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Jimmy Cinnabon

Which team has the most All-Americans at NCAAs?

What school has the most NCAA All-Americans this year?  

36 members have voted

  1. 1. What school has the most NCAA All-Americans this year?

    • Iowa
    • NC State
    • Northwestern
    • Michigan
    • Penn State
    • Oklahoma
      0
    • Cornell
      0
    • Mizzou
    • Iowa State
      0
    • Penn
    • Wisconsin
    • Minnesota
      0


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Iowa, NC State and Northwestern all have 10 NCAA qualifiers and theoretically could have 10 AAs.

The following schools qualified 9 wrestlers: Cornell, Iowa State, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Oklahoma, Penn, Penn State, and Wisconsin.

Edited by Jimmy Cinnabon

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Taking a probabilistic approach, I am going with Michigan to outpace PSU by one tenth of a wrestler.

Starting with the probability that a given seed AA's:

image.thumb.png.56eb7bc721e0da3eb29ef2c595452995.png

Then applying those probabilities to each of the seeds of each of the teams listed.

image.png.8bfcee2dc4b5ca3125e9f76c7a601ff3.png

I added OkSt to the list. Even though they only have 8 wrestlers, they finish at 2.65 expected AA's because of their three with a high likelihood. Hilariously, OU with 9 wrestlers entered are only 50/50 to get a single AA from the group.

But, in the end it is Michigan. I have made no adjustment for the legend of PSU outperformance at NCAA's (it is a real thing). If I adjust for team specific performance relative to seed, then it would be PSU by a nose with Michigan likely to slip at 4 weights and PSU likely to improve at a few.

By the way, I found it interesting that there is virtually no difference in the probability of AAing for the 6, 7, and 8 seeds. Same for 9 and 10.

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42 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Taking a probabilistic approach, I am going with Michigan to outpace PSU by one tenth of a wrestler.

Starting with the probability that a given seed AA's:

image.thumb.png.56eb7bc721e0da3eb29ef2c595452995.png

Then applying those probabilities to each of the seeds of each of the teams listed.

image.png.8bfcee2dc4b5ca3125e9f76c7a601ff3.png

I added OkSt to the list. Even though they only have 8 wrestlers, they finish at 2.65 expected AA's because of their three with a high likelihood. Hilariously, OU with 9 wrestlers entered are only 50/50 to get a single AA from the group.

But, in the end it is Michigan. I have made no adjustment for the legend of PSU outperformance at NCAA's (it is a real thing). If I adjust for team specific performance relative to seed, then it would be PSU by a nose with Michigan likely to slip at 4 weights and PSU likely to improve at a few.

By the way, I found it interesting that there is virtually no difference in the probability of AAing for the 6, 7, and 8 seeds. Same for 9 and 10.

Your "one tenth of a wrestler" reminds me of this exchange between Andy and Opie:

Sheriff Andy Taylor : Why, I was readin' here just the other day where there's somewhere like four hundred needy boys in this county alone, or... or-or one and a half boys per square mile.
Opie Taylor : There is?
Sheriff Andy Taylor : There sho' is.
Opie Taylor : I never seen one, Pa.
Sheriff Andy Taylor : Never seen one, what?
Opie Taylor : A half a boy.
Sheriff Andy Taylor : Well, it's not really a half a boy. It's a ratio.
Opie Taylor : Horatio who?
Sheriff Andy Taylor : Not Horatio. A ratio. It's mathematics - arithmetic. Look, now, Opie, just... forget... forget that part of it. F-f-forget the part about the half a boy.
Opie Taylor : It's pretty hard to forget a thing like that, Pa.
Sheriff Andy Taylor : Well, try.
Opie Taylor : Poor Horatio.

The big drop from (6,7,8) to (9,10) is also fascinating.  It's almost like there may be some psychological "perform to seed, or not" thing here.  6, 7, 8 expected to AA, 9, 10 not expected to.  Or, am I like a man with a hammer, and everything looks like a nail?

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4 minutes ago, BerniePragle said:

Your "one tenth of a wrestler" reminds me of this exchange between Andy and Opie:

Sheriff Andy Taylor : Why, I was readin' here just the other day where there's somewhere like four hundred needy boys in this county alone, or... or-or one and a half boys per square mile.
Opie Taylor : There is?
Sheriff Andy Taylor : There sho' is.
Opie Taylor : I never seen one, Pa.
Sheriff Andy Taylor : Never seen one, what?
Opie Taylor : A half a boy.
Sheriff Andy Taylor : Well, it's not really a half a boy. It's a ratio.
Opie Taylor : Horatio who?
Sheriff Andy Taylor : Not Horatio. A ratio. It's mathematics - arithmetic. Look, now, Opie, just... forget... forget that part of it. F-f-forget the part about the half a boy.
Opie Taylor : It's pretty hard to forget a thing like that, Pa.
Sheriff Andy Taylor : Well, try.
Opie Taylor : Poor Horatio.

The big drop from (6,7,8) to (9,10) is also fascinating.  It's almost like there may be some psychological "perform to seed, or not" thing here.  6, 7, 8 expected to AA, 9, 10 not expected to.  Or, am I like a man with a hammer, and everything looks like a nail?

I was thinking King Solomon could get involved.

Or maybe Kemerer's good shoulder AA's, but not his other one?

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10 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

 

By the way, I found it interesting that there is virtually no difference in the probability of AAing for the 6, 7, and 8 seeds. Same for 9 and 10.

I mentioned this was one of the more interesting aspects of your data in the other thread. 

 

I wonder if this is due to how seeding used to be done-where if two wrestlers were close together in seeding they would flip them based off of head to head results. Or maybe the seeding criteria (both past and present)  is fairly good at identifying the best wrester, upsets in general are rare, so the odds of a 9-8 upset is similar to 10-7...Or maybe the whole difference is an artifact and after enough years you will get close to a Gausian distribution.  

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On 3/16/2022 at 9:44 AM, Husker_Du said:

thanks!

Northwestern and Nebraska are your surprise outperformers in the AA expectations sweepstakes. Nebraska was really impressive, doubling their expected AA's.

All but three schools finished within +/- 1 AA from expectations.

Because the original list was cut off at 8 entrants, we missed out on ASU. They had 7 entrants and 5 of them AA. Strong.

Also not making the original list, but performing well were tOSU (OSU of the MidWest) and OSU of the West (Oregon State) with 4 AA's.

image.png.ff1571f8763640c2a83093762bf6a1d0.png

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8 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Northwestern and Nebraska are your surprise outperformers in the AA expectations sweepstakes. Nebraska was really impressive, doubling their expected AA's.

All but three schools finished within +/- 1 AA from expectations.

Because the original list was cut off at 8 entrants, we missed out on ASU. They had 7 entrants and 5 of them AA. Strong.

Also not making the original list, but performing well were tOSU (OSU of the MidWest) and OSU of the West (Oregon State) with 4 AA's.

image.png.ff1571f8763640c2a83093762bf6a1d0.png

How can your list leave off Oregon State who had finished with 4 AAs placing 4, 7, 8 & 8 from seeds of 8 - 17 - 11 & 11.  Munoz was seeded 6 and ended up making the quarters and going down in the R12.

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6 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

How can your list leave off Oregon State who had finished with 4 AAs placing 4, 7, 8 & 8 from seeds of 8 - 17 - 11 & 11.  Munoz was seeded 6 and ended up making the quarters and going down in the R12.

It wasn't my list. Jimmy C made the original list to vote on, I just fleshed it out with data. Because Oregon State finished with four, I added them to my description preceeding the data table along with Ohio State. I think Jimmy created his original list based on having 9 or 10 entrants.

Edited by Wrestleknownothing

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