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lu1979

USA FSs Most likely to win Gold in Oslo

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Which of the USA's FS team are most likely to win Gold in Oslo?  I am going with my order with comments below.

1 - K Dake 74 kg - Dake's weight will be a bit light of top end talent with Siddakov sitting, the Belarussian and Bekzod moving up to 79 - I have not heard whether or not Chamizo intends to go.  

2 - D Taylor - I think he will win again but with Yazdani he has a guy who is close in talent.

3 - J Cox - I think he wins but he has to bring his A game - also the Iranian will be hungry.

4 - JB - Can he add one more Gold to equal John Smith's total - I hope so.

5 - Yianni D - I know he is a rookie but I think he has a real shot - Like Dake (even more so @ 65kg) his weight is missing a lot of the top tier talent.

6 - T Gilman - If he is wrestling like he did in Tokyo I like his chances - still 57kg is always tough with lots of high level talent.

7 - J Green - This may be the year he gets it done.

8 - K  Snyder - It would require a major upset of the great Sadulaev - but it is not like he has never done it before:)

9 - D Fix -  Russian, Georgian and other top guys in weight.  

10 - Gwiz - With Taha, Geno, and Zare in the field as well as other guys he has lost to in the past Gwiz will need multiple upsets to get gold.

 

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43 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

Which of the USA's FS team are most likely to win Gold in Oslo?  I am going with my order with comments below.

1 - K Dake 74 kg - Dake's weight will be a bit light of top end talent with Siddakov sitting, the Belarussian and Bekzod moving up to 79 - I have not heard whether or not Chamizo intends to go.  

2 - D Taylor - I think he will win again but with Yazdani he has a guy who is close in talent.

3 - J Cox - I think he wins but he has to bring his A game - also the Iranian will be hungry.

4 - JB - Can he add one more Gold to equal John Smith's total - I hope so.

5 - Yianni D - I know he is a rookie but I think he has a real shot - Like Dake (even more so @ 65kg) his weight is missing a lot of the top tier talent.

6 - T Gilman - If he is wrestling like he did in Tokyo I like his chances - still 57kg is always tough with lots of high level talent.

7 - J Green - This may be the year he gets it done.

8 - K  Snyder - It would require a major upset of the great Sadulaev - but it is not like he has never done it before:)

9 - D Fix -  Russian, Georgian and other top guys in weight.  

10 - Gwiz - With Taha, Geno, and Zare in the field as well as other guys he has lost to in the past Gwiz will need multiple upsets to get gold.

 

This is a good readout.  I may flip Gilman and yianni, but otherwise, really good!

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1 hour ago, lu1979 said:

Which of the USA's FS team are most likely to win Gold in Oslo?  I am going with my order with comments below.

1 - K Dake 74 kg - Dake's weight will be a bit light of top end talent with Siddakov sitting, the Belarussian and Bekzod moving up to 79 - I have not heard whether or not Chamizo intends to go.  

2 - D Taylor - I think he will win again but with Yazdani he has a guy who is close in talent.

3 - J Cox - I think he wins but he has to bring his A game - also the Iranian will be hungry.

4 - JB - Can he add one more Gold to equal John Smith's total - I hope so.

5 - Yianni D - I know he is a rookie but I think he has a real shot - Like Dake (even more so @ 65kg) his weight is missing a lot of the top tier talent.

6 - T Gilman - If he is wrestling like he did in Tokyo I like his chances - still 57kg is always tough with lots of high level talent.

7 - J Green - This may be the year he gets it done.

8 - K  Snyder - It would require a major upset of the great Sadulaev - but it is not like he has never done it before:)

9 - D Fix -  Russian, Georgian and other top guys in weight.  

10 - Gwiz - With Taha, Geno, and Zare in the field as well as other guys he has lost to in the past Gwiz will need multiple upsets to get gold.

 

Appreciate the commentary.

My main critique is Snyder is way too low, and Yianni is way too high.

Snyder has medaled at 6 consecutive World/Olympic level events.  There's no reason to think it won't happen in a 7th.  He takes a loss here and there, but only rarely, only to the very top guys in the world, and only because he competes so much.  It wouldn't be unreasonable to have Snyder #1 on the list, but at least top 3.

As for Yianni, we haven't medaled since 2006 at his weight, and it hasn't even been that close.  That includes years in which Yianni competed to be the rep, but didn't make it.  At Trials, Yianni looked good, but did drop a match to McKenna, and won in a weight without JO, Zain or even Nick Lee, any of whom would be about even odds against him.  I'm not knocking him, but even with some talent gone, 65kg is incredibly deep internationally and its very easy to lose an early match to a non-finalist.  I'd have him and Fix rounding out the bottom 2, which isn't to say they're total longshots to medal -- both do have the potential -- only that others have better odds.

Edited by BAC

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2 minutes ago, BAC said:

Appreciate the commentary.

My main critique is Snyder is way too low, and Yianni is way too high.

Snyder has medaled at 6 consecutive World/Olympic level events.  There's no reason to think it won't happen in a 7th.  He takes a loss here and there, but only rarely, only to the very top guys in the world, and only because he competes so much.  It wouldn't be unreasonable to have Snyder #1 on the list, but at least top 3.

As for Yianni, we haven't medaled since 2006 at his weight, and it hasn't even been that close.  That includes years in which Yianni competed to be the rep, but didn't make it.  At Trials, Yianni looked good, but did drop a match to McKenna, and won in a weight without JO, Zain or even Nick Lee, any of whom would be about even odds against him.  I'm not knocking him, but even with some talent gone, 65kg is incredibly deep internationally and its very easy to lose an early match to a non-finalist.  I'd have him and Fix rounding out the bottom 2, which isn't to say they're total longshots to medal -- both do have the potential -- only that others have better odds.

Just pointing out the OP's list was best chances to win, not to medal.  Don't know if that changes your thinking any.

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Seems pretty reasonable.  

If I had to nitpick, Snyder should be higher.  Not because he has a great chance at beating Sadulaev, but I still think there's a reasonable chance he doesn't show or still isn't right.  If he's not there, Snyder wins the weight.  4 or 5 guys would need to no show before Green wins that weight IMO.  

And I wouldn't move him up the list, but Fix is a bit of a wild card given his... history.  

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34 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Just pointing out the OP's list was best chances to win, not to medal.  Don't know if that changes your thinking any.

I missed that.  I was thinking chances to medal.  Yes, it does change my thinking, particularly on Snyder bc of Sadulaev.  My bad, lu1979.  

Re Yianni, I still think he's too high, especially relative to Gilman and Green.  Snyder too, but admittedly its a fun thought exercise to wonder if the odds are greater that Snyder beats Sadulaev, or that Yianni pulls a Zadick and runs the table against everyone.

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2 minutes ago, BAC said:

 but admittedly its a fun thought exercise to wonder if the odds are greater that Snyder beats Sadulaev, or that Yianni pulls a Zadick and runs the table against everyone.

exactly what I was thinking reading through the list

Snyder basically a lock to medal, but Yianni may have a better chance at winning it, while also having a similar chance of going 0-1.  Interesting dynamic

 

Edited by Lurker

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9 minutes ago, steamboat_charlie v2 said:

Seems pretty reasonable.  

If I had to nitpick, Snyder should be higher.  Not because he has a great chance at beating Sadulaev, but I still think there's a reasonable chance he doesn't show or still isn't right.  If he's not there, Snyder wins the weight.  4 or 5 guys would need to no show before Green wins that weight IMO.  

And I wouldn't move him up the list, but Fix is a bit of a wild card given his... history.  

It may be a minority view, but I think Snyder has a decent -- maybe 30% -- chance of knocking off Sadulaev.  It was really just one mistake he made at the Olympics (twice) -- over-extending himself on an ankle pick on a guy who know how to exploit it.  Snyder is in better shape.  I think Snyder can still do what he did in 2017:  keep it close by not making any dumb mistakes but keep the pressure on, only take shots where he stays positionally sound (e.g. his high crotch, or high double), and turn on the gas in the last 90 seconds, where Sadulaev's defense starts to crack a bit.

Edited by BAC

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3 minutes ago, BAC said:

It may be a minority view, but I think Snyder has a decent -- maybe 30% -- chance of knocking off Sadulaev.  It was really just one mistake he made at the Olympics (twice) -- over-extending himself on an ankle pick on a guy who know how to exploit it.  Snyder is in better shape.  I think Snyder can still do what he did in 2017:  keep it close by not making any dumb mistakes but keep the pressure on, only take shots where he stays positionally sound (e.g. his high crotch, or high double), and turn on the gas in the last 90 seconds, where Sadulaev's defense starts to crack a bit.

30% might be high, but agreed, there's a chance.  

Now if it's actually true that Sadulaev was significantly hampered by injury at the Olympics, and is close to 100% now, we may look silly saying there was any chance at all.  

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6 minutes ago, Lurker said:

exactly what I was thinking reading through the list

Snyder basically a lock to medal, but Yianni may have a better chance at winning it, while also having a similar chance of going 0-1.  Interesting dynamic

 

Agree.  And I may have sounded down on Yianni, but I'm actually really excited to see how he fares on the senior level.  There's the school of thought that his main weaknesses are on techniques/approaches that are mainly used by Americans (see Lee v Yianni) but that he matches up well internationally, and he does have a couple senior level matches and those Cadet-level golds to support that take.  I'm just a bit worn down on getting all excited very year about our 65kg guy only to see him go 0-1, yet again.  

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15 minutes ago, steamboat_charlie v2 said:

Now if it's actually true that Sadulaev was significantly hampered by injury at the Olympics, and is close to 100% now, we may look silly saying there was any chance at all.  

Yeah that's scary, I agree.  But in 3 matches he's never scored easily against Snyder, and if its close I still like Snyder's end-of-match conditioning advantage.  Not saying a win its likely, but...

Edited by BAC

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28 minutes ago, BAC said:

Agree.  And I may have sounded down on Yianni, but I'm actually really excited to see how he fares on the senior level.  There's the school of thought that his main weaknesses are on techniques/approaches that are mainly used by Americans (see Lee v Yianni) but that he matches up well internationally, and he does have a couple senior level matches and those Cadet-level golds to support that take.  I'm just a bit worn down on getting all excited very year about our 65kg guy only to see him go 0-1, yet again.  

Yianni has competed internationally at two World Cadet championships, the Yasar Dogu, the Waclaw Ziolkowski Memorial, the Poland Open (2021), the 2020 Pan Ams, and the 2021 Henri Deglane.  He has lost one match total in those seven tournaments (the Poland Open, which he won anyway).

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I agree with your top 4, but not necessarily in that order. I would be surprised if anyone outside those 4 wins Gold, (medal most definitely, but difficult to see winning gold).

I actually reckon JB is the most likely of them all.

Taylor and Cox have one main rival respectively that could certainly pip them to the post as you mentioned, but have good chances.

And Dake with his main rivals not going should on paper have an easier path. Chamizo is not going either btw.

On a slight aside how do yous reckon Taylor vs Yaz 4 goes now that Taylor has won 3 in a row? All in very different circumstances and different matches, but 3-0 nonetheless.

Edited by Uwwdoc

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4 hours ago, lu1979 said:

Which of the USA's FS team are most likely to win Gold in Oslo?  I am going with my order with comments below.

1 - K Dake 74 kg - Dake's weight will be a bit light of top end talent with Siddakov sitting, the Belarussian and Bekzod moving up to 79 - I have not heard whether or not Chamizo intends to go.  

2 - D Taylor - I think he will win again but with Yazdani he has a guy who is close in talent.

3 - J Cox - I think he wins but he has to bring his A game - also the Iranian will be hungry.

4 - JB - Can he add one more Gold to equal John Smith's total - I hope so.

5 - Yianni D - I know he is a rookie but I think he has a real shot - Like Dake (even more so @ 65kg) his weight is missing a lot of the top tier talent.

6 - T Gilman - If he is wrestling like he did in Tokyo I like his chances - still 57kg is always tough with lots of high level talent.

7 - J Green - This may be the year he gets it done.

8 - K  Snyder - It would require a major upset of the great Sadulaev - but it is not like he has never done it before:)

9 - D Fix -  Russian, Georgian and other top guys in weight.  

10 - Gwiz - With Taha, Geno, and Zare in the field as well as other guys he has lost to in the past Gwiz will need multiple upsets to get gold.

 

How do you know that Sidakov is sitting, and that Kadzi and Bekzod are moving up?  (I’m sure I’m out of the loop here.)

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33 minutes ago, BigTimeFan said:

Dake is going to smash the competition.  I look at his Oly performance as the aberration and expect he won’t repeat that. 

If none of the other 74kg medalists from Tokyo will be competing at 74kg at Oslo, it seems like Dake’s chances of gold are very much improved.

Personally, I’d like to see Dake against Kadzi again, and against Sidakov finally. Oh well.

Edited by Katie

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All I See Is Gold Tier   
1) 86 Taylor - 3-0 against the best competitor, but the gap is still a fraction apart between the two. I really like JB and Cox more but DT is the king of the mountain until proven otherwise.
2) 79 JB - What elite competition shows up? Currently this appears to be JB's weight to lose. I like angry JB he's always more fun.
4) 74 Dake - Appears to be the US #1 vs possibly Zhamalov (Russia #2 and global top 5 or better). Hope they don't meet until the finals, and I hope that Dake doesn’t run into a land mine again.
5) 92 Cox - Mortal lock? No. Would I be willing to put down a significant money at -110 odds that J'Den takes out the field? You betcha.
   
Does the world's P4P show up? Tier   
3) or 6) 97 Snyder - Does Sadulaev show up? If yes, then unfortunately I give Snyder a minmal chance (though still better than anyone below this spot). Not a knock on him that he went from being the P4P champ to being in the finals 3x and counting against the P4P champ. Just tough and will always root for a guy who does things the right way and has an amazing attitude. If no Sad, then the competition pool is very shallow. No Sad = disappointment if no gold.
   
Probably not a chance but better than the group below Tier   
6) 57 Gilman - Was Tokyo the best version of Gilman that we ever see? How is the foot injury and training progressing? Did everyone look good against Uguev before they came up short?
7) 65 Yianni - Would I be surprised by gold? Nope. He has proven international results. Would I be surprised by a DNP? Nope. It's 65 for crying out loud! Even if every Olympic medalist shows up there may be 4 new people on the podium.

Going to need a miracle run Tier   
8) 61 Fix - Anything less than a perfect draw with tomato cans to tech off the mat and conserve energy going into finals will prove fruitless. A medal is certainly within reach, but this post is about gold.
9) 70 Green - Father Time is still undefeated. Do I think Greezy can medal? Absolutely! Do I think he can win gold now when he couldn't in his prime? Not really.
10) 125 Gwiz Will Geno, Akgul, or Zare show up? What about Deng? What about "dang, at least we got gold a few months ago."

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46 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Does the world's P4P show up? Tier   
3) or 6) 97 Snyder - Does Sadulaev show up? If yes, then unfortunately I give Snyder a minmal chance (though still better than anyone below this spot). Not a knock on him that he went from being the P4P champ to being in the finals 3x and counting against the P4P champ. Just tough and will always root for a guy who does things the right way and has an amazing attitude. If no Sad, then the competition pool is very shallow. No Sad = disappointment if no gold.
   

Great list.  I agree that is Sadulaev doesn't compete, KS moves up to #1 on the list.

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@bnwtwg - well done.  I like the Gwiz we saw at WTTs.  I’m not saying to move him from your bottom tier, but I think I give him higher odds than you do.  Hoping he comes in with some fire.

I feel the same way about Yianni. Can’t wait to watch.  But I have high hopes and I predict a high finish.

The biggest enigma to me is Fix.  I am not comfortable with any kind of prediction.

  

 

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I just want Cox to win and instead of doing a victory lap with the flag, he should send a tweet. Something like "better late than never" FROM THE MAT. I would absolutely die and it would be pretty awesome from his end to really lean into it.

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I see some folk asking/wondering if certain folk will appear or not.

This is a link to the list from uww

https://uww.org/article/30-tokyo-olympic-medalists-highlight-wrestleoslo-world-entries

For ease this is Iran and Russia's full fs list:

 

Russia

57: Nachyn MONGUSH 

61: Abasgadzhi MAGOMEDOV

65: Zagir SHAKHIEV

70: Israil KASUMOV

74: Razambek ZHAMALOV 

79: Akhmed USMANOV 

86: Artur NAIFONOV 

92: Magomed Guseynovitch KURBANOV 

97: Abdulrashid SADULAEV

125: Sergei KOZYREV 

Iran

57: Alireza Sarlak
61: Rahman Amouzad
65: Amir Mohammad Yazdani
70: Erfan Elahi
74: Younes Emami
79: Mohammad Nokhodi
86: Hassan Yazdani
92: Kamran Ghasempour
97: Mojtaba Goleij
125: Amir Hossein Zare

 

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8 hours ago, lu1979 said:

Which of the USA's FS team are most likely to win Gold in Oslo?  I am going with my order with comments below.

1 - K Dake 74 kg - Dake's weight will be a bit light of top end talent with Siddakov sitting, the Belarussian and Bekzod moving up to 79 - I have not heard whether or not Chamizo intends to go.  

2 - D Taylor - I think he will win again but with Yazdani he has a guy who is close in talent.

3 - J Cox - I think he wins but he has to bring his A game - also the Iranian will be hungry.

4 - JB - Can he add one more Gold to equal John Smith's total - I hope so.

5 - Yianni D - I know he is a rookie but I think he has a real shot - Like Dake (even more so @ 65kg) his weight is missing a lot of the top tier talent.

6 - T Gilman - If he is wrestling like he did in Tokyo I like his chances - still 57kg is always tough with lots of high level talent.

7 - J Green - This may be the year he gets it done.

8 - K  Snyder - It would require a major upset of the great Sadulaev - but it is not like he has never done it before:)

9 - D Fix -  Russian, Georgian and other top guys in weight.  

10 - Gwiz - With Taha, Geno, and Zare in the field as well as other guys he has lost to in the past Gwiz will need multiple upsets to get gold.

 

I like this list.

In 92 Kg, the Iranian will be hungry, but it's not the same guy who lost to cox before (Karimi)

It's Ghassempour, who has been second to Yazdani for a long time, and just moved up to 92

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