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Wrestleknownothing

What will it take for Iowa to win?

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According to one poster on this board with a reputation for extreme accuracy and sober predictions, Iowa will score 146 points this year. The tea leaves suggest that if each team wrestles to their seed, PSU will score 112, to Michigan’s 94, and Iowa’s 78. And while it is theoretically possible for Iowa to add another 88 bonus points to their total, only that sober predictor would see it happening.

Instead, a more logical path would be to outperform their seeds while also getting some help from PSU and Michigan along the way. What might that look like? The biggest scoring leverage comes from the two seed. Moving from 3 to two gains 2 gains 2 points but moving from 2 to 1 gains 4 points.

The next highest leverage is from non-placing to AA. There is a 3, to 16, point jump in predicted scores if a wrestler seed 9 or lower makes it to the podium.

image.png.f68b0bd767cbb70d1a8d0c1cab8a4beb.png

Iowa has three wrestlers seeded outside of the AA spots, Ayala at 13, Young at 9, and Assad at 18. A wrestler with the 9 seed has made it to the podium 34% of the time in the last ten years with an expected placement value of 6 points. My assumptions get a little shaky at this point because seeds only recently went beyond 12. Without getting into the math, I am saying there is a 17% chance for a 13 seed and an 7% chance for an 18 seed to AA. None of those are impossible even if all three combined are improbable (~0.4% chance) but let’s say it happens. Skipping over some stuff, now we are at 18 incremental points, or 96 total and 2 better than Michigan.

image.png.4cca8c149f4bfe047305b2c1e4406658.png

 

But there is still PSU out there at 112. Now all it takes is for the Iowa wrestlers seeded in the AA positions to improve by a lot (~2 places per) or for PSU to crap the bed just a little.

image.png.475d05a59685735b317bf73c1e8a7ab1.png

 

If PSU helps them out by placing one spot lower per wrestler, along with Iowa figuring out how to get 10 AA’s we could be looking at a Hawkeye repeat.

So, you’re saying there’s a chance.

P.S. With a mere 51 bonus points on top of their placement and advancement points Iowa will get that 146. So, is the bet on?

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37 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

So, you’re saying there’s a chance.

P.S. With a mere 51 bonus points on top of their placement and advancement points Iowa will get that 146. So, is the bet on?

I'll bet 5 CinnaCoins that if you win the bet you will never be paid.   Although I suspect that even though you knownothing you do know this.  ;)

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The guy that declared Michigan the NCAA favorites the minute Big Ten's were over, and Michigan/Iowa the favorites immediately after bracket release, should NOT be betting.

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1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I only accept Schrute Bucks.

This is a bold strategy as they are only worth 1/100th of a cent.  This could completely backfire on you.  You'll have to let me know if it pays off.

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I think PSU fininshing below seed and not having as many bonus points as any other team is a stretch.  Does anyone have a listing of teams and bonus points over the years?  I'll bet since Cael came to town, PSU has been dominant in this area.  Iowa AA all 10 wrestlers is another stretch.  I believe only MN has done that.  Quite the feat if they make it. 

If B1G is any clue, it will be between PSU and Mich.   Mich winning B1G's this year is really surprising to me. 

mspart

Edited by mspart

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57 minutes ago, mspart said:

I think PSU fininshing below seed and not having as many bonus points as any other team is a stretch.  Does anyone have a listing of teams and bonus points over the years?  I'll bet since Cael came to town, PSU has been dominant in this area.  Iowa AA all 10 wrestlers is another stretch.  I believe only MN has done that.  Quite the feat if they make it. 

If B1G is any clue, it will be between PSU and Mich.   Mich winning B1G's this year is really surprising to me. 

mspart

Iowa had more bonus than PSU in two of the last three contested NCAA tournaments.  Penn State's current wrestlers aren't bonus monsters like the stars before them.

Edited by VakAttack

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6 minutes ago, GBR! said:

If Iowa was healthy they would be right in it, IMO.  But that doesn't appear to be the case.

This is the most salient point from Iowa's perspective.  Exactly how injured are Kemerer, Eierman, Cassioppi, and to a lesser extent (in terms of NCAA team title relevance) Ayala?  I think Cass is probably fine, and Kem probably freaked out when his shoulder went out.  Eierman, though, if he really does have a torn ACL, is tough to believe he'll be truly a threat for big points.  Hope I'm wrong.

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1 hour ago, VakAttack said:

Iowa had more bonus than PSU in two of the last three contested NCAA tournaments.  Penn State's current wrestlers aren't bonus monsters like the stars before them.

Iowa doesn’t have Spencer Lee, and Kem and Eierman are injured. Big Cass probably gets a pin or two, but I’m not sure where else the Iowa bonus came come from. 

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I don’t think Ayala or Assad AA’ing will make all that much difference.

I think either Iowa or Michigan need 3 champs to win, in particular because 2 of the 3 would likely be over a PSU guy who could also win

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1 minute ago, 1032004 said:

I don’t think Ayala or Assad AA’ing will make all that much difference.

I think either Iowa or Michigan need 3 champs to win, in particular because 2 of the 3 would likely be over a PSU guy who could also win

You don't need to think. I've done it for you.

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23 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

You don't need to think. I've done it for you.

Sure, if PSU has 0 champs Iowa can win too.  But that seems pretty unlikely.

Although am I reading your table right that you only have Eierman scoring 0.75 points?

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2 hours ago, VakAttack said:

Iowa had more bonus than PSU in two of the last three contested NCAA tournaments.  Penn State's current wrestlers aren't bonus monsters like the stars before them.

PSU flipped those results at this years Big10.

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3 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Typo. Unfortunately can't fix until Sunday. Good catch.

I think it does still add up to 94.5 though?

What place do you have Eierman?  If not 1st, then you have no champs between PSU and Iowa.  Which probably means Michigan has ~3 and could win.

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4 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I think it does still add up to 94.5 though?

What place do you have Eierman?  If not 1st, then you have no champs between PSU and Iowa.  Which probably means Michigan has ~3 and could win.

I won't have access to any of the data for a few days, but I will respond when I do.

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16 hours ago, VakAttack said:

Iowa had more bonus than PSU in two of the last three contested NCAA tournaments.  Penn State's current wrestlers aren't bonus monsters like the stars before them.

This makes sense? The last three contested NCAA Tournaments are 2018, 2019 and 2021. 2018 and 2019 have little to nothing to do with the make up of this current team except that guys like Nick Lee and RBY were kids on one of those teams. But I'm not sure if you think the bonus output of the PSU 2018 was low or high. Low because Iowa had more, or high relative to this current team because this current team isn't like the bonus monsters of the past. 

By bonus monsters that came before this current team, I presume you mean guys like Retherford, Nolf, Nickal, Joseph, Hall...etc. They were all on that 2018 team that beat Iowa by 44.5 pts. They scored 23.5 bonus pts. and Iowa had 30. PSU's 23.5 is still a good number of bonus. 

Nolf, Jospeh, Hall, Nickal and Cassar were on the 2019 team that beat Iowa by more than 60 points, and that team scored 28 bonus pts. This is the 1 year of the last 3 where PSU scored more bonus. 

Iowa had more in 2021. Gotcha. 

PSU had more at Big10s last wknd. and the amount they had was fairly close to the amounts they had in 2018 and 2019. Not exactly equal, but fairly close. You make it out like they are miles away from where they once were, which is inaccurate. 

 

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11 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

This makes sense? The last three contested NCAA Tournaments are 2018, 2019 and 2021. 2018 and 2019 have little to nothing to do with the make up of this current team except that guys like Nick Lee and RBY were kids on one of those teams. But I'm not sure if you think the bonus output of the PSU 2018 was low or high. Low because Iowa had more, or high relative to this current team because this current team isn't like the bonus monsters of the past. 

By bonus monsters that came before this current team, I presume you mean guys like Retherford, Nolf, Nickal, Joseph, Hall...etc. They were all on that 2018 team that beat Iowa by 44.5 pts. They scored 23.5 bonus pts. and Iowa had 30. PSU's 23.5 is still a good number of bonus. 

Nolf, Jospeh, Hall, Nickal and Cassar were on the 2019 team that beat Iowa by more than 60 points, and that team scored 28 bonus pts. This is the 1 year of the last 3 where PSU scored more bonus. 

Iowa had more in 2021. Gotcha. 

PSU had more at Big10s last wknd. and the amount they had was fairly close to the amounts they had in 2018 and 2019. Not exactly equal, but fairly close. You make it out like they are miles away from where they once were, which is inaccurate. 

 

Especially considering injuries, Iowa doesn't look to put up much bonus this year. 

Edited by ionel

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5 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

This makes sense? The last three contested NCAA Tournaments are 2018, 2019 and 2021. 2018 and 2019 have little to nothing to do with the make up of this current team except that guys like Nick Lee and RBY were kids on one of those teams. But I'm not sure if you think the bonus output of the PSU 2018 was low or high. Low because Iowa had more, or high relative to this current team because this current team isn't like the bonus monsters of the past. 

By bonus monsters that came before this current team, I presume you mean guys like Retherford, Nolf, Nickal, Joseph, Hall...etc. They were all on that 2018 team that beat Iowa by 44.5 pts. They scored 23.5 bonus pts. and Iowa had 30. PSU's 23.5 is still a good number of bonus. 

Nolf, Jospeh, Hall, Nickal and Cassar were on the 2019 team that beat Iowa by more than 60 points, and that team scored 28 bonus pts. This is the 1 year of the last 3 where PSU scored more bonus. 

Iowa had more in 2021. Gotcha. 

PSU had more at Big10s last wknd. and the amount they had was fairly close to the amounts they had in 2018 and 2019. Not exactly equal, but fairly close. You make it out like they are miles away from where they once were, which is inaccurate. 

 

I didn't "make it out to seem like they are miles behind".  I purposely used very anodyne language.  I was responding to a poster who said that it seemed unlikely that Penn State would be outscored in the bonus category.  My point is now, and has always been, that Penn State are not currently the bonus monsters they used to be.  I do not see Iowa (or anybody) as being "miles away" from PSU in the bonus category.  It's more of an even playing field now from a bonus perspective, nothing more, nothing less was meant.

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6 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

This makes sense? The last three contested NCAA Tournaments are 2018, 2019 and 2021. 2018 and 2019 have little to nothing to do with the make up of this current team except that guys like Nick Lee and RBY were kids on one of those teams. But I'm not sure if you think the bonus output of the PSU 2018 was low or high. Low because Iowa had more, or high relative to this current team because this current team isn't like the bonus monsters of the past. 

By bonus monsters that came before this current team, I presume you mean guys like Retherford, Nolf, Nickal, Joseph, Hall...etc. They were all on that 2018 team that beat Iowa by 44.5 pts. They scored 23.5 bonus pts. and Iowa had 30. PSU's 23.5 is still a good number of bonus. 

Nolf, Jospeh, Hall, Nickal and Cassar were on the 2019 team that beat Iowa by more than 60 points, and that team scored 28 bonus pts. This is the 1 year of the last 3 where PSU scored more bonus. 

Iowa had more in 2021. Gotcha. 

PSU had more at Big10s last wknd. and the amount they had was fairly close to the amounts they had in 2018 and 2019. Not exactly equal, but fairly close. You make it out like they are miles away from where they once were, which is inaccurate. 

 

32 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

I didn't "make it out to seem like they are miles behind".  I purposely used very anodyne language.  I was responding to a poster who said that it seemed unlikely that Penn State would be outscored in the bonus category.  My point is now, and has always been, that Penn State are not currently the bonus monsters they used to be.  I do not see Iowa (or anybody) as being "miles away" from PSU in the bonus category.  It's more of an even playing field now from a bonus perspective, nothing more, nothing less was meant.

 

My miles away comment is in reference to PSU today vs PSU of yesteryear, not a comparison of Iowa and PSU. And if you think Iowa is on a more even playing field with PSU right now then these brackets should be your friend. We'll see how it works out. 

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