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Wrestleknownothing

Iowa is the most dominant team since 2008

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2 hours ago, PSUSMC said:

How can this be?   DI wrestling didn't begin until 2009-2010!

and Iowa Wrestling did not begin until 1972.

But, make it fair and use Penn State only after Cael became head coach. How do your figures stack up then?

Edited by Casper

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37 minutes ago, Fishbane said:

Averaging the team score is probably a better measure of performance than averaging rank.

BestTeam2008-2022.png.b493f53357e32e57c39c665eabd4e070.png

My measure is clearly a bad measure (and a joke), but averaging totals is not necessarily the way to look at it either. Averaging implies that points (or titles) earned in a prior year can offset deficits in a different. For example, if a team finished first and third in consecutive years, they averaged second even though they never finished second. It is really about counting titles. My math was an example of how not to look at things. As my dad used to say, figures never lie, but liars always figure.

But in this case, average points scored clearly correlates with titles won, and is a better measure.

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3 hours ago, Billyhoyle said:

Go with median rather than mean. 

The median finish between 2008 and 2022 for Iowa and PSU is third (Iowa = 3) and first (PSU = 1), respectively.

Edited by Icemeister

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Obviously 2008-2010 make a monumental, statistical difference.  Iowa won all 3 years and that same time frame had 3 out of the 4 worst finishes for PSU and to the worst 2 by a significant margin.  I actually did the same breakdown(also including tOSU, OkState and Cornell) on HR a couple of days ago, except I included 2007, because that was Brands first year at Iowa.  The best/fairest way to do it, would be to simply take Iowa States finishes for(2007), 2008 and 2009, since those were Cael coached teams.  In so doing, they move ahead of Iowa.

Here is that post:

 

So here are the FLAT OUT UNDENIABLE NUMBERS: (with the 3 years Sanderson was at ISU in parenthesis)

-------------Iowa-------------PSU------------tOSU-------------OkState---------------Cornell
2007:------8th--------------11th(2nd)------10th----------------5th--------------------12th
2008:------1st---------------3rd(5th)-------2nd-----------------5th---------------------9th
2009:------1st---------------17th(3rd)------2nd----------------16th---------------------5th
2010:-------1st---------------9th-------------8th-----------------6th---------------------2nd
2011:--------3rd--------------1st--------------29th---------------4th---------------------2nd
2012:-------3rd--------------1st---------------5th----------------6th----------------------4th
2013:-------4th--------------1st---------------6th----------------2nd---------------------5th
2014:-------4th--------------1st---------------6th----------------3rd---------------------7th
2015:-------2nd--------------6th--------------1st-----------------7th---------------------5th
2016:-------5th(penalty)--1st---------------3rd-----------------2nd--------------------7th
2017:-------4th--------------1st---------------2nd-----------------3rd--------------------8th
2018:-------3rd--------------1st---------------2nd-----------------13th-------------------7th
2019:-------4th--------------1st---------------2nd-----------------3rd--------------------7th
2020: Covid-clear 1st----4th at B1G------3rd at B1G--------1st Big 12-------------2nd EIWA
2021:-------1st---------------2nd--------------9th----------------3rd---------------------Covid
2022:-------3rd--------------1st---------------13th----------------14th--------------------7th
______________________________________________________________________________________________
--------47/15=3.133---------57/15=3.8------103/15=6.867----92/15=6.2------------89/14=6.357

To be fair to Sanderson taking his ISU numbers instead of the PSU 2007-2009 would change it to 40/15=2.667

There is NO DOUBT that PSU is FAR AHEAD since Sanderson took over. But, again, NO OTHER team is even close to Iowa over that timeframe. Also, don't forget, Iowa would almost undoubtedly be even farther ahead if not for Covid stealing the 2020 NCAA tournament!

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Also, Iowa gets summarily punished in any breakdown for 2020 getting shutdown, while it almost certainly benefits PSU coming off a 4th place finish at B1G's.  There was a strong possibility they would have had one of their top 3 worst finishes that year.

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34 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

Also, Iowa gets summarily punished in any breakdown for 2020 getting shutdown, while it almost certainly benefits PSU coming off a 4th place finish at B1G's.  There was a strong possibility they would have had one of their top 3 worst finishes that year.

Vincenzo Joseph was asked who would have won in 2020 and he said Penn State. I will take his word for it. He would know. 

 

 

(stirring the Hawkeye pot)

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42 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

There is NO DOUBT that PSU is FAR AHEAD since Sanderson took over. But, again, NO OTHER team is even close to Iowa over that timeframe. Also, don't forget, Iowa would almost undoubtedly be even farther ahead if not for Covid stealing the 2020 NCAA tournament!

Well... Ohio State did beat Iowa at 5 out of the last 7 tournaments.

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24 minutes ago, steamboat_charlie v2 said:

Well... Ohio State did beat Iowa at 5 out of the last 7 tournaments.

They had a GREAT 5 year stretch.  There is zero doubt of that.  I said that in the HR thread.  But, are we supposed to cherry pick numbers?  The last 3 years where tOSU took 3rd at B1Gs and 9th and 13th at NCAA's the subsequent seasons, really shouldn't hold any weight?  To counter that, Iowa has been WAY further ahead of tOSU the past 3 years, than tOSU has ever been ahead of Iowa.  

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38 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Vincenzo Joseph was asked who would have won in 2020 and he said Penn State. I will take his word for it. He would know. 

 

 

(stirring the Hawkeye pot)

Come on.  Jon Jansen is a local radio host that used to play MI football and went on to have a great career in the NFL.  He picked Michigan to beat Georgia rather easily.  Needless to say, they got DESTROYED.  

He wasn't even playing for the team anymore and he still picked them.  You think guys on even MSU's team would say they are going to get whipped going into NCAA's?

 

Now, I do like the attempt at stirring the pot.  It was a very solid attempt.  One of your best, in fact!

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6 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

Come on.  Jon Jansen is a local radio host that used to play MI football and went on to have a great career in the NFL.  He picked Michigan to beat Georgia rather easily.  Needless to say, they got DESTROYED.  

He wasn't even playing for the team anymore and he still picked them.  You think guys on even MSU's team would say they are going to get whipped going into NCAA's?

 

Now, I do like the attempt at stirring the pot.  It was a very solid attempt.  One of your best, in fact!

2020 is a fantasy tournament. Totally up for grabs!

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1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

 My measure is clearly a bad measure (and a joke), but averaging totals is not necessarily the way to look at it either. Averaging implies that points (or titles) earned in a prior year can offset deficits in a different. For example, if a team finished first and third in consecutive years, they averaged second even though they never finished second. It is really about counting titles. My math was an example of how not to look at things. As my dad used to say, figures never lie, but liars always figure.

But in this case, average points scored clearly correlates with titles won, and is a better measure.

I get that a bunch of top 5 place finishes will never replace a national title and that averaging either rank or team points could miss that.  Still team points should correlate better with just about every significant measure of success at the national tournament because individual performances acrue it and the total determines the team rank.  It is also more useful comparing across years.

Take 2009 Iowa which won nationals with 96.5 team points and 2017 Iowa which finished 4th with 97 team points.  Which team had the better performance at the national tournament?  Which produced more individual champs/AAs?  In 2009 Iowa had 0 national champs and 5 AAs (2, 3, 4, 4, 7) and in 2017 they had 1 national champ and 5 AAs (1, 3, 3, 3, 4).  Using rank 2017 is a below average Iowa squad when looking at team point production they are above average probably a better team (or at least performed better at the national tournament) than 2009 Iowa.  In fact the edge is more than it would seem by the 0.5 team point difference as a change to the team scoring in 2013 means the 2009 team received 6ish points they would not have received under the new system.  2017 Iowa was better they just faced better teams.  Rank is a relateive measure at a particular tournament, but team score is better absolute measurement.

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3 hours ago, MSU158 said:

But, are we supposed to cherry pick numbers?   

Yes, we're supposed to manipulate the numbers to show our favorite  team in the best possible light.  It's even OK to fudge the numbers when necessary.

Really MSU, you've been posting here for years. I'm surprised you'd ask such a question. 

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22 minutes ago, HurricaneWrestling2 said:

Yes, we're supposed to manipulate the numbers to show our favorite  team in the best possible light.  It's even OK to fudge the numbers when necessary.

Really MSU, you've been posting here for years. I'm surprised you'd ask such a question. 

So, you are a tOSU fan now? ;)

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4 hours ago, MSU158 said:

They had a GREAT 5 year stretch.  There is zero doubt of that.  I said that in the HR thread.  But, are we supposed to cherry pick numbers?  The last 3 years where tOSU took 3rd at B1Gs and 9th and 13th at NCAA's the subsequent seasons, really shouldn't hold any weight?  To counter that, Iowa has been WAY further ahead of tOSU the past 3 years, than tOSU has ever been ahead of Iowa.  

Torture the numbers until they confess.

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2 hours ago, Fishbane said:

I get that a bunch of top 5 place finishes will never replace a national title and that averaging either rank or team points could miss that.  Still team points should correlate better with just about every significant measure of success at the national tournament because individual performances acrue it and the total determines the team rank.  It is also more useful comparing across years.

Take 2009 Iowa which won nationals with 96.5 team points and 2017 Iowa which finished 4th with 97 team points.  Which team had the better performance at the national tournament?  Which produced more individual champs/AAs?  In 2009 Iowa had 0 national champs and 5 AAs (2, 3, 4, 4, 7) and in 2017 they had 1 national champ and 5 AAs (1, 3, 3, 3, 4).  Using rank 2017 is a below average Iowa squad when looking at team point production they are above average probably a better team (or at least performed better at the national tournament) than 2009 Iowa.  In fact the edge is more than it would seem by the 0.5 team point difference as a change to the team scoring in 2013 means the 2009 team received 6ish points they would not have received under the new system.  2017 Iowa was better they just faced better teams.  Rank is a relateive measure at a particular tournament, but team score is better absolute measurement.

But, this doesn't account for the overall level of the field in those weight classes where Iowa had a wrestler.  Rank is really the only measure that is close to accurate when  comparing  teams performance.  Scoring per year doesn't take into account if a David Taylor type has Kyle Dake in his weight class vs the year he beat Hatchett in the Finals.  That makes for a big point disparity between those 2 seasons, when I don't think anyone would actually say Taylor wrestled better the season he won it than the season he lost to Dake.

 

Edited by MSU158

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