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Ranking 165

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1 hour ago, MSU158 said:

But, you are assuming that Alex loses any of those matches if he didn't get hurt.  Injuries play a big part in rankings and it is ONLY FAIR to not penalize a guy for taking that severe of an injury while losing an OT match to the eventual Champ.  Also, let's not forget that Alex has a win over Wittlake(took 4th), the year prior and beat Smith(took 5th) and Amine(took 7th) at B1Gs less than 2 weeks prior.  Looking at the brackets he would have needed to beat Amine then Smith then Wittlake to wrestle O'Toole for 3rd.  You just don't have ANY data saying he loses those matches, while you have significant data saying he wins them...

There's a big difference between not penalizing someone for being injured, and granting them phantom wins on account of injury.  You're doing the latter.  You're handing him win after win in the consy bracket that he didn't actually earn, including over the 3rd place finisher, to grant him the higher ranking.  That's nuts.

Its also terrible for wrestling.  If you're a coach of a highly-ranked guy, why not just have him default out of big matches, instead of risking a loss?  After all they'll just treat the default/MFF as a win since that's "where the data points" and hand him a high seed/ranking as a result.  Why earn that which will be just handed to you?

This practice of treating recent MFFs/injury default losses as phantom wins, and bootstrapping them with results from 2+ seasons ago, cuts both ways too.  Why should Marinelli be ahead of Mekhi Lewis, as Lewis' only losses since 2019 (when he won NCAAs, defeating Marinelli en route), have been injury defaults/ MFFs?  Valencia is 1-0 against Marinelli and AA'd last season while Marinelli DNP'd (and Valencia's NCAA losses were, as you say, while he was hurt), so shouldn't Valencia be higher?  And Wick has just as good a claim to a phantom 3rd place win as Marinelli last year, as both were injured and Wick, despite losses to Marinelli, is 1-0 against him in NCAAs with a near-tech, and Wick hasn't lost in 2 years unlike Marinelli.

Edited by BAC

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1 minute ago, Husker_Du said:

i totally get what you're saying, but it's easy to not lose when you don't wrestle.

if i'm a ranker (i'm not a college ranker) i put marinelli behind everyone but wittlake (who he beat and who also lost to weber). just my .02

Just give him the 8th seed. We need a natty from the bald man and that seems to be the lucky draw

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26 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

You can't give him those wins because he would have been wrestling them injured.  That is what I don't get.  He was actually injured and would have been extremely hampered in the most difficult part of the most difficult bracket of the season.

 

18 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I am the other way.  I think the Bull does deserve the #1 spot.  I just think using MFF as a reasoning to do it is lame AF.  He would have lost again.  It is not only his nature but he was actually seriously injured.  He would not have finished above O'Toole like that.  No handed and rib-punctured lung?  Yeah.  Give me O'Toole 10 out of 10 there.

But, it isn't fair or right to rank based on injured performances, let alone extrapolating how the wrestler would perform after those injuries.  Even then, you have examples like Ed Ruth getting slaughtered by Amuch, but then wrecking Henrich and Lewnes after.  

Now, I am not saying you ignore losses, but every ranker is rightly going to weigh those losses based on contributing factors.

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2 minutes ago, Mr. Poopy butthole said:

Just give him the 8th seed. We need a natty from the bald man and that seems to be the lucky draw

Can't give him 8 seed. He don't lose in the regular season, haha.

Shane was 8 b/c loss to A Valencia

Mekhi had losses to isaiah white and Connor freakin Flynn

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1 minute ago, BAC said:

There's a big difference between not penalizing someone for being injured, and granting them phantom wins on account of injury.  You're doing the latter.  You're handing him win after win in the consy bracket that he didn't actually earn, including over the 3rd place finisher, to grant him the higher ranking.  That's nuts.

Its also terrible for wrestling.  If you're a coach of a highly-ranked guy, why not just have him default out of big matches, instead of risking a loss?  After all they'll just treat the default/MFF as a win since that's "where the data points" and hand him a high seed/ranking as a result.  Why earn that which will be just handed to you?

This practice of treating recent MFFs/injury default losses as phantom wins, and bootstrapping them with results from 2+ seasons ago, cuts both ways too.  Why should Marinelli be ahead of Mekhi Lewis, as Lewis' only losses since 2019 (when he won NCAAs, defeating Marinelli en route), have been injury defaults/ MFFs?  Valencia is 1-0 against Marinelli and AA'd last season while Marinelli DNP'd (and Valencia's NCAA losses were, as you say, while he was hurt), so shouldn't Valencia be higher?  And Wick has just as good a claim to a phantom 3rd place win as Marinelli last year, as both were injured and Wick, despite losses to Marinelli, is 1-0 against him in NCAAs with a near-tech.

I am not granting him ANY phantom wins.  I simply pointed out that he HAS wins over the 3 wrestlers he would have had to beat to get to O'Toole.

As far as your default argument goes, it is so ridiculous it falls flat on its face.  In NO WORLD would a Head Coach have his wrestler default out of NCAA's to hope for a better ranking to start next season.  The entire point is for him to get points in THAT tournament.

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8 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

I am not granting him ANY phantom wins.  I simply pointed out that he HAS wins over the 3 wrestlers he would have had to beat to get to O'Toole.

As far as your default argument goes, it is so ridiculous it falls flat on its face.  In NO WORLD would a Head Coach have his wrestler default out of NCAA's to hope for a better ranking to start next season.  The entire point is for him to get points in THAT tournament.

Of course you're granting him phantom wins.  You're giving him wins over all the guys O'Toole beat plus O'Toole himself.  Including Valencia, who is unbeaten against Marinelli but O'Toole teched.  That's how you justify a higher ranking over the guy who actually got 3rd:  pretend win after pretend win.

And obviously I wasn't referring to defaulting at NCAAs to get a ranking, but rather to the overarching principle that a wrestler should be able to avoid competition via default and MFF and still have those losses treated as wins to get a high seed or ranking later on, e.g. at NCAAs.  That's what you're defending.

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9 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

As far as your default argument goes, it is so ridiculous it falls flat on its face.  In NO WORLD would a Head Coach have his wrestler default out of NCAA's to hope for a better ranking to start next season.  The entire point is for him to get points in THAT tournament.

To be fair, we have seen this happen during in-season tournaments, and it has the same effect. Guy takes a semi loss and inj def. out and doesn't take a hit to his ranking (and probably not to his seed).

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14 hours ago, Husker_Du said:

It's this

Pool A     Pool C
Iowa     Penn State
Lehigh     Cornell
C. Mich     N. Iowa
Pool B     Pool D
Missouri     ASU
NC State     Tech
Oregon St.     Hofstra

 

Winner of A wrestles winner of B

Winner of C wrestles winner of D

Marinelli and O'Toole can hit. Neither can wrestle Valencia or Ramirez. We could see Hayden Hidlay vs Kemerer, should NC State win, but neither can see Brooks. But Brooks-Keckeisen seems like a sure bet.

 

Husker -- Any structure to the timing of the duals?  Will there be 2 duals occurring simultaneously, or even 4 duals simultaneously?  Just wondering how the timing/structure/schedule of events will work those 2 days.

Edited by Class

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3 minutes ago, Crotalus said:

To be fair, we have seen this happen during in-season tournaments, and it has the same effect. Guy takes a semi loss and inj def. out and doesn't take a hit to his ranking (and probably not to his seed).

Ahem...Spencer....Ahem.

This reminds me of the NAIA guy who won the Hodge because he won 2 major tourneys with D1 guys.  JRob argued, very effectively mind you, that there were 5-6 other guys who met that same criteria and did the same thing but then had to continue on through the D1 season meat grinder and post season facing several top guys.  Avoiding tough matches = avoiding losses and should be factored in..to everything.

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When someone like Spencer establishes a win over a top competitor his incentive to face that same competitor again.....from a rankings and seeding perspective.....l.plummets and it creates a problem where he might even avoid them when possible (not that I think he would do that).

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2 hours ago, Class said:

Marinelli has just one loss due to FFT out of the backside where his most difficult matches of the season were set to occur.  O'Toole however wrestled through the gauntlet that is the NCAA wrestle-backs.  If that is lower on the tiebreaker scale than a longer career w/matches pulling in data from 24 months ago + that is wrong.

Wouldn't be the first time i've been wrong! 

Marinelli's regular season and Big Ten gauntlet was pretty tough. def a tough regular season and conference tournament than O'Toole. O'Toole's wins coming at the NCAAs gives him slight edge, but Marinelli has a slight edge in losing to the champ vs losing to the the runnerup. It's razor thin differences and Marinelli's career has much much bigger wins so thats the tiebreaker. reasonable people can reasonably disagree tho. 

again, its just November. wouldn't get too concerned about it either way. but it is very cool that people care about it all!

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31 minutes ago, Class said:

When someone like Spencer establishes a win over a top competitor his incentive to face that same competitor again.....from a rankings and seeding perspective.....l.plummets and it creates a problem where he might even avoid them when possible (not that I think he would do that).

In 2015, #1 ranked Gabe Dean met (eventual #2) Nathaniel Brown (Lehigh) four times:  Cornell-Lehigh dual, National Duals, EIWAs, and NCAA finals.  Pretty sure there was never a thought to duck Brown at any time.

Can't think of a time when a Cornell or Lehigh guy avoided a match against anyone.  Maybe it's just a thing among the Real Elite (tm) teams?

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6 minutes ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

Wouldn't be the first time i've been wrong! 

Marinelli's regular season and Big Ten gauntlet was pretty tough. def a tough regular season and conference tournament than O'Toole. O'Toole's wins coming at the NCAAs gives him slight edge, but Marinelli has a slight edge in losing to the champ vs losing to the the runnerup. It's razor thin differences and Marinelli's career has much much bigger wins so thats the tiebreaker. reasonable people can reasonably disagree tho. 

again, its just November. wouldn't get too concerned about it either way. but it is very cool that people care about it all!

Didn't mean that wording towards you.  Criteria can sometimes create situational problems while still being sound for the majority of situations.  Meant that the criteria seems wrong in its application here but not that you were wrong, or that it was wrong in general.  Good dialogue....and it should clearly be O'Toole = ).

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8 minutes ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

Wouldn't be the first time i've been wrong! 

Marinelli's regular season and Big Ten gauntlet was pretty tough. def a tough regular season and conference tournament than O'Toole. O'Toole's wins coming at the NCAAs gives him slight edge, but Marinelli has a slight edge in losing to the champ vs losing to the the runnerup. It's razor thin differences and Marinelli's career has much much bigger wins so thats the tiebreaker. reasonable people can reasonably disagree tho. 

again, its just November. wouldn't get too concerned about it either way. but it is very cool that people care about it all!

I think the "losing to the champ vs losing to the the runnerup" is part of the problem others have pointed out, because the reason it is a 1-loss vs 1-loss comparison is because of the MFF. So Marinelli is benefiting (from a rankings perspective) from not having to wrestle the backside. And while Marinelli's career undoubtedly has bigger regular season and conference wins, O'Toole finished much higher at NCAAs than Marinelli ever has, which would not be an unreasonable tiebreaker. I agree that "reasonable people can reasonably disagree" as there is a lot of subjectivity no matter how you rank them in this case, and these are fun early season debates. I am a Mizzou fan and I don't actually care at all where any of these guys are currently ranked. I'll care more when it comes to seedings (though a good seed doesn't guarantee an easier road, as Marinelli knows all too well), but we will have a lot more data points by then.

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58 minutes ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

Marinelli's regular season . . . was pretty tough. def a tough regular season . . . than O'Toole.

Er... didn't Marinelli wrestle only 2 matches in the regular season (neither a top 10 guy)?  Not that Missou's schedule ever lights the world on fire, but... c'mon.

My bigger issue is with what you're saying is built into the Flo rankings philosophy, which is this:  When comparing two guys, one who loses in the 1/4s at NCAAs to the winner and then forfeits out, and the other guy loses to the 2nd place finisher and wrestles back for 3rd... that's a wash under Flo's policy?  Sorry, but that's gifting wins.  At minimum Marinelli should start ranked behind the 4 guys who placed ahead of Smith (who took 5th but Marinelli beat at BIGs),, and there's a decent argument that he should be behind the other AAs too, as they showed up on the backside and Marinelli didn't.

But hey, I appreciate you coming on here to share your thought process and hear people out.  More than most will do.

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1 hour ago, BAC said:

My bigger issue is with what you're saying is built into the Flo rankings philosophy, which is this:  When comparing two guys, one who loses in the 1/4s at NCAAs to the winner and then forfeits out, and the other guy loses to the 2nd place finisher and wrestles back for 3rd... that's a wash under Flo's policy? 

no, it would not be inaccurate to say we are comparing those two things that Marinelli and O'Toole did and saying they are equal. it would be accurate to say we are not considering those facts at all. 

but there is definitely an argument to be made that Marinelli should be lower! and people are welcome to be swayed by those arguments. we feel that to use the those arguments, which it would seem you prefer, to justify moving Marinelli lower than O'Toole would be inconsistent with how Flo has handled other similar situations. but then this situation, like almost ever ranking conundrum, is unique. so there's almost room for disagreements!

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11 hours ago, BAC said:

There's a big difference between not penalizing someone for being injured, and granting them phantom wins on account of injury.  You're doing the latter.  You're handing him win after win in the consy bracket that he didn't actually earn, including over the 3rd place finisher, to grant him the higher ranking.  That's nuts.

Its also terrible for wrestling.  If you're a coach of a highly-ranked guy, why not just have him default out of big matches, instead of risking a loss?  After all they'll just treat the default/MFF as a win since that's "where the data points" and hand him a high seed/ranking as a result.  Why earn that which will be just handed to you?

This practice of treating recent MFFs/injury default losses as phantom wins, and bootstrapping them with results from 2+ seasons ago, cuts both ways too.  Why should Marinelli be ahead of Mekhi Lewis, as Lewis' only losses since 2019 (when he won NCAAs, defeating Marinelli en route), have been injury defaults/ MFFs?  Valencia is 1-0 against Marinelli and AA'd last season while Marinelli DNP'd (and Valencia's NCAA losses were, as you say, while he was hurt), so shouldn't Valencia be higher?  And Wick has just as good a claim to a phantom 3rd place win as Marinelli last year, as both were injured and Wick, despite losses to Marinelli, is 1-0 against him in NCAAs with a near-tech, and Wick hasn't lost in 2 years unlike Marinelli.

Maybe they should all wrestle to see who gets ranked highest, like at the end of the year or something. 

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This whole argument is ridiculous, Marinelli DNP last year and had 0 wins over AAs , O’toole had 4 wins over AAs and took 3rd , so what logical reason does anyone have for putting the bull above o toole? Bc he beat cenzo a few times a few years ago? ..in 3 cracks at ncaas ( the only thing that really matters in wrestling ) marnelli has gone 6th, 7th and dnp, O toole just took 3rd as a true freshman wrestling up a weight…last time the bull placed was 2019 and he took 7th and yet somehow people argue for him to be number 1 bc why? He won the big ten a few times? 

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2 minutes ago, Antitroll2828 said:

This whole argument is ridiculous, Marinelli DNP last year and had 0 wins over AAs , O’toole had 4 wins over AAs and took 3rd , so what logical reason does anyone have for putting the bull above o toole? Bc he beat cenzo a few times a few years ago? ..in 3 cracks at ncaas ( the only thing that really matters in wrestling ) marnelli has gone 6th, 7th and dnp, O toole just took 3rd as a true freshman wrestling up a weight…last time the bull placed was 2019 and he took 7th and yet somehow people argue for him to be number 1 bc why? He won the big ten a few times? 

Because Marinelli is the poster child of Coulda, Woulda, and Shoulda.  O'Toole should be ranked No. 1...and I like Marinelli...but O'Toole I feel has moved on to another level.

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18 hours ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

no, it would not be inaccurate to say we are comparing those two things that Marinelli and O'Toole did and saying they are equal. it would be accurate to say we are not considering those facts at all. 

but there is definitely an argument to be made that Marinelli should be lower! and people are welcome to be swayed by those arguments. we feel that to use the those arguments, which it would seem you prefer, to justify moving Marinelli lower than O'Toole would be inconsistent with how Flo has handled other similar situations. but then this situation, like almost ever ranking conundrum, is unique. so there's almost room for disagreements!

Spey you have 7 guys that AAed last year behind Marnelli, …he last placed 7th in 2019, since then he has a win from December 1 2019 over wick and a 3-2 win of Wittlake in February of that year , other then that he hasn’t beaten any of the other AAs he’s ahead of , Hell Romero made the semis at tougher weight and matched marinelli highest finish (from 4 years ago) , outside of cenzo , Marinellis best career wins are over Wick and isiah white but you guys make him out to be a world beater…Wick, Otoole, Griffith, Wentzel, and Wittlake all have better finishes then him ,and 3 of those guys he’s never beat, I don’t get the hype with him, he does the same moves and is the same guy he was 3 years ago, hell maybe he shows out and wins this year but more likely his title window closed and you guys are just overhyping a 7th place finisher 

Edited by Antitroll2828

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