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Wrestleknownothing

2022 Bonus Points

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Sitting in the stands this year, it felt like there were fewer bonus points scored than in the other two tournaments I have attended.

Turns out that as my gut grows, it also gets smarter.

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As a caveat, I backed into bonus points using all points scored less advancement and placement points. For 2009 - 2012, I included the extra pigtail advancement points. I think I got it right, but ....

My second caveat is that when I went through the brackets I got 244 for 2022 instead of 244.5, so I have one too many MD and one too few TF. So sue me. I didn't really feel like going back through it to find my error since it has almost no impact on this next part.

Where did the bonus points come form in 2022?

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  • I have no idea if the 2022 distribution of bonus points matches other years, but it strikes me that from a pure occurrence perspective the tech fall is undervalued in the scoring system and the fall is overvalued. In 2022 there were almost 5x falls than TF. Of course, this is somewhat deterministic. If you give more points for the fall, more wrestlers will go for falls. Besides, tech falls are a lot of work. Oh yeah, and chicks dig a pinner. But still, the balance seems off.
  • Meanwhile, the default is massively overvalued. Given that defaulting a match in a dual meet can happen for strategic reasons, it is severely penalized. But in a tournament format, this makes no sense. There is no strategic benefit to defaulting, so there should also be no outsized reward for receiving the default. If I were to recommend one scoring change it would be to either make the default worth zero bonus points, or a half a point at most.
  • Should bonus points ratchet with rounds? A third of all bonus point victories occur in the first round (30.9% of points). A total of zero bonus points were scored in the final. If you get a bonus point against tougher competition, it seems like that should mean something.
  • On the other hand. The 3rd, 5th, and 7th place matches saw some action. They accounted for 6.5% of the points across 4.7% of the matches.

 

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Individual Bonus Points Leaders

There was an 8 way tie at the top with 4 points. Seems low to me, but then so is the tournament total.

  1. Patrick McKee (Minn) #8 seed at 125 (2 majors, 1 pin)
  2. Korbin Myers (VT) #4 @ 133 (2 majors, 1 default)
  3. Jakob Bergeland (Minn) #10 @ 141 (2 majors, 1 pin)
  4. Peyton Robb (Neb) #10 @ 157 (2 pins)
  5. Hayden Hidlay (NCST) #4 @ 174 (2 majors, 1 pin)
  6. Michael O'Malley (Drexel) #8 @ 174 (2 pins)
  7. Cohlton Schultz (ASU) #2 @ 185 (2 pins)
  8. Zach Elam (Mizz) #16 @ 285 (2 pins)

Among the eight, only Cohlton Schultz did all his damage in the Championship bracket.

 

 

 

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Are defaults overvalued? Strong agreement that they are overvalued.

Bonus has always gone down as rounds progress. One, there are fewer matches. Two, opponents are better. They also diminish for each wrestler. That too is generally constant. Bonus are mainly in rounds 1 and 2 on the front and then also earlier rounds on the back. 

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2 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Are defaults overvalued? Strong agreement that they are overvalued.

Bonus has always gone down as rounds progress. One, there are fewer matches. Two, opponents are better. They also diminish for each wrestler. That too is generally constant. Bonus are mainly in rounds 1 and 2 on the front and then also earlier rounds on the back. 

Thanks for the reminder. I was going to adjust for round sizes. Stay tuned.

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It would be an interesting concept to have the points scale with the gravity of the situation and the round like say 2 points for a pin for round 

1 and 2 on the front side , 3 for a pin in quarters , 4 for a pin in the semis, 6-8 for a pin in the finals . 

This would reward performance against much tougher opponents as well as increase the drama for the team race which is much more 

interesting when teams can come back via good performance. 

Say a truly transcendant talent get a pin in the semis or finals , there is a team reward for this . 

 

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21 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

1) Sitting in the stands this year, it felt like there were fewer bonus points scored than in the other two tournaments I have attended.

2)Turns out that as my gut grows, it also gets smarter.

1)  Nothing's better than when the gut feeling and the data line up.  Cool.

2)  That's good to hear.  I'm gonna head to the store and stock up on those half pound Reese Cups.  (I'm getting low on inventory.)

You are VERY good at analyzing data, thinking of what to look for in data, and presenting and explaining what you did and didn't find.  Big respect.

Edited by BerniePragle

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For the three leading teams in 2022

Bonus Point Totals Only      
PSU  16.5    
UM 11.5    
Iowa  9.5    
       
Less MFFs      
PSU 16.5    
UM 9.5    
Iowa 7.5    
       
Frontside/Backside/MFFs Front Consolations MFFs
PSU 15.5 1 0
UM 7.5 2 2
Iowa 6.5 1 2
       
Total Matches Wrestled Front Back Total
PSU 33 8 41
UM 31 17 48
Iowa 27 22 49
       

You can see that Iowa and Michigan had back side opportunities and missed them. This has a lot to do with the team performing to ability or not.

The difference between Iowa and Penn State is the difference of one additional AA wrestler. Iowa had nearly 20 percent more matches with nearly 3x the matches on the easier back side and got only 7.5 earned bonus pts after subtracting for MFF.

PSU got 16.5 and all but 1 pt came on the tougher front side, so it is easy to see that Penn State is taking advantage of their ability to dominate while Iowa is not. 

EDIT: This dynamic has played out in most years that PSU has won. It is probably also true when any other team wins. Win, advance, score a lot of points, and the rest takes care of itself. PSU has an extra invisible "bonus point" All American in most years

Edited by TBar1977

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The data normalized for numbers of matches per round.

image.png.5d95a1641deb7ad1da93f5d85dfd5848.png

What changed?

  • The value of defaults goes up a lot. Makes sense. No one defaults in the first round (cough, cough, Suriano).
  • The distribution across rounds becomes more even. And the 3rd, 5th and 7th place matches still stand out.
  • The consolation pigtail was must see TV. And it now stands out as such.

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12 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

For the three leading teams in 2022

Bonus Point Totals Only      
PSU  16.5    
UM 11.5    
Iowa  9.5    
       
Less MFFs      
PSU 16.5    
UM 9.5    
Iowa 7.5    
       
Frontside/Backside/MFFs Front Consolations MFFs
PSU 15.5 1 0
UM 7.5 2 2
Iowa 6.5 1 2
       
Total Matches Wrestled Front Back Total
PSU 33 8 41
UM 31 17 48
Iowa 27 22 49
       

You can see that Iowa and Michigan had back side opportunities and missed them. This has a lot to do with the team performing to ability or not.

The difference between Iowa and Penn State is the difference of one additional AA wrestler. Iowa had nearly 20 percent more matches with nearly 3x the matches on the easier back side and got only 7.5 earned bonus pts after subtracting for MFF.

PSU got 16.5 and all but 1 pt came on the tougher front side, so it is easy to see that Penn State is taking advantage of their ability to dominate while Iowa is not. 

I think you are playing a little fast and loose here when you say "taking advantage of their ability to dominate".

Iowa had lower seeds than PSU. They thus had harder early matches. They should be expected to score fewer bonus points.

Injuries are a real thing too. I know there was a lot of "are they really injured" talk on this board after B1G, but a guy like Eierman is expected to have significant bonus points when healthy. And I don't think even the most ardent PSU fan can argue about what was happening with his knee. It was hard to watch in his match against Micic. Ditto Kemerer. And to a lesser degree (so maybe not relevant) Cass. None of these are value statements. They are just facts.

 

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1 minute ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I think you are playing a little fast and loose here when you say "taking advantage of their ability to dominate".

Iowa had lower seeds than PSU. They thus had harder early matches. They should be expected to score fewer bonus points.

Injuries are a real thing too. I know there was a lot of "are they really injured" talk on this board after B1G, but a guy like Eierman is expected to have significant bonus points when healthy. And I don't think even the most ardent PSU fan can argue about what was happening with his knee. It was hard to watch in his match against Micic. Ditto Kemerer. And to a lesser degree (so maybe not relevant) Cass. None of these are value statements. They are just facts.

 

Both points regarding Iowa are true. The injury thing was real. I do think for both Iowa and Michigan they could have scored more bonus on the backside than they did. PSU had a barbell type team. 6 guys scored almost all the points, and all of their matches except 1 were on the harder front side. Their one back side pt came, if I recall, from Brady Berge. 

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