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lu1979

USA FSs Most likely to win Gold in Oslo

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23 hours ago, BAC said:

Appreciate the commentary.

My main critique is Snyder is way too low, and Yianni is way too high.

Snyder has medaled at 6 consecutive World/Olympic level events.  There's no reason to think it won't happen in a 7th.  He takes a loss here and there, but only rarely, only to the very top guys in the world, and only because he competes so much.  It wouldn't be unreasonable to have Snyder #1 on the list, but at least top 3.

As for Yianni, we haven't medaled since 2006 at his weight, and it hasn't even been that close.  That includes years in which Yianni competed to be the rep, but didn't make it.  At Trials, Yianni looked good, but did drop a match to McKenna, and won in a weight without JO, Zain or even Nick Lee, any of whom would be about even odds against him.  I'm not knocking him, but even with some talent gone, 65kg is incredibly deep internationally and its very easy to lose an early match to a non-finalist.  I'd have him and Fix rounding out the bottom 2, which isn't to say they're total longshots to medal -- both do have the potential -- only that others have better odds.

I completely agree with you about the likelihood of Snyder medaling.  He is more likely to medal than Yianni no question about that.  However this list was about how likely he is to win the Gold medal.  Snyder has the best wrestler in the world standing in his way.  If Sadulaev decides not to go to Oslo than Snyder immediately moves to #1 on my list. 

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5 hours ago, lu1979 said:

I completely agree with you about the likelihood of Snyder medaling.  He is more likely to medal than Yianni no question about that.  However this list was about how likely he is to win the Gold medal.  Snyder has the best wrestler in the world standing in his way.  If Sadulaev decides not to go to Oslo than Snyder immediately moves to #1 on my list. 

1)Kyle Snyder - Just an opinion based on my impression of him - the odds of Sadulaev going to worlds is minimal.

2)  Taylor is looking pretty good for it so I'll put him next.  Yazdani is overdue for his slice of the pie, however. 

3) Jordan Burroughs is rejuvenated.  Love the return of the doubles.  Thanks, coach Slay.

4) Cox is phenomenal, but has been inconsistent.  I was tempted to put him 1st.

5)Kyle  Dake is at best third in the world. Has a shot, but has a lot to prove at 74kg since he was a big step down from the top two. 

I don't see a  possibility better than 10 percent from the other 5, so we'll go with the untested.

6) Yianni - Once beat Bajrang, so he has a world class win.

7) Daton Fix, is he another Steveson story?

8)Thomas Gilman - his career impresses the hell out of me, but he does not.

9)James Green - who is this guy?   IDK, but I love him and hope for the best.

10) Gwiz - Looked really good at trials, so I think he'll have a good tournament.

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On 9/17/2021 at 8:43 AM, BAC said:

I missed that.  I was thinking chances to medal.  Yes, it does change my thinking, particularly on Snyder bc of Sadulaev.  My bad, lu1979.  

Re Yianni, I still think he's too high, especially relative to Gilman and Green.  Snyder too, but admittedly its a fun thought exercise to wonder if the odds are greater that Snyder beats Sadulaev, or that Yianni pulls a Zadick and runs the table against everyone.

I think it is about right as to win Gold you have to make it to the finals which I think Snyder will do.

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You have to consider the competition as a huge factor here. Assuming rumors are true that Sadulaev is going and many others are not… Dake and JB have to be the top two by far. I’d have it:
1. Dake
2. JB
3. Cox
4. Taylor
5. Gilman
6. Green
7. Yianni
8. Snyder (assuming Sadulaev is in)
9. Fix
10. Gwiz


If I need to know anything about wrestling or sports, I ask@ShakaAloha because he knows more than me.

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1. With how 74 Kg has cleared out, Dake is #1. 

2. Cox, because his competitors don't have a Yazdani level wrestler.

3. Taylor, because he has to beat Yazdani.

After the top three it gets fuzzy. Snyder is the next best wrestler at this point, but he is an underdog to the Russian Tank. 

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On 9/17/2021 at 4:51 PM, lu1979 said:

Which of the USA's FS team are most likely to win Gold in Oslo?  I am going with my order with comments below.

1 - K Dake 74 kg - Dake's weight will be a bit light of top end talent with Siddakov sitting, the Belarussian and Bekzod moving up to 79 - I have not heard whether or not Chamizo intends to go.  

2 - D Taylor - I think he will win again but with Yazdani he has a guy who is close in talent.

3 - J Cox - I think he wins but he has to bring his A game - also the Iranian will be hungry.

4 - JB - Can he add one more Gold to equal John Smith's total - I hope so.

5 - Yianni D - I know he is a rookie but I think he has a real shot - Like Dake (even more so @ 65kg) his weight is missing a lot of the top tier talent.

6 - T Gilman - If he is wrestling like he did in Tokyo I like his chances - still 57kg is always tough with lots of high level talent.

7 - J Green - This may be the year he gets it done.

8 - K  Snyder - It would require a major upset of the great Sadulaev - but it is not like he has never done it before:)

9 - D Fix -  Russian, Georgian and other top guys in weight.  

10 - Gwiz - With Taha, Geno, and Zare in the field as well as other guys he has lost to in the past Gwiz will need multiple upsets to get gold.

 

I think people aren't realizing how tough the probability is of stringing 4 or 5 relatively favorable events together.

Even if you think Yianni and Green are 55-75% favorites for each of 5 matches (which is being very generous), they've only got a 10% shot at gold (9-1 odds).

If Snyder is 95% to beat each other opponent and 25% vs Sad, he's got about a 20% shot at gold (4-1 odds) even without the very real possibility Sad no-shows or comes in way out of shape.

Edited by maligned

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4 hours ago, maligned said:

I think people aren't realizing how tough the probability is of stringing 4 or 5 relatively favorable events together.

Even if you think Yianni and Green are 55-75% favorites for each of 5 matches (which is being very generous), they've only got a 10% shot at gold (9-1 odds).

If Snyder is 95% to beat each other opponent and 25% vs Sad, he's got about a 20% shot at gold (4-1 odds) even without the very real possibility Sad no-shows or comes in way out of shape.

No one is saying that Yianni or Green are likely to win gold. They are just saying that they are more likely than Gwiz or Fix or Snyder.

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1. With how 74 Kg has cleared out, Dake is #1. 
2. Cox, because his competitors don't have a Yazdani level wrestler.
3. Taylor, because he has to beat Yazdani.
After the top three it gets fuzzy. Snyder is the next best wrestler at this point, but he is an underdog to the Russian Tank. 

Did you forget about JB or is that a purposeful omission? I don’t see how you could put him in the “fuzzy” category with everyone else when he is the clear favorite on paper.


If I need to know anything about wrestling or sports, I ask@ShakaAloha because he knows more than me.

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IF Taylor and Snyder have the best chance to get TO the gold medal match, wouldn't they have to have the best chance to win gold?

Obviously, that does not have to be the case. They have both have one really good wrestler in their path that makes them less likely to win gold, but still almost certain to medal. If I were in a bracket with 15 jr. high Jv wrestlers and Sadulaev, I’d have a 100% chance to medal (I hope lol) and a 0% chance of winning gold.

Taylor’s 3-0 against his top opponent so you have to give him the edge but that last match was as close to a 50/50 as you can get. I’d say he has a 55% chance of gold. Snyder has to be no more than 10% chance. Several of our other guys could have a greater chance of gold because of no clear favorite in their path.


If I need to know anything about wrestling or sports, I ask@ShakaAloha because he knows more than me.

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15 hours ago, NJDan said:

No one is saying that Yianni or Green are likely to win gold. They are just saying that they are more likely than Gwiz or Fix or Snyder.

I understood. That's why I showed mathematically how Snyder is still way more likely to win gold even being a clear underdog in one match compared to guys who are moderate favorites in five.

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I understood. That's why I showed mathematically how Snyder is still way more likely to win gold even being a clear underdog in one match compared to guys who are moderate favorites in five.

I get your point and that’s why I personally have Taylor above all those guys even though I think he will have a tough time with Yazdani again. However, the numbers you are assigning are completely arbitrary and I would change them quite a bit. For example, I would think Yainni and Green will both have at least one or two opponents that they are closer to 90% favorites to win. And I don’t think Snyder will be 95% against everyone other than Sadulaev. He’s lost matches to other guys too. Plus I’d drop him to no more than 10% against Sadulaev. This would sway the equation to put Snyder below them


If I need to know anything about wrestling or sports, I ask@ShakaAloha because he knows more than me.

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Well you have one basically guaranteed gold with Taylor, after that i'd say Burroughs.

1 - Taylor

2 - JB

3 - Cox

4 - Dake

5 - Gilman

(Below here I would be very surprised if they won, so kind of hard to rank)

6 - Yiani

7 - Snyder

8 - Fix

9 - Green

10 -  Gwiz 

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2 hours ago, Shiraz123 said:

Well you have one basically guaranteed gold with Taylor, after that i'd say Burroughs.

Not much faith in your guy. He keeps getting better at 86. Do you know something we don't?

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55 minutes ago, maligned said:

Not much faith in your guy. He keeps getting better at 86. Do you know something we don't?

I think his big jump at 86 was from 2017 to 2018 and onwards. He looked much better to me in 2018 worlds than 2017 worlds (despite not winning in 2018), since then he's looked like he's hit his prime and been fully comfortable at the weight. I don't think 2021 Yazdani is noticeably better than 2019 Yazdani, for example. If you're talking about wrestling Taylor specifically then yes, he wrestled him smarter this most recent time. Still think Taylor is a much more complete and well rounded wrestler and will always pick him until I see him decline. Stress on Hassan probably gets worse the more he loses to him also. According to Dabir (head of the Iranian fed) he was kind of freaking out backstage in Tokyo. Can't be easy for him going into this with the prospect of going 0 - 4 against his rival. 

Edited by Shiraz123

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On 9/24/2021 at 12:44 PM, mspart said:

Eagle, you should have conferred with @shakaaloha first.  He might say the same but he might not.  Not to say I don't agree with you.  I do. 

mspart

Forgot to post my list lol.  Thanks for the reminder.

1. Taylor - Won gold in Tokyo and is head and shoulders better than everyone except Yazdani
2. Dake - No Sidakov, Gadzhi moved up to 79, unclear if Chamizo is wrestling
3. Cox - Won this weight the last 2 times and the Iranian is his only real competition
4. Burroughs - Gadzhi and the Russian are no joke, but JB is JB
5. Gilman - Looked great in Tokyo, would consider moving him as high as third if he is healthy and gets a great draw
6. Snyder - Would be higher except Sadulaev has his number
7. Fix - 61 is a less difficult weight than 65 even without Otoguro, Bajrang, and Rashidov
8. Diakomihalis
9. Green - no disrespect, but his best years are behind him
10. Gwiazdowski - same as Green, except he has Geno and Zare at his weight

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11 hours ago, ShakaAloha said:

Forgot to post my list lol.  Thanks for the reminder.

1. Taylor - Won gold in Tokyo and is head and shoulders better than everyone except Yazdani
2. Dake - No Sidakov, Gadzhi moved up to 79, unclear if Chamizo is wrestling
3. Cox - Won this weight the last 2 times and the Iranian is his only real competition
4. Burroughs - Gadzhi and the Russian are no joke, but JB is JB
5. Gilman - Looked great in Tokyo, would consider moving him as high as third if he is healthy and gets a great draw
6. Snyder - Would be higher except Sadulaev has his number
7. Fix - 61 is a less difficult weight than 65 even without Otoguro, Bajrang, and Rashidov
8. Diakomihalis
9. Green - no disrespect, but his best years are behind him
10. Gwiazdowski - same as Green, except he has Geno and Zare at his weight

I don't know if Gwiz's best years are behind him (he's been more dominant domestically than any time in his career recently)--he just has a clear talent ceiling that prevents him from beating Geno, Zare, Gable.

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On 9/24/2021 at 6:22 PM, Eagle26 said:


Did you forget about JB or is that a purposeful omission? I don’t see how you could put him in the “fuzzy” category with everyone else when he is the clear favorite on paper.


If I need to know anything about wrestling or sports, I ask@ShakaAloha because he knows more than me.

I forgot about him. Guess he could be above Snyder but I haven't cared enough to see who is wrestling 79Kg so I don't know. 

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On 9/26/2021 at 5:38 AM, Shiraz123 said:

Well you have one basically guaranteed gold with Taylor, after that i'd say Burroughs.

I strongly disagree that Taylor is guaranteed anything. I honestly think he's third or fourth on this list, but he has earned the benefit of the doubt and has been placed at the top based on past accomplishments rather than likelihood of successful repeating against a top 10 p4p opponent with a razor-thin margin.

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9 hours ago, maligned said:

I don't know if Gwiz's best years are behind him (he's been more dominant domestically than any time in his career recently)--he just has a clear talent ceiling that prevents him from beating Geno, Zare, Gable.

How has Gwiz "been more dominant domestically than any time in his career recently" when he has 4 domestic losses in the last 12 months?  

He hasn't just been losing to Geno, Zare, and Gable.  Gwiz lost to Baran from Poland in the last year, he lost to Deng from China the last two times they've wrestled, he lost to Mohebbi and Hadi from Iran in addition to getting teched by Zare, and he also lost to Taha (who I would put on the same level as Geno, Zare, and Gable).  

IMO, Gwiz is not winning a medal at the upcoming worlds, much less winning gold.  PM me if you want to do a sig bet.  

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1 hour ago, ShakaAloha said:

How has Gwiz "been more dominant domestically than any time in his career recently" when he has 4 domestic losses in the last 12 months?  

He hasn't just been losing to Geno, Zare, and Gable.  Gwiz lost to Baran from Poland in the last year, he lost to Deng from China the last two times they've wrestled, he lost to Mohebbi and Hadi from Iran in addition to getting teched by Zare, and he also lost to Taha (who I would put on the same level as Geno, Zare, and Gable).  

IMO, Gwiz is not winning a medal at the upcoming worlds, much less winning gold.  PM me if you want to do a sig bet.  

The (low) probability of Gwiz medaling is entirely dependent on another Coon-esque dream draw like he got in 2017 and 2018. His ceiling is maaaaybe top 8 globally and that's if I squint really really hard.

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