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Mohammer

Will never lose another college match again

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3 minutes ago, wrestlingnerd said:

Unlikely is too mild a word. JB was 23 when he made that kind of leap, and it wasn’t against a guy of Dake’s caliber. He’s not really that comparable to a 21 year old O’Toole beating Dake. 
 

Gable, Snyder, and Cejudo are, but remember Snyder and Cejudo dedicated their most formative years to freestyle, and Cejudo did so exclusively. They were more like the European prodigies that pop up every few years to win world medals than traditional American folkstyle-focused college kids. O’Toole’s best style is still folkstyle. 

O’Toole could be the guy in 2028. I thought Kharchla was the better freestyle prospect for 74 kg but am now leaning more towards O’Toole, who is improving almost every time I see him while Kharchla arguably didn’t at all this year. 

If you were to put odds on a Dake/O’toole match in 2023 what would you have them at? How about 2024? 

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I should also note that if O’Toole is going to be our  Olympic rep in two years, he’ll likely have to get through both JB and Dake, with one of them rested and best of 3, with Nolf possibly in there instead of one of those two. I don’t see it at all, and not because of O’Toole’s age. I don’t think his freestyle skills will evolve that miuch when he’s still focused on folkstyle most of the year. 

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43 minutes ago, 4awrestler said:


Do you think Lewis can make it back down to 74kg? I thought he looked huge for 174


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He did look massive.  He isn't sniffing a spot at 79 for Worlds or 86 for Oly, though.  His best chance is 74kg.

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30 minutes ago, wrestlingnerd said:

Around 5% next year and 10% in 2024. 

Ok then it’s just semantics. I’d say maybe 10 percent next year and 15-20 percent in 2024. But I don’t think something that has a 5 % chance of happening as lunacy. 

 

To give an example of this...Here are the 2022 world series odds.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/2022-world-series-odds

If you predicted the Red Sox, Angels, Cardinals or Giants (all of whom are ~20-1) to win the world series, it's unlikely but far from lunacy.  

Edited by Billyhoyle

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1 hour ago, goStanford18 said:

Snyder’s leap was incredible. Pinned in March by Gadson. Beat everyone at the trials and dethroned the defending World Champ in the fall.


I don’t predict O’Toole taking out Nolf or IMar this year if they make their way to 74kg (are they staying at 79?), but wouldn’t be too surprised if he did. I’d like to see O’Toole vs. Carr. 
 

I have no idea how Deakin makes 70kg, but I’m guessing he’ll challenge Green/Oliver/Retherford instead of Dake and co. 

Sigh.  It wasn’t a leap it was just a brutal cut

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1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

He did look massive.  He isn't sniffing a spot at 79 for Worlds or 86 for Oly, though.  His best chance is 74kg.

I think either finalist is going to be closer at 79 than you think.

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Somehow Carr is off this list when a few day ago many would have him near top of the list.

Still remember a sure fire "4Timer" with all the hoopla accompanying him at The Big Dance - when Mark Schultz rained on his Parade and kept him from getting his 3rd NCAA Title.

Remember well Dan Gable's final Collegiate match as well as Karelin's final Olympic appearance. As Yogi Berra said..., "It ain't over til it's over".

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10 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

O Toole

Brooks

RBY

Starocci

Yianni

 

I think most people said that about Brooks (edit: and probably Carr) after last year too.  You never know…. And would probably still give Fix a chance against RBY if he gets another rematch.

So is the assumption that Kharchla is moving up?  We’re not giving Hamiti a chance against O’Toole?

Edited by 1032004

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9 hours ago, wrestlingnerd said:

Unlikely is too mild a word. JB was 23 when he made that kind of leap, and it wasn’t against a guy of Dake’s caliber. He’s not really that comparable to a 21 year old O’Toole beating Dake. 
 

Gable, Snyder, and Cejudo are, but remember Snyder and Cejudo dedicated their most formative years to freestyle, and Cejudo did so exclusively. They were more like the European prodigies that pop up every few years to win world medals than traditional American folkstyle-focused college kids. O’Toole’s best style is still folkstyle. 

O’Toole could be the guy in 2028. I thought Kharchla was the better freestyle prospect for 74 kg but am now leaning more towards O’Toole, who is improving almost every time I see him while Kharchla arguably didn’t at all this year. 

It has happened quite  a few times in the past where guys burst on to the scenes and took out fellow Americans that no one thought they would (Les Gutches beating 3X Gold medalist and defending World and Olympic Champ KJ) or had great success against foreign completion their 1st time out  (ie Tom and Terry Brands or B Slay)  - I would never predict that a young stud like O'Toole or Carr will make a huge leap and take out proven guys like Dake or JB but if it did happen it surely isn't unprecedented.

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10 hours ago, Billyhoyle said:

Who thought Snyder would beat Varner when he did? I agree it’s not likely, but it is far from unprecedented. 

I picked it because I was tired of Varner trying to win every match by 1 takedown at most. 

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36 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I think most people said that about Brooks (edit: and probably Carr) after last year too.  You never know…. And would probably still give Fix a chance against RBY if he gets another rematch.

So is the assumption that Kharchla is moving up?  We’re not giving Hamiti a chance against O’Toole?

The guy with the best chance against O Toole might be Meyer Shapiro. 

Fix is great. World silver. Two matches and he can't even touch RBY's knee. I will pick RBY every time.

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7 minutes ago, Mphillips said:

Paddy was up 3-2 with twenty seconds. Levi got a td and NF to win 8-3. It was certainly close. 

Well ok then, I stand corrected.

Edited by gromit

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Is Mekhi Lewis done? He was so close to Starocci that I would think if they were to a few more times, Lewis wins at least one

I thought athletically Lewis had the best chance to beat starocci, but he gassed so bad it’ll need to be addressed before the next time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Jim L said:

Is Mekhi Lewis done? He was so close to Starocci that I would think if they were to a few more times, Lewis wins at least one

I disagree.  I think the gap widens every time.  Starr is just... next level and cerebral beyond compare to every returning 174lbers.

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