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1032004

Does NC State get a champ this year?

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Wilson - I think I’d pick him over Sasso right now and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him beat Yianni.  10%?

Hayden - got stuck last night but was in control of the match prior to that.   15%?

Hoagie - now has Amine added to the mix (unless random themat posts are to be believed about Amine going up), but was close with Brooks last year.  15%?

Trumble - wide open weight.  5%?

So, a 45% chance based on my made up odds.  I’m gonna say one of them gets it done.  If I had to pick I’d go Wilson.
 

 

 

 

Edited by 1032004

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1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

Wilson - I think I’d pick him over Sasso right now and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him beat Yianni.  10%?

Hayden - got stuck last night but was in control of the match prior to that.   15%?

Hoagie - now has Amine added to the mix (unless random themat posts are to be believed about Amine going up), but was close with Brooks last year.  15%?

Trumble - wide open weight.  5%?

So, a 45% chance based on my made up odds.

 

Pretty sure that's not how probability works.

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15 minutes ago, klehner said:

So, if they have ten guys each at 10% chance, they have a 100% chance of getting a champ?  Really?

Independent events.

I thought he was giving odds  to  winning their own individual weight classes  not in comparison to each other. 

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21 minutes ago, klehner said:

So, if they have ten guys each at 10% chance, they have a 100% chance of getting a champ?  Really?

Independent events.

Ok fair enough.  

Doing some googling, looks like the math should be as follows based on my original estimates:

1 - (0.9 x 0.85 x 0.85 x 0.95) = 38.2%

themat.com math lesson for today.  I should’ve went to the Cornell ag school.

Edited by 1032004

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3 hours ago, klehner said:

Pretty sure that's not how probability works.

If allowed to make up the odds maybe we allow him to redefine how probability works?  He should've just started with his 45% outcome and worked backwards.  ;_;

 

have no idea what I'm talking about

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38 minutes ago, ionel said:

If allowed to make up the odds maybe we allow him to redefine how probability works?  He should've just started with his 45% outcome and worked backwards.  ;_;

 

have no idea what I'm talking about

Well I already adjusted to the correct math and it’s not even all that much different…

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On 2/19/2022 at 1:56 AM, 1032004 said:

Wilson - I think I’d pick him over Sasso right now and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him beat Yianni.  10%?  Would need to beat both Sasso and Yianni to win NCAA's.  I don't think he beats either.

Hayden - got stuck last night but was in control of the match prior to that.   15%?  Doubt it.  After his loss last night, he would have to beat Ethan Smith and two out of these three at NCAA's: Starocci, Kemmerer, and Mekhi.

Hoagie - now has Amine added to the mix (unless random themat posts are to be believed about Amine going up), but was close with Brooks last year.  15%?  Hoagie has the best chance of all the NC State guys.  His path will likely require him to beat both Amine and then Brooks.  I could see this happening, but he will have to wrestle perfectly.

Trumble - wide open weight.  5%?  Would say less than 5% on him.  He has some nice wins over Elam, Aiello, and Nino.  But the loss to Princeton's backup is head scratching.

So, a 45% chance based on my made up odds.  I’m gonna say one of them gets it done.  If I had to pick I’d go Wilson.

As someone pointed out, you can't just aggregate the percentages for the entire team.

Hoagie has a better chance than the other 3 on your list put together.

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It would be poetic justice if Hayden finally gets a bracket board during a bonus year when he came back and bumped up to with the sole intention of helping his little brother. I think he would have won in 2020 and I was really pulling for him last year (and this year) to avoid being immortalized on the annual "best to never win it" list. Plus we are all seeing that 174 could easily be the bracket that blows up this year.

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18 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Hayden seems to disagree with you 

Recency bias based on his SV win over Mekhi.  Hasn't proven himself against any of the Big 10 guys this year except Iowa's backup who he beat by 2 points.

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19 minutes ago, ShakaAloha said:

Recency bias based on his SV win over Mekhi.  Hasn't proven himself against any of the Big 10 guys this year except Iowa's backup who he beat by 2 points.

Not sure that thinking always works...Wick hasn't proven himself against the Big 10 guys, he beat a defending champ, but only beat Park of Navy by 2 points....

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21 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

And wrestled at “state”?

 

16 minutes ago, Mphillips said:

Unless there were more than one, 'state.'  

Local wrestling phenom Bobby Baker returns home after an impressive weekend at Districts.  Next weekend proves to be quite the jump in competition for Baker when he heads to Regionals. When asked about it Baker responded, "Districts is tough, Regionals is tougher, but my goal has always been to win it all and cement my legacy at State."

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