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Does NC State get a champ this year?

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5 hours ago, ShakaAloha said:

Recency bias based on his SV win over Mekhi.  Hasn't proven himself against any of the Big 10 guys this year except Iowa's backup who he beat by 2 points.

I think he’s proven himself over the last 5 years… Not saying he’ll win, but I think saying Trent has a better chance than the other 3 combined is doing Hayden a disservice.  Unless you think Wilson and Trumble have about a 1% chance, in which case you’re doing Wilson a disservice.

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On 2/19/2022 at 12:07 PM, ionel said:

If allowed to make up the odds maybe we allow him to redefine how probability works?  He should've just started with his 45% outcome and worked backwards.  ;_;

 

have no idea what I'm talking about

That's what we called... Draw the curve, then plot the data.

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2 hours ago, 1032004 said:

I think he’s proven himself over the last 5 years… Not saying he’ll win, but I think saying Trent has a better chance than the other 3 combined is doing Hayden a disservice.  Unless you think Wilson and Trumble have about a 1% chance, in which case you’re doing Wilson a disservice.

Although he won't be favored, Hoagie winning 184 would not be a shock.  He was really close in the finals against Brooks and has beaten Amine in freestyle.  I say he has at least a 25% chance of winning NCAA's, if not more.  

I think Hayden's chances of winning are significantly less, as he recently got pinned by Lautt, has moved up 2 weights from last year, and has no prior record against Starocci, Kemerer, Labriola, Massa, or Smith.  He will probably have to go through at least three of the top guys from the Big 10 to win NCAA's.  

I think Wilson has less than a five percent chance of winning imo.  Yianni has already wrestled him and teched him in freestyle.  This is not a close match, and there is no position that he is better than Yianni in.  I also don't see him beating Sasso.  He will have to go through both to win, and I don't see him getting past Sammy.  

Trumble has multiple losses, including one to the Princeton backup.  To me, that is a less than 1% chance of winning.

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Although he won't be favored, Hoagie winning 184 would not be a shock.  He was really close in the finals against Brooks and has beaten Amine in freestyle.  I say he has at least a 25% chance of winning NCAA's, if not more.  
I think Hayden's chances of winning are significantly less, as he recently got pinned by Lautt, has moved up 2 weights from last year, and has no prior record against Starocci, Kemerer, Labriola, Massa, or Smith.  He will probably have to go through at least three of the top guys from the Big 10 to win NCAA's.  
I think Wilson has less than a five percent chance of winning imo.  Yianni has already wrestled him and teched him in freestyle.  This is not a close match, and there is no position that he is better than Yianni in.  I also don't see him beating Sasso.  He will have to go through both to win, and I don't see him getting past Sammy.  
Trumble has multiple losses, including one to the Princeton backup.  To me, that is a less than 1% chance of winning.
I think you're overstating how close Brooks-Hidlay is. It was close late because the ref swallowed his whistle, but Brooks was clearly the better wrestler.

I agree on all points afterward, though I think there is technically one prior Kem-Hidlay match. Kem won, but it's so remote in time as to be inconsequential.

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On 2/19/2022 at 12:07 PM, ionel said:

If allowed to make up the odds maybe we allow him to redefine how probability works?  He should've just started with his 45% outcome and worked backwards.  ;_;

 

have no idea what I'm talking about

From that line of thinking, I'd say about a 50/50 chance NCST gets a national champ.  Working backward from there, we could give all 4 a 16% chance and poof, there it is.  Not realistic, but elegant in its simplicity.  The Ag school would be proud.  
Even simpler and maybe more realistic would be to forget Hayden and Trumble, and give Tariq and Hoagie 30% chance each and again we're close to 50%.
Hey, this knowing what you want the answer to be and working the facts to fit is fun.  I may have a second career in politics...

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7 hours ago, ShakaAloha said:

Although he won't be favored, Hoagie winning 184 would not be a shock.  He was really close in the finals against Brooks and has beaten Amine in freestyle.  I say he has at least a 25% chance of winning NCAA's, if not more.  

I think Hayden's chances of winning are significantly less, as he recently got pinned by Lautt, has moved up 2 weights from last year, and has no prior record against Starocci, Kemerer, Labriola, Massa, or Smith.  He will probably have to go through at least three of the top guys from the Big 10 to win NCAA's.  

I think Wilson has less than a five percent chance of winning imo.  Yianni has already wrestled him and teched him in freestyle.  This is not a close match, and there is no position that he is better than Yianni in.  I also don't see him beating Sasso.  He will have to go through both to win, and I don't see him getting past Sammy.  

Trumble has multiple losses, including one to the Princeton backup.  To me, that is a less than 1% chance of winning.

Ok so I guess you’re giving Trent a better chance than me, but I do think you’re low on Wilson and Trumble.

Trumble beat last year’s runner up, I think that is worth more than 1%.
 

And I don’t put too much stock in offseason FS results for folkstyle.  Obviously Yianni is a heavy favorite and Wilson may not be able to get by his scrambling which I believe was shown in the FS match.  But I think Wilson matches up well with Sasso - he just needs to finish quickly.

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