Jimmy Cinnabon 411 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 (edited) COVID is spreading like wildfire, even if Omicron is less deadly. Tournaments are being cancelled already. Seasons are being threatened. I would bet NCAAs doesn't happen this year and another COVID year is awarded. We will see a lot of 30 year old seniors wrestling soon. Edited December 28, 2021 by Jimmy Cinnabon 1 red blades reacted to this Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wrestleknownothing 1,501 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: I would bet ... But who is fool enough to take it? 4 4 4 scribe, manatree, wrestlingphish and 9 others reacted to this Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TripNSweep 762 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: COVID is spreading like wildfire, even if Omicron is less deadly. Tournaments are being cancelled already. Seasons are being threatened. I would bet NCAAs doesn't happen this year and another COVID year is awarded. We will see a lot of 30 year old seniors wrestling soon. Significant understanding would scare any linguist away. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TripNSweep 762 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 19 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: I would bet NCAAs doesn't happen this year and another COVID year is awarded. Yeah but you wouldn't pay if you lost. Just like some other wagers you made. 1 manatree reacted to this Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mokoma 326 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 32 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: COVID is spreading like wildfire, even if Omicron is less deadly. Tournaments are being cancelled already. Seasons are being threatened. I would bet NCAAs doesn't happen this year and another COVID year is awarded. We will see a lot of 30 year old seniors wrestling soon. You should stop betting. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BerniePragle 382 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Mokoma said: You should stop betting. I'll bet he doesn't. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
portajohn 439 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 Or they'll just follow the same protocol as last year's NCAA's Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fletcher 1,100 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 Nope. Omicron will peak in mid-Jan. and then drop off precipitously. By March, low levels everywhere because it's so contagious that every non-vaxxed person will have caught it by then. Hospitalizations and deaths will also disappear because this version is less severe. Disclaimer: I am neither a doctor nor an epidemiologist. I stand by my prediction nonetheless. 6 1 gowrestle, Waxpacks, TLS62pa and 4 others reacted to this Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
klehner 734 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Fletcher said: Hospitalizations and deaths will also disappear because this version is less severe. Disclaimer: I am neither a doctor nor an epidemiologist. I stand by my prediction nonetheless. That's not how it works. If each Delta infection leads to two other infections, and Omicron leads to four other infections (twice as infectious), and if Delta results in 1% hospitalization and Omicron results in .1% hospitalizations (1/10th as severe), then after ten iterations Omicron would lead to 1,000 hospitalizations and Delta would lead to 10 hospitalizations. Exponential growth dwarfs reduction in severity. Your disclaimer is accurate. 2 Le duke and Elevator reacted to this Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fletcher 1,100 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 1 hour ago, klehner said: That's not how it works. If each Delta infection leads to two other infections, and Omicron leads to four other infections (twice as infectious), and if Delta results in 1% hospitalization and Omicron results in .1% hospitalizations (1/10th as severe), then after ten iterations Omicron would lead to 1,000 hospitalizations and Delta would lead to 10 hospitalizations. Exponential growth dwarfs reduction in severity. Your disclaimer is accurate. You conveniently omitted the first part. High numbers of vaxxed and recovered people stops the exponential growth. The exponential growth is happening now and will drop off in a few weeks. Also Omicron has overtaken Delta, so the 10 hospitalizations is more accurate than the 1000 in your example. Feel free to screenshot this and throw it back in my face in March if I'm wrong. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
swoopdown 628 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 18 minutes ago, Fletcher said: You conveniently omitted the first part. High numbers of vaxxed and recovered people stops the exponential growth. The exponential growth is happening now and will drop off in a few weeks. Also Omicron has overtaken Delta, so the 10 hospitalizations is more accurate than the 1000 in your example. Feel free to screenshot this and throw it back in my face in March if I'm wrong. https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/12/28/22855392/fully-vaccinated-people-spread-omicron-variant-to-others-cdc Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Housebuye 2,437 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 Dumb thread 1 Mphillips reacted to this Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fletcher 1,100 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, swoopdown said: https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/12/28/22855392/fully-vaccinated-people-spread-omicron-variant-to-others-cdc Vaccine also didn't stop transmission of the original, yet positivity dropped below 1% last summer. Go figure. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BerniePragle 382 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 34 minutes ago, swoopdown said: https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/12/28/22855392/fully-vaccinated-people-spread-omicron-variant-to-others-cdc "News source"? Lol^2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AnklePicker 646 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 Saw this quote today in NYTimes: "John Bell, a professor of medicine at Oxford University and an adviser to the British government, said that Omicron was “not the same disease we were seeing a year ago.”“The horrific scenes that we saw a year ago of intensive care units being full, lots of people dying prematurely, that is now history, in my view, and I think we should be reassured that that’s likely to continue,” he told the BBC on Tuesday." I'm going with Mr. Bell's opinion. Let em wrestle. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Idaho 1,344 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, BerniePragle said: "News source"? Lol^2 The article....quotes...the CDC... "The Omicron variant likely will spread more easily than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and how easily Omicron spreads compared to Delta remains unknown. CDC expects that anyone with Omicron infection can spread the virus to others, even if they are vaccinated or don’t have symptoms." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ionel 2,534 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 4 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: COVID is spreading like wildfire, even if Omicron is less deadly. Tournaments are being cancelled already. Seasons are being threatened. I would bet NCAAs doesn't happen this year and another COVID year is awarded. We will see a lot of 30 year old seniors wrestling soon. I fear by next year we will have a lot of old guys yelling GET OFF MY MAT!! and incoming youngsters won't even get a chance to wrestle. :( Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RichB 227 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 The probability that the NCAA D1 wrestling tournament occurs is directly proportional to the percentage of wrestlers, team staff, and NCAA staff who are fully vaccinated. The probability of spectators allowed is likely equal to the percentage of spectators who communicate willingnees to show proof of vax and where a mask. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ionel 2,534 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, RichB said: The probability that the NCAA D1 wrestling tournament occurs is directly proportional to the percentage of wrestlers, team staff, and NCAA staff who are fully vaccinated. The probability of spectators allowed is likely equal to the percentage of spectators who communicate willingnees to show proof of vax and where a mask. How does that make sense if the vaccinated can get it and spread it? The rules/protocol need to keep with the changes. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BerniePragle 382 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Idaho said: The article....quotes...the CDC... "The Omicron variant likely will spread more easily than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and how easily Omicron spreads compared to Delta remains unknown. CDC expects that anyone with Omicron infection can spread the virus to others, even if they are vaccinated or don’t have symptoms." Ok. So if I quote whoever, then that unquestionably means they said it? Maybe the CDC said this, maybe not. I honestly can't tell from this. Why would the "news source" here not cite specifically where the CDC said this. If I look around this organization, I kinda don't think they would qualify as a news source for me. But if I'm looking to reinforce a preconceived notion, I guess it would work. Even the "can spread the virus" is at best misleading. A meteor can land on my house tomorrow. Probably much more likely a snowflake will though. I live in Upstate NY. Edited December 28, 2021 by BerniePragle Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RichB 227 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 Because if "everyone is vaccinated" it is far less likely that Omicron will get into teams, and spread in teams. Would not be surprised if fully vaxed unsymptomatic are allowed to compete against fully vaxed. Obviously chose 50 or more alternates instead of 20. Does wrestling want the event to happen, or do they want a political story. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Idaho 1,344 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, BerniePragle said: Ok. So if I quote whoever, then that unquestionably means they said it? Maybe the CDC said this, maybe not. I honestly can't tell from this. Why would the "news source" here not cite specifically where the CDC said this. If I look around this organization, I kinda don't think they would qualify as a news source for me. But if I'm looking to reinforce a preconceived notion, I guess it would work. You honestly can't tell? They literally quote the CDC and provided a link that is underlined to the CDC quote on the CDC website.... which says the exact same thing because it's their quote. What more do you want? 1 1 Mphillips and Paul158 reacted to this Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BerniePragle 382 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Idaho said: You honestly can't tell? They literally quote the CDC and provided a link that is underlined to the CDC quote on the CDC website.... which says the exact same thing because it's their quote. What more do you want? No. I did not realize that underlined section was a link. Sorry. Did you follow the link and see the "Tools to Fight Omicron". At best this "news source" cherry picked one part of what the CDC wrote and used it to mislead people. My opinion... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Idaho 1,344 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, BerniePragle said: No. I did not realize that underlined section was a link. Sorry. Did you follow the link and see the "Tools to Fight Omicron". At best this "news source" cherry picked one part of what the CDC wrote and used it to mislead people. My opinion... Um.... did you read the end of the article... you know the part about fighting against Omicron? Did you read the title of what the article was about? It's okay for you to be anti-religion but still acknowledge that a religiously based article got it's facts straight. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RED 106 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 3 hours ago, Fletcher said: Nope. Omicron will peak in mid-Jan. and then drop off precipitously. By March, low levels everywhere because it's so contagious that every non-vaxxed person will have caught it by then. Hospitalizations and deaths will also disappear because this version is less severe. Disclaimer: I am neither a doctor nor an epidemiologist. I stand by my prediction nonetheless. I stand by your prediction as well... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
