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Jimmy Cinnabon

Call me crazy, but Ferrari is more of a lock to win than Spencer

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6 hours ago, BTC said:

No one is touching Gable this year. I wonder what the odds are on him going undefeated cause I would take that bet.

Anyone know how Mekhi has looked this year? If he's back to his NCAA champ form then he's my pick to win it.

Mekhi is healthy currently 11-0.
8 out 11 were MD, TF, or pins.

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1 hour ago, Gmann2277 said:

Mekhi is healthy currently 11-0.
8 out 11 were MD, TF, or pins.

Mekhi and Yianni are both undefeated and both up a weight. Does anyone know the history of NCAA champs who move up a weight? Are they just as likely to win, less likely or even more likely?

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2 minutes ago, NJDan said:

Mekhi and Yianni are both undefeated and both up a weight. Does anyone know the history of NCAA champs who move up a weight? Are they just as likely to win, less likely or even more likely?

There are at least three instances where an NCAA champion moved up and won that I can think of off the top of my head.

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52 minutes ago, CoachWrestling said:

JB, Dake, Bo, Snyder I can think of in a 20 seconds. 

Of course, guys have gone up and won. But have others gone up and lost. I don't have a list, but I am sure it's happened. Maybe more, maybe less than guys going up and winning. I don't know.

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Here is the criteria for selecting the Hodge award winner:

How wrestlers are selected for the award. Originally created to celebrate the pin in college wrestling, the Dan Hodge Trophy is based on seven criteria including record, number of pins, dominance, past credentials, quality of competition, sportsmanship/citizenship and heart.

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On 12/24/2021 at 11:44 AM, klehner said:

There are at least three instances where an NCAA champion moved up and won that I can think of off the top of my head.

How about Mark Schultz? Moved up and beat 2X Champ Ed Banach - as well as former Champ Matt Reiss. Schultz 16-8 win is one of the all time entertaining wins in NCAA history.

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I might be underrating Spencer, but its hard to evaluate since his health seems to be a bit of an unknown.  Even having watched him.  He looks like he has come close to mastering the limitations of his knees.  But will it be enough for Suriano and Arujau?  Probably.  I've roughly approximated title chances in each weight classes with a couple notable competitors noted in each weight class.  

285 95% Gable; None

149 75% Yianni; Sasso, Wilson, Lovett

133 70% RBY; Fix, DeSanto

197 65% Ferrari; Dean

174 60% Starocci; Kemerer, Lewis, Hidlay

184 55% Brooks; Hidlay, Poznanski, Keckeisen, Truax

141 50% Lee; Eierman, Rivera, Micic

125 50% Lee; Suriano, Arujau, Glory

157 45% Carr; Deakin, Robb, O'Connor

165 20% O'Toole; Wick, Griffith, Kharchla, Hamiti, Marinelli

Edited by flyingcement

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7 hours ago, flyingcement said:

I might be underrating Spencer, but its hard to evaluate since his health seems to be a bit of an unknown.  Even having watched him.  He looks like he has come close to mastering the limitations of his knees.  But will it be enough for Suriano and Arujau?  Probably.  I've roughly approximated title chances in each weight classes with a couple notable competitors noted in each weight class.  

285 95% Gable; None

149 75% Yianni; Sasso, Wilson, Lovett

133 70% RBY; Fix, DeSanto

197 65% Ferrari; Dean

174 60% Starocci; Kemerer, Lewis, Hidlay

184 55% Brooks; Hidlay, Poznanski, Keckeisen, Truax

141 50% Lee; Eierman, Rivera, Micic

125 50% Lee; Suriano, Arujau, Glory

157 45% Carr; Deakin, Robb, O'Connor

165 20% O'Toole; Wick, Griffith, Kharchla, Hamiti, Marinelli

So, about a 0.3% chance of 9 repeat champs. Sure, seems about right, maybe should be a bit lower, but whatever.

The only places I might quibble are where there are a lot of close contenders like 141 (and I say that as an unabashed Nick Lee fan) and 174. But then again, what do I know?

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7 hours ago, flyingcement said:

I might be underrating Spencer, but its hard to evaluate since his health seems to be a bit of an unknown.  Even having watched him.  He looks like he has come close to mastering the limitations of his knees.  But will it be enough for Suriano and Arujau?  Probably.  I've roughly approximated title chances in each weight classes with a couple notable competitors noted in each weight class.  

285 95% Gable; None

149 75% Yianni; Sasso, Wilson, Lovett

133 70% RBY; Fix, DeSanto

197 65% Ferrari; Dean

174 60% Starocci; Kemerer, Lewis, Hidlay

184 55% Brooks; Hidlay, Poznanski, Keckeisen, Truax

141 50% Lee; Eierman, Rivera, Micic

125 50% Lee; Suriano, Arujau, Glory

157 45% Carr; Deakin, Robb, O'Connor

165 20% O'Toole; Wick, Griffith, Kharchla, Hamiti, Marinelli

You realize Griffith was the champ at 165, not O'Toole, right?  You also left out runner-up Wentzel, as well as Wittlake who took 4th, Cam Amine, Anthony Valencia, and Hartman (who made the semis).  

Paris, Cass, and Kerk are competitors for Steveson at 285.

Starocci is too high at 60% chance to repeat.  Same for Yianni (75%) and RBY (70%).

Ford Focus has other competitors than Max at 195 like Nino, Elam, Warner, Woodley, and Buchannan.

You left out Myles Amine at 184.

Need to include Teemer at 157.

Brandon Courtney is not on the same level as Suriano, Arujau, and Glory, but he is a returning runner-up and should be listed as a contender.

 

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1 minute ago, Frank C said:

Only one lock this Year

Gable

 

 

 

 

Gable is the only lock.

Even if it's not a lock, I think it would be a MAJOR shock if Yianni doesn't win 149. 

And Hamiti obviously is a lock for four time titlist with zero losses and no red shirt.  Cementing himself firmly above the cruciferous coach of Penn State.  

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3 hours ago, flyingcement said:

Gable is the only lock.

Even if it's not a lock, I think it would be a MAJOR shock if Yianni doesn't win 149. 

And Hamiti obviously is a lock for four time titlist with zero losses and no red shirt.  Cementing himself firmly above the cruciferous coach of Penn State.  

Hamiti’s bonus rate is crazy…he’s honestly gotta be in Hodge consideration at this point.

Or, does he take a couple losses at Big Ten’s and get the 8 seed at NCAA’s with Marinelli #1?

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