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let's guess how long Spencer Lee can be inactive and stay #1...

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30 minutes ago, Class said:

Fair points but then you seem to give Lee a pass on missing many, many quality opponents by choice.  If Stieber's (and others) losses are minimized due to taking a redshirt I believe quite firmly that Spencer has minimized his losses by simple competition avoidance spanning multiple years.  I believe that outside of big tens and nationals Spencer has actually wrestled in only 2 complete tournaments, the UNI open and Midlands, obviously losing in the 2nd one.  This allowed him to handpick the duals, and ultimately wrestlers, he competes with prior to the post season.  His career is literally the poster child for what is ailing college wrestling right now.  Top competitors having 0 incentive to compete with one another.

no i'm not at all. that definitely goes into my calculation and hurts his case. and i'm not saying stieber's losses are minimized because he finished that season in redshirt. i'm saying you have to count matches that actually happened. he took the mat as a college wrestler and lost. i don't know how many more times he would have lost, if any. i do know that he took three losses that day and they weren't good losses either, so if you're going to use win %, you need to include them.

as to your poster child claim, i think it's a little ungenerous, though i do agree the current trend sucks. it hurts his legacy, but it's also not like he hasn't had legitimate reasons to limit competition. he was competing with a significant injury. it's likely that he's only been at 100% full strength for one weekend his entire career. as much as the ducks hurt his legacy, you also have to admit his ability to not just win, but dominate while having significant injuries adds to it too.

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I’d be interested to see (although not interested enough to do the leg work) how many people who are so upset with Lee’s match schedule, are the same people who were so upset with Brands for ruining a for sure Olympic champ. That would be an interesting compare and contrast. 

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2 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

no i'm not at all. that definitely goes into my calculation and hurts his case. and i'm not saying stieber's losses are minimized because he finished that season in redshirt. i'm saying you have to count matches that actually happened. he took the mat as a college wrestler and lost. i don't know how many more times he would have lost, if any. i do know that he took three losses that day and they weren't good losses either, so if you're going to use win %, you need to include them.

as to your poster child claim, i think it's a little ungenerous, though i do agree the current trend sucks. it hurts his legacy, but it's also not like he hasn't had legitimate reasons to limit competition. he was competing with a significant injury. it's likely that he's only been at 100% full strength for one weekend his entire career. as much as the ducks hurt his legacy, you also have to admit his ability to not just win, but dominate while having significant injuries adds to it too.

It adds to it but when comparing all time greats there is an aspect of "life is tough" to it.  We only get to compare what the results were, the trials and tribulations each competitor went through isn't known to us.  Matt McDonough worked through weight management that I can't fathom and Cory Clark battled through pain to win a title - no question.  Heck, Dustin Schlatter had a body that just became a wreck but the level of wrestler he was as a true frosh.

Was Cael injured at all?  Maybe?  We will never know.  Same with Dake.  Same with everyone.  Spencer's knees are clearly a wreck but his total body of work considering all of his matches wrestled and his performance within all of his matches don't compare with the all time best, saying what could have been without injuries is fair and valid, but is also subjectivity that can't come into an all time best conversation.  The results must speak for themselves .

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Just now, Lurker said:

I’d be interested to see (although not interested enough to do the leg work) how many people who are so upset with Lee’s match schedule, are the same people who were so upset with Brands for ruining a for sure Olympic champ. That would be an interesting compare and contrast. 

i'll go out on a limb and say that venn diagram is close to a circle 

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Just now, Class said:

It adds to it but when comparing all time greats there is an aspect of "life is tough" to it.  We only get to compare what the results were, the trials and tribulations each competitor went through isn't known to us.  Matt McDonough worked through weight management that I can't fathom and Cory Clark battled through pain to win a title - no question.  Heck, Dustin Schlatter had a body that just became a wreck but the level of wrestler he was as a true frosh.

Was Cael injured at all?  Maybe?  We will never know.  Same with Dake.  Same with everyone.  Spencer's knees are clearly a wreck but his total body of work considering all of his matches wrestled and his performance within all of his matches don't compare with the all time best, saying what could have been without injuries is fair and valid, but is also subjectivity that can't come into an all time best conversation.  The results must speak for themselves .

unless you're limiting this to cael and (maybe) dake, this isn't true at all. and i haven't seen anybody trying to put him ahead of either of them, so who are you really complaining about?

If he wins his 4th title, he will have a legit claim to 3rd all-time and is comparable to Stieber and Smith by every metric. Same number of losses, astronomical bonus rate, wins over ncaa champs, etc... Frankly, the only reason Smith is even in the discussion is that he was the first to do it and gets a subjective bump.

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I will say Lee turns it up for NCAAs, no argument can be made against that.  His last tournament was a week bracket but his first one was particularly strong.

As far as the injuries go.  He should have been redshirted at some point.  His body deserved it and he could have perhaps mixed in freestyle depending on when done and how his body reacted to being healed fully.

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31 minutes ago, Class said:

How about a pretty clear and unbiased indicator of greatness.  Opponents offensive points allowed.  Uetake never gave one up from tales of his legend and many consider him the greatest ever because of it.

I would make a wager that Spencer already has given up more takedowns than Dake, Stieber and Cael combined, and it probably isn't close, and he has significantly less matches than all of them.

Heck, in his last NCAA tourney, which had his 2 best competitors removed because the EIWA sat out, he surrendered takedowns to Cardinale and Shroeder.

He isn't an all time great.  Not even close.

How many people are “all time greats”?

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17 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

159 wins Sanderson

135 wins or thereabouts Dake

121 wins Pat Smith

119 wins Steiber

Never mind Hodge, Uetake, Dan Gable and Gable S.

 

Now here is Spencer Lee. His career on the most carefully managed pitch count from literally Day 1. He shows up late this year he ends up with what? 85 maybe 90 wins in 5 years?

Btw, that word literally means just that. He could have wrestled Nick Suriano in the Iowa-Rutgers dual in December of his freshman year and they held him out of that dual only to have him wrestle 3 times the very next freaking day at the UNI Open. 

Sorry, he's 5th out of that group.  

1st: no he was not on a pitch count until day 1. He came in recovering from ACL surgery and got on the mat as soon as he could given the timeline. He didn't miss any matches and wrestled high level competition from the start with NATO, Lizak, Rivera, etc...He didn't get held out of matches at all until after his loss to Rivera at Midlands. He missed the Rivera dual, but wrestled against Picc. 

To me, the true "pitch count" thing doesn't start until his third year when he skipped the Princeton dual to prepare for the US Open (are you really going to hit him for skipping Glory so that he could wrestle Cruz, Vito, and NATO?) Notably, we now know that he was wrestling on a torn ACL at this point. Are we all just going to pretend that isn't an injury that ends the season for most athletes? Just because he was still dominant on one leg (and then zero), doesn't mean it wasn't a serious injury worthy of close management. 

On the Suriano point, either stupid or disingenuous. He was still in redshirt at that point. He remained in redshirt for another month. Most people expected him to redshirt the whole year. It wasn't even a talking point at the dual.

The other thing to consider with win totals is that guys just don't wrestle the same amount of matches anymore. nobody is ever going to touch 159 because few wrestlers will ever even wrestle 159 matches total in their careers.

Edited by uncle bernard

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I'll set the over/under at 3 months and take the over. We're gonna have an 0-0 guy #1 seed in the National tournament. 

Not possible. He needs to wrestle at B1G first. Perhaps 0-0 going into B1G?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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7 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

How many people are “all time greats”?

Hypothetically Stieber and above since that is the crux of the argument.

Ncaa placement/Win %/Quality of Competition/Details of Losses/Opponent offense surrendered/career record

Lee matches him on the 1st one (assuming a 4th this year).  The rest are all clearly in Stieber's court.

If you factor the other items as much as NCAA placement then guys like Zain, Gable, Nickal, Nolf, Askren and Taylor have valid arguments.  the real old timers like Tom Brands, Gable, Kemp, Uetake, etc. are just before my time.  Recency bias is always alive and well.

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45 minutes ago, Class said:

How about a pretty clear and unbiased indicator of greatness.  Opponents offensive points allowed.  Uetake never gave one up from tales of his legend and many consider him the greatest ever because of it.

I would make a wager that Spencer already has given up more takedowns than Dake, Stieber and Cael combined, and it probably isn't close, and he has significantly less matches than all of them.

Heck, in his last NCAA tourney, which had his 2 best competitors removed because the EIWA sat out, he surrendered takedowns to Cardinale and Shroeder.

He isn't an all time great.  Not even close.

You know what else is a clear and unbiased indicator of greatness: offensive points scored. 

I'd be willing to wager that Spencer scores more points than all of those guys, probably twice as much as Dake. Heck, in his last NCAA tournament, Dake failed to score more than 3 points in two of his matches, including against an unseeded wrestler. How can you be an all-time great if you can't score on Mark Martin???

It's clear you don't like Lee. That's fine. But you're trying to work backwards from that dislike to discount his accomplishments, which is strange. He's one of the most prolific scorers this sport has ever seen. 

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Interestingly if he happens to not win this year and goes into comparisons with other 3 time champs there will be many put in front of him.  However, if he wins his 4th then his is in that small group of 4 timers and obviously many here think he could be a solid 3rd, or 4th.

Pressure is on.  Either way if Suriano, Vito and Glory are all there he will either firmly cement himself or have his legacy hit as mentioned above.  The drama will be amazing.  The 2nd half of this season is really going to be fantastic for many reasons.

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5 minutes ago, Class said:

Hypothetically Stieber and above since that is the crux of the argument.

Ncaa placement/Win %/Quality of Competition/Details of Losses/Opponent offense surrendered/career record

Lee matches him on the 1st one (assuming a 4th this year).  The rest are all clearly in Stieber's court.

If you factor the other items as much as NCAA placement then guys like Zain, Gable, Nickal, Nolf, Askren and Taylor have valid arguments.  the real old timers like Tom Brands, Gable, Kemp, Uetake, etc. are just before my time.  Recency bias is always alive and well.

this gives away the game. no other person would ever think to include these two things lol, especially points given up. you found the weakest part of his wrestling and arbitrarily made it a criteria so you could dock him. and these takedowns you're talking about? he's up by 10+ points lmao. they have literally zero impact on the match. you can't find a more meaningless stat than that.

i don't even know what you mean by details of losses either. 

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3 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

You know what else is a clear and unbiased indicator of greatness: offensive points scored. 

I'd be willing to wager that Spencer scores more points than all of those guys, probably twice as much as Dake. Heck, in his last NCAA tournament, Dake failed to score more than 3 points in two of his matches, including against an unseeded wrestler. How can you be an all-time great if you can't score on Mark Martin???

It's clear you don't like Lee. That's fine. But you're trying to work backwards from that dislike to discount his accomplishments, which is strange. He's one of the most prolific scorers this sport has ever seen. 

No argument here.  Dake was boring and had he not gone up to 165 and been so successful post collegiately his legacy would be perhaps par with Pat Smith.

David Taylor, Nolf and Logan Stieber were amazing point scorers with Stieber being similar in the top position.

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2 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

this gives away the game. no other person would ever think to include these two things lol, especially points given up. you found the weakest part of his wrestling and arbitrarily made it a criteria so you could dock him. and these takedowns you're talking about? he's up by 10+ points lmao. they have literally zero impact on the match. you can't find a more meaningless stat than that.

i don't even know what you mean by details of losses either. 

Cmon -- The most impressive thing about any wrestler is going through a season unscored upon.  It is so rare and an amazing accomplishment.

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5 minutes ago, Class said:

Hypothetically Stieber and above since that is the crux of the argument.

Ncaa placement/Win %/Quality of Competition/Details of Losses/Opponent offense surrendered/career record

Lee matches him on the 1st one (assuming a 4th this year).  The rest are all clearly in Stieber's court.

If you factor the other items as much as NCAA placement then guys like Zain, Gable, Nickal, Nolf, Askren and Taylor have valid arguments.  the real old timers like Tom Brands, Gable, Kemp, Uetake, etc. are just before my time.  Recency bias is always alive and well.

You just aren't giving enough credit to the version of Lee in March.  Because, lets be clear, March is really ALL that matters.  I get knocking Lee for his offseason, to a degree, but even Dake lost in similar fashion his 1st 2 seasons.  After that he dominated and after that, Lee has also.  He has had less matches, with Covid causing that even more than any injuries, but Lee is 30-0 since, with 28 bonus wins and the 2 regular decisions were 7-0 and 8-1.  

Here is his actual performance at NCAA's:

2018: 18-0, 18-0, FALL(Nick Piccinini)i, FALL(NaTo) and 5-1(Suriano)

2019:  18-0, 10-1, FALL, 11-4(Nick Piccininni) and 5-0(Mueller)

2020:  Didn't happen(Covid)

2021:  16-1, 15-5, 10-2, 11-0 and 7-0

 

You simply can't ignore that level of dominance while focusing almost solely on injury shortened regular seasons and overvaluing losses in his true freshman and true soph years.  In fact, except for Bresser, he has crushed everyone else multiple times, beating Rivera (12-0 and 7-4), Piccininni(10-5, FALL, 11-4 and 12-3) and NATO(3-2 and FALL).

Make no mistake, IF Lee wins NCAA's again in similar fashion, he ABSOLUTELY is an All Time Great.  Now, I would have no issue if someone wants to still argue the other 4xers over him, but he would absolutely deserve to be in the conversation above EVERYONE else...

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32 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

1st: no he was not on a pitch count until day 1. He came in recovering from ACL surgery and got on the mat as soon as he could given the timeline.

Freshman year: He did not wrestle vs Rutgers on December 8. He then DID wrestle 3 matches in the UNI Open December 9. 

To suggest he wasn't ready on the 8th and then magically was ready on the 9th is silly and anyone with common sense could figure that out. 

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14 minutes ago, Class said:

No argument here.  Dake was boring and had he not gone up to 165 and been so successful post collegiately his legacy would be perhaps par with Pat Smith.

David Taylor, Nolf and Logan Stieber were amazing point scorers with Stieber being similar in the top position.

 

17 minutes ago, Class said:

Cmon -- The most impressive thing about any wrestler is going through a season unscored upon.  It is so rare and an amazing accomplishment.

Styles dictate that and some just don't lend themselves to it.  David Taylor, Nolf, Metcalf, Brands, etc. were all exceptional wrestlers with a nonstop pace that scored in bunches.  They literally wrestled EVERY second of the match, but that left them open to takedowns from time to time.  But, it also meant those takedowns were almost always irrelevant.

Meanwhile, you had a guy like Mack Lewnes that would spend half the match holding center and the rest with a guy on his legs, but his hips and thighs were so strong that he almost never was squared up on(until Borschel).  Point being, it actually is a lot easier to hold position and play defense than it is to score in bunches at the DI level.  Now that isn't to say that someone like Dake doesn't deserve immense credit for being able to dictate positions and control every match, but it is a lot easier to hone a style(as long as the refs don't call stalling) that isn't scored upon than it is one that scores a lot...

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6 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Freshman year: He did not wrestle vs Rutgers on December 8. He then DID wrestle 3 matches in the UNI Open December 9. 

To suggest he wasn't ready on the 8th and then magically was ready on the 9th is silly and anyone with common sense could figure that out. 

That’s because he was still in redshirt and they needed to see how the knee held up. If he wrestled in the dual his redshirt is gone. He competed unattached at the UNI Open preserving his redshirt.

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5 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

You just aren't giving enough credit to the version of Lee in March.  Because, lets be clear, March is really ALL that matters.  I get knocking Lee for his offseason, to a degree, but even Dake lost in similar fashion his 1st 2 seasons.  After that he dominated and after that, Lee has also.  He has had less matches, with Covid causing that even more than any injuries, but Lee is 30-0 since, with 28 bonus wins and the 2 regular decisions were 7-0 and 8-1.  

Here is his actual performance at NCAA's:

2018: 18-0, 18-0, FALL(Nick Piccinini)i, FALL(NaTo) and 5-1(Suriano)

2019:  18-0, 10-1, FALL, 11-4(Nick Piccininni) and 5-0(Mueller)

2020:  Didn't happen(Covid)

2021:  16-1, 15-5, 10-2, 11-0 and 7-0

 

You simply can't ignore that level of dominance while focusing almost solely on injury shortened regular seasons and overvaluing losses in his true freshman and true soph years.  In fact, except for Bresser, he has crushed everyone else multiple times, beating Rivera (12-0 and 7-4), Piccininni(10-5, FALL, 11-4 and 12-3) and NATO(3-2 and FALL).

Make no mistake, IF Lee wins NCAA's again in similar fashion, he ABSOLUTELY is an All Time Great.  Now, I would have no issue if someone wants to still argue the other 4xers over him, but he would absolutely deserve to be in the conversation above EVERYONE else...

If March is ALL that matters then I concur.  I wish this wasn't the case but clearly everything has trended in this direction, which is ruining the sport.  You actually called the season the "offseason".

"was going to buy a ticket to the dual but then I heard you say all that matters is NCAAs in March and thought better of it".

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7 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Freshman year: He did not wrestle vs Rutgers on December 8. He then DID wrestle 3 matches in the UNI Open December 9. 

To suggest he wasn't ready on the 8th and then magically was ready on the 9th is silly and anyone with common sense could figure that out. 

Because they weren't sure they were pulling his redshirt yet and that is OFTEN the case with true freshmen...

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1 minute ago, Class said:

If March is ALL that matters then I concur.  I wish this wasn't the case but clearly everything has trended in this direction, which is ruining the sport.  You actually called the season the "offseason".

"was going to buy a ticket to the dual but then I heard you say all that matters is NCAAs in March and thought better of it".

Trust me I HATE IT!!!!  I would love a system that mandates more participation during the regular season.  I WANT duals to matter.  But, this sport decides team titles based on that last tournament as well as whether or not you are a Champion, Finalist and or an All American.  Teams want to avoid injuries more than ever and Covid has really pushed that trend to its limits.  I really think the days of 40+ matches are gone at the DI level and even 20+ matches are going to be few and far between.  

Sad, but true  :(

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10 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Freshman year: He did not wrestle vs Rutgers on December 8. He then DID wrestle 3 matches in the UNI Open December 9. 

To suggest he wasn't ready on the 8th and then magically was ready on the 9th is silly and anyone with common sense could figure that out. 

can you read? i never suggested he wasn't ready. they hadn't decided if he was going to redshirt or not. the common view heading into that year was that they weren't good enough to win a title with him, so why not save his eligibility for a year when they would be? the acl recovery keeping him off the mat until november added more weight to this view. it was a surprise when they pulled him.

it's like asking why cael held mark hall out against jim wilson and ryan preisch while he was clearly "ready" because he was wrestling opens. because they hadn't decided to use him yet. any person with common sense could figure that out.

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1 minute ago, uncle bernard said:

can you read? i never suggested he wasn't ready. they hadn't decided if he was going to redshirt or not. the common view heading into that year was that they weren't good enough to win a title with him, so why not save his eligibility for a year when they would be? the acl recovery keeping him off the mat until november added more weight to this view. it was a surprise when they pulled him.

it's like asking why cael held mark hall out against jim wilson and ryan preisch while he was clearly "ready" because he was wrestling opens. because they hadn't decided to use him yet. any person with common sense could figure that out.

Wait...Did you just use a common sense argument literally citing an example of a PSU wrestler doing nearly the same thing?  Mind blown!

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