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Starocci

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1 minute ago, Billyhoyle said:

Folkstyle is stupid in that you can score four more takedowns than your opponent, yet only win by 4.   IMO a 4 takedown to 0 win is very dominant, as is winning by 3 points. 

If I think  the line is 2.5, and you think it is 0, then 1.25 is the  middle of our two opinions.  That means if the match is decided by 1 or fewer points, you are closer to being correct, while if it is decided by two or more points, I am closer to being correct.  Apologies if that was difficult to understand. 

It's clear from your posts that you don't actually think the match is a pickem, seeing as you are demanding a four point spread, which is huge in folkstyle. At least that's the logic you applied to me not wanting to take a bet at a 4 point spread.  

There's no "midpoint."  If you say the spread is 2.5, you're right if Starocci wins by 3 or more.  You can't be like "I think Starocci is a 2.5 point favorite, but I also win if he wins by 2 points."  This is how lines work.

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10 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

There's no "midpoint."  If you say the spread is 2.5, you're right if Starocci wins by 3 or more.  You can't be like "I think Starocci is a 2.5 point favorite, but I also win if he wins by 2 points."  This is how lines work.

If I think he’s a 2.5 favorite, and you think it’s a 0 point spread, and he wins by 2, which of the two of us is closer to being correct? I’m not saying he will win by 3 or more points. Im saying he’s a heavy favorite with a spread of 2.5. If you don’t actually think it’s a tossup, that’s fine, but just say so.

Edited by Billyhoyle

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5 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

If I think he’s a 2.5 favorite, and you think it’s a 0 point spread, and he wins by 2, which of the two of us is closer to being correct? I’m not saying he will win by 3 or more points. Im saying he’s a heavy favorite with a spread of 2.5.

Again, that's not how lines work.  In that scenario, you are wrong.  Lines aren't a "who's closer?" proposition.  It's a "who's right" proposition.  You are now trying to claim a win for your "heavy favorite" argument if Starocci wins by a last second takedown, or, you know, a takedown in overtime.  Incredible.

 

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9 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

If I think he’s a 2.5 favorite, and you think it’s a 0 point spread, and he wins by 2, which of the two of us is closer to being correct? I’m not saying he will win by 3 or more points. Im saying he’s a heavy favorite with a spread of 2.5. If you don’t actually think it’s a tossup, that’s fine, but just say so.

thats-not-how-this-works-thats-not-how-a

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He better hope he doesn't have to face Donnell Washington again. 
I also think Mikey Labs will like to take another shot at him after the weak comment Carter made in the press conference afterwards about Labriola not being athletic

I doubt Carter Starocci loses any sleep over the prospect of wrestling either of them again.


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52 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

Again, that's not how lines work.  In that scenario, you are wrong.  Lines aren't a "who's closer?" proposition.  It's a "who's right" proposition.  You are now trying to claim a win for your "heavy favorite" argument if Starocci wins by a last second takedown, or, you know, a takedown in overtime.  Incredible.

 

Heavy favorites win on last second takedowns all the time.  As I said, if they wrestled 10 times, Starocci wins 7-8 of them. You can be a heavy favorite, but also only favored by 2.5 points in NCAA wrestling. Do you actually think this is a tossup, in that they would split the matches 5-5? Or do you think it's a tossup in the sense that Kem keeps it within 4 points, but is still likely to lose?

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Heavy favorites win on last second takedowns all the time.  As I said, if they wrestled 10 times, Starocci wins 7-8 of them. You can be a heavy favorite, but also only favored by 2.5 points in NCAA wrestling. Do you actually think this is a tossup, in that they would split the matches 5-5? Or do you think it's a tossup in the sense that Kem keeps it within 4 points, but is still likely to lose?
I've been exceedingly clear on this.

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14 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

I've been exceedingly clear on this.

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I will help here...

@Billyhoyle

My man.  Vak believes Kemdawg is a considerable favorite.  8 of 10 for Kemdawg.

1 hour ago, VakAttack said:

Could be.  Most guys don't make HUGE jumps midcareer, just continued improvement.  Off the top of my head, I can think of Pletcher.

I don't think he made any sort of jump.  He changed weight classes.

 I think he just quit sucking himself down to 133 so he could go out and have fun wrestling.

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I don't think he made any sort of jump.  He changed weight classes.
 I think he just quit sucking himself down to 133 so he could go out and have fun wrestling.
Re: Pletcher, possibly. I personally just felt like there was a jump in his finishing to go along with increased attack rate. That could be purely thanks to the weight jump, true.

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12 hours ago, nhs67 said:

I don't think he made any sort of jump.  He changed weight classes.

 I think he just quit sucking himself down to 133 so he could go out and have fun wrestling.

I'm not saying the weight wasn't a factor, because that does matter, but didn't make any sort of jump?  That's ridiculous.  He improved substantially between '19 and '20, starting with some really strong freestyle wins after the '19 season that helped flip a switch for him.  He talked about it in multiple interviews during the '20 season and attributed his improvement to a change in his mentality... which was readily apparent for anyone watching. 

There have been many others like that that've made a career off of winning close matches, only to eventually unlock their offense when they realize guys shouldn't be able to hang with them in the first place.  

 

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58 minutes ago, steamboat_charlie v2 said:

I'm not saying the weight wasn't a factor, because that does matter, but didn't make any sort of jump?  That's ridiculous.  He improved substantially between '19 and '20, starting with some really strong freestyle wins after the '19 season that helped flip a switch for him.  He talked about it in multiple interviews during the '20 season and attributed his improvement to a change in his mentality... which was readily apparent for anyone watching. 

There have been many others like that that've made a career off of winning close matches, only to eventually unlock their offense when they realize guys shouldn't be able to hang with them in the first place.  

 

I don't think he made a leap at all.

Frosh-Went 141.  Won basically every match he was supposed to, but obviously very green.

Soph-Dropped to 133.  Adjusted to the weight well.

Junior-Stayed at 133 and struggled more in his 2nd season therr.  Lost a lot of close matches to the next tier of guys.

Senior-Went back up and got to be comfortable.

I don't think he improved any more or less any year.  Year 4 he didn't have to watch his weight is all so he could focus on gameplanning his matches more.

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13 hours ago, VakAttack said:

Re: Pletcher, possibly. I personally just felt like there was a jump in his finishing to go along with increased attack rate. That could be purely thanks to the weight jump, true.

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I'll give the Hawkeyes some credit. Pat Lugo was an example of a big jump late in his career. He showed signs he could be great at times early on (heck he beat Sorensen) but never put it all together to ever be a legitimate high AA threat let alone a title threat. 

His senior year he was still winning matches like he always does (close defensive matches) but he was winning them all at that point, which you could never say early only. 

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Just now, IGotAPlan said:

I'll give the Hawkeyes some credit. Pat Lugo was an example of a big jump late in his career. He showed signs he could be great at times early on (heck he beat Sorensen) but never put it all together to ever be a legitimate high AA threat let alone a title threat. 

His senior year he was still winning matches like he always does (close defensive matches) but he was winning them all at that point, which you could never say early only. 

Yeah, but to me that was just the sort of development I'm mostly talking about.  He steadily improved.  Maybe you could argue Robles, the jump in results from sophomore to senior was large, but I don't totally remember how good he was as a junior in between.

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41 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I don't think he made a leap at all.

Frosh-Went 141.  Won basically every match he was supposed to, but obviously very green.

Soph-Dropped to 133.  Adjusted to the weight well.

Junior-Stayed at 133 and struggled more in his 2nd season therr.  Lost a lot of close matches to the next tier of guys.

Senior-Went back up and got to be comfortable.

I don't think he improved any more or less any year.  Year 4 he didn't have to watch his weight is all so he could focus on gameplanning his matches more.

I disagree.

Peep the wrestlestat. Pletcher had a pretty decent winning % as a sophomore but his bonus rate was a measly 11%. He did experience a slump his Junior year as you said but in his senior year, I felt like I was watching a different wrestler, executing moves I hadn't seen him try before. This is evidenced by his record: 96% win rate with nearly 60% bonus. This may have been higher if NCAAs happened. Finally, pre-senior year, I never would have picked Pletcher over Nick Lee

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20 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

Yeah, but to me that was just the sort of development I'm mostly talking about.  He steadily improved.  Maybe you could argue Robles, the jump in results from sophomore to senior was large, but I don't totally remember how good he was as a junior in between.

Eh idk. I feel for him to go from losing to a 149 Brady Berge and Russell Rohlfing to beating Austin O'Connor, Brayton Lee, Sammy Sasso, etc. is a sign he really has made a huge jump. He was a legitimate title contender which I never would have guessed after his junior year (thought he would be lower AA again)  

Granted yes - he was always "right there" with the best wrestlers (including Ashnault) so maybe it was just a mental hump. Either way, I give TnT quite a bit of credit for that.

Edited by IGotAPlan

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1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

I don't think he made a leap at all.

Frosh-Went 141.  Won basically every match he was supposed to, but obviously very green.

Soph-Dropped to 133.  Adjusted to the weight well.

Junior-Stayed at 133 and struggled more in his 2nd season therr.  Lost a lot of close matches to the next tier of guys.

Senior-Went back up and got to be comfortable.

I don't think he improved any more or less any year.  Year 4 he didn't have to watch his weight is all so he could focus on gameplanning his matches more.

I don't think you could have possibly watched Pletcher throughout his career and not noticed a significant jump in his senior year, which he attributed to mindset, not weight.  Agree to disagree I suppose.  

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17 hours ago, Le duke said:


I doubt Carter Starocci loses any sleep over the prospect of wrestling either of them again.


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Maybe not.  After all, this is the same kid who lost a match to Taylor Lujan one day and then boasted that he was the best wrestler in the world the next.

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1 hour ago, AHamilton said:

Maybe not.  After all, this is the same kid who lost a match to Taylor Lujan one day and then boasted that he was the best wrestler in the world the next.

Something tells me you missed some context. Not a shock. 

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3 hours ago, steamboat_charlie v2 said:

I don't think you could have possibly watched Pletcher throughout his career and not noticed a significant jump in his senior year, which he attributed to mindset, not weight.  Agree to disagree I suppose.  

I mean, I did watch him throughout his career.  He steadily increased.  His mindset change was hand in hand with not having to worry about cutting weight or weight management.  We can agree to disagree.  I'm not going to hate you any less for having a different opinion than mine.  Promise.

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4 hours ago, Mr. Poopy butthole said:

I disagree.

Peep the wrestlestat. Pletcher had a pretty decent winning % as a sophomore but his bonus rate was a measly 11%. He did experience a slump his Junior year as you said but in his senior year, I felt like I was watching a different wrestler, executing moves I hadn't seen him try before. This is evidenced by his record: 96% win rate with nearly 60% bonus. This may have been higher if NCAAs happened. Finally, pre-senior year, I never would have picked Pletcher over Nick Lee

I did peep the wrestlestat.

https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44636/pletcher-luke/profile

Nothing is disproving what I said.  He had his dip.  He steadily improved, as you can tell by his bonus percentage increasing steadily his soph, junior, and senior season. 

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2 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

Something tells me you missed some context. Not a shock. 

I'm good at context my friend.  He did not say he was GOING to be the best in the world.  He tweeted that he was currently the best.  I hope one day he is the best,  or that whomever we have in his weight is... but beating Nolf in the consolation rounds does not qualify you as the best (especially after losing to the immortal Taylor Lujan the day before)

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