover it.  That's fine.

Folkstyle is stupid in that you can score four more takedowns than your opponent, yet only win by 4.   IMO a 4 takedown to 0 win is very dominant, as is winning by 3 points. 

5 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

Within your post you claimed your line was 2.5, and by the end of your post had moved it down to 1.5.  Big money come in on Kem midpost?

If I think  the line is 2.5, and you think it is 0, then 1.25 is the  middle of our two opinions.  That means if the match is decided by 1 or fewer points, you are closer to being correct, while if it is decided by two or more points, I am closer to being correct.  Apologies if that was difficult to understand. 

It's clear from your posts that you don't actually think the match is a pickem, seeing as you are demanding a four point spread, which is huge in folkstyle. At least that's the logic you applied to me not wanting to take a bet at a 4 point spread.  

Edited by Billyhoyle

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