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flyingcement

NCAA Qualifiers - by state and by high school

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31 minutes ago, JasonBryant said:

I'm older, so I'm JB when he's not wrestling. We came to that agreement. There's Burroughs, Burkert and me who have this understanding. 

You could do your own version of that Toyota “Jones” ad from the Super Bowl. 

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11 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Mike Poeta has to see that and feel hope for the future of the Illini. Now just gotta keep em home.

Shame on me for not pointing out that Mike Storniolo not only feels good about the future, but the present, too (what with 10 qualifiers this year).

Three Illinois starters.

Caveat: One of them is Jack Jessen. He of the 1 win all season prior to the 9th place matches at B1G. And of course, those matches didn't even count for the team score.

Has a wrestler ever made the NCAA tourney with zero regular season wins? 

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18 hours ago, flyingcement said:

Even though Pennsylvania had the most individual qualifiers, they aren't able to fill out a full team due to a lack of 125 lber.  There are three states that can field full teams.  I tossed Pennsylvania's 9 in the table below with their opening bout forfeit

Illinois New Jersey Ohio Pennsylvania
Noah Surtin Nick Suriano Dylan Shawver (Forfeit)
Michael McGee Chris Cannon Lucas Byrd Austin DeSanto
Real Woods Sebastian Rivera Allan Hart Cole Matthews
Austin Gomez Mike Van Brill Tariq Wilson Sammy Sasso
Austin O'Connor Michael Petite David Carr Ed Scott
Dean Hamiti Shane Griffith Alex Marinelli Jake Wentzel
Adam Kemp Mekhi Lewis Benjamin Pasiuk Carter Starocci
Abe Assad John Poznanski Kaleb Romero Trent Hidlay
Eric Schultz Jacob Cardenas Ben Smith Nino Bonaccorsi
Tony Cassioppi Lewis Fernades Matt Stencel Jordan Wood

 

Ryan Miller wrestled for Blair but I think is from Stroudsburg, PA

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3 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Shame on me for not pointing out that Mike Storniolo not only feels good about the future, but the present, too (what with 10 qualifiers this year).

Three Illinois starters.

Caveat: One of them is Jack Jessen. He of the 1 win all season prior to the 9th place matches at B1G. And of course, those matches didn't even count for the team score.

Has a wrestler ever made the NCAA tourney with zero regular season wins? 

Does Joe Smith count when he dropped from 174 to 165 for Big 12's?

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2 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Does Joe Smith count when he dropped from 174 to 165 for Big 12's?

Not for the purist, but sure, why not?

I forgot to mention that Jessen's sole victory during the regular season was against a back up junior who wrestled exactly zero matches each of the last two prior seasons.. It just keeps getting better.

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19 hours ago, NJDan said:

Pretty amazing showing by Bergen Catholic. Everyone knows about Blair. It's a boarding school and can recruit nationally. I would think it would be MORE dominant.

But BC is really more a football school and has no boarders. 

And what happened to St. Paris Graham?

Bergen Catholic assembling a team of middle school all stars from all over north and central Jersey...impressive, yes...amazing, not so much

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15 minutes ago, vsnej said:

Bergen Catholic assembling a team of middle school all stars from all over north and central Jersey...impressive, yes...amazing, not so much

The real question is. Are they honest about that? Or do they do the Graham and pretend it’s all homegrown 

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20 hours ago, flyingcement said:

Based on the location of the high school each qualifier graduated from (if applicable):

 

Pennsylvania 42
New Jersey 33
Illinois 33
Ohio 22
Michigan 17
California 17
New York 16
Minnesota 14
Iowa 13
Indiana 11
Colorado 11
Oklahoma 9
Florida 9
Virginia 8
Missouri 8
Wisconsin 7
Kansas 7
Georgia 7
North Carolina 5
Maryland 4
West Virginia 3
Washington 3
Arizona 3
North Dakota 3
Montana 3
Massachusetts 3
Tennessee 2
Utah 2
Nebraska 2
Connecticut 2
Alaska 2
Wyoming 1
South Carolina 1
Oregon 1
New Hampshire 1
N/A (Cuba) 1
Kentucky 1
Idaho 1
Hawaii 1
Alabama 1

 

High schools with more than one qualifier:

Blair Academy 7
Bergen Catholic 6
St. Edward 3
Nazareth 3
Montini Catholic 3
Detroit Central Catholic 3
Wyoming Seminary 2
Willmar 2
West Fargo 2
Tuttle 2
Staley 2
St. John Bosco 2
St. John 2
Southeast Polk 2
South Park 2
Pueblo County 2
Parkersburg South 2
Olentangy LIberty 2
Oak Park-River Forest 2
Mount Carmel 2
Mifflin County 2
Lake Highland 2
Hilton 2
Heritage Hall 2
Glenbard North 2
Fort Dodge 2
Father Tolton 2
Elyria 2
Danbury 2
Christian Brothers 2
Chesterton 2
Cherry Creek 2
Castle View 2
Calvary Chapel 2
Boyertown 2
Archer 2
Anoka 2

NJ is good, but many of its wrestlers are from out of state.  The data overstates NJ in that way.

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1 minute ago, Elevator said:

NJ is good, but many of its wrestlers are from out of state.  The data overstates NJ in that way.

It's meant to represent the high schools they graduated from.  In that sense, I think it fairly characterizes the New Jersey High School wrestling scene.  It's a different type of analysis than one based on hometowns with different types of conclusions you can draw

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13 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

It's meant to represent the high schools they graduated from.  In that sense, I think it fairly characterizes the New Jersey High School wrestling scene.  It's a different type of analysis than one based on hometowns with different types of conclusions you can draw

Blair alone skews it, and they are not really part of the "NJ HS wresting scene."   Love the work you put in here but hometown should be based on the town listed on the roster - that's what the person is defining their hometown as.

Edited by 1032004

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Just now, 1032004 said:

Blair alone skews it, and they are not really part of the "NJ HS wresting scene."   Love the work you put in here but hometown should be based on the town listed on the roster - that's what the person is defining their hometown as.

Blair is on the prep scene which is a different dimension I haven't yet added here.  But they certainly are a school in New Jersey.  I think if you were reading this as a hometown breakdown, that is the problem.  It's not a hometown breakdown and was never intended to be.  It's about their high schools.

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3 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

Blair is on the prep scene which is a different dimension I haven't yet added here.  But they certainly are a school in New Jersey.  I think if you were reading this as a hometown breakdown, that is the problem.  It's not a hometown breakdown and was never intended to be.  It's about their high schools.

Blair isn't really on the prep scene in NJ either TBH.  Bergen Catholic competes in NJ states.  Blair does not.

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Just now, 1032004 said:

Blair isn't really on the prep scene in NJ either TBH.  Bergen Catholic competes in NJ states.  Blair does not.

Haha I see you didn't address the other point which is fine.  I trust you understand what this is doing now (not showing hometowns).  Yes that's right, but it's about the location of their high schools.  There are those prep schools like Malvern and Wyoming Seminary that compete with Blair in Pennsylvania and in other states as well.  

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1 minute ago, flyingcement said:

Haha I see you didn't address the other point which is fine.  I trust you understand what this is doing now (not showing hometowns).  Yes that's right, but it's about the location of their high schools.  There are those prep schools like Malvern and Wyoming Seminary that compete with Blair in Pennsylvania and in other states as well.  

Malvern is not a residential prep school. Possible that they could get kids commuting from Del, NJ, or maybe MD, but I think a high % are PA kids.  Not an easy commute from nearby states.

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After ramping up their recruiting efforts with sing-on bonuses, travel stipends, family job placement, etc., Delbarton has supplanted Bergen Catholic as the top wrestling team in the NJSIAA. *

* Tongue (somewhat) firmly in cheek...

Screenshot 2022-03-09 15.35.06.png

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The New Jersey high school scene is a composite of public, private, prep, schools like other states.  That is a noteworthy analysis as you mention.  But that's not with this is doing.

Hometown is a cool analysis because it is fun, but I don't know how much it tells us.

The reason why I like the high school aspect is because it provides an easy data point to then pull in high school success rates (whether they won states or their respective leagues titles) and looking at how high school success correlates to college success (and whether we should expect higher correlation from some places)

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2 minutes ago, Elevator said:

Malvern is not a residential prep school. Possible that they could get kids commuting from Del, NJ, or maybe MD, but I think a high % are PA kids.  Not an easy commute from nearby states.

Yes that is true.  But not particularly relevant to this thread.  (as noted above)

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35 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

The New Jersey high school scene is a composite of public, private, prep, schools like other states.  That is a noteworthy analysis as you mention.  But that's not with this is doing.

Hometown is a cool analysis because it is fun, but I don't know how much it tells us.

The reason why I like the high school aspect is because it provides an easy data point to then pull in high school success rates (whether they won states or their respective leagues titles) and looking at how high school success correlates to college success (and whether we should expect higher correlation from some places)

 

Hometown tells you what state the guys are actually from.  I don't know how much counting Blair as NJ tells us, since a lot of their guys are not actually from NJ.

It's really only Blair and Wyoming Seminary that I can think of that fall into this category, where they are boarding schools that do not compete in their respective state's tournament.

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1 hour ago, jp157 said:

The real question is. Are they honest about that? Or do they do the Graham and pretend it’s all homegrown 

I believe Ohio has open enrollment, so nothing to pretend.

And just to be sure people understand, St Paris is the name of the town.

Edited by gimpeltf

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