Jump to content
Jimmy Cinnabon

Penn State got just about the worst possible draw

Recommended Posts

125: Hildebrant gets Suriano round 2

133: RBY has ADS in his bracket

141: Lee's bracket is fine

149: Bartlett has Sasso round 2

157: Berge at 16 has Carr round 2.  Young (who Berge beat twice) is seeded 9th

165: N/A

174: Starrocci has Labriola as a quarter

184: Brooks has Venz in quarters, semi with Hidlay

197: Dean has a quarter with Caffey, the only wrestler to beat him this year

HWT: Kerk as the 4 seed has Steveson in the finals

 

The upside is Michigan and Iowa's chances for a team title just went UP, UP, UP!

Hildebrant, Bartlett and Berge will all be heading to the consi bracket early and possibly 0-2 BBQs.

Edited by Jimmy Cinnabon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

125: Hildebrant gets Suriano round 2

133: RBY has ADS in his bracket

141: Lee's bracket is fine

149: Bartlett has Sasso round 2

157: Berge at 16 has Carr round 2.  Young (who Berge beat twice) is seeded 9th

165: N/A

174: Starrocci has Labriola as a quarter

184: Brooks has Venz in quarters, semi with Hidlay

197: Dean has a quarter with Caffey, the only wrestler to beat him this year

HWT: Kerk as the 4 seed has Steveson in the finals

 

The upside is Michigan and Iowa's chances for a team title just went UP, UP, UP!

Hildebrant, Bartlett and Berge will all be heading to the consi bracket early and possibly 0-2 BBQs.

HWT... Interesting, 1 and 4 are typically on the same half of a bracket. Hard to meet in the finals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Wrestle81 said:

News Flash!!! There is no easy path to the NCAA Finals...I don't care what anyone says...and I've been to 45 NCAA D1 tourneys

Yes, here come the annual "seeds don't matter because you have to beat everyone to win a championship".

Total ignores the fact that bonus points are a thing for the team race.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, 1032004 said:

Ah the classic post where Jimmy makes a mostly good point but throws in a troll line like RBY being worried about DeSanto

I mean RBY has been on a hot streak vs ADS recently but let's not pretend like he's not the biggest threat to beat him other than Fix.

Edited by Jimmy Cinnabon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

I mean RBY has been on a hot streak vs ADS recently but let's not pretend like he's not the biggest threat to beat him other than Fix.

Maybe true, but he still doesn’t seem to be much of a threat at this point.

But some other reasons I do agree with your OP:

Hildebrandt has a guy that’s 32-1 in round 1.

Bartlett has Realbuto in round 1 who just beat Degen and Edmond.

Dean could have Norfleet in round 2

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seeds and bracketing do make a difference in the team race, and you have to admit the brackets did not work out well for Penn State. Even some of the guys that earned #1 seeds have a tough draw. Starrocci hitting Labriola in the quarters is pretty crappy and so is Dean hitting the guy he lost to. Hopefully, it’s enough to allow Michigan to win it but I doubt it :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Maybe true, but he still doesn’t seem to be much of a threat at this point.

But some other reasons I do agree with your OP:

Hildebrandt has a guy that’s 32-1 in round 1.

Bartlett has Realbuto in round 1 who just beat Degen and Edmond.

Dean could have Norfleet in round 2

 

 

Dean will beat Norfleet with ease. It’s a terrible style matchup for Norfleet. I say that as an ASU fan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to admit, my view of PSU's odds of winning dropped by about 20 percentage points after seeing their draws, then another 10 points after seeing Iowa's and Michigan's.  It really is pretty close to a worst case scenario for PSU.

At 125, Hildebrandt couldn't expect a good draw after B1Gs, but hard to be worse than a 29-1 landmine in round 1 and Surinao in round 2.  Hildebrandt is capable of beating just about anyone outside the top 3 and it looks like his run will have to be on the backside.  

At 133, RBY *is* the bad draw, and you knew he'd be opposite Fix either way.  But no doubt his odds are better with ADS on the other side of the bracket and that's not how it fell.

At 141, it was a given that Lee would be the 1 seed, but the issue is you need him putting up bonus in early rounds for PSU to have a chance.  Getting the winner of defensive wrestlers Kinner/D'Emilio in round 2, then Hart/Micic, neither of whom have come close to giving up bonus all year.  At least Rivera/Eierman are on the other side.

At 149, this is actually the only PSU draw I like.  Yes, Bartlett gets Sasso in round 2, but he wasn't going to get a good seed anyway, and I'd rather Sasso than Yianni/Wilson/Gomez.  At least Sasso's been in reaching distance in Bartlett's losses to them, and if he somehow wins he gets Parco.  Of the universe of potential draws for Bartlett, this is among the better of them.

At 157, its hard to imagine a worse draw than Brady getting the 16 seed and Carr in round 2.  There's a lot of places in the bracket where Berge could've made a run to the semis, and he somehow got one where he can't even make a run to the quarters.  Backside city.

165... womp womp.

At 174, look, the weight is deep, so the later rounds are going to be tough.  But as #1 seed you'd expect a slightly less awful draw than others.  Instead Carter gets the #3 placer last year (Labs), then either of two prior runners-up (Kemmerer/Hidlay), then prior national champ Lewis (unless Massa can take him out).  At the very least you'd expect his quarter to be easier, i.e. more like O'Malley/Plott.  What a gauntlet.

At 184, its pretty much as expected. You had to figure he'd get Amine or Hidlay in the semis, and the other in the finals.  IMO he got the toughest quarter in Romero/Venz, but again, this is a weight where Brooks is the bad draw.

At 197, there wasn't going to be an easy match from the quarters on.  But drawing the only guy that beat you is a tough break (Caffey) and Norfleet's tougher-than-usual round 2 opponent.

At HWT, no real surprise that he's opposite Gable in the semis, as Cass/Schultz were going to be above him, but I'm sure he'd have preferred a 6 seed below Wood/Hendrickson, which would have been plausible.  

Bottom line is the guys who they were likely counting on significant points, like Berge and Hildebrandt, will have to do it a half point at a time on the backside, and their top seeds will face stiff tests earlier than they might've hoped.  Its still doable but again, if I'm an oddsmaker, I'm dropping PSU's odds down by a lot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For Penn State 157 is really the only "bad draw". Even with limited matches one would think that finishing 3rd at B1G's would have got you something better than 16. If he would have won B1G's would have have received a 13?

125 you get what you get. Can't finish 10th in the Conference Tourney and complain about anything. I could see him being above 16 but not much maybe one or two spots.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, JeanGuy said:

For Penn State 157 is really the only "bad draw". Even with limited matches one would think that finishing 3rd at B1G's would have got you something better than 16. If he would have won B1G's would have have received a 13?

125 you get what you get. Can't finish 10th in the Conference Tourney and complain about anything. I could see him being above 16 but not much maybe one or two spots.

Lets distinguish between a bad seed and a bad draw.  Your seed is your seed, but your draw is the placement of other wrestlers relative to you and your resulting path forward.  I agree with you that PSU's seeds were fair, with the exception of Berge and, to a modest extent, Hildebrandt.  Some seeds could have even been a touch worse (e.g. Kerk could be 5/6, Dean could be 2).  But the draws are across-the-board terrible.  And its a special kind of sucky from a team perspective when you have the body of work to make a run to the semis and you pull a 16 seed, blocking even a point-rich path to the quarters.  Objectively speaking, if I'm a bookie, I'm significantly downgrading PSU's odds after that draw.  I'll bet most bookies agree.

Edited by BAC

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...