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Jimmy Cinnabon

What team is the favorite at NCAAs?

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Many will still say Penn State, but I can't help but think Michigan should be the favorite for NCAAs.  They did win Big 10s after all.

 

Here is why:

  • Suriano will be the 1 seed and favorite to win with lots of bonus.
  • Ragusin will AA.
  • Micic could AA again (though he looked bad at B10s)
  • Storr is unlikely to qualify
  • Lewan is likely to AA
  • Amine is likely to AA
  • I have Massa making the finals, possibly winning it all.
  • Amine will be the 1 seed and favorite to win with lots of bonus.
  • Brucki is likely to AA.
  • I have Parris as a definite AA, as high as 3rd.

I have Michigan with 2 champs in Suriano and Amine, 3 finalists, 9 AAs in total.  That should be enough to top anyone else for the team title.

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Just now, Housebuye said:

Wow. If they do that, they will win. 
 

It seems highly unlikely though. You would need at least 4 finalists given their lineup. 

They will have at least 2 in Suriano and Amine. Massa is a likely finalist.  And even a guy like Brucki and Parris have a shot at making it to the finals.

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2 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Many will still say Penn State, but I can't help but think Michigan should be the favorite for NCAAs.  They did win Big 10s after all.

 

Here is why:

  • Suriano will be the 1 seed and favorite to win with lots of bonus.
  • Ragusin will AA.
  • Micic could AA again (though he looked bad at B10s)
  • Storr is unlikely to qualify
  • Lewan is likely to AA
  • Amine is likely to AA
  • I have Massa making the finals, possibly winning it all.
  • Amine will be the 1 seed and favorite to win with lots of bonus.
  • Brucki is likely to AA.
  • I have Parris as a definite AA, as high as 3rd.

I have Michigan with 2 champs in Suriano and Amine, 3 finalists, 9 AAs in total.  That should be enough to top anyone else for the team title.

Based on your description I have the range of outcomes (pre-bonus points) at 75 - 127.

75 assumes the low end of the range you describe (8th for AA) and 127 is the high end of the range (2nd for AA). That gives a whole lotta credit to Micic.

If we assume "will AA" = upper third of range and "likely AA" = lower half and Micic is round of 12, then your range tightens up to 80 - 97 pre-bonus.

To get to 125 with bonus they will need a lot of things to go right (which they did at B1G, so can't discount it).

Edited by Wrestleknownothing

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2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Based on your description I have the range of outcomes (pre-bonus points) at 75 - 127.

75 assumes the low end of the range you describe (8th for AA) and 127 is the high end of the range (2nd for AA). That gives a whole lotta credit to Micic.

If we assume "will AA" = upper third of range and "likely AA" = lower half and Micic is round of 12, then your range tightens up to 80 - 97 pre-bonus.

To get to 125 with bonus they will need a lot of things to go right (which they did at B1G, so can't discount it).

Who is your projected favorite?

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I'll be pulling for Michigan only because they're an unlikely contender, if not an underdog. 

Nothing about Micic's performance says AA. His 4th at BIG10 was higher than expected, but not because he over-performed, rather because he navigated an unlikely consolation bracket after losing to a guy who might not even qualify for NCAAs. I just don't see that kind of performance getting past enough hungry fellas for him to AA at this weight. The Big12 guys are tough, and so is Real Woods. Everyone at NCAA has a good chance of beating Micic at this weight. 

C. Amine had a great tournament, but that weight is probably the least predictable this year. I wouldn't be surprised if he made it through the rd of 12, nor if he didn't. 

I'm also keen on savvy veterans Massa and M. Amine. I doubt Massa gets past Starocci or Mekhi, though, and it won't be surprising at all if he falls to Kem or Hidlay. 

M. Amine looked great at the end of that match vs Brooks, but there's also an undefeated Hidlay vying for the top spot in that bracket, so he might have to repeat that performance in the semis. If Amine/Brooks are in the same half, then this will be huge in the team score. 

Parris isn't looking like a high AA right now - not in that field. He definitely looked like the 4th best in his conference, which makes 3rd highly unlikely. I'm sure it'll come down to styles in that bracket. Kerkvliet has him figured out. Don't know about Cassioppi. Anyone not named Gable could get pinned by Stencel and Hendrickson. 

I don't see how Michigan gets more than two finalists. I'd be surprised if PSU didn't have more than two. It'll take some crazy over-performance for Iowa to get more than 2 as well, and I don't know which guys those would be. All that to say, I think this year it'll be decided in the consolation rounds, where it's possible that a team with a bunch of geezers, Michigan or Iowa, will pull it together and win for their team. If a couple PSU guys get upset, I can imagine a 2001 situation, where Iowa wins it with zero finalists. 

I think it'll be PSU - their track record of peaking at NCAAs is great. We'll also find out if Hildebrandt's 0-2 was a fluke. 

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2 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Who is your projected favorite?

My dad used to say figures never lie, but liars always figure. Now, I'm not saying I'm a liar, but mistakes were made. I realized that what I calculated was the expected score given the seed. Whereas, what you said is where they would finish, not where they would be seeded.

So, in the interest of academic honesty, given where you think they will finish, then the new projected totals are between 111 and 139 without bonus. I used the same words to numbers assumptions as above and took the average advancement points for positions 3-12.

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36 minutes ago, denger said:

I'll be pulling for Michigan only because they're an unlikely contender, if not an underdog. 

Nothing about Micic's performance says AA. His 4th at BIG10 was higher than expected, but not because he over-performed, rather because he navigated an unlikely consolation bracket after losing to a guy who might not even qualify for NCAAs. I just don't see that kind of performance getting past enough hungry fellas for him to AA at this weight. The Big12 guys are tough, and so is Real Woods. Everyone at NCAA has a good chance of beating Micic at this weight. 

C. Amine had a great tournament, but that weight is probably the least predictable this year. I wouldn't be surprised if he made it through the rd of 12, nor if he didn't. 

I'm also keen on savvy veterans Massa and M. Amine. I doubt Massa gets past Starocci or Mekhi, though, and it won't be surprising at all if he falls to Kem or Hidlay. 

M. Amine looked great at the end of that match vs Brooks, but there's also an undefeated Hidlay vying for the top spot in that bracket, so he might have to repeat that performance in the semis. If Amine/Brooks are in the same half, then this will be huge in the team score. 

Parris isn't looking like a high AA right now - not in that field. He definitely looked like the 4th best in his conference, which makes 3rd highly unlikely. I'm sure it'll come down to styles in that bracket. Kerkvliet has him figured out. Don't know about Cassioppi. Anyone not named Gable could get pinned by Stencel and Hendrickson. 

I don't see how Michigan gets more than two finalists. I'd be surprised if PSU didn't have more than two. It'll take some crazy over-performance for Iowa to get more than 2 as well, and I don't know which guys those would be. All that to say, I think this year it'll be decided in the consolation rounds, where it's possible that a team with a bunch of geezers, Michigan or Iowa, will pull it together and win for their team. If a couple PSU guys get upset, I can imagine a 2001 situation, where Iowa wins it with zero finalists. 

I think it'll be PSU - their track record of peaking at NCAAs is great. We'll also find out if Hildebrandt's 0-2 was a fluke. 

 

Where do you think Hildebrandt gets seeded? My gut tells me the fall will be pretty far. I think he wins 1 match, toss up in his 2nd match and if he loses he wins 2 or 3 on the back side. I don't think he is injured at all, and neither of his losses were bad per se. 

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Was kind of thinking about this last night, in terms of each teams point scoring at each weight Big Ten's --> NCAA. (i.e would their relative team points be higher or lower at NCAA's than Big 10's    Below are my thoughts:

                                               Michigan                                                            Penn State                                                                      Iowa

125                              maxed, can only go down                               believe pts will go way up                                              at best, about the same

133                             believe will go down a little                             maxed, very possible down a little                               maxed, very possibly down a little

141                             will go down a good bit                                   maxed, possible down a little                                      possible up a notch, I think down a little

149                               don't see any here                                                  don't see any here                                                     points will go down

157                                                  i see all three athletes here going down just a bit in points, Iowa with maybe the biggest drop off

165                               points will go down                                                    zzzzzzzzzzzzzz                                                      maxed, and I think he gets it this time

174                 believe 2nd is his ceiling, but predicting lower         maxed and I believe will repeat                                 should improve significantly from six place

184                         maxxed, I believe he will drop a place                believe he will improve a place                                    could replicate his placement, I'll say same

197                                                                 i see all three athletes finishing the NCAA right where they were in Big Ten

285                                        same                                                                            up one                                                                            down one

 

In the end, as much as I'm not too excited about the actual wrestling (semi's and finals of big ten all together was not a great viewing experience for the sport of wrestling), I am looking forward to the first true legit three team race we've had in a while.  I think Penn State has the most points they can improve upon, and they always seem to do that between B10 and NCAA, so I gotta go with them.  

 

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14 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

 

Where do you think Hildebrandt gets seeded? My gut tells me the fall will be pretty far. I think he wins 1 match, toss up in his 2nd match and if he loses he wins 2 or 3 on the back side. I don't think he is injured at all, and neither of his losses were bad per se. 

I have no idea where he'll get seeded, but it probably should be low. 

Both McKee and DeAugustino reestablished themselves with head to head wins over Hildebrandt. 

Cardinale looked good at Big12 over Teske and Mastrogiovanni

Vito looked great too, over Glory.

Noto is 30-1 as a MAC Champ

Comacho is 16-3 as ACC Champ

So....it'll have to be behind at least 4 in the Big10, two in EIWA, and at least behind the other 3 conference champs. 

10th at best, but could very well be lower. 

That said, I'd be surprised if he didn't score points at NCAA.

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6 minutes ago, Lurker said:

In the end, as much as I'm not too excited about the actual wrestling (semi's and finals of big ten all together was not a great viewing experience for the sport of wrestling), I am looking forward to the first true legit three team race we've had in a while.  I think Penn State has the most points they can improve upon, and they always seem to do that between B10 and NCAA, so I gotta go with them.  

 

 

Agree. I think some of the older wrestlers are in it for the win, but maybe not getting as much pure joy from the sport as they once did. Too much defensive wrestling and not enough focus on pure scoring. 

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2 minutes ago, denger said:

I have no idea where he'll get seeded, but it probably should be low. 

Both McKee and DeAugustino reestablished themselves with head to head wins over Hildebrandt. 

Cardinale looked good at Big12 over Teske and Mastrogiovanni

Vito looked great too, over Glory.

Noto is 30-1 as a MAC Champ

Comacho is 16-3 as ACC Champ

So....it'll have to be behind at least 4 in the Big10, two in EIWA, and at least behind the other 3 conference champs. 

10th at best, but could very well be lower. 

That said, I'd be surprised if he didn't score points at NCAA.

I have him 11th, so sounds about right. I too think he does better at NCAAs. Looked a little tired but that was about it and enough for two good wrestlers to beat him. I think he heads into NCAAs slightly better rested and better focused as well. 

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7 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

 

Agree. I think some of the older wrestlers are in it for the win, but maybe not getting as much pure joy from the sport as they once did. Too much defensive wrestling and not enough focus on pure scoring. 

Could be.  Which begs the question, if one of these older wrestlers gets upset in an early round, how much are they going to be driven to fight through and get third????  That mindset you speak of could have a major impact on the team race.

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1 hour ago, Lurker said:

Could be.  Which begs the question, if one of these older wrestlers gets upset in an early round, how much are they going to be driven to fight through and get third????  That mindset you speak of could have a major impact on the team race.

It might be like some of the football bowl games, where the seniors are all-in for a last hurrah. 

Such a weird equation right now, though, with all the veterans, some essentially coming out of retirement. 

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39 minutes ago, denger said:

It might be like some of the football bowl games, where the seniors are all-in for a last hurrah. 

Such a weird equation right now, though, with all the veterans, some essentially coming out of retirement. 

The new guys have been put on hold for two years. If they get four years themselves, then this will either cause group after group to be delayed OR recruits will start to spread out thinner to more schools. Weird times. I do think coaches will have to evaluate what happened here and ask if it will be worth it in the future. 

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The more I think about it, the worse it gets for Iowa. 
 

Their only locks to AA are 133, 149, 197 and 285. None are expected to make the finals. 
 

At 141, 165 and 174 could go anywhere from 0-20 points. That’s a huge disparity, but reflects the injuries and past performances of the guys at those weights. 
 

Iowa at 80 points wouldn’t be shocking. 

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On 3/7/2022 at 3:15 PM, Housebuye said:

The more I think about it, the worse it gets for Iowa. 
 

Their only locks to AA are 133, 149, 197 and 285. None are expected to make the finals. 
 

At 141, 165 and 174 could go anywhere from 0-20 points. That’s a huge disparity, but reflects the injuries and past performances of the guys at those weights. 
 

Iowa at 80 points wouldn’t be shocking. 

I think Eierman finishes 2 to 6, Marinelli 1 to 5, and Murin 4 to 12. I do think Murin AA this year. Kemerer seems the most injured and shaky of this group but has a high ceiling of 3-5

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On 3/7/2022 at 1:46 PM, Lurker said:

Was kind of thinking about this last night, in terms of each teams point scoring at each weight Big Ten's --> NCAA. (i.e would their relative team points be higher or lower at NCAA's than Big 10's    Below are my thoughts:

                                               Michigan                                                            Penn State                                                                      Iowa

125                              maxed, can only go down                               believe pts will go way up                                              at best, about the same

133                             believe will go down a little                             maxed, very possible down a little                               maxed, very possibly down a little

141                             will go down a good bit                                   maxed, possible down a little                                      possible up a notch, I think down a little

149                               don't see any here                                                  don't see any here                                                     points will go down

157                                                  i see all three athletes here going down just a bit in points, Iowa with maybe the biggest drop off

165                               points will go down                                                    zzzzzzzzzzzzzz                                                      maxed, and I think he gets it this time

174                 believe 2nd is his ceiling, but predicting lower         maxed and I believe will repeat                                 should improve significantly from six place

184                         maxxed, I believe he will drop a place                believe he will improve a place                                    could replicate his placement, I'll say same

197                                                                 i see all three athletes finishing the NCAA right where they were in Big Ten

285                                        same                                                                            up one                                                                            down one

 

In the end, as much as I'm not too excited about the actual wrestling (semi's and finals of big ten all together was not a great viewing experience for the sport of wrestling), I am looking forward to the first true legit three team race we've had in a while.  I think Penn State has the most points they can improve upon, and they always seem to do that between B10 and NCAA, so I gotta go with them.  

 

Of course I could nitpick at some of your individual assumptions, but I like this analysis a lot.  Kinda "bottom lines" it.

I do question what you have for PSU in the heavier weights.  There are some very good wrestlers coming from other conferences (ex. 2Hidlays, Mekhi Lewis).  Of course this also affects Michigan and Iowa (equally?), so I still like your bottom line.  Very cool.

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On 3/7/2022 at 8:36 AM, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Many will still say Penn State, but I can't help but think Michigan should be the favorite for NCAAs.  They did win Big 10s after all.

 

Here is why:

  • Suriano will be the 1 seed and favorite to win with lots of bonus.
  • Ragusin will AA.
  • Micic could AA again (though he looked bad at B10s)
  • Storr is unlikely to qualify
  • Lewan is likely to AA
  • Amine is likely to AA
  • I have Massa making the finals, possibly winning it all.
  • Amine will be the 1 seed and favorite to win with lots of bonus.
  • Brucki is likely to AA.
  • I have Parris as a definite AA, as high as 3rd.

I have Michigan with 2 champs in Suriano and Amine, 3 finalists, 9 AAs in total.  That should be enough to top anyone else for the team title.

Jimmy doing the Tbar downplaying PSU’s chances thing again.

PSU is still the heavy favorites. Nothing really changed based on B10’s except Amine showing he could beat Brooks.

Even based on your scenario, PSU probably still has at least 4 finalists and 2-4 champs (RBY, Lee, Starocci, Dean as possible champs + Brooks in final).

If Michigan gets 3 champs maybe they can do it, but it’s a longshot.

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