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If he has his redshirt pulled, these are his scheduled opponents in duals:

McKee, Mn

Schroeder, Pur

DeAugustino, NW

Cardani, Ill 

Hildebrandt, PSU

Heinselman, tOSU

Barnett, Wis

Mastrogiovanni, Ok St

Cronin, Neb

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Iowa fans are spoiled by Spencer, but Ayala is excellent a real title threat...down the line.  I agree with @Perry the highest I could realistically see him (presuming health for the rest of the field is 4th.  I just have a hard time picturing how he beats either Glory or Arujau at this stage (unless he gets Glory in the 1/4s right off the scale).  I can see HOW he would beat Suriano, but I just don't think he'll have the horsepower.

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18 minutes ago, headshuck said:

Funny how last year’s 3rd-placer that just beat him is an afterthought.

Not an afterthought for me.  I said the highest I could reasonably see him placing is 4th, not that I was predicting or guaranteeing he would place 4th  I was just mentioning the guys I didn't really see a way for him to beat.  Are you saying you can't see Ayala beating McKee?

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4 minutes ago, headshuck said:

Just an observation from this and the Scuffle thread. I’ll take it as few Minnesota fans on forum these days, and the loss of Spencer Lee created a ton of new excitement around Ayala. He’s going to be a good one.

McKee can lose to anyone.

Fair enough.  Hard to argue with McKee's results, he's a terrifying matchup.

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McKee gives up points and takedowns to a lot of opponents.  He wrestles a wide open style.  Some of the other B1G 125’s are going to try to make it a slow paced, one takedown/riding time match with Ayala.  

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1 hour ago, WresFan89 said:

If he has his redshirt pulled, these are his scheduled opponents in duals:

McKee, Mn

Schroeder, Pur

DeAugustino, NW

Cardani, Ill 

Hildebrandt, PSU

Heinselman, tOSU

Barnett, Wis

Mastrogiovanni, Ok St

Cronin, Neb

I like Ayala. Think he has a very bright future. Maybe the Spencer Lee news has me feeling pessimistic but I don't think it's a stretch that Ayala walks away with a losing record against this slate of opponents. He could also, conceivably beat all of them though that would be surprising (not to mention impressive)

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9 hours ago, VakAttack said:

 (unless he gets Glory in the 1/4s right off the scale). 

Real question: can anyone remember a match where this scenario played out? A good kid gets beat by a lesser kid bc they couldn't recover from the cut? It makes all the sense in the world; I just can't think of a specific match.

Edited by jackwebster

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10 hours ago, VakAttack said:

 I can see HOW he would beat Suriano, but I just don't think he'll have the horsepower.

You can see how a freshman who just needed a huge comeback and overtime to beat Noah surtin can beat ncaa champ Nick Suriano? You should let Tom and terry know bc I’m not sure they see how …There is a better chance of Nick Suriano walking off the mat in the  middle of the second period of the big ten finals and throwing his singlet in the stands and disappearing into the night then there is of Ayala beating him 

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37 minutes ago, jackwebster said:

Real question: can anyone remember a match where this scenario played out? A good kid gets beat by a lesser kid bc they couldn't recover from the cut? It makes all the sense in the world; I just can't think of a specific match.

Greg Jones lost in the opening round as the number one seed.  It is speculation that it was weight, but he went up a weight the following year. He didn't AA that year and neither did the guys who beat him.

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10 hours ago, MadMardigain said:

Last years four placer is just on the boarder line to AA acourudng to many people. 

To be fair, we do have a recent CMU turned Penn State staple to compare expectations to.

https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/12111/keener-corey/profile

Keener seemed to have plateaued once he hit his RS-SO season, insofar as ratings go, but his production at nationals was the same all three years.  Even with a more difficult schedule at Penn State, he improved his overall winning percentage and bonus point output.

Even if we expect similar results, he won't just be fringe AA.  Not without a bad draw and a crap tourney.  I expect improved bonus, but a similar winning percentage.  With a more difficult schedule, at that.

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9 hours ago, ionel said:

"guaranteed" is something special, "locks" are handed out like breakfast donuts 

I like donuts (too much).  Seems like Ayala is a lock to compete at an AA level for Iowa.   I would expect that Iowa fans were very pleased with his performance.   Like Starocci, he may be improving every day in their room and could be at a higher level even by March.   

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10 hours ago, VakAttack said:

Iowa fans are spoiled by Spencer, but Ayala is excellent a real title threat...down the line.  I agree with @Perry the highest I could realistically see him (presuming health for the rest of the field is 4th.  I just have a hard time picturing how he beats either Glory or Arujau at this stage (unless he gets Glory in the 1/4s right off the scale).  I can see HOW he would beat Suriano, but I just don't think he'll have the horsepower.

 

10 hours ago, VakAttack said:

Not an afterthought for me.  I said the highest I could reasonably see him placing is 4th, not that I was predicting or guaranteeing he would place 4th  I was just mentioning the guys I didn't really see a way for him to beat.  Are you saying you can't see Ayala beating McKee?

 

11 minutes ago, Elevator said:

I like donuts (too much).  Seems like Ayala is a lock to compete at an AA level for Iowa.   I would expect that Iowa fans were very pleased with his performance.   Like Starocci, he may be improving every day in their room and could be at a higher level even by March.   

 

Ayala is gonna be good, obviously, but any talk of him anywhere around 4th place seems overly optimistic. I am glad that doughnuts came up in this thread, because this is how many true freshmen not named Spencer Lee have made AA at Iowa under Brands Bros.

 

Basic Doughnut Recipe | Yummy.ph

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Hes talented, but a little undersized and he has work to do on bottom. He could beat anyone out of the top 3 guys, but he could lose to anyone if some of those freshman weaknesses are exposed. I love the kid, but feel like he is a fringe AA threat unless he really turns it on this next month. 

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