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Jimmy Cinnabon

Seems like there's a real chance NCAA gets cancelled this year

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COVID is spreading like wildfire, even if Omicron is less deadly.  Tournaments are being cancelled already.  Seasons are being threatened.

I would bet NCAAs doesn't happen this year and another COVID year is awarded.

We will see a lot of 30 year old seniors wrestling soon.

Edited by Jimmy Cinnabon

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17 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

COVID is spreading like wildfire, even if Omicron is less deadly.  Tournaments are being cancelled already.  Seasons are being threatened.

I would bet NCAAs doesn't happen this year and another COVID year is awarded.

We will see a lot of 30 year old seniors wrestling soon.

Significant understanding would scare any linguist away.

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32 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

COVID is spreading like wildfire, even if Omicron is less deadly.  Tournaments are being cancelled already.  Seasons are being threatened.

I would bet NCAAs doesn't happen this year and another COVID year is awarded.

We will see a lot of 30 year old seniors wrestling soon.

You should stop betting.  

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Nope. Omicron will peak in mid-Jan. and then drop off precipitously. By March, low levels everywhere because it's so contagious that every non-vaxxed person will have caught it by then. Hospitalizations and deaths will also disappear because this version is less severe.

Disclaimer: I am neither a doctor nor an epidemiologist. I stand by my prediction nonetheless.

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3 minutes ago, Fletcher said:

Hospitalizations and deaths will also disappear because this version is less severe.

Disclaimer: I am neither a doctor nor an epidemiologist. I stand by my prediction nonetheless.

That's not how it works.  If each Delta infection leads to two other infections, and Omicron leads to four other infections (twice as infectious), and if Delta results in 1% hospitalization and Omicron results in .1% hospitalizations (1/10th as severe), then after ten iterations Omicron would lead to 1,000 hospitalizations and Delta would lead to 10 hospitalizations.  Exponential growth dwarfs reduction in severity.

Your disclaimer is accurate.

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1 hour ago, klehner said:

That's not how it works.  If each Delta infection leads to two other infections, and Omicron leads to four other infections (twice as infectious), and if Delta results in 1% hospitalization and Omicron results in .1% hospitalizations (1/10th as severe), then after ten iterations Omicron would lead to 1,000 hospitalizations and Delta would lead to 10 hospitalizations.  Exponential growth dwarfs reduction in severity.

Your disclaimer is accurate.

You conveniently omitted the first part. High numbers of vaxxed and recovered people stops the exponential growth. The exponential growth is happening now and will drop off in a few weeks. Also Omicron has overtaken Delta, so the 10 hospitalizations is more accurate than the 1000 in your example.

Feel free to screenshot this and throw it back in my face in March if I'm wrong.

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18 minutes ago, Fletcher said:

You conveniently omitted the first part. High numbers of vaxxed and recovered people stops the exponential growth. The exponential growth is happening now and will drop off in a few weeks. Also Omicron has overtaken Delta, so the 10 hospitalizations is more accurate than the 1000 in your example.

Feel free to screenshot this and throw it back in my face in March if I'm wrong.

https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/12/28/22855392/fully-vaccinated-people-spread-omicron-variant-to-others-cdc

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Saw this quote today in NYTimes:

 

"John Bell, a professor of medicine at Oxford University and an adviser to the British government, said that Omicron was “not the same disease we were seeing a year ago.”“The horrific scenes that we saw a year ago of intensive care units being full, lots of people dying prematurely, that is now history, in my view, and I think we should be reassured that that’s likely to continue,” he told the BBC on Tuesday."

 

I'm going with Mr. Bell's opinion.  Let em wrestle.

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4 minutes ago, BerniePragle said:

"News source"?  Lol^2

The article....quotes...the CDC...

"The Omicron variant likely will spread more easily than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and how easily Omicron spreads compared to Delta remains unknown. CDC expects that anyone with Omicron infection can spread the virus to others, even if they are vaccinated or don’t have symptoms."

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4 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

COVID is spreading like wildfire, even if Omicron is less deadly.  Tournaments are being cancelled already.  Seasons are being threatened.

I would bet NCAAs doesn't happen this year and another COVID year is awarded.

We will see a lot of 30 year old seniors wrestling soon.

I fear by next year we will have a lot of old guys yelling GET OFF MY MAT!! and incoming youngsters won't even get a chance to wrestle.  :(

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The probability that the NCAA D1 wrestling tournament occurs is directly proportional to the percentage of wrestlers, team staff, and NCAA staff who are fully vaccinated. The probability of spectators allowed is likely equal to the percentage of spectators who communicate willingnees to show proof of vax and where a mask.

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5 minutes ago, RichB said:

The probability that the NCAA D1 wrestling tournament occurs is directly proportional to the percentage of wrestlers, team staff, and NCAA staff who are fully vaccinated. The probability of spectators allowed is likely equal to the percentage of spectators who communicate willingnees to show proof of vax and where a mask.

How does that make sense if the vaccinated can get it and spread it?  The rules/protocol need to keep with the changes.

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40 minutes ago, Idaho said:

The article....quotes...the CDC...

"The Omicron variant likely will spread more easily than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and how easily Omicron spreads compared to Delta remains unknown. CDC expects that anyone with Omicron infection can spread the virus to others, even if they are vaccinated or don’t have symptoms."

Ok.  So if I quote whoever, then that unquestionably means they said it?  Maybe the CDC said this, maybe not.  I honestly can't tell from this.  Why would the "news source" here not cite specifically where the CDC said this.  If I look around this organization, I kinda don't think they would qualify as a news source for me.  But if I'm looking to reinforce a preconceived notion, I guess it would work.

Even the "can spread the virus" is at best misleading.  A meteor can land on my house tomorrow.  Probably much more likely a snowflake will though.  I live in Upstate NY.

Edited by BerniePragle

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Because if "everyone is vaccinated" it is far less likely that Omicron will get into teams, and spread in teams. Would not be surprised if fully vaxed unsymptomatic are allowed to compete against fully vaxed. Obviously chose 50 or more alternates instead of 20.

Does wrestling want the event to happen, or do they want a political story. 

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5 minutes ago, BerniePragle said:

Ok.  So if I quote whoever, then that unquestionably means they said it?  Maybe the CDC said this, maybe not.  I honestly can't tell from this.  Why would the "news source" here not cite specifically where the CDC said this.  If I look around this organization, I kinda don't think they would qualify as a news source for me.  But if I'm looking to reinforce a preconceived notion, I guess it would work.

You honestly can't tell? They literally quote the CDC and provided a link that is underlined to the CDC quote on the CDC website.... which says the exact same thing because it's their quote.  What more do you want? 

 

Screen Shot 2021-12-28 at 3.03.53 PM.png

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2 minutes ago, Idaho said:

You honestly can't tell? They literally quote the CDC and provided a link that is underlined to the CDC quote on the CDC website.... which says the exact same thing because it's their quote.  What more do you want? 

 

Screen Shot 2021-12-28 at 3.03.53 PM.png

No.  I did not realize that underlined section was a link.  Sorry.  Did you follow the link and see the "Tools to Fight Omicron".  At best this "news source" cherry picked one part of what the CDC wrote and used it to mislead people.  My opinion...

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4 minutes ago, BerniePragle said:

No.  I did not realize that underlined section was a link.  Sorry.  Did you follow the link and see the "Tools to Fight Omicron".  At best this "news source" cherry picked one part of what the CDC wrote and used it to mislead people.  My opinion...

Um.... did you read the end of the article... you know the part about fighting against Omicron? Did you read the title of what the article was about?  It's okay for you to be anti-religion but still acknowledge that a religiously based article got it's facts straight. 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2021-12-28 at 3.16.46 PM.png

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3 hours ago, Fletcher said:

Nope. Omicron will peak in mid-Jan. and then drop off precipitously. By March, low levels everywhere because it's so contagious that every non-vaxxed person will have caught it by then. Hospitalizations and deaths will also disappear because this version is less severe.

Disclaimer: I am neither a doctor nor an epidemiologist. I stand by my prediction nonetheless.

I stand by your prediction as well...

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