Will Iowa score over 100 team points?

[Housebuye 2,449]

Iowa is dealing with a ton of injuries which will likely impact their performance. Will they be able to break 100?

[Wrestleknownothing 1,638]

With all 10 wrestlers qualified they would need an average of just over 10 points per. I took a look at the last 10 years of results without bonus points (bonus points to anyone who can provide those):

 

No surprise that the two years where they had their best average seeds were the two years that they averaged more than 10 placement and advancement points per wrestler. Last year I think they scored 27 bonus points, so their final average was 12.9 points per wrestler. 

For me then the question is will they drop ~22%?

From injured Lee to injured Ayala is certainly a drop, but I think I will go with >100.

[Mr. Poopy butthole 313]

25 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

With all 10 wrestlers qualified they would need an average of just over 10 points per. I took a look at the last 10 years of results without bonus points (bonus points to anyone who can provide those):

 

No surprise that the two years where they had their best average seeds were the two years that they averaged more than 10 placement and advancement points per wrestler. Last year I think they scored 27 bonus points, so their final average was 12.9 points per wrestler. 

For me then the question is will they drop ~22%?

From injured Lee to injured Ayala is certainly a drop, but I think I will go with >100.

You'll also have to factor in injured Kem vs non injured Kem and knee brace sporting Eierman vs healthy Eierman from last year. If those 2 can repeat as finalists then I think Iowa has a good chance of eclipsing 100 points. Unfortunately, there is a lot of uncertainty swirling around the team right now so I'm even sure what to predict. Heck, apparently even Cass is dealing with health issues now.

[steamboat_charlie v2 1,174]

I think they'll probably end up with 7 AA's, and no less than 6, and be in the 105+/- area.  

[Jimmy Cinnabon 411]

Ayala 10 points

ADS 18 points

Eireman 20 points

Murin 12 points

Young 12 points

Marinelli 20 points

Kemerer 20 points

Assad 8 points

Warner 10 points

Cassioppi 16 points

 

 

[VakAttack 4,041]

Man, just next level stuff from the pastry.

[Wrestleknownothing 1,638]

29 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Ayala 10 points

ADS 18 points

Eireman 20 points

Murin 12 points

Young 12 points

Marinelli 20 points

Kemerer 20 points

Assad 8 points

Warner 10 points

Cassioppi 16 points

 

 

Hmm.

2022 Iowa 146 vs 2021 Iowa 127. 

I feel like your not even trying anymore.

[ionel 2,729]

31 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Ayala 10 points

ADS 18 points

Eireman 20 points

Murin 12 points

Young 12 points

Marinelli 20 points

Kemerer 20 points

Assad 8 points

Warner 10 points

Cassioppi 16 points

 

 

If 20, 20 & 16 pts then what were those MFFs about, don't tell us Tommie B was duck'n again. 

[Jimmy Cinnabon 411]

10 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Hmm.

2022 Iowa 146 vs 2021 Iowa 127. 

I feel like your not even trying anymore.

Which point totals seem unrealistic?

[Mizzoufan01 45]

Mineo says Eierman will wrestle with a torn ACL at NCAAS. I know it’s been done before, but I wonder if this will keep him from the finals. He relies on weird flexibility and scrambling. Idk how much scrambling can be done on a knee with no ACL.

[Jimmy Cinnabon 411]

1 minute ago, Mizzoufan01 said:

Mineo says Eierman will wrestle with a torn ACL at NCAAS. I know it’s been done before, but I wonder if this will keep him from the finals. He relies on weird flexibility and scrambling. Idk how much scrambling can be done on a knee with no ACL.

Spencer has won 3 NCAA titles and 2 Hodge trophies with no ACLs too.

[Crotalus 592]

4 minutes ago, Mizzoufan01 said:

Mineo says Eierman will wrestle with a torn ACL at NCAAS. I know it’s been done before, but I wonder if this will keep him from the finals. He relies on weird flexibility and scrambling. Idk how much scrambling can be done on a knee with no ACL.

He'll be even more flexible with no ligaments. I think it's his new strategy to finally reach the top of the podium. Didn't want to give Lee a feel for this new found flexibility last weekend.

[Mizzoufan01 45]

Just now, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Spencer has won 3 NCAA titles and 2 Hodge trophies with no ACLs too.

I alluded to that in the “it’s been done before” sentence in my post. However Lee and Eierman have different styles. Eierman relies on funk and scrambling. In those situations, I would guess his knee could be placed in an uncomfortable situation/position causing pain. Maybe he will be forced to switch up a little rather than how’s he wrestled in the past. Idk just making an observation.

[Idaho 1,397]

14 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Spencer has won 3 NCAA titles and 2 Hodge trophies with no ACLs too.

I would bet (wait, no I won't)  that more wrestlers have not won NCAA titles with a torn/no ACL than have won with a torn/no ACL. 

[ironmonkey 157]

Is staying healthy part of how we rate coaching performance?   All programs deal with injuries.  Not just about Iowa.  Yet some programs over time do much better than others.  

[Wrestleknownothing 1,638]

55 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Which point totals seem unrealistic?

The aggregate one. 

But really each of them. For example, if you are the 1 seed your expected points are ~16 without bonus and 17-19 with bonus. So your totals assume Iowa will have 10 wrestlers finish at or above seed.

That has probably never happened, and certainly never for a team that will inevitably be as high seeded as they will be. Then there is the issue of parity.

The B1G tourney showed Iowa, Michigan, and Penn State are in a dog fight. Without an unprecedented number of medical forfeits, and a larger field, that is not a formula for averaging above your seed, never mind everyone being above their seed, never mind everyone being above their very high seed, never mind everyone being above their very high seed while looking like the barely walking wounded.

But you already knew all this.

[Wrestleknownothing 1,638]

1 hour ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Spencer has won 3 NCAA titles and 2 Hodge trophies with no ACLs too.

And no scrambles.

[Wrestleknownothing 1,638]

1 hour ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Which point totals seem unrealistic?

BTW I would be willing to renew your "leave the board" bet on that point total. I get the under. You get the at and over.

[Jimmy Cinnabon 411]

3 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The aggregate one. 

But really each of them. For example, if you are the 1 seed your expected points are ~16 without bonus and 17-19 with bonus. So your totals assume Iowa will have 10 wrestlers finish at or above seed.

That has probably never happened, and certainly never for a team that will inevitably be as high seeded as they will be. Then there is the issue of parity.

The B1G tourney showed Iowa, Michigan, and Penn State are in a dog fight. Without an unprecedented number of medical forfeits, and a larger field, that is not a formula for averaging above your seed, never mind everyone being above their seed, never mind everyone being above their very high seed, never mind everyone being above their very high seed while looking like the barely walking wounded.

But you already knew all this.

ADS and Cass will be 3 seeds and have a good history of lots of early round bonus.  I think 18/16 points is right on the money for those two based on past performance.

Eierman gets the 2 seed and also gets lots of early round bonus.  I have him making the finals. 20 point doesn't seem crazy.

I have Marinelli winning it all, so while he's not a huge bonus guy the 20 points there is justified.

Kemerer, if not healthy, I can concede may be overly optimistic.  Maybe if he is dinged up I drop him from 20 points to 16 points.

[Wrestleknownothing 1,638]

17 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

ADS and Cass will be 3 seeds and have a good history of lots of early round bonus.  I think 18/16 points is right on the money for those two based on past performance.

Eierman gets the 2 seed and also gets lots of early round bonus.  I have him making the finals. 20 point doesn't seem crazy.

I have Marinelli winning it all, so while he's not a huge bonus guy the 20 points there is justified.

Kemerer, if not healthy, I can concede may be overly optimistic.  Maybe if he is dinged up I drop him from 20 points to 16 points.

You have me convinced. But I am a charitable guy, so even though I absolutely believe you, I will allow you to bet me. You get 146 and up. I get under 146.

[BerniePragle 427]

1 hour ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Which point totals seem unrealistic?

 

27 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The aggregate one. 

But really each of them. For example, if you are the 1 seed your expected points are ~16 without bonus and 17-19 with bonus. So your totals assume Iowa will have 10 wrestlers finish at or above seed.

That has probably never happened, and certainly never for a team that will inevitably be as high seeded as they will be. Then there is the issue of parity.

The B1G tourney showed Iowa, Michigan, and Penn State are in a dog fight. Without an unprecedented number of medical forfeits, and a larger field, that is not a formula for averaging above your seed, never mind everyone being above their seed, never mind everyone being above their very high seed, never mind everyone being above their very high seed while looking like the barely walking wounded.

But you already knew all this.

Exactly, WKN.  While each of the individual point totals The Pastry came up with may be "possible", the chances of (nearly) all of them happening I estimate at slightly < snowball in heck.  I'm with you on the under.  You're here to stay, but that Pastry is mighty slippery

[TBar1977 4,599]

2 hours ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Ayala 10 points

ADS 18 points

Eireman 20 points

Murin 12 points

Young 12 points

Marinelli 20 points

Kemerer 20 points

Assad 8 points

Warner 10 points

Cassioppi 16 points

Some bad medicine? 

[IGotAPlan 58]

 I think how their guys recover from injuries will definitely be a factor. Eierman should be the 2 seed and have a pretty easy path to the semis (injured or not) Cassioppi has a prime path to make it to the finals but he was very hobbled apparently. Kemerer probably will have a tough quarters because of his MFF at Big Tens but he can still beat anyone due to his defense and IQ (it's just pain tolerance for him at this point) 

Really this is the year for Marinelli to step up and win it for Iowa to have a shot to win it all. He's the healthy one of the bunch now. 

[CTMopar 17]

2 hours ago, VakAttack said:

Man, just next level stuff from the pastry.

"Stickey Bun" Bio!!!

Moriah Marinelli was named Director of Wrestling Operations in June 2019.

Marinelli graduated from the University of Iowa in 2019 with a degree in Heath and Human Physiology. She was a manager for the Hawkeye wrestling team from 2015-19 and has four years of administrative experience working with the Hawkeye Wrestling Club.

She lives in Coralville with her husband, Alex

P.S. The PSU "Train"!!!

[BerniePragle 427]

25 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Some bad medicine? 

Some bad tequila?